--- title: "Daily Market Report — 2026-11-04" date: 2026-11-04 canonical: "https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/reports/2026-11-04" markdown: "https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/reports/2026-11-04.md" language: en generated_by: "Artificial intelligence (multi-agent system)" disclaimer: "Not investment advice." updated: "2026-11-04T05:57:16+03:00" symbols: [AEFES, AKBNK, ASELS, ASTOR, BIMAS, EKGYO, ENKAI, EREGL, FROTO, GARAN, GUBRF, ISCTR, KCHOL, KRDMD, MGROS, PETKM, PGSUS, SAHOL, SASA, SISE, TAVHL, TCELL, THYAO, TOASO, TRALT, TRMET, TTKOM, TUPRS, VAKBN, YKBNK] data: "https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/ticker.json" machine_translated: true --- > This file is a raw Markdown copy for LLM/agent consumption; human version: # Daily Market Report — 2026-11-04 BIST 30 basket — last 19 days -15.01% Equal-weighted basket of 30 stocks, normalized to the first seen price. ## 📊 Daily Dashboard — BIST 30 · 30/30 stocks · 4 November 2026, Wednesday, 05:57 (TSİ) - XU030 Index: 13,754.46 +0.42% - XU030 Previous Close: 13,696.64 - XU100: 11,023.55 +0.56% - XU030 in USD Terms: +0.35% - BIST 30 Basket: +0.70% - Rising / Falling: 20 / 10 - $/TL: 50.02 - Gram Gold: 6,347 TL - Signal (BUY / SELL): 0 / 30 - ▲ Top gainers: PGSUS +4.09% • SISE +3.11% • PETKM +2.97% - ▼ Top losers: YKBNK -2.64% • AKBNK -1.66% • TOASO -1.27% - 📣 Signal distribution: STRONG BUY 0 · BUY 0 · NEUTRAL 0 · SELL 22 · STRONG SELL 8 - 🏷️ Sector averages: Glass & Ceramics+3.11% • Aviation & Transportation+2.54% • Food & Beverage+2.28% • Metal & Mining+1.72% • Retail+1.36% • Telecom +1.36% • Energy & Petrochemicals+1.29% • Chemicals & Fertilizers +0.22% • Industry (Other) +0.12% • Defense+0.07% • Holdings -0.38% • Banking -0.82% • Automotive -1.16% • Real Estate -1.19% | # | Stock | Last (TL) | Daily | 60 Days | Channel | Signal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | [PGSUS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/PGSUS.md) | 127,20 | +4,09% | -15.9% | 56% | SELL | | 2 | [SISE](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/SISE.md) | 34,46 | +3,11% | -16.9% | 42% | SELL | | 3 | [PETKM](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/PETKM.md) | 17,00 | +2,97% | -9.4% | 20% | STRONG SELL | | 4 | [EREGL](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/EREGL.md) | 30,90 | +2,93% | -16.2% | 6% | SELL | | 5 | [AEFES](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/AEFES.md) | 16,61 | +2,28% | -22.8% | 41% | SELL | | 6 | [TCELL](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TCELL.md) | 93,80 | +2,01% | -10.9% | 52% | SELL | | 7 | [TAVHL](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TAVHL.md) | 267,25 | +2,00% | -1.6% | 52% | SELL | | 8 | [MGROS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/MGROS.md) | 435,50 | +1,75% | -33.8% | 42% | SELL | | 9 | [ASTOR](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/ASTOR.md) | 155,50 | +1,63% | -48.6% | 72% | SELL | | 10 | [THYAO](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/THYAO.md) | 265,00 | +1,53% | -12.5% | 54% | SELL | | 11 | [SASA](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/SASA.md) | 1,50 | +1,35% | -35.6% | 39% | SELL | | 12 | [KRDMD](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/KRDMD.md) | 38,34 | +1,11% | -4.4% | 24% | SELL | | 13 | [TRMET](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TRMET.md) | 100,00 | +1,11% | -28.4% | 12% | SELL | | 14 | [BIMAS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/BIMAS.md) | 359,50 | +0,98% | -5.9% | 15% | SELL | | 15 | [TTKOM](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TTKOM.md) | 47,56 | +0,72% | -15.1% | 30% | SELL | | 16 | [VAKBN](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/VAKBN.md) | 29,80 | +0,68% | +1.2% | 10% | STRONG SELL | | 17 | [TUPRS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TUPRS.md) | 338,25 | +0,37% | +1.3% | 6% | STRONG SELL | | 18 | [ENKAI](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/ENKAI.md) | 80,20 | +0,19% | -7.0% | 64% | SELL | | 19 | [TRALT](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TRALT.md) | 34,18 | +0,12% | -35.7% | 22% | SELL | | 20 | [ASELS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/ASELS.md) | 342,50 | +0,07% | -3.9% | 60% | SELL | | 21 | [ISCTR](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/ISCTR.md) | 12,31 | -0,08% | +1.6% | 30% | SELL | | 22 | [KCHOL](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/KCHOL.md) | 195,50 | -0,10% | -4.1% | 19% | STRONG SELL | | 23 | [GARAN](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/GARAN.md) | 128,80 | -0,39% | +1.7% | 46% | SELL | | 24 | [SAHOL](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/SAHOL.md) | 82,45 | -0,66% | -6.8% | 28% | STRONG SELL | | 25 | [GUBRF](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/GUBRF.md) | 272,75 | -0,91% | -37.6% | 14% | SELL | | 26 | [FROTO](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/FROTO.md) | 66,10 | -1,05% | -14.6% | 28% | STRONG SELL | | 27 | [EKGYO](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/EKGYO.md) | 16,57 | -1,19% | -7.0% | 11% | STRONG SELL | | 28 | [TOASO](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TOASO.md) | 218,50 | -1,27% | -17.3% | 17% | SELL | | 29 | [AKBNK](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/AKBNK.md) | 62,25 | -1,66% | -6.8% | 14% | SELL | | 30 | [YKBNK](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/YKBNK.md) | 34,70 | -2,64% | +2.1% | 27% | STRONG SELL | Table is compiled from technical scans of the site; for educational purposes, not investment advice. ### 📅 Daily Agenda — Economic Data Announcements #### 04.11 (2026-11-04) | Time | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10:00 | EU | Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash — Core Inflation Rate annual preliminary estimate | 2,50 | 2,50 | | 10:00 | EU | Core Inflation Rate MoM Flash — Core Inflation Rate Monthly Flash Estimate | — | — | | 10:00 | EU 🔴 | Inflation Rate YoY Flash — Inflation Rate annual preliminary estimate | 4,00 | 3,80 | | 12:00 | US | MBA 5/1 ARM Contract Rate | — | — | | 12:00 | US | MBA 5/1 ARM Effective Rate | — | — | | 12:00 | US | MBA 15-Year Mortgage Contract Rate | — | — | | 12:00 | US | MBA 15-Year Mortgage Effective Rate | — | — | | 12:00 | US | MBA 15-Year Mortgage Points | — | — | | 12:00 | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | — | — | | 12:00 | US | MBA 5/1 ARM Points | — | — | | 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change — ADP Employment Change | 69,00 | 90,00 | | 13:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance — Goods Trade Balance | — | -132,07 | | 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -108,00 | -105,60 | | 13:30 | US | Exports | — | 315,18 | 🔴 = high-impact data. Source: TradingView economic calendar; times are in TR time. [Economic Calendar Guide →](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/calendar.md) ## Summary - In the BIST 30 scan, 20 of 30 stocks rose, 10 fell. - The day's strongest stock PGSUS (+4.09%); weakest YKBNK (-2.64%). - Signal distribution: STRONG BUY 0 · BUY 0 · NEUTRAL 0 · SELL 22 · STRONG SELL 8. - Sector leader Cam & Seramik (+3.11%); weakest sector Gayrimenkul (-1.19%). - Model portfolio's cash weight 42%. ## 1. Day's Data (summary) | Indicator | Value | | --- | --- | | Date | 4 Kasım 2026, Çarşamba, saat 05:57 | | BIST 30 (XU030) last close | 13,754.46 | | BIST 30 previous close | 13,696.64 | | BIST 30 daily change | +0,42% | | BIST 100 (XU100) last close | 11,023.55 | | BIST 100 previous close | 10,961.67 | | BIST 100 daily change | +0,56% | | USD/TRY | 50,02 ( previous 49,99, daily +0,07%) | | BIST 30 daily performance in dollar terms | +0,35% | ## 2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism 4 Kasım 2026, saat 05:25 itibarıyla — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 13,754.46; previous close 13,696.64 (daily +0%.42); dollar-based daily performance +0%.35. The index's TL-based return, despite the flat course of USD/TRY at the 50.02 level (+0.07%), shows that the dollar-based return was realized only 0.07 points above. This table shows that the rise stems not from exchange rate support but from limited local risk appetite; however, XU100's stronger close with +0%.56 indicates that the broad market performed better than index-heavy stocks. ### Transmission Mechanism: Technical Weakness Despite Index Rise The positive appearance at the day's close creates a contradiction with the internal signal distribution. In the technical scan, while all 30 stocks are in SELL or STRONG SELL signals, in oscillator votes [ENKAI](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/ENKAI.md) ( 11 buy/8 sell) constitutes the only example of positive divergence. This situation shows that the index's rise stems not from a broad-based buying wave but from a selective move carried by a limited number of stocks ([PGSUS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/PGSUS.md) +4.09%, [EREGL](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/EREGL.md) +% 2.93) shows. The compression of the RSI band in the 28–51 range and MACD remaining in negative territory across all stocks supports that momentum is still in favor of sellers; therefore, that the current rise carries a technical correction nature. StochK's values below 25 ([TUPRS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TUPRS.md) 7.6; [SASA](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/SASA.md) 8.9; [BIMAS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/BIMAS.md) 10.5) are generating short-term bottom signals; however, these signals do not count as sufficient proof for buying unless confirmed by ADX trend strength. ### Sectoral Divergence and Stock Impact On a day when aviation and telecom stocks stood out, [PGSUS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/PGSUS.md)' un's leadership with +4%.09 and ADX 47.4 trend strength show that counter-trend purchases directed at the sector have gained momentum. Conversely, the persistence of STRONG SELL signals in banking and [YKBNK](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/YKBNK.md)' nın's representation of sector weakness with -2%.64 reveals that high-weight financial stocks in the index did not contribute to the rise. [EREGL](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/EREGL.md)' nin's reaction from bottom zone indicators such as channel 6% and StochK 10.1 with a +2%.93 rise creates an early but monitorable signal for gradual buying in the iron-steel side. [TUPRS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TUPRS.md)' un's receipt of STRONG SELL in channel 6% despite being in oversold territory keeps the question of whether it's a stock-specific bottom or trend continuation on the agenda; this contradiction shows that for the energy group, price action within the channel will be decisive for direction determination. ### Risk and Validity Conditions In the current table, the base scenario is a flat-strong course conditional on the index holding above the 13.696 level; however, a permanent close below this level brings the correction scenario to the agenda. Although USD/TRY's flatness at the 50.02 level provides a positive ground for TL assets, the exchange rate gaining permanence above 50 may limit counter-trend purchases especially in aviation and industrial stocks by increasing imported input costs. The sales-weighted distribution in technical indicators points to the need for the number of rising stocks to expand and for MACD to exit negative territory for the sustainability of the index rise; otherwise, the current close may be tested with selling pressure on the next trading day. ## 3. Macro Outlook and News Flow Although global risk appetite has slightly recovered after US election tension and the Fed interest rate decision, BIST 30's dollar-based return (+0.35%) remaining below the index's TL return (0.42%) shows that foreign portfolio inflows have not yet intensified. USD/TRY remaining almost fixed at the 50.02 level (daily +0.07%) and DXY holding at the 101.86 level indicate that the exchange rate risk premium still has a place in market pricing; in this environment, TL asset attractiveness is in a fragile balance dependent on real interest rate expectations. On the Turkey side, September inflation data (TÜFE annual 29.73%, core annual 28.70%) falling below forecasts prepared the ground for the CBRT to lower the policy rate to 36% in its October meeting and give a "further easing probability low" signal. However, the 36% policy rate's real return relative to annual inflation is in positive territory according to the ex-post Fisher approach (approximately +4.8%); the rise in credit growth from annual 35.29% to 36.32% and the rise in consumer credit interest rate to 64.74% show that volume in the credit channel is still expanding but cost is rising rapidly; this also macro-justifies the fragile soft landing of domestic demand and the banking sector's weak performance under net interest margin (NIM) pressure ([YKBNK](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/YKBNK.md) -2.64%, [AKBNK](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/AKBNK.md) selling pressure) macro-justifies. On the external demand side, October exports rising to 25.9 billion dollars and industrial production's monthly -1.0%, annual -1.86% contraction in August give contradictory signals: while export volume holds, production is weakening, suggesting inventory building or import input intensity eroding margins. The current account surplus of 4.05 billion dollars in August (above the 3.6 billion dollar forecast), yet the annual current account deficit persisting at the 42.1 billion dollar level and foreign exchange reserves falling weekly from 62.15 to 59.04 billion dollars, maintain external balance fragility and create a structural risk that makes it difficult for the exchange rate to fall below 50; this risk, [TUPRS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TUPRS.md) in import-dependent stocks like, despite the formation of the "Strong Sell" signal below the channel (6%), keeps the bottom debate alive. In the news flow, [ASELSAN](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/ASELS.md)' 's 1.1 milyar dolarlık contract and quarter profit exceeding expectations, defense-aviation theme's ([PGSUS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/PGSUS.md) +4.09%, [THYAO](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/THYAO.md), [TCELL](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TCELL.md)) shows that the only strong fundamental driver behind the index's relatively positive close. Although the 24-month maturity, 6-month grace period credit packages after the flood disaster and the rise of tourism revenues to 25.5 milyar dolara in Q3'te contribute positively to the real sector cash flow, inflation's general prevalence has decreased (Şimşek statement) but in an environment where the core remains sticky, it is necessary to wait at least one more quarter for the interest rate cut bet to turn into profit revision in bank stocks. ## 4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks ### [PGSUS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/PGSUS.md) and[ENKAI](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/ENKAI.md): Trend Strength and Divergence The day's most striking technical signal, reaching 127.20 TL'ye with a 4.09% rise [Pegasus (company)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/PGSUS.md)' TA ([PGSUS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/PGSUS.md)) is observed. While the ADX indicator's 47.45 level confirms that the current move is in a strong trend, the RSI's 44.4 not yet approaching the overbought zone indicates that reactive purchases may continue in the short term. However, the oscillator votes being balanced at 7 buy/12 sell and the MACD staying in negative territory at -5.57 requires this rise to be evaluated as a technical correction for now. On the other hand [ENKAI](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/ENKAI.md), In a stock position producing the only BUY signal on an oscillator basis with 11 buy/8 sell votes. RSI's 51.07 holding above the neutral zone and being in a strong position with channel 64% makes the stock stand out with its relatively resistant structure within the index. ADX's 33.56 maintaining trend strength, [ENKAI](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/ENKAI.md)' increases the likelihood of finding support at current levels. #### [EREGL](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/EREGL.md) and[TUPRS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TUPRS.md): Conflicting Signals in the Bottom Region [Ereğli Demir Çelik (company)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/EREGL.md) ( EREGL), rising 2.93% to 30.90 TL'ye, standing out as a reaction candidate from the oversold zone with channel 6% and StochK 10.08. RSI's 33.73 hovering near the bottom region strengthens the possibility of weakening selling pressure. On the other hand [Tüpraş (company)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TUPRS.md) ( TUPRS) paints a different picture in a similar position. The stock, which generates one of the deepest oversold signals with channel 6% and StochK 7.58, presents a conflicting appearance due to the WT indicator's SELL vote and the overall assessment being STRONG SELL. RSI's 33.28 and CCI20's -138.19 being in deep negative territory, although it sets the stage for a technical reaction, MACD's -11.78 strong negative divergence and ADX's 37.49 indicating the continuation of the trend indicates that the decline has not yet ended. Therefore [TUPRS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TUPRS.md)' TA current levels should be monitored as a critical threshold between bottom search and trend continuation. #### Weakness Deepens in Banking and Holdings On the banking side [Yapı Kredi (bank)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/YKBNK.md) ( YKBNK), falling 2.64% to 34.70 TL'ye, the oscillator votes producing one of the day's weakest signals at 2 buy/20 sell draws attention. [Akbank (company)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/AKBNK.md) ( AKBNK) also has a 2 buy/19 sell vote and with RSI's 37.92 level is in the STRONG SELL zone. The ADX values of the two stocks being 20.48 and 38.99 respectively confirms that the weakness is not just a short-term fluctuation but a sectoral pressure. A similar picture exists in holdings; [Sabancı Holding (company)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/SAHOL.md) ( SAHOL) 4 buy/19 sell vote and [Koç Holding (company)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/KCHOL.md) ( KCHOL) produces a STRONG SELL signal with 3 buy/17 sell votes. [KCHOL](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/KCHOL.md)' Its RSI of 39.42 and ADX of 40.29 indicate that the downtrend continues with strong momentum. This view confirms that selling pressure persists in these two heavily weighted sectors and that the expansion remains limited, despite the index's positive intraday close. #### Valuation Discussion in Oversold Territory [Astor Energy](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/ASTOR.md) ( ASTOR), with a 60-day -48%.6 loss, the stock experiencing the index's deepest decline is at the center of the oversold debate. RSI's 36.66 and channel 72% being in a strong position, although it technically points to reaction potential, the oscillator votes 2 buy/17 sell generating a STRONG SELL signal, showing that the current decline has not found valuation support. Similarly[Gübre Fabrikaları (company)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/GUBRF.md) ( GUBRF) RSI 29.06 and ADX 59.2 indicate a strong downtrend; however, StochK's 12.2 level may create a basis for a short-term technical reaction. The oversold conditions in these stocks could signal the start of a new downwave as well as the possibility that current price levels point to a medium-term bottom area. Therefore, investors wishing to take a position in these stocks need to monitor whether price action tests the channel's lower band and volume support. ## 5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation The current asset sizes in the data set draw an important picture about companies' liquidity and working capital structures. The huge balance sheet scales of holdings attract attention: [Koç Holding (company)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/KCHOL.md) 3.615.15 billion TL and [Sabancı Holding (company)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/SAHOL.md) With 2,790.07 milyar TL in current assets, they represent the largest liquid structures in the portfolio. The balance sheet size of these two holdings could serve as a critical buffer for the index's overall resilience. On the industrial side, however, [Tüpraş (company)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TUPRS.md) 439.48 milyar TL and Ereğli 269.67 milyar TL standing out with, [Turkish Airlines](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/THYAO.md) With 512.19 billion TL in current assets, it is in the position of the most liquid company in the service sector. These data show that working capital adequacy is relatively strong, especially in non-banking sectors. Although scale differences make ratio-based valuation difficult, the relative liquidity positions of some companies are striking. [Pegasus (company)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/PGSUS.md) With 91.42 billion TL in current assets, it appears to have an adequate buffer when the aviation sector's operational cash cycle is taken into account. BİM 152.41 billion TL and [Şişecam (company)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/SISE.md) offers liquidity of similar magnitude in the retail and glass sectors with 151.30 billion TL. On the other hand, Trakya Cam 24.88 billion TL and Türk Metal at the lowest current asset levels with 25.54 billion TL; this situation, where 60-day losses are deepening, Trakya Cam (-% 35.7) indicates that balance sheet flexibility is limited. Astor With 47.91 billion TL in current assets, it maintains its operational liquidity despite the 60-day -48.6% loss; however, this situation suggests that the value loss is more due to pricing than balance sheet weakness. Liquidity risk is becoming more evident in small-scale companies. [Kardemir (company)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/KRDMD.md) 32.40 billion TL and [Petkim (company)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/PETKM.md) With 41.74 billion TL in current assets, it exhibits a more fragile structure against the cyclical fluctuations of the commodity and chemical sectors. Sasa (company) With 42.00 billion TL in current assets, it should be monitored to what extent the current liquidity will meet the investment cycle, taking into account the financing need of capacity investments in the sector. [Gübretaş](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/GUBRF.md) It draws a similar picture with 48.99 billion TL; the 60-day -37.6% loss shows that the margin pressure in the fertilizer sector is reflected in the balance sheet structure. In this group, the ratio of current assets to the sectoral working capital need comes to the fore as an evaluation criterion independent of price movements. Although current asset data does not by itself provide a profitability indicator, Ereğli and[Tüpraş (company)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TUPRS.md) like stocks at low channel levels, shows that the balance sheet size could be a support element. Ereğli with 269.67 milyar TL current assets, can form the fundamental support behind the 2.93% daily increase. [Tüpraş (company)](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TUPRS.md) has the sector's largest liquidity with 439.48 milyar TL; however, a possible narrowing in refinery margins may prevent this balance sheet strength from reflecting in price. Therefore, balance sheet size should not be evaluated as a buy signal on its own, but as a supporting element in case the current technical weakness deepens. ## 6. Risk Management and Scenarios Downside scenario: Despite the index's 0.42% increase, the presence of SELL/STRONG SELL signals in all 30 stocks shows that the current rise has not spread to the base. Especially [YKBNK](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/YKBNK.md) (-% 2.64) and [AKBNK](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/AKBNK.md) (-% 1.66) leading banking selling pressure with [KCHOL](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/KCHOL.md) and[SAHOL](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/SAHOL.md)' the STRONG SELL signals in the indicate that the correction could deepen if the index falls below the previous close at 13,696.64. In this scenario [TUPRS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TUPRS.md) ( StochK 7.6), [SASA](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/SASA.md) ( StochK 8.9) and [BIMAS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/BIMAS.md) ( StochK 10.5) such as DIP BUY signals in stocks in the oversold region should not be considered early confirmation as long as trend strength (ADX) remains high; positions in these stocks should be increased gradually provided RSI settles above 50 and WT signal turns to BUY. Upside scenario: [PGSUS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/PGSUS.md)' un +4.09% being the day's leader and maintaining trend strength with ADX 47.4 shows that bargain hunting in the aviation sector could support the index. [ENKAI](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/ENKAI.md)' nin's sole BUY recommendation on the oscillator (11 buy/8 sell) and relative strength with channel 64% can be evaluated as a defensive anchor in the portfolio. However, the MACD indicator being in negative territory across all stocks shows that volume and selling pressure in banking stocks must cease for the upside move to be sustainable. Provided USD/TRY's flat course at 0.07% and dollar-based return of +0.35% do not create additional currency pressure, persistence above 13,754.46 could carry the short-term target to the 14,000 psychological resistance. Portfolio protection shields: Keeping the cash ratio high in the current table provides flexibility for both downside scenario dips below 13,696.64 and upside scenario [ENKAI](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/ENKAI.md) and[PGSUS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/PGSUS.md) like strong-signaled stocks provides flexibility for gradual entry. In contrast to STRONG SELL votes in banking and holding stocks, [ASTOR](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/ASTOR.md)' un 60-day -48.6% loss and [GUBRF](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/GUBRF.md)' nin -37.6% decline such as stocks experiencing deep value losses, instead of opening new long positions, stop-loss levels for existing positions should be kept tight and channel 6%'s [TUPRS](https://borsa-raporlari.pages.dev/en/stocks/TUPRS.md) It is a priority to wait for the clarification of such contradictory signals. In this framework, the cash/liquidity weight in the portfolio should be maintained in exact alignment with the CASH line in section 7; risk appetite should be increased gradually only when the index makes volume closes above 13.754.46 and SELL votes decrease. ## 7. Recommended Model Portfolio The following model portfolio has been constructed using today's dataset's oscillator votes, technical channel positions, and Pearson correlation coefficients (r). In selection, priority is given to stocks where signal strength aligns with position in the price channel; stocks in the oversold region are only considered when supported by a trend reversal signal (WT). In view of the 30 SELL/GÜÇLÜ SELL votes across the index, portfolio weights are designed with a defensive distribution and a high cash ratio. | Stock | Sector | Weight (%) | Transaction | Base Scenario | Optimistic Scenario | Invalidation Condition | Reason | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ENKAI | Energy & Petrochemicals | 12 | BUY | Channel at 64% position and the sole BUY vote in the oscillator (11 buy/8 sell) with gradual strengthening above the current 80.2 TL level; RSI 51,07 remains in neutral zone preserving upside potential. | If ADX 33,56 shows increasing trend strength and MACD approaches the zero line, the move toward the channel upper band may accelerate. | The scenario weakens if the negative correlation in the 60‑day change (r=-0,67) deepens and the price gives back its last 5‑day 6,30% gain. | The sole BUY signal in the oscillator, the 64% channel position with relative strength, and the 5‑day 6,30% return; the clear superiority of positive momentum relative to the index. | | PGSUS | Aviation & Transportation | 10 | BUY | ADX 47,45 with strong trend and daily 4,09% rise; the 56% channel position and the effort to hold above 127.2 TL form the base scenario. | If StochK 36,68 rises above 50 and CCI20 crosses above zero, the rebound buying could become sustained. | Weakness dominates if the 60‑day loss (r=-0,88) deepens and the price fully retraces its last 5‑day 2,09% increase. | Today's leader, with ADX 47,45 trend strength and position at 56% channel; relative strength in the aviation sector. | | TCELL | Telecom | 9 | BUY | Channel at 52% position and WT=BUY signal; continuation of the 5‑day 3,76% rise above the 93.8 TL level is the base scenario. | If ADX 37,49 maintains trend strength and RSI 45,36 rises above 50, upside momentum increases. | The scenario becomes invalid if the 60‑day negative correlation (r=-0,79) strengthens and the price drops below 90 TL. | WT=BUY signal, channel at 52% and 5‑day 3,76% return; positive divergence relative to the index in the telecom sector. | | SISE | Glass & Ceramics | 8 | BUY | Daily 3,11% rise and channel at 42% position; StochK 24,02 with an attempt to turn from the bottom region forms the base scenario. | If ADX 41,76 shows increasing trend strength and MACD approaches zero from the negative region, the recovery accelerates. | Weakness dominates if the 60‑day loss (r=-0,72) deepens and the price retreats below 33 TL. | Daily strong 3,11% rise, WT=DİPTE AL signal and channel at 42%; rebound potential from the oversold region. | | AEFES | Food & Beverage | 7 | BUY | WT=BUY signal and channel at 41% position; continuation of the 5‑day 5,06% rise above 16,61 TL is the base scenario. | If StochK 23,24 rises above 50 and CCI20 rises from the negative region to zero, the recovery strengthens. | If the 60-day negative correlation (r=-0,75) deepens and the price drops below 16 TL, the scenario weakens. | WT=BUY signal, 5-day 5,06% return and channel 41%; relative strength in the food sector. | | EREGL | Metal & Mining | 6 | BUY | The dip position at channel 6% and the oversold zone with StochK 10,08; the daily 2,93% rise is the start of reactive buying in the base scenario. | If ADX 25,88 rises above 30 and MACD approaches zero from the negative zone, dip confirmation strengthens. | If the 60-day loss (r=-0,67) deepens and the price retreats below 30 TL, the bottom scenario becomes invalid. | The bottom region with channel 6%, StochK 10,08 and WT=BUY AT THE DIP signal; oversold-driven reactive potential. | | THYAO | Aviation & Transportation | 6 | BUY | The channel 54% position and WT=BUY AT THE DIP signal; the continuation of the 5-day 2,61% rise above 265.0 TL is the base scenario. | With the strong trend maintained at ADX 48,34 and RSI 45,19 rising above 50, the rally accelerates. | If the 60-day negative correlation (r=-0,87) deepens and the price drops below 260 TL, the scenario weakens. | Channel 54%, WT=BUY AT THE DIP signal and 5-day 2,61% return; positive divergence in the aviation sector. | | CASH | — | 42 | — | Despite the 30 SELL/STRONG SELL votes in the index, the high cash ratio provides position flexibility in a possible correction scenario. | If XU030 drops below the 13,696 level, the cash ratio can be evaluated gradually. | If the index makes heavy closes above the 13,754.46 level and SELL votes decrease, the cash ratio may remain high. | The SELL-weighted signal distribution across the market and MACD being negative in all stocks justify a defensive stance. | ## Methodology and Terms - Signal (general): Stock-based general technical evaluation (STRONG BUY / BUY / NEUTRAL / SELL / STRONG SELL); seen on the board and in the technical screening table. - Oscillator vote: Individual BUY/SELL votes of indicators such as RSI, StochK, MACD, CCI, WT; given in the format "11 buy/8 sell" and may conflict with the general signal (for example, a stock may diverge positively in oscillator votes while the board signal is SELL). - WT (Wave Trend): short-term cycle (peak/trough) oscillator; generates BUY/SELL signals. - Channel (%N): position of the price within the 60-day regression channel; 0% near the channel bottom (trough area), 100% near the channel top (peak area). - ADX: Average Directional Index; values above 25 indicate a strong trend, values below 20 indicate weak/sideways movement. - r: Pearson correlation coefficient calculated over a 60-day window (trend strength indicator); given in parentheses in the model portfolio table. - CASH: the portion not allocated to stocks in the model portfolio, held for protection. 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