Deep Analysis

1. Market Summary and Overview

Today, the BIST 30 index started the week with a "sharp recovery" signal at the 16.182 resistance level on September 18, 2026. This observed attack in the index is particularly supported by the performance of leading stocks in the energy and retail sectors. However, for the sustainability of this recovery, it is critically important that the 16.182 level is broken decisively with high volume. If this level is surpassed, the upward movement in the index could gain momentum; otherwise, potential pullbacks toward the 16.182 support level could pose a significant risk to portfolios. In the broader market, despite the cautious and high cash-weighted approach of recent weeks, the technical recovery signals emerging in certain sectors are being considered as harbingers of a micro-structural change in the fundamental perspective of fund management. In this context, the most critical developments that will determine market direction will be global central bank policies, geopolitical risks, and the trajectory of energy prices.

2. Sector-Based Evaluation

When considering signal intensity and sector performance, a clear divergence is observed in the overall market. The Energy and Petrochemical sector, led by TUPRS (Tüpraş), shows the strongest performance. Although the company's overall signal is at "BUY" level, it is receiving a "STRONG BUY" signal according to TradingView data. This indicates that the sector has much stronger momentum and demand potential compared to other sector stocks. In the retail sector, BIMAS (BİM) stands out, with its overall signal at "NEUTRAL" but technical indicators pointing to the "BUY" zone. In the holding sector, major companies like KCHOL (Koç Holding) and SAHOL (Sabancı Holding) have overall signals at "NEUTRAL" or "SELL" levels, with weak recovery signals visible in the sector. In the banking sector, leading banks such as AKBNK (Akbank), GARAN (Garanti BBVA), and VAKBN (Vakıfbank) have overall signals at "SELL" levels, with a bearish trend observed in the sector. In the Metal & Mining sector, KRDMD (Kardemir) has an overall signal of "NEUTRAL" but technical indicators are giving a "SELL" signal. In the Aviation & Transportation sector, TAVHL (TAV Havalimanları) has an overall signal of "SELL" but technical indicators are giving a "BUY" signal. In other sectors, stocks have overall signals at "SELL" levels, with a bearish trend observed in the overall market.

3. Technical Visual Analysis

Technical analysis of leading stocks clearly reveals market divergence and potential. Within the entire BIST 30 universe, TUPRS (Tüpraş) has shown the strongest performance in terms of technical indicators. The company has achieved a massive 90.3% return in the last 60 days, rising to the 417.25 TL level with a 1.27% increase on the last trading day. Technically, TUPRS has an RSI value of 66.42, positioning it in a strong buying zone, and the MACD indicator shows a clear upward momentum of 17.48. Although the Stochastic Oscillator at 70.54 suggests it's approaching the overbought zone, it supports the potential for the trend to continue. The "STRONG BUY" signal from TradingView confirms the strength in this stock's technical anatomy. On the other hand, BIMAS (BİM) has shown steady performance with a 12.5% return in the last 60 days and receives a "BUY" signal with an RSI of 54.95. However, holding stocks like KCHOL (Koç Holding) and SAHOL (Sabancı Holding) continue to weaken technically, with RSI values falling below 50, giving "NEUTRAL" and "SELL" signals. Banking sector stocks are generally showing weak performance; AKBNK (Akbank) and GARAN (Garanti BBVA) have RSI values around 50 and are receiving "SELL" signals. Particularly, stocks in the energy and industrial sectors such as ASTOR, EREGL, and SISE are attracting attention as the weakest parts of the market, with RSI values falling below 40 and giving "STRONG SELL" signals.

4. Oscillator and Momentum Readings

Momentum indicators clearly reveal strong and weak stocks in the market. TUPRS (Tüpraş) is positioned in a strong buying zone with an RSI value of 66.42 and is supported by an upward momentum with MACD of 17.48. The Stochastic Oscillator at 70.54 suggests it's approaching the overbought zone. The CCI20 value of 100.78 indicates a strong buying zone, and the ADX value of 36.96 shows strong trend signals. BIMAS (BİM) receives a "BUY" signal with an RSI value of 54.95 and is supported by an upward momentum with MACD of 5.96. TAVHL (TAV Havalimanları) receives a "BUY" signal with an RSI value of 53.63 but shows weak momentum with MACD of -1.85. TOASO (Tofaş) receives a "BUY" signal with an RSI value of 52.77 and is supported by an upward momentum with MACD of 2.54. ISCTR (İş Bankası) receives a "NEUTRAL" signal with an RSI value of 51.52 and shows upward momentum with MACD of 0.13. VAKBN (Vakıfbank) receives a "NEUTRAL" signal with an RSI value of 50.03 and shows upward momentum with MACD of 0.57. KCHOL (Koç Holding) receives a "NEUTRAL" signal with an RSI value of 49.93 and shows upward momentum with MACD of 2.66. PETKM (Petkim) receives a "NEUTRAL" signal with an RSI value of 49.41 and shows upward momentum with MACD of 0.61. AKBNK (Akbank) receives a "SELL" signal with an RSI value of 49.76 and shows upward momentum with MACD of 0.12. KRDMD (Kardemir) receives a "SELL" signal with an RSI value of 49.12 and shows upward momentum with MACD of 0.21. GARAN (Garanti BBVA) receives a "SELL" signal with an RSI value of 48.49 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -0.23. TRALT (Türk Altın İşletmeleri) receives a "SELL" signal with an RSI value of 47.92 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -0.11. AEFES (Anadolu Efes) receives a "SELL" signal with an RSI value of 45.64 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -0.22. ASELS (Aselsan) receives a "SELL" signal with an RSI value of 45.57 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -1.53. MGROS (Migros) receives a "SELL" signal with an RSI value of 41.82 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -17.74. EREGL (Ereğli Demir Çelik) receives a "SELL" signal with an RSI value of 41.7 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -0.65. DSTKF (Destek Finans Faktoring) receives a "SELL" signal with an RSI value of 39.68 and shows weak momentum with MACD of 41.23. ASTOR (Astor Enerji) receives a "SELL" signal with an RSI value of 30.82 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -16.51. TTKOM (Türk Telekom) receives a "STRONG SELL" signal with an RSI value of 46.38 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -0.22. ENKAI (Enka İnşaat) receives a "STRONG SELL" signal with an RSI value of 46.0 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -0.24. EKGYO (Emlak Konut GYO) receives a "STRONG SELL" signal with an RSI value of 45.29 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -0.0. SISE (Şişecam) receives a "STRONG SELL" signal with an RSI value of 44.36 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -0.05. GUBRF (Gübre Fabrikaları) receives a "STRONG SELL" signal with an RSI value of 43.91 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -1.84. PGSUS (Pegasus) receives a "STRONG SELL" signal with an RSI value of 43.51 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -1.32. SASA (Sasa Polyester) receives a "STRONG SELL" signal with an RSI value of 42.91 and shows weak momentum with MACD of 0.04. SAHOL (Sabancı Holding) receives a "STRONG SELL" signal with an RSI value of 42.54 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -0.32. FROTO (Ford Otosan) receives a "STRONG SELL" signal with an RSI value of 42.34 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -0.5. TCELL (Turkcell) receives a "STRONG SELL" signal with an RSI value of 42.18 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -1.27. THYAO (Türk Hava Yolları) receives a "STRONG SELL" signal with an RSI value of 40.73 and shows weak momentum with MACD of -5.87.

5. Risk Map and Scenarios

Current market conditions are increasing the uncertainty of short-term scenarios, making a proactive risk management strategy essential. In potential downside scenarios, the risk of the index failing to break the 16.182 resistance and pulling back toward the 16.182 support level is the primary threat. If this scenario occurs, significant losses could be seen, particularly in energy stocks that have seen recent bargain hunting and in holding stocks showing technical extraordinary (YO) signals. On the other hand, in an upside scenario, with a potential softening in global central bank interest rate decisions and a possible decline in energy prices, technically strong stocks like TUPRS (Tüpraş) and BIMAS (BİM) could reach target levels. The annual inflation rate of 31.5% will continue to exert significant long-term pressure on the market. Therefore, portfolio managers should revise their strategies to diversify risks and focus only on the strongest stocks (TUPRS, BIMAS, TAVHL, TOASO).

6. Recommended Stocks for the Day