Deep Analysis

1. Market Summary and Overview

On Wednesday, September 23, 2026, the BIST 30 index (XU030) closed at 16.217.83, experiencing a 1.06% drop from the previous day amid volatility. In an environment where global geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures are intensifying, markets are technically undergoing a critical consolidation and divergence process. The index rose above the 16.000 level to 16.391.39 before pulling back, losing the opportunity for a daily recovery. The red candle formed on the daily chart shows a tendency to consolidate at the 16.217 level, despite the 60-day technical trend being at a "STRONG BUY" level. The upward breakout of this consolidation zone will be one of the most important indicators determining the index's future trend direction, while a failure to break out could pose a risk of a pullback towards the 16.217 level and weakening buying power. In light of macro data, the annual inflation rate of 31.5% according to TUIK data negatively affects corporate profitability, while Goldman Sachs' assessment that financial conditions in Turkey are easing carries the potential to provide liquidity to markets. However, news such as Germany's economic measures package against China and Fed interest rate pressures are dampening global risk appetite. In this environment, a stock picking strategy in BIST 30 is emerging as the safest and most profitable approach.

2. Sector-Based Evaluation

A clear decoupling is observed between sectors in the market. According to technical analysis data and signal intensity, the strongest and most positively positioned sectors are:

• Retail: Sector leader BIM (BIMAS), is in the position of the strongest stock with both technical and fundamental data. BIM, which dominates the sector with its 60-day return, is at the "STRONG BUY" level in TradingView signals. Koç Holding — KCHOL is the most solid name within the holding group, continuing its upward movement without diverging from the index with its strong correlation (r=0.90).

• Metal & Mining: Kardemir (KRDMD), is one of the stocks giving the strongest signal in the sector. The technical trend being at "BUY" level and the WT (Wave Trend) signal being "BUY" reflect the potential in iron and steel demand.

• Banking: Although there are recovery signals in the sector overall, Akbank (AKBNK) andGaranti BBVA (GARAN), are at "BUY" level in their short-term trends but at "WAIT" level in medium and long-term trends. This situation indicates that the banking sector has not yet entered a clear upward trend.

On the other hand, Energy & Petrochemicals, Automotive, Telecom, Aviation andReal Estate sectors are giving intense "SELL" or "STRONG SELL" signals in technical and fundamental data, carrying market risk. Especially Tüpraş (TUPRS) (company), carries a technical correction risk due to its high recent return (81%).Petkim (PETKM) andŞişecam (SISE, company) are also notable for their strong downtrends.

3. Technical Visual Analysis

EMA (Moving Average) sequences and Wave Trend (WT) analyses clarify the positions of the stocks. Pearson correlation (r) shows how dependent the stock is on the index, while the regression channel determines its current position.

• KCHOL — Koç Holding: While EMA sequences place the stock within an upward trend, the WT signal is at "BUY" level. Although the channel position is at 36%, in the lower band of the upward channel, it is very strongly correlated with the index at r=0.90. This indicates that the stock will follow the index's upward movement.

• BIMAS (BIM): EMA's and WT signal at "BUY" level. Channel position at 61%, in the middle region of the upward channel. Strongly correlated with the index at r=0.88. This stock proves its inflation resistance.

• AKBNK (Akbank): Short-term EMA's are at "BUY" level but long-term EMA's are at "WAIT" level. WT at "BUY" level. Channel position at 67%, in the upper band of the channel. Nearly independent from the index at r=0.14. This shows that the stock moves independently of the index, determining its own dynamics.

• TUPRS (Tüpraş) (company): EMA's are at "WAIT" level in the short term. WT signal at "SELL" level. Channel position at %-10, in the lower band of the upward channel. Perfectly correlated with the index at r=0.96. This indicates that the stock follows the index's decline.

• ASELS (Aselsan): EMA's are at "SELL" level in the short term. WT signal at "SELL" level. Channel position at 30%, in the lower band of the channel. Moderately correlated with the index at r=0.41. Horizontal movement and correction risk are present in defense industry stocks.

4. Oscillator and Momentum Readings

RSI, MACD, Stochastic and CCI values reveal the overbought/oversold areas and momentum of the stocks.

• BIMAS: RSI (59.5) and MACD (6.97) are taking positive values. Stochastic K (76.25) is in the upper band of the upward channel. CCI (151.87) is in the overbought zone. This shows that the stock is in a strong upward trend.

• KCHOL: RSI (55.14) and MACD (2.84) are moderately positive. Stochastic K (58.96) is in neutral zone. CCI (59.66) is in neutral zone. Momentum is healthy.

• AKBNK: RSI (55.08) and MACD (0.37) are giving recovery signals. Stochastic K (68.77) is in the upward channel. CCI (63.24) is in neutral zone. There is a short-term buying opportunity.

• TUPRS: RSI (53.63) and MACD (14.76) are high values. Stochastic K (67.86) is in the upward channel. CCI (13.62) is in neutral zone. There is a recovery risk after excessive rise.

• TAVHL (TAV Airports): RSI (54.55) and MACD (-0.28) in neutral territory. Stochastic K (89.54) in overbought zone. CCI (71.8) in uptrend channel. This indicates the stock is technically overbought and a short-term correction is expected.

• GUBRF (Fertilizer Factories): RSI (43.0) and MACD (-4.68) negative. Stochastic K (43.23) in downtrend channel. CCI (-92.62) in oversold zone. This indicates the stock is technically very weak.

5. Risk Map and Scenarios

Market risk map clarifies upside and downside scenarios.

• Upside Scenario: If BIST 30 successfully breaks above 16.391.39 and reaches the 16.500 band, the index could start an uptrend towards the 16.800-17.000 band. In this scenario, strong stocks like KCHOL, BIMAS, and AKBNK will stand out.

• Downside Scenario: If the index breaks above 16.217.83 and tests the 16.000 level, the index could experience a pullback towards the 15.500-15.800 band. In this scenario, weak stocks like TUPRS, PETKM, SISE, and ASTOR could suffer further losses.

• Levels to Watch:

  • Resistance: 16.391.39 (previous close), 16.500, 16.800

  • Support: 16,000, 15,800, 15,500

• Split Strategy: If the index falls below 16.000, the divergence among stocks could deepen. In this case, only the strongest stocks (BIMAS, KCHOL) may provide protection, while other stocks could suffer greater losses.

6. Recommended Stocks for the Day