Note: This bulletin could not be completed due to a technical interruption at the provider on September 28 (cut off in the middle of section 4). Please see the next daily deep analysis for complete versions.
1. Market Summary and Overview
As of September 28, 2026, Monday at 08:26, the BIST 30 (XU030) index closed at 15.946.95 with a +0.04% daily change compared to the previous close of 15.940.38; the BIST 100 (XU100) stood at 15.947 with a +0.09% increase from 15.947; USD/TRY was at 48.97, with a +0.05% change from the previous 48.95, while the daily performance of XU030 in dollar terms was -0.01%. While the index shows almost a flat course in Turkish Lira terms, the negative dollar-denominated return indicates that the daily increase is entirely a nominal effect dependent on exchange rate movement, and no real value increase has occurred. This picture shows that banking and holding stocks are under dominant selling pressure in the index's weighted structure, and this pressure is being attempted to be balanced by selective buying in industrial and automotive stocks. Looking at portfolio status data, the test portfolio totals 98.296.74 TL, with a daily 1.18% and cumulative 1.70% loss, with USD, GOLD, TIME DEPOSIT, XU100 and XU030 all underperforming all benchmark references; this proves that positioning is weak relative to the broader market and that risk management needs to be prioritized.
Daily volume and price action indicate that capital is segregating according to "quality and visibility" criteria. KRDMD (Kardemir) gives a BUY signal across all timeframes (short, medium, long), showing a strong structure in the middle of the trend with Wave Trend (WT) BUY confirmation and a 54% channel position; while TOASO (Tofaş) is trading near the 80% upper band of the channel with a distinct +3.76% daily increase. These two stocks belonging to the Metal & Mining and Automotive sectors reinforces the trend of focusing on industrial companies with high foreign exchange revenue and import input costs benefiting from currency stability. In contrast, banking stocks considered the locomotive of the index, AKBNK (Akbank), GARAN (Garanti BBVA), YKBNK (Yapı Kredi), ISCTR (İş Bankası) give STRONG SELL signals in technical screening, and TradingView oscillator suggestions also give STRONG SELL signals, preventing the index from breaking out. Holdings SAHOL (Sabancı Holding) and KCHOL (Koç Holding) are under similar pressure. TUPRS (Tüpraş), despite a historical +69.3% performance over 60 days, has WT SELL and is at the channel bottom (4%), indicating a high profit realization risk and questioning the sustainability of the divergence in the energy sector.
The macro plan's reflection is consistent with the technical structure. With annual inflation at 31.51% in Turkey, policy interest rate remaining stable at 37.0%, and consumer credit interest at 63.74% levels, the real interest rate environment is pressuring the banking credit function, which forms the fundamental basis for the selling pressure on bank stocks. In the US, the 30-year Treasury bond interest rate staying around 4% levels and VIX's low trajectory at 14.87 indicate that global risk appetite has not reached panic levels yet is fragile with rising interest rate expectations (1-year 4.6%). The sharp 8.6% decline in Brent oil (97.44 USD/barrel) reduces imported energy costs, which is positive for the current balance, but weakens the pricing dynamics of energy stocks like TUPRS and PETKM (Petkim). In this context, the index's consolidation in the 15.900-16.000 band suggests that the directional breakout in the coming sessions will result from sectoral rotation, and stock picking rather than index level will determine returns.
2. Sector-Based Evaluation
Heat map and signal density analysis shows a clear sectoral polarization within BIST 30.Metal & Mining the sector contains contrast between KRDMD's (STRONG BUY / STRONG BUY) strong signal density and EREGL (Ereğli Demir Çelik) SELL signals; however, KRDMD's +20.0% return over 60 days and strong trend with Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.77 proves that the sector is at least in a "strong trend following" zone for this stock.Automotive in the sector TOASO (BUY / STRONG BUY) stands out with daily +3.76% and 60-day -5.3% (potential for bottoming), while FROTO (Ford Otosan) shows the exact opposite structure with STRONG SELL / STRONG SELL; this divergence suggests that TOASO is better leveraging the currency advantage of its Fiat/Stellantis partnership and export-oriented model compared to FROTO's Ford automotive model.
Banking the sector gives technical general NEUTRAL/SELL/STRONG SELL signals for all five large stocks (AKBNK, GARAN, YKBNK, ISCTR, VAKBN), maintaining the status of the index's heaviest sector "under selling pressure". Although VAKBN (Vakıfbank) shows weak positive divergence with technical general NEUTRAL and TV BUY (buy=12/sell=8), its trend strength is weak with channel 46%, RSI 51.5, and ADX 18.9.Energy & Petrochemicals The sector presents a mixed picture: TUPRS (NEUTRAL / BUY) 60g +69.3 per cent is the top performer, but WT SELL and channel 4 per cent; PETKM (SELL / SELL) 60g +11.7 per cent, but WT SELL; ENKAI (Enka Construction) (STRONG SELL / STRONG SELL) is down 6.1 per cent over 60 days; ASTOR (Astor Energy) (SELL / SELL) is down 13.4 per cent over 60 days. The fact that TUPRS is the only stock in the sector to be rated ‘Buy’ on the oscillators suggests it holds potential for a technical rebound should profit-taking subside, whilst the others are characterised by structural weakness.
Aviation & Transportation the sector shows predominantly SELL/STRONG SELL signals for the trio THYAO (Turkish Airlines), PGSUS (Pegasus), TAVHL (TAV Airports). THYAO is in a very strong downtrend with 60-day -12.8%, channel 72%, r=-0.90; PGSUS with 60-day -17.1%, channel 61%, r=-0.82; TAVHL is relatively flat but gives WT BUY signal with 60-day -1.9%, channel 47%, r=0.26. Although tourism revenue increase to 15.9 billion USD (macro data) is fundamentally positive, the technical structure is directed toward sales due to jet fuel costs and seasonal effect expectations.Retailin the sector BIMAS (BİM) (NEUTRAL / BUY) is strong with 60-day +19.5% but WT SELL; MGROS (Migros) (STRONG SELL / STRONG SELL) is weak with 60-day -16.8%.Chemicals & FertilizersWhilst GUBRF (Fertiliser Factories) recorded the highest daily increase at +6.45 per cent, the overall rating for SAT (technical) and NÖTR (TV) is ‘SELL’, whilst SASA (Sasa Polyester) is in a downtrend with a ‘STRONG SELL / STRONG SELL’ rating. Telecomin the sector TTKOM (Türk Telekom) (NEUTRAL / BUY) is relatively strong with WT BUY and channel 73%; TCELL (Turkcell) (SELL / SELL) is weak with 60-day -7.8%, r=-0.76.Defensein the sector ASELS (Aselsan) (STRONG SELL / SELL) with 60-day -3.2%, RSI 46.2.Real Estatein the sector EKGYO (Emlak Konut GYO) (STRONG SELL / STRONG SELL).Finance (Other)DSTKF (Destek Finans Faktoring) (STRONG SELL / STRONG SELL) 60g -69.2%, RSI 24.4 in oversold but trend not broken.Glass & CeramicsSISE (Şişecam) (STRONG SELL / STRONG SELL).Food & BeverageAEFES (Anadolu Efes) (STRONG SELL / SELL).
In summary; industry (Metals, partial Automotive) "buy", finance (Banking, Holding, Factoring), aviation, retail (Migros), Sasa Polyester (SASA), glass, real estate "sell" zone. Energy, telecom, retail (BIM) mixed. Capital flow is clearly directed towards low correlation, currency protected, strong trend industrial stocks (KRDMD, TOASO).
3. Technical Visual Analysis
When EMA sequences (Short/Medium/Long), Wave Trend (WT), Regression Channel positions (%) and Pearson correlation coefficients (r) are evaluated together, clear conclusions can be drawn about trend quality and sustainability.KRDMD (Kardemir) It shows "gold standard" appearance in these metrics: Short=BUY, Medium=BUY, Long=BUY sequence (bullish alignment), WT=BUY, Channel 54% (trend middle, neither bottom nor top), r=0.77 (strong positive linear relationship/trend). This structure shows that price at 46.96 TL level can continue to add on to a 60-day +20% return, and as long as there is no technical breakdown (e.g., Short EMA crossing below Medium EMA or WT turning to SELL), the trend remains valid.
TOASO (Tofaş) (company) It shows a different profile: Short=BUY, Medium=HOLD, Long=BUY. Short-term momentum supports the long-term trend but medium-term EMA is in "hold" mode, which indicates that the 290.0 TL level (channel 80%, near upper band) is testing resistance with high risk of breakdown or pullback. r=-0.28 value shows weak/negative linear relationship between price and time, meaning the trend is not following a "regular line", but a volatile rise. If supported by daily +3.76% volume, a breakout scenario beyond the channel could come into play if this resistance is broken.
TUPRS (Tüpraş) (stock code) It shows a paradoxical structure: Short=HOLD, Medium=BUY, Long=BUY (long-term trend up), WT=SELL (short-term momentum negative), Channel 4% (channel bottom), r=0.95 (perfect positive correlation/strong trend). The 406.0 TL price has reached the channel bottom as a result of a massive 60-day +69.3% rise. r=0.95 proves how strong and linear the trend is; but WT=SELL and Channel 4% suggest this trend has entered an overbought/exhaustion phase, with very high probability of a technical pullback or sideways consolidation. Here the "trend is your friend" rule should be balanced with the warning "trend is not your friend when it ends".
THYAO (Turkish Airlines) andPGSUS (Pegasus) Example of textbook downtrend: THYAO Short=SELL, Medium=SELL, Long=HOLD, WT=BUY (counter-trend bounce?), Channel 72% (near upper band but falling), r=-0.90 (perfect negative correlation). PGSUS Short=SELL, Medium=SELL, Long=SELL, WT=SELL, Channel 61%, r=-0.82. In both, EMA sequence is completely bearish (logic for SELL signal when Short < Medium < Long), r values prove how ruthless and linear the trend is. In THYAO, WT=BUY, price at 290.75 TL is near channel upper band (72%), likely giving a technical bounce (oversold bounce), but as long as main trend (r=-0.90) is not broken, this bounce is likely to be a selling opportunity.
EREGL — Ereğli Demir Çelik andSAHOL — Sabancı Holding Examples of divergence: EREGL Short=HOLD, Medium=SELL, Long=HOLD, WT=BUY, Channel 65%, r=-0.71. WT BUY (short-term buy) but EMA sequence and r=-0.71 (strong negative trend) contradict; this is the classic "technical bounce in downtrend" (bear market rally). SAHOL Short=SELL, Medium=SELL, Long=SELL, WT=SELL, Channel 18% (dip area), r=0.31 (weak positive). Being at channel bottom (18%) and weak r suggest 88.25 TL could be a support testing area, but trend (EMA sequence) is downward; if support breaks, fast movement can be expected.
BIMAS (BIM) andVAKBN (Vakifbank) " In the "mixed signal" group: BIMAS Short=HOLD, Medium=BUY, Long=BUY, WT=SELL, Channel 41%, r=0.87. Long-term trend is very strong (r=0.87), price at 424.75 TL is slightly below channel middle, with WT=SELL meaning short-term momentum is negative. This looks like a "healthy pullback" for the continuation of the long trend. VAKBN Short=HOLD, Medium=BUY, Long=BUY, WT=SELL, Channel 46%, r=0.65. Similar structure; trend up (r=0.65), momentum short-term negative (WT=SELL), price at channel middle. Banking sector pressure is also affecting VAKBN, but no structural breakdown (Long EMA breakdown) yet.
GUBRF (Fertiliser Factories) An interesting "fakeout" candidate: Daily +6.45%, price 458.0 TL, Channel 35%, r=0.51 (medium strength trend), but EMA: Short=HOLD, Medium=SELL, Long=HOLD, WT=BUY. WT=BUY and strong daily candle carry the risk of being a "dead cat bounce / bear trap" in the downtrend (Medium=SELL). r=0.51 shows the trend is weakening, and 35% channel position is not yet in the dip area (dip 0%-20).
4. Oscillator and Momentum Readings
TradingView oscillator summaries (RSI, MACD, Stochastic K, CCI20, ADX) and recommendation distributions (Buy/Sell/Neutral) diagnose the strength and weakness behind the price action.KRDMD (Kardemir): Recommendation STRONG BUY (18/1/9). RSI 57.92 (neutral-positive, no overbought at 70), MACD 0.59 (positive, above zero line), StochK 79.34 (approaching overbought zone, risky above 80), CCI20 95.58 (strong momentum, not above +100), ADX 17.42 (weak/medium trend strength, below 25). The noteworthy point here is StochK at 79.34, indicating that the price has entered an overbought zone in the short term, potentially requiring a consolidation or slight pullback (RSI 50-55, Stoch below 50). MACD is positive but small. ADX 17 suggests the trend might be in "drifting" rather than "trending" mode, which aligns with the BUY rating for the EMA sequence but points to a persistent upward drift rather than a strong trend.
TOASO (Tofaş) (company): Recommendation STRONG BUY (18/2/8). RSI 55.60 (healthy), MACD 2.14 (strongly positive), StochK 57.55 (medium, safe), CCI20 58.07 (positive momentum), ADX 15.62 (very weak trend strength). Unlike KRDMD, MACD is much stronger (2.14 vs 0.59), indicating that momentum is increasing rapidly. ADX at 15 level confirms this movement may be an un matured "trend", a volatile thrust. StochK staying at 57 while the price is at 80% of the channel shows that momentum hasn't become excessive while the price is hitting the upper band, meaning the rally could continue (or consolidate over time to dissipate the overbought condition).
TUPRS (Tüpraş) (stock code): Recommendation BUY (11/8/9). RSI 56.54, MACD 12.24 (extremely high positive, trace of rapid price increase periods), StochK 66.10, CCI20 19.39 (weakening momentum), ADX 28.04 (trend strength present, above 25). MACD's 12.24 level is the trace of the vertical surge when the price reached 40 TL; while the price is now consolidating (channel at 4%), MACD remains high, which doesn't create "MACD divergence", it's just a trace of the past. However, CCI20 dropping to 19 (from above) shows momentum has cooled significantly, while ADX 28 confirms the trend is still valid but not supported by momentum. This aligns with the WT SELL signal: Trend is alive, momentum is ending -> High correction risk.
BIMAS (BIM): Recommendation BUY (15/5/8). RSI 54.81, MACD 6.34, StochK 69.64, CCI20 45.38, ADX 21.52. All oscillators are "bullish"