Deep Analysis

1. Market Summary and Overview

As of 18:12 on Wednesday, 30 September 2026, the BIST 30 index stood at 14.872.04, having fallen from 15.264.10—a decline of 2.57 per cent compared with the previous close; Meanwhile, the BIST 100 index fell by 2.62 per cent to 14.872 points, whilst the USD/TRY exchange rate rose by 0.03 per cent to 49.01, limiting the BIST 30’s dollar-based performance to a loss of 2.59 per cent. Daily closing figures indicate that broad-based selling pressure prevailed and that the index is rapidly moving below its 60-day moving average. A sharp fall of 8.05 per cent in Brent crude oil (96.81 USD/barrel), a 3.33 per cent decline in the price of gold per ounce (USD 4.177.30) and a slight 0.38 per cent rise in the DXY (101.59) point to a weakening of global risk appetite and the liquidation of commodity positions. On the macroeconomic front, Turkey-specific data reveals that annual inflation came in at 3.2 per cent (below the forecast of 2.65 per cent); despite real interest rates remaining deep in negative territory, monetary policy remains tight (policy rate at 37.0 per cent), that credit growth has slowed to 1.2 per cent, and that the current account deficit has narrowed by a surprise 36.6 million dollars (forecast: 650 million dollars). On the US side, the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates steady at 4.0 per cent, core PCE inflation holding steady at 3.3 per cent, and the NFP figures coming in well above expectations (162.000 vs 56.000), strengthens the ‘soft landing’ scenario whilst keeping inflation risks alive. In the Eurozone, with the policy rate at 2.65 per cent, core inflation at 2.4 per cent and growth at 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 2.4 per cent year-on-year, the backdrop remains relatively supportive for EU exports to Turkey. Portfolio performance has declined by 1.04 per cent on the day to 95.636.6 TL, whilst the US dollar, gold, deposits and the XU100/XU030 benchmarks are all trading above the portfolio value (at 101.564, 96.857, 103.001, 85.949 and 90.404 TL respectively), demonstrates that the strategy underperformed the market.

2. Sector-Based Evaluation

The banking sector faced the heaviest selling pressure of the day; VAKBN (-4.04 per cent), AKBNK (-4.08 per cent), YKBNK (5.50 per cent), GARAN (4.96 per cent) and ISCTR (5.56 per cent) signalled a ‘STRONG SELL’ with their daily losses, making their weight on the index felt. Whilst the sector’s net profit figure of 676.3 billion TL (Ekonomim-Piyasa) has been priced in, concerns over real interest rate expectations, NPL risk and margin squeeze remain at the forefront. Holding companies (KCHOL -2.66 per cent, SAHOL -2.42 per cent) and the aviation/transport sector (THYAO -2.83 per cent, PGSUS -4.21 per cent, TAVHL -2.06 per cent) accounted for the second-largest share of the index’s decline, Whilst the fall in Brent crude has created a cost advantage for THYAO and PGSUS, concerns over demand and currency risk are overshadowing this advantage. In the Energy & Petrochemicals sector, whilst TUPRS appeared relatively resilient with a daily gain of 0.20 per cent, the technical outlook for TUPRS is ‘SELL’, whilst PETKM, ENKAI and ASTOR are in a ‘STRONG SELL’ position; ASTOR, down 9.97 per cent, has been the sector’s weakest link, with a 41.4 per cent decline over 60 days indicating that reactionary selling continues. In the Retail sector, BIMAS has diverged with a 0.12 per cent loss, maintaining its “NEUTRAL” status, whilst MGROS is signalling a “STRONG SELL” with a 2.31 per cent fall and a 55 per cent channel position. In Metals & Mining, KRDMD fell by 2.61 per cent and EREGL by 1.80 per cent; in chemicals, GUBRF by 1.08 per cent and SASA by 5.32 per cent; in defence, ASELS by 0.07 per cent; in telecoms, TTKOM fell by 2.27 per cent and TCELL by 2.29 per cent; in the automotive sector, TOASO fell by 5.23 per cent and FROTO by 0.81 per cent; in the property sector, EKGYO fell by 1.28 per cent; in food and beverages, AEFES fell by 2.70 per cent; and in glass, SISE fell by 3.66 per cent, with almost all sectors under selling pressure. Heat map data (the ‘general’ column in the technical scan) reveals that 29 out of 30 shares are rated ‘SELL’ or ‘STRONG SELL’, with only BIMAS in a “NEUTRAL” position, demonstrating that market breadth is extremely weak and that sellers are in control.

3. Technical Visual Analysis

EMA setups (short/medium/long-term signals) are in a “SELL” or “WAIT” position for almost all shares; with the exception of BIMAS (short-term: HOLD, medium-term: BUY, long-term: BUY), the long-term structure is still maintaining an uptrend, although the loss of short-term momentum has shifted the signal to "HOLD". The Wave Trend (WT) indicator is issuing a “SELL” signal for all 30 shares, confirming that short-term overbought conditions have been resolved and that momentum is turning downwards. Regression channel positions (channel %) and Pearson correlation coefficients (r) help distinguish the quality of the trend: BIMAS, at channel 29% and r=0.86, remains within the trend channel, relatively close to the lower band, and maintains an upward trend with a strong positive correlation. TUPRS is at channel %-13 (having fallen below the lower band) and exhibits a very strong trend (currently downwards) with r=0.92. KCHOL is at channel %-17, r=0.85; KRDMD is at channel 13%, r=0.73; VAKBN is at 14 per cent, with r = 0.71; AKBNK is at –5 per cent, with r = 0.58; YKBNK is at 0 per cent, with r = 0.57; GUBRF is at –3 per cent, with r = 0.48; GARAN is at –28 per cent, with r = 0.44; PETKM channel 6 per cent, r=0.35; ASELS channel –12 per cent, r=0.34; SAHOL channel –7 per cent, r=0.30; TAVHL channel 13 per cent, r=0.21; EKGYO channel 26 per cent, r=0.05; ISCTR channel 18 per cent, r=0.02; TRALT channel 2 per cent, r=0.02 — this group indicates that the correlation has weakened and that the price is moving erratically within the channel. TOASO channel 27 per cent, r = −0.21; SASA channel −13 per cent, r = −0.33; ENKAI channel 24 per cent, r = −0.37; TTKOM channel 38 per cent, r = −0.40; FROTO channel 9 per cent, r = -0.49; ASTOR channel -20 per cent, r = -0.51; SISE channel 13 per cent, r = -0.53; AEFES channel 36 per cent, r = -0.74; EREGL channel 46 per cent, r = −0.74; TCELL channel 35 per cent, r = −0.76; PGSUS channel 2 per cent, r = −0.82; MGROS channel 55 per cent, r = −0.90; THYAO channel 47 per cent, r = −0.90; DSTKF channel 14 per cent, r = −0.48 — this group, with a negative Pearson correlation coefficient, demonstrates that the price is in a strong, directional downtrend from the upper band of the channel towards the lower band. The positions of MGROS and THYAO, with r = -0.90 and channel positions of 55 per cent and 47 per cent respectively, indicate that the trend is not only very strong but also began in the upper half of the channel and is progressing rapidly towards the lower band; this pattern increases the likelihood of a technical rebound (technical correction), but the risk of ‘catching the bottom’ is very high unless the trend breaks.

4. Oscillator and Momentum Readings

TradingView oscillator summaries (RSI, MACD, StochK, CCI20, ADX) indicate that the market has entered a deep sell zone, but has not yet fully recovered from being ‘oversold’. RSI values: BIMAS 52.15 (neutral-slightly positive), KRDMD 46.46, VAKBN 45.75, TUPRS 42.49, KCHOL 42.28, EREGL 40.57, TTKOM 43.06, EKGYO 42.09, YKBNK 41.75, THYAO 41.52, TAVHL 41.16, ENKAI 40.28, TCELL 39.91, AKBNK 39.90, TOASO 39.86, GUBRF 38.96, ISCTR 38.91, PETKM 38.69, FROTO 38.24, MGROS 37.93, GARAN 37.91, TRALT 37.18, SAHOL 36.77, AEFES 36.00, SISE 35.77, ASELS 34.41, PGSUS 31.67, SASA 25.61, ASTOR 23.12, DSTKF 20.30. Levels below 30 (the oversold threshold) are only seen in SASA, ASTOR and DSTKF; the 30–40 range is observed across a wide spectrum (PGSUS, SISE, AEFES, SAHOL, TRALT, GARAN, MGROS, FROTO, PETKM, ISCTR, GUBRF, TOASO, AKBNK, TCELL, ENKAI, TAVHL, THYAO, YKBNK, EKGYO, TTKOM, EREGL, KCHOL, TUPRS, VAKBN, KRDMD). This divergence suggests that prices could fall further; should the RSI drop below 30 and remain there, it could trigger a new wave of selling. MACD histograms: BIMAS 4.82 (positive), TUPRS 5.44 (positive but price is falling – potential bearish divergence), KCHOL 0.34, KRDMD 0.41, VAKBN 0.23 positive; negative for all other shares (ENKAI -0.63, TTKOM -0.30, TCELL -1.06, AKBNK -0.30, TOASO -0.64, GUBRF -10.49, ISCTR -0.04, PETKM -0.25, FROTO -1.17, MGROS -11.58, GARAN -0.90, TRALT -1.21, SAHOL -1.38, AEFES -0.33, SISE -0.86, ASELS -8.26, PGSUS -2.91, SASA -0.15, ASTOR -23.63, DSTKF -329.48). The fact that the MACD is negative across such a wide range proves that momentum is definitely in favour of the sellers. Stochastic %K: BIMAS 62.28, YKBNK 62.27, THYAO 62.71, MGROS 54.17, TAVHL 53.43, AKBNK 51.07, GARAN 48.94, TRALT 5.63, SISE 5.53, PETKM 1.85, SASA 2.88, DSTKF 0.00 — no overbought conditions (>80); oversold conditions (<20) are observed in SISE, PETKM, SASA, DSTKF and TRALT. CCI20: BIMAS -13.46 (neutral), the others are deeply negative in the range of -35 to -218; ADX: MGROS 32.09, ASTOR 38.39, DSTKF 33.50, GUBRF 29.65, TUPRS 28.07, ASELS 28.08, THYAO 27.30, TCELL 26.83, AEFES 26.90, FROTO 25.72, SAHOL 31.53, ENKAI 25.18, SASA 24.80 — ADX values above 25 (MGROS, ASTOR, DSTKF, GUBRF, TUPRS, ASELS, THYAO, TCELL, AEFES, FROTO, SAHOL, ENKAI, SASA) indicate a strong (downward) trend, whilst values below 20 (BIMAS 17.53, KRDMD 15.58, VAKBN 16.85, PETKM 17.42, TRALT 19.78, AKBNK 19.87, YKBNK 19.40, EKGYO 19.33, ISCTR 21.65, GARAN 20.93, TOASO 15.74, TTKOM 13.24, SISE 21.45, PGSUS 18.25, KCHOL 25.38) indicate that the trend is weak or in consolidation. In summary: The broader market is in a ‘STRONG SELL’ momentum, the RSI is contracting within the 30–40 band, the MACD is negative, the CCI is deeply negative, and the ADX confirms trend strength in selected shares.

5. Risk Map and Scenarios

Base Scenario (Base Case – Probability 60 per cent): The BIST 30 may attempt to pull back from the 14.872.04 level towards the 14.500–14.600 range (an additional decline of approximately 2.5–3.0 per cent). Whilst USD/TRY trades sideways within the 49.00–49.10 range, pressure on the energy and aviation sectors will increase if Brent falls below 95 USD. The banking index (XBANK), weighted by VAKBN, AKBNK, YKBNK, GARAN and ISCTR, may drag the index down. Unless a significant volume of buying emerges at these levels (we do not have volume data, but the price movement suggests it is occurring on low volume), the 14.200–14.300 level (around the 60-day EMA) may be tested. Optimistic Scenario (Probability 4 per cent): If US macroeconomic data (NFP, CPI) comes in weaker than expected, this will reignite expectations of a definite interest rate cut by the Fed; should the DXY fall below 101,587, USD/TRY could retreat to 48,995–48.90. In this scenario, should ‘bottom-fishing’ buying emerge in shares with relatively strong fundamentals—such as BIMAS, TUPRS and KCHOL—the index could return to the 15.000–15.100 range (representing a daily closing recovery of 1–1.5 per cent). Condition: BIMAS must remain above 420 TL, TUPRS must hold its 370 TL support level, and at least one leading banking stock (AKBNK or GARAN) must close above an RSI of 35. Pessimistic Scenario (Probability 15%): If geopolitical risks (the Middle East, Ukraine) or a rise in the US 10-year Treasury yield above 4.5 per cent (currently around 5.10 per cent – the data set shows 5Y at 5,098 per cent, no 10Y data but 30Y at 5,607%) were to dampen risk appetite, the BIST 30 could test the 14.000 psychological support level. If perceptions of systemic risk in the banking sector (NPLs, KGF premium increase) escalate, VAKBN could test 30 TL, AKBNK 60 TL and GARAN 110 TL. Invalidation Conditions: The base-case scenario is invalidated if the BIST 30 closes above 15.264.10 (yesterday’s close) on strong volume; the optimistic scenario is invalidated if the USD/TRY rises above 48,995; the pessimistic scenario is invalidated by a strong ‘bullish engulfing’ or ‘hammer’ formation at the 14.500 level, accompanied by a volume-driven rebound. Position size should be adjusted according to these scenarios; the cash allocation (there is no cash data in the portfolio, but performance comparisons indicate that cash and alternatives are outperforming) should be increased.

6. Recommended Stocks for the Day

The "general" signal in the provided technical screening and oscillator data set BUY orSTRONG BUY a share classified as is not available. Although BIMAS is the most likely candidate with a “NEUTRAL” stance (short-term=WAIT, medium-term=BUY, long-term=BUY), with WT=SELL, RSI=52, MACD=4.82, StochK=62, CCI=-13, ADX=17.53 (weak trend) and a channel position of 29 per cent, it is not generating a “BUY” signal. The other 29 shares are showing "SELL" or "STRONG SELL" signals. For this reason, the table has been left blank; opening new long positions is not recommended until market conditions improve (i.e. until the overall signal is at least "WAIT" or "BUY"). It is recommended to tighten stop-loss levels on risky positions in the current portfolio and to increase the cash weighting.