Deep Analysis

1. Market Summary and Overview

As of 19:47 on Friday, 9 October 2026, the BIST 30 (XU030) index stood at 15.145.27, trading almost flat with a 0.05 per cent rise compared to the previous close; the BIST 100 (XU100) index stood at 12.265.98, up by 0.43 per cent, signalling broader market participation. The USD/TRY exchange rate stood at 49.34, reflecting a 0.26 per cent rise compared to the previous close and indicating a slight depreciation of the Turkish lira; this is dragging down the XU030’s dollar-based performance by 0.21 per cent on a daily basis. The performance divergence between indices stems from the BIST 100’s weightings shifting towards non-banking mid-cap shares. The banking index’s weighted constituents (AKBNK, GARAN, YKBNK, ISCTR) are dominated by “STRONG SELL” signals in technical screening and oscillator data; Vakıfbank (VAKBN) stands out as the clearest example of sector-internal divergence with a “STRONG BUY” signal. In the energy and metals sectors, Tüpraş (TUPRS) and TR Anadolu Metal (TRMET) stand out with buy signals; whilst aviation, retail, telecoms, automotive and holding company shares are generally under selling pressure. On a macroeconomic level, Turkey’s year-end consumer inflation for September 2026 stood at 29.73 per cent (1.84 per cent month-on-month), whilst the policy rate was held steady at 37.0 per cent; with real interest rates still remaining positive, although the process of bringing inflation down to single-digit levels appears to be continuing. The US Fed rate stands at 4.0 per cent and the ECB rate at 2.65 per cent; whilst the DXY is trading relatively calmly at 102.12, Brent crude is trending upwards at 103.57 USD/barrel, driven by a geopolitical risk premium. Portfolio performance has shown a decline of 6.64 per cent since the start of 6 September 2026; this indicates that returns have (approximately -13.7 per cent based on the XU100 since the portfolio’s inception), whilst maintaining parity with the market on a daily basis (daily -0.20 per cent vs XU100 +0.43 per cent).

2. Sector-Based Evaluation

Banking

Sector is experiencing a sharp polarization between VAKBN's "STRONG BUY" (technical: short/medium/long BUY, WT BUY, channel 32%, r=0.76; oscillator: STRONG BUY, RSI 52, MACD +0.17) and AKBNK, GARAN, YKBNK, ISCTR's "STRONG SELL" (technical all SELL/WT SELL, oscillator STRONG SELL). VAKBN's 60-day return of +9.3% and its price at 33.9 TL being in the lower-middle band (32%) of the regression channel indicate trend-following strength (r=0.76). The other four major banks, although their channel positions are low (AKBNK 13%, GARAN 32%, YKBNK 24%, ISCTR 26%), have weak Pearson correlations (between 0.11-0.66) and ADX values (between 19-25) indicate weakening directional movement. Sectoral net position: Vakıfbank (VAKBN), weight avoidance.

Energy, Petrochemicals and Metals

TUPRS is maintaining its strong trend structure with a technical ‘BUY’ signal (medium/long-term BUY, WT BUY, channel 14 per cent, r=0.82); its 60-day return of +35.9 per cent and proximity to the lower band of the channel (14 per cent) present a pullback opportunity. Although the oscillators are ‘NEUTRAL’ (RSI 48.6, MACD -0.36, CCI -57, ADX 29.5), the high ADX supports the trend. TRMET is technically a “BUY” (medium/long-term BUY, WT BUY, channel 52 per cent, r=0.26) and receives double confirmation from the oscillators, which are “STRONG BUY” (RSI 54, StochK 38, CCI 46, ADX 18.7), receiving double confirmation; the low r value indicates that, despite the choppy price action, momentum is directional. PETKM, ENKAI and ASTOR form the weak end of the sector with “SELL” signals. In the EREGL metals sub-sector, the divergence between the technical “SELL” signal (channel 74 per cent, r = −0.76) and the “BUY” oscillator signal (RSI 49, StochK 33) is noteworthy; the high channel position and negative correlation are reinforcing selling pressure.

Aviation and Transport

TAVHL technical analysis: "NEUTRAL" (short-term BUY, medium/long-term HOLD, channel 62 per cent, r = -0.01) and oscillators "BUY" (RSI 53, MACD +0.38, StochK 67) and is relatively neutral. THYAO and PGSUS, on the other hand, are technically “STRONG SELL” (channel THYAO 66 per cent, PGSUS 6 per cent; r THYAO -0.88, PGSUS -0.82) and oscillator “STRONG SELL” (THYAO RSI 45, ADX 30; PGSUS RSI 33, ADX 28) and are in a deep downtrend. THYAO’s 60-day performance of -12.8 per cent and PGSUS’s -19.3 per cent, coupled with CCI values (THYAO -35, PGSUS -131) in the oversold region, suggest the possibility of a technical correction; however, there has not yet been a trend breakout (MACD: THYAO -3.13, PGSUS -4.07).

Holding Companies, Retail, Telecoms, Defence, Automotive

The holding pair KCHOL (technical SELL, oscillator SELL) and SAHOL (technical STRONG SELL, oscillator STRONG SELL) are under selling pressure; SAHOL’s channel stands at -2 per cent (below the lower band), and with CCI at -120 and ADX at 36, the trend appears very strong and the stock is in oversold territory. In the retail sector, BIMAS (technical SELL, oscillator SELL, RSI 43, CCI -106) and MGROS (technical STRONG SELL, oscillator STRONG SELL, RSI 39, CCI -94, ADX 34) are weak. In the telecoms sector, TCELL (technical SELL, oscillator STRONG SELL) and TTKOM (technical STRONG SELL, oscillator STRONG SELL) are under seller control. ASELS (technical STRONG SELL, oscillator STRONG SELL, CCI -104, ADX 26) has seen its technical structure break down despite defence spending coming to the fore. In the automotive sector, FROTO (technical SELL, oscillator SELL) and TOASO (technical STRONG SELL, oscillator STRONG SELL) are continuing their downward trend.

3. Technical Visual Analysis

EMA Arrangements and Wave Trend

VAKBN is confirming the strong uptrend by showing a “BUY” formation across all three EMA bands (short/medium/long); the WT “BUY” signal indicates that momentum is set to continue. TRMET is in a “BUY” position on the medium and long-term EMAs, and “WAIT” on the short-term EMA; this suggests that the trend may continue following a short-term consolidation. TUPRS is in a ‘WAIT’ position on the short-term and ‘BUY’ on the medium and long-term, indicating that the main direction of the trend is upwards and that a short-term pullback is natural. The shares in the ‘STRONG SELL’ group (AKBNK, YKBNK, ISCTR, SAHOL, ASELS, TOASO, TTKOM, PGSUS, THYAO, MGROS) all maintain an unbroken downward hierarchy, with all three EMAs showing a “SELL” or a mix of “SELL/WAIT” signals.

Regression Channel Positions and Pearson Correlation (r)

The channel position has been normalised within the range of 0 per cent (lower band) to 100 per cent (upper band). VAKBN at 32 per cent (lower-middle), TRMET at 52 per cent (middle) and TUPRS at 14 per cent (close to the lower band); these three shares are in healthy pullback/accumulation zones within their trend channels. Two types of positions stand out amongst the ‘STRONG SELL’ shares: SAHOL at -2 per cent (break below the lower band of the channel), MGROS at 69 per cent, THYAO at 66 per cent, and AEFES at 84 per cent (distribution/neckline formation near the upper band). The Pearson r value measures the linear strength of the trend; whilst VAKBN at 0.76 and TUPRS at 0.82 show very strong trend alignment, TRMET at 0.26 is weak, SAHOL at 0.11, THYAO at -0.88, PGSUS at -0.82 and MGROS at -0.91, indicating a strong inverse or weak correlation. In shares with negative r values (THYAO, PGSUS, MGROS, SISE, SASA, ASTOR), the price channel operates in reverse; that is, the upper band of the channel is not a resistance level, but may act as a breakout point for the trend.

Diverging Stocks

VAKBN is showing positive divergence as the sole ‘STRONG BUY’ signal, despite the banking index’s general ‘STRONG SELL’ sentiment. In the metals sector, whilst EREGL and KRDMD are ‘SELL’, TRMET is the sole stock issuing a ‘BUY’ signal (with a ‘STRONG BUY’ on the oscillator). TUPRS stands out with an isolated “BUY” signal in the energy/petrochemicals sector, whilst PETKM, ENKAI and ASTOR are “SELL”. These three shares are of critical importance for sector rotation and stock picking to generate returns (alpha) that outperform the index.

4. Oscillator and Momentum Readings

RSI and MACD Dynamics

VAKBN RSI 52.04 (neutral-bullish), MACD +0.17 (positive histogram), with momentum slightly in favour of buyers. TRMET: With an RSI of 54.02 and a MACD of -1.16 (negative but approaching zero), momentum has not yet fully reversed; meanwhile, StochK at 38.21 and CCI at 46.4 confirm an exit from oversold territory. TUPRS, with an RSI of 48.64, a MACD of -0.36, a CCI of -57.05 (oversold) and an ADX of 29.59 (strong trend), is signalling a deep pullback within the ongoing trend; this could present a buying opportunity. In the “STRONG SELL” group, the RSI generally lies within the 33–48 range (PGSUS at 33.81, the lowest), the MACD is strongly negative (SAHOL at -1.30, ASELS -7.16, MGROS -12.59, ASTOR -26.6) and the CCI ranges from -55 to -131 (PGSUS -131.71 being the most extreme). ADX values are above 25 for SAHOL (35.99), MGROS (34.87), ASTOR (37.02) and GUBRF (34.90); this indicates that the downtrends are very strong and are set to continue.

Stochastic and CCI Alerts

StochK is at 56.01 for VAKBN (neutral), 38.21 for TRMET (exiting oversold territory) and 33.91 for TUPRS (oversold threshold); this indicates a buying opportunity. In the sell group, StochK is generally very low within the 10–30 band (BIMAS 10.83, PGSUS 7.13, MGROS 13.00); whilst this may indicate oversold conditions, the high ADX and negative MACD keep the risk of ‘catching a falling knife’ very high. Whilst the CCI stands at 15.31 for VAKBN (neutral), 46.40 for TRMET (slightly bullish) and -57.05 for TUPRS (oversold); deeply negative values in the range of Fertiliser Factories (GUBRF) and Pegasus (PGSUS) confirm the strength of the trend.

Overbought/Oversold Zones

There are no shares in the overbought zone (RSI>70, StochK>80, CCI>+100); the market is generally under sellers’ control or neutral. In the oversold (RSI < 30, StochK < 20, CCI < -100) zone are PGSUS (RSI 33, StochK 7, CCI -131), MGROS (RSI 39, StochK 13, CCI -94), SAHOL (RSI 37, StochK 34, CCI -120), KCHOL (RSI 44, StochK 23, CCI -101), BIMAS (RSI 43, StochK 10, CCI -106), ASELS (RSI 43, StochK 29, CCI -104). A technical pullback may occur in these shares; however, taking a long position is risky without a trend breakout (MACD crossing above zero, EMA alignment ‘Buy’, WT ‘Buy’).

5. Risk Map and Scenarios

Base-Case Scenario (Most Likely Path: 55–60 per cent probability)

XU030 continues to trade sideways with low volume within the 15.000–15.300 range. USD/TRY remains within the 49.00–49.80 band. VAKBN accumulates within the 33.00–35.00 TL range and tests the 36.00 TL target. TRMET finds support in the 135.00–140.00 TL region and tests the 145.00 TL resistance level. TUPRS will consolidate within the 380.00–395.00 TL range and reaffirm the trend with a close above 400.00 TL. Selling pressure from the banking (AKBNK, GARAN, YKBNK, ISCTR), holding (SAHOL, KCHOL), aviation (THYAO, PGSUS) and retail (BIMAS, MGROS) sectors is weighing on the index. The cash ratio in the portfolio is increased; limit orders to buy on dips are left in place only for VAKBN and TRMET.

Optimistic Scenario (Concrete Condition Supporting the Outlook: 25–30 per cent probability)

XU030 breaks the 15.300 resistance with volume and opens the 15.600-15.800 target. USD/TRY retreats below 49.00 (XU030 in dollar terms turns positive). After the September inflation data (29.73%), the expectation that October monthly inflation will come below 1.50% (TÜİK data will be announced on November 5) triggers the real rate optimism. If VAKBN breaks 36.00 TL, the 38.00-39.00 TL targets come into play. TRMET's break of 145.00 TL brings 155.00-160.00 TL. TUPRS's persistence above 400.00 TL targets 420.00-430.00 TL. In the banking index, if AKBNK/GARAN turn from "SELL" to "WAIT" with a close above the 50/200-day EMA under VAKBN's leadership, the sectoral transformation begins.

Pessimistic Scenario (Risks Materialising: 15–20 per cent probability)

If the XU030 breaks through the 15.000 psychological support level, it will retreat to the 14.700–14.500 levels. USD/TRY tests the 49,209 level (geopolitical risk: US-Iran tensions, Brent above 105 USD). The CBRT signals an unexpected pause or cut in the policy rate (market pricing remains fixed at 37.0 per cent). If VAKBN closes below 32.50 TL, the “STRONG BUY” scenario is cancelled, and 31.00 TL will be tested. If TRMET closes below 130.00 TL, momentum is lost and the 125.00 TL support level is tested. A new low (lower low) begins to form in “STRONG SELL” shares (SAHOL, MGROS, PGSUS, ASELS). Portfolio stop-logic: A risk reduction (reducing the position by 50 per cent) is triggered on a daily close below 14.900 for XU030.

Conditions of Invalidity (Summary for the Table)

VAKBN: Daily close below 32.50 TL. TRMET: Daily close below 130.00 TL. TUPRS: Daily close below 375.00 TL (break below the lower band of the channel). General Market: XU030 daily close below 14.900.

6. Recommended Stocks for the Day