Daily Market Report

1. Executive Summary and Market Overview

The BIST 30 index, which has been following a strong cautious and selective trend, experienced a short-term breather while continuing its "Up Step Rule" effect throughout the past week, but could not completely eliminate the fundamental pressure created by macroeconomic uncertainties. The index is still moving within the boundaries of the oversold zone due to geopolitical risks (tensions originating from Iran) and the global energy shock (natural gas prices staying above 71 euros).

As emphasized in our previous analyses, the rebound seen on Friday is not a signal of a permanent trend reversal; it is rather considered a "breathing" period where volatility increased and investors attempted to reassess their cash positions. In the current market dynamics, investor psychology oscillates between "fear of missing out" and "opportunity seeking." From a fund management perspective, the index staying below the 16.730 level and the underperformance of energy-intensive sectors (EREGL, TUPRS) are still pushing the overall market towards a "safe haven" search.

Fundamental Perspective: The market requires a clear macro signal (ECB interest rate decision and US inflation data) and the index surpassing its key resistance levels (16.730) to establish a clear direction. Until this stage is reached, the strategy of "cash protection" and "focusing on core components (FMCG, Content, Safe Banks)" within the portfolio structure is the safest shield.

2. News and Macroeconomic Assessment

Geopolitical and Energy Agenda:
Escalating tensions originating from Iran and "economic war" rhetoric continue to negatively affect global risk appetite. This situation is particularly pressuring energy-intensive production and transportation sectors (EREGL, TUPRS, TOASO). However, the increase in Iraqi oil exports and the approach of EU exports to the $72 billion level positively affect the external balance, potentially easing the negative sentiment on the stock market.

Macroeconomic Spiral and Inflation:
Domestic macro data continues to worry investors. The inflation expectation remaining at the 28.4% level causes real returns to erode and leads investors to prefer cash assets. US inflation data and the ECB interest rate decision will be a critical test point next week. If global central banks raise interest rates, it could create a foreign source-based selling pressure on BIST.

News Flow and Investor Psychology:
The $1.1 billion source provided to Halkbank provides short-term support to the banking sector, but whether this support is a permanent reversal signal is debatable. Executive departures at OpenAI and fluctuations in global technology companies are limiting risk appetite. Investors are turning to safe havens like "cultural products" (BIMAS, KCHOL) and "gold" that offer high real returns.

3rd Technical Evaluation (Stock-based)

Within the framework of technical analysis, there is no clear strong buy signal across the index. However, certain stocks are diverging from the index and positioning themselves as "Safe Havens". Oscillator data and channel analysis are generating positive divergence signals in the following leader stocks:

• KCHOL (Holding): Last price 218.5 TL. Strong upward movement in its 60-day trend (+11.0%). RSI (61.08) and MACD positive. Short, medium, and long-term signals are at the BUY level. It forms a strong anchor position by being at the 64% of the channel.( Signal: STRONG BUY)

• BIMAS (Retail): Last price 414.25 TL. Stock stands out with its inflation resistance. RSI (58.17) and StochK (73.72) are in the buy zone. 60-day trend is positive at %+5.7.( Signal: STRONG BUY)

• GUBRF (Chemicals & Fertilizers): Last price 496.5 TL. RSI (62.21) and MACD (13.44) are giving strong buy signals. Positioned at the 84% level of the channel (upper band) to gain momentum.( Signal: STRONG BUY)

• TRALT (Industrial): Last price 52.4 TL. Among the strongest rising stocks with a 60-day trend of %+12.6. RSI (53.52) is in the buy zone.( Signal: BUY)

• PETKM (Energy): Last price 22.8 TL. RSI (68.72) and CCI20 (320.38) are in the overbought zone, but with a 60-day trend of +17.8, it's the stock with the highest return.( Signal: BUY)

On the other hand, aviation (THYAO, TAVHL), telecom (TTKOM, TCELL), and real estate (EKGYO) stocks are giving strong sell signals. Especially EKGYO's RSI (54.46) and channel position increase the risk of negative divergence.

4. Company and Financial Assessment

Company-based financial data emphasize the importance of a selective approach:

• KCHOL: With current assets of 16,730 billion TL, leading the sector. High current assets and strong balance sheet structure are the fundamental factors in prices surpassing the 215 TL support level.

• BIMAS: Current assets 152.41 billion TL. Its inflation resistance and strong pricing power continue to maintain profit margins.

• EREGL: Current assets are 265.47 billion TL. Under pressure from energy costs, it is struggling to maintain profitability. Technically, maintaining the 37.2 TL support level is critical.

• THYAO: Current assets are 512.19 billion TL. Geopolitical risks and high fuel costs are negatively affecting profitability ratios.

5. Risk Management and Strategy

Risks:
1. Global Recession Concerns: The ECB interest rate decision and US data could completely kill risk appetite.
2. Geopolitical Blow: Escalating tensions with Iran and rising energy prices could pressure industrial production.
3. Stop-Loss Adjustments: The volatility that may occur if THYAO (290 TL), KCHOL (210 TL) and EREGL (37 TL) levels are broken could shake portfolio value.

Strategic Approach:

• Leverage Avoidance: High leverage positions should be avoided in current uncertainties.

• Cash Position: Maintaining a high cash ratio (40%) is critical to hold liquidity during volatile periods.

• Selective Buying: Positions should only be held in "Safe Haven" stocks that show strong divergence in technical and fundamental analysis.

6. Recommended Model Portfolio

The model portfolio prepared above, in light of the technical signals, macro data, and risk management criteria, is below. The table only includes stocks that give STRONG BUY and BUY signals.

Total: 100%

Note: This report is not investment advice. It is a strategy document prepared for general informational purposes. Investors should act according to their own risk profiles.