Daily Market Report

1. Executive Summary and Market Overview

Markets are following a highly volatile and cautious path, dominated by global geopolitical risks and fluctuations in energy prices. After the downward pressure that has continued for the past week, the BIST 30 index has shown a slight recovery and rebound signal, reacting to the oversold zone with bargain hunting in recent days. However, whether this recovery will be a permanent trend reversal remains uncertain until global macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments become clearer. From a fund management perspective, the fundamental approach is a limited positioning strategy focused on risk aversion and liquidity, with selective purchases. As emphasized in previous analysis summaries, instead of panic selling, focusing on "safe haven" stocks based on technical and fundamental grounds and maintaining a high cash ratio to create a shield against market fluctuations emerges as the most suitable approach for the current environment. Among the day's most critical developments; the continuation of tensions in relations with Iran, the additional 1.1 billion USD funding provided to Halkbank, and the IMF Chairman's statements regarding the global economy's resistance to energy shocks. These developments have provided short-term support to the local banking sector and significantly suppressed global risk appetite.

2. News and Macroeconomic Assessment

The news flow shaping the agenda creates direct and indirect effects on BIST 30 companies. Two critical contacts from Iran and an "economic war" statement indicate deepening geopolitical risks in the region and create upward pressure on energy prices. This situation increases costs for energy-intensive industrial (EREGL, SISE, TUPRS) and airline (THYAO, TAVHL) companies, pressuring their margins. On the other hand, the additional 1.1 billion USD funding provided to Halkbank provides liquidity to the banking sector, reducing systemic risks and supporting confidence in the sector in the short term. Although this development creates some recovery potential for bank stocks (AKBNK, GARAN, VAKBN), it is not strong enough to completely change the overall market risk appetite. Macro-economically, inflation expectations remaining at the 28.4% level and the emphasis on structural reforms such as vocational training in the Medium-Term Program (MTP) create a long-term optimistic atmosphere. However, this optimism is limited in the short term due to high inflation negatively affecting consumer demand and corporate profitability. Uncertainty in markets before the Central Bank's September interest rate decision negatively affects investor psychology by creating a spiral of exchange rates and interest rates, weakening risk appetite. As a result, macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments paint a contradictory picture, causing investors to adopt a cautious and selective stance.

3rd Technical Evaluation (Stock-based)

The technical anatomy of leading stocks reveals a performance chart differentiated by sectors. Particularly, stocks that have shown strong performance in the last 5 days are also supported by technical indicators. TUPRS stands out in the energy sector; with a 5.01% increase in the last 5 days, it has risen to 414.25 TL, bringing its 60-day return to 83.8%. With an RSI value of 71.49, the stock also shows a strong upward signal in the MACD histogram. TUPRS is positioned at 46% within the channel and shows a very high degree of conformity with the trend with a Pearson correlation coefficient (r=0.97). When these data are combined, TUPRS gives a "STRONG BUY" signal technically. Sector peer PETKM has also shown an impressive performance; it has reached 25.9 TL with a 6.76% increase in the last 5 days. However, PETKM's RSI value of 78.52 has entered the overbought zone, which should be considered as it could create short-term profit-taking pressure. Retail and holding stocks like BIMAS and KCHOL, on the other hand, show a resilient performance against the index. BIMAS has risen to 427.5 TL with a 5.23% increase in the last 5 days and remains in a healthy buying zone with an RSI value of 66.1. KCHOL is trading at 223.7 TL, maintaining its 60-day trend and is at a high position of 79% within the channel. These stocks emerge as "safe havens" as supported by technical oscillators. Conversely, stocks like THYAO and MGROS maintain their technically weak appearance. THYAO's RSI value of 46.53 indicates selling pressure, while MGROS's RSI of 37.43 shows a significant downward momentum loss.

4. Company and Financial Assessment

When examining the financial health and profitability profiles of companies based on fundamental data, a significant divergence between sectors is observed. In an evaluation based on current assets, it is seen that holding companies like KCHOL and SAHOL have very strong balance sheet structures. KCHOL's massive current assets of 3.615.15 billion TL demonstrate the solidity of the company's intra-group operations and liquidity position. This structure makes KCHOL more resilient to market conditions. Similarly, SAHOL's current assets of 2.790.07 billion TL also prove its financial strength. In the energy and petrochemical sector, TUPRS attracts attention with both its technical performance and financial structure. TUPRS's current assets of 439.48 billion TL confirm its position as one of the important players in the sector. The recent high return of the company can be said to be a reflection of this financial strength. In the retail sector, BIMAS is one of the leaders with current assets of 152.41 billion TL. These companies' pricing power in the inflation environment and their ability to manage supply chains are important factors that increase their fundamental resilience. Looking at the banking sector, although the 1.1 billion USD funding provided to Halkbank has generally had a positive impact on the sector, the negative divergence of stocks like AKBNK and GARAN in the last 5 days reflects the market's cautious approach to the banking sector. This situation can be associated with concerns about banks' profitability due to uncertainties in the interest rate environment and credit risks.

5. Risk Management and Strategy

Current market conditions contain both downside and upside risks. When we evaluate short-term scenarios, downside risks are more prominent. The escalation of Iran-Israel tensions and its potential to push energy prices higher again is the biggest risk factor. If this scenario occurs, energy-intensive stocks like EREGL, SISE, THYAO could experience significant value losses. Additionally, rising global recession concerns and the resulting interest rate decisions from central banks could immediately negatively affect risk appetite, pulling down the BIST 30 index. The upside potential is more limited. If geopolitical tensions ease and energy prices stabilize, recovery movements could begin in sectors that are technically weak, such as banking and retail. In particular, stocks seen as "safe havens" like BIMAS, KCHOL, and TUPRS could outperform the index in such an optimistic environment. To create portfolio protection shields, the following strategies should be followed: First, maintain a high cash ratio (40-45%) to create purchasing power during market downturns and reduce portfolio volatility. Second, determine clear stop-loss levels for each stock and close positions disciplined at these levels. For example, critical support levels like 210 TL for KCHOL and 415 TL for BIMAS are vital for risk management. Third, completely avoid using leverage to minimize the risk of market volatility eroding capital. Finally, it's important to diversify the portfolio sectorally and not be overly dependent on a single sector.

6. Recommended Model Portfolio

The following model portfolio has been created by combining the analyses from the technical, fundamental, and risk management sections of the report. While the portfolio focuses on stocks giving "STRONG BUY" signals with high fundamental resilience, it aims to provide protection against market uncertainty with a high cash ratio (40%). Stock selections were supported by technical oscillators (RSI, MACD) as well as indicators like channel position and Pearson correlation coefficient, and their weights were distributed according to the strength of these signals.