Daily Market Report

1. Executive Summary and Market Overview

The BIST 30 index, under pressure from geopolitical risks and volatility in global energy markets, is following a volatile and cautious trend. The index is stuck at critical support and resistance levels before determining a specific direction. In this environment, market dynamics are shaped by a "safe haven" search, with stocks showing fundamental resilience and buy signals in technical indicators emerging as prominent. The fundamental perspective of fund management prioritizes capital protection in the face of current uncertainties, creating positions with selected and fundamentally supported levels. Among the recent developments, we can mention critical contacts with Iran, the additional 1.1 billion USD funding provided to Halkbank, and IMF statements about the global economy's resilience against energy shocks. The market is preparing for short-term fluctuations by focusing on inflation data and central bank policies in the US and Europe.

2. News and Macroeconomic Assessment

The recent news flow clearly reveals the risk and opportunity dynamics for BIST 30 companies. The potential escalation of tensions with Iran is creating a pressure factor on energy prices. While this creates cost pressure for energy-intensive industrial organizations, it can offer a short-term opportunity for energy producers. However, it should not be forgotten that geopolitical risks could weaken the demand conditions necessary for a sustainable rise. The macroeconomic front is facing a tough test with inflation expectations rising to 28.4%. This high inflation environment is pressuring consumer spending and questioning the pricing power of companies in the retail sector. Additionally, the minimum wage increase announced after the MTP (Medium-Term Program) risks fueling inflation expectations and leading to a decline in consumer confidence. On the interest rate front, the ECB's continued rate hikes against energy shocks and accelerating producer inflation in the US are tightening global liquidity conditions. This situation brings the risk of capital outflows and currency pressure for emerging markets. Investor psychology is shaped by risk aversion and liquidity search within this macroeconomic spiral.

3rd Technical Evaluation (Stock-based)

From a technical analysis perspective, the BIST 30 index is seen to be without a specific trend, with stocks showing different performances. While some stocks position themselves as "safe havens" by combining fundamental resilience with technical indicators, others are weakening under geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures. Below, the technical anatomy of leading stocks that are showing the most divergence, gaining volume, or testing critical levels is examined.

Stocks Giving Strong Buy Signals:

• TUPRS (Energy & Petrochemicals): The company is trading at the 416.75 TL level with a daily return of 0.60% and a 60-day return of 83.8%, maintaining its performance. It is giving a "BUY" signal in all time frames, short, medium, and long term. The Williams %R indicator is in a "BUY" position, and with a Pearson correlation coefficient (r=0.97), the price movement is extremely strong and is at 44% within the channel, maintaining its upward potential. TradingView oscillators also support this view; RSI 72.18 (near the overbought limit), MACD histogram 21.07, and Stochastic Oscillator at 78.94 indicate a strong buying momentum. Overall assessment: STRONG BUY.

• KCHOL (Holding): Halkbank shares are trading at 224.30 TL with a daily increase of 0.27%. Its 60-day return of 14.6% shows a fundamental breakthrough. The stock, which gives a "BUY" signal in all time frames, is at 77% within the channel, approaching the upper region of the upward channel. Pearson correlation (r=0.86) confirms a strong positive relationship. The oscillators also support the buy signal; RSI 66.39, MACD 5.12, and Stochastic 73.10. Overall assessment: STRONG BUY.

• BIMAS (Retail): BIMAS is trading at 430.00 TL with a daily increase of 0.58%, showing a performance above the index. Its 60-day return is 12.4%, and technical indicators are in "BUY" position in all time frames. It is in the final stage of the upward trend with a position of 83% within the channel. Pearson correlation (r=0.79) shows a strong relationship. The oscillators confirm a strong buying momentum with RSI 67.31, MACD 8.91, and Stochastic 94.37 (overbought). Overall assessment: STRONG BUY.

Stocks Giving Buy Signals:

• PETKM (Petrochemical): PETKM, with its recent 24.98 TL level, has shown a groundbreaking performance of 23.54% in the last 5 days. This rise has caused technical indicators to give a "BUY" signal. Its 60-day return is 17.8%. Its position within the channel and oscillators (RSI 71.19, MACD 1.08, Stochastic 88.10) support the buy signal. Overall assessment: BUY.

• GUBRF (Chemicals & Fertilizers): GUBRF is trading at 504.50 TL with a daily decrease of 1.46%. Its 60-day return has fallen to 0.3%. Despite giving a "BUY" signal in all time frames, its daily loss and weak 60-day performance are noteworthy. Pearson correlation (r=0.23) shows a weak relationship. The oscillators RSI 62.16 and MACD 15.65 maintain the buy signal. Overall assessment: BUY ( (due to fundamental strength, but weak performance).

Stocks Giving Strong Sell Signals:

• THYAO (Aviation & Transportation): THYAO, although showing a daily increase of 2.66% at the 299.25 TL level, is giving a "STRONG SELL" signal according to technical indicators. Its 60-day return is 2.6%. The Pearson correlation (r=-0.70) shows a negative relationship. Oscillators indicate strong selling pressure with RSI 44.83, MACD -3.34, and CCI -31.26. Overall assessment: STRONG SELL ( (due to exposure to geopolitical risks).

• ASTOR (Energy & Petrochemicals): ASTOR has suffered a significant value loss with a daily decrease of 4.84% at the 285.25 TL level. The stock, which gives a "SELL" signal in all time frames, is trading near the bottom region with a -1% position within the channel. The Pearson correlation (r=0.38) shows a weak relationship. Oscillators confirm strong selling momentum with RSI 36.39, MACD -5.63, and CCI -136.93. Overall assessment: STRONG SELL.

4. Company and Financial Assessment

Based on fundamental data, the financial health and profitability profiles of BIST 30 companies show significant differences. The total value of current assets provides important clues about a company's operational flexibility and liquidity position. In this context, holding companies such as KCHOL and SAHOL maintain their dominance in their sectors with their massive current assets worth billions of TL. KCHOL's 17,094 billion TL and SAHOL's 2,790 billion TL in current assets demonstrate that these companies have significant strength in terms of portfolio management and intra-group resource transfers. These companies provide fundamental stability through cash flows from various sectors in which they operate, such as banking, insurance, and energy.

On the other hand, the current assets of energy and petrochemical giants EREGL and TUPRS (265.47 billion TL and 439.48 billion TL) are directly related to economies of scale and market share in their sector. However, the profitability of these companies is extremely sensitive to volatility in crude oil and natural gas prices. Particularly, rising geopolitical risks can increase energy costs, pressuring the margins of these companies. Companies operating in the retail sector like BIMAS and MGROS, although having smaller current assets (152.41 billion TL and 88.38 billion TL), are directly affected by changes in consumer spending. In a high inflation environment, the pricing power and cost management in their supply chains are critically important for these companies. Overall, when financial ratios are examined, energy and financial holdings stand out in terms of balance sheet strength, while retail and real estate companies are in a more vulnerable position against macroeconomic conditions.

5. Risk Management and Strategy

Under current market conditions, risk management has become an indispensable strategy for capital preservation. Short-term possible scenarios are shaping up with downside risks outweighing upside potential. Escalating geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices could pull the BIST 30 index down to the 17,094 level. In this scenario, a selling pressure could be led by energy-intensive industrial stocks (EREGL, TOASO) and airline companies exposed to geopolitical risks (THYAO). Additionally, increasing concerns about global recession and adverse effects of US/ECB interest rate decisions on the market could reduce risk appetite, triggering a search for liquidity.

It is essential to create portfolio protection shields against these downside risks. The most basic shield is a high cash and short-term bond ratio. At least 40% of the portfolio should be held in liquid assets to keep the necessary capital ready for creating buying opportunities when the market falls. The second shield is strict stop-loss levels. If the expected stop levels for stocks in the model portfolio (for example, 210 TL for KCHOL, 415 TL for BIMAS) are breached, positions should be closed automatically. This prevents the loss from growing and protects capital. Finally, leverage should be completely avoided. When uncertainty is high, leveraged positions can cause the portfolio to erode quickly if the market moves against it. The strategic advice is to maintain a cautious stance, high liquidity, and focus only on stocks that give the strongest signals technically and fundamentally.

6. Recommended Model Portfolio

The following model portfolio has been created based on the technical and fundamental analysis of the report. The portfolio prioritizes stocks giving "STRONG BUY" signals with high fundamental resilience and is balanced with a 40% cash ratio for risk management. Weights are distributed according to signal strength, Pearson correlation coefficient, and position within the channel.