Weekend Agenda

1. Weekend Agenda Summary

This weekend's agenda presents a picture where geopolitical risks and central bank monetary policies are decisive in global markets. Particularly, the tension between the US and Iran and discussions regarding the Strait of Hormuz are pushing oil prices up again, while the volatility in the dollar index is putting pressure on emerging market currencies. Domestically, the downward trend in gold prices and assessments that financial conditions are easing are coming to the forefront.

We start the week under the shadow of selling pressure in global bond markets and geopolitical developments. In Turkey, attention will be on the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) interest rate cut expectations and the activity in the housing market. In the real estate sector, Emlak Konut GYO's major buyback program is being evaluated as a confidence signal in the sector.

2. Economy & Finance (Turkey)

Assessments from international investment banks indicating that domestic financial conditions have loosened became one of the important topics of the weekend agenda [BloombergHT]. On the gold side, while questions about whether the downward trend will continue remain on the agenda, it is stated that the gap between gram gold and world prices has closed [BloombergHT, CNN Türk]. In addition, the decision to import 480 thousand head of male beef cattle planned for 2027 stands out as a development that will create debate in the agriculture and livestock sector [CNN Türk]. The launching of the UAB MAVİ VATAN ship built with domestic design was recorded as an indicator of domestic production moves in the defense industry [CNN Türk].

3. Money & Currency

While comments are made that the backdrop of the controlled rise in Dollar/TL has changed, the dollar index's (DXY) test at the 100 level and the Fed's hawkish stance became the main agenda of global money markets [Investing TR Forex]. JPMorgan shaped domestic interest rate expectations by announcing that it expects two more rate cuts from the CBRT [Doviz.com]. In the US, durable goods orders exceeding forecasts stands out as another factor supporting dollar safe-haven demand [Doviz.com]. Looking at the performance of investment instruments over the weekend, while there were capital inflows and outflows in the stock market, the decline in gold appears to be in the focus of investors [Paranın Yönü, CNN Türk].

4. Real Estate

A busy weekend was experienced in the housing market. Emlak Konut GYO's launch of a massive 1 billion TL share buyback program was regarded as a confidence message from one of the sector's leading players [Para Analiz, ticarigm360.com]. Minister Kurum's good news of a 25 percent discount for TOKİ debtors and the announcement that a draw will be held for 1.602 housing units in Istanbul are among the important developments for those who want to become homeowners [İşin Detayı Gayrimenkul]. Housing prices rising by 23 percent in August shows that price pressure in the market continues [İşin Detayı Gayrimenkul]. On the global side, the sharp fall in house prices in London's most expensive neighborhoods stands out as a striking piece of data [herbiremlak.com].

5. Trade & Foreign Trade

No significant development stood out in trade and foreign trade this weekend.

6. Geopolitical & Global Economy

Geopolitical risks remain the main driver of global markets. The deadlock in US-Iran talks and threats regarding the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent oil prices above $105 [Invezz]. This situation has also drawn the attention of institutions like Morgan Stanley, with analyses being made that oil price risks are increasing [İstanbul Ticaret Gazetesi]. Geopolitical risks and bond pressure negatively affect Asian stock markets, while comments are made that the selling in global bond markets are like 'secret cables' connecting the entire economy [Yeni Şafak, marketplace.org]. The US's support for Elon Musk's appeal against the 120 million euro EU penalty imposed on X has started a new debate on technology and regulation [BBC Business].

7. New Week Agenda

• Petrol Prices: The flow of news on US-Iran tension and the Strait of Hormuz will determine whether Brent oil can maintain its trajectory above $105.

• Dollar Index (DXY): DXY's resistance at the 100 level and the Fed's hawkish statements will continue to affect emerging market currencies and USD/TL.

• CBRT Interest Rate Expectations: Following JPMorgan's expectation of two interest rate cuts, market pricing and possible verbal guidance will be closely monitored.

• Gold Prices: Whether the downward trend will continue will be followed depending on global risk appetite and the course of the dollar.

• Housing Market: The effects of Emlak Konut GYO's buyback program, details regarding TOKI interest discounts and lottery draws will be on the agenda.

• Global Bond Market: "Whether the rise in bond interest rates will continue is of critical importance in terms of global growth and inflation outlook."

This content was compiled by artificial intelligence from weekend news; it is for informational purposes only, not investment advice.

News sources:

• Economy & Finance (Turkey): BloombergHT, CNN Türk, HaberTürk

• Real Estate: Google News · Real Estate, İşin Detayı Gayrimenkul

• Money & FX: Doviz.com, Investing TR Forex, Paranın Yönü

• Geopolitics: AA Güncel, DW Türkçe, Google News · Geopolitics

• Global Economy: BBC Business, Google News · World (EN)