1. Weekend Agenda Summary
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Fund investigations at the center of internal finance: While Vakıfbank CEO made a statement, TBB Chairman said the crisis will not negatively affect the banking sector; arrest warrant issued for 4 people including MHK Chairman.
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Inflation-focused opening: September inflation will be announced at the beginning of the new week; ING Global's forecast and currency effect are being discussed.
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Double dynamics on the global side: US non-farm employment fell below expectations while bond volatility pressured stock markets; DXY's 100 level is a test issue.
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G7 move in oil: Following Trump's Iran remarks, G7 will release crude oil and diesel to the market; An attack on a tanker in Oman increased supply security concerns.
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Signals of slowdown in domestic demand: Automotive sales fell by 24.33% in September, consumer credit growth slowed sharply, and TL deposit interest rates reached their lowest level since 2023.
2. Economy & Finance (Turkey)
Fund investigations were the main topic of the weekend: While TBB Chairman Çakar stated that the crisis will not negatively affect the banking sector [BloombergHT], Vakıfbank CEO Arslan also made a statement; Arrest warrant came for MHK Chairman Ferhat Gündoğdu and 4 people [Habertürk]. TCMB granted an activity permit to an electronic money institution [BloombergHT], Borsa İstanbul closed the week with a rise [CNN Türk]. On the domestic demand side, the September contraction in the automotive market was noteworthy; sales fell by 24.33% [CNN Türk]. Energy diplomacy also accelerated: Minister Bayraktur met with Iraqi Oil Minister Hüdeyir [CNN Türk].
3. Money & Currency
The "controlled rise" picture continues in Dolar/TL; market participants are discussing the inflation report's exchange rate guidance [Investing TR Forex]. Globally, DXY's test of the 100 level, Fed hawkishness and geopolitical risks are on the agenda; "whether the dollar's safe-haven premium has ended" is being questioned [Investing TR Forex]. On the TL side, deposit interest retreated to its lowest level since 2023 [Paranın Yönü], while growth in consumer loans sharply slowed [Paranın Yönü]. As ING Global's September inflation forecast for Türkiye shapes the ceiling of expectations [Doviz.com], Bitcoin surpassed 86 thousand dollars again [Paranın Yönü].
4. Real Estate
On the public side, Minister Kurum's 25% discount news for TOKI borrowers came to the fore [İşin Detayı Gayrimenkul]; Emlak Konut GYO is starting a 1 billion TL share buyback program
News sources:
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Economy & Finance (Turkey): BloombergHT, CNN Türk, HaberTürk
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Real Estate: Google News · Real Estate, İşin Detayı Gayrimenkul
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Money & FX: Doviz.com, Investing TR Forex, Paranın Yönü
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Trade & Foreign Trade: Google News · Trade
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Geopolitics: AA Güncel, DW Türkçe, Google Haberler · Geopolitics, Hürriyet Dünya
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Global Economy: BBC Business, Google News · World (EN)