Weekend Agenda

1. Weekend Agenda Summary

• The decisive news of the weekend was the agreement Trump announced with Putin on Russian diesel supply; while Russia partially lifted its diesel export ban, Zelenskiy criticised this step as a gift to Putin.

• The geopolitical risk premium was reflected in energy and precious metals: Brent exceeded 102 dollars and volatility in gold prices continues.

• On the dollar side, the test at the 100 level in DXY and the possible regime change debate at the Fed are shaping the global perception of risk.

• In Türkiye, the October Rent Increase Cap, the TCMB's Revocation of the Operating Licence of an Electronic Money Company and the Ministry of Trade's September Foreign Trade Data Stood Out.

• BM's 2026 global growth forecast of 2.6% and its pessimistic comments on the bond market show that the week is being entered with a cautious outlook.

2. Economy & Finance (Turkey)

On the regulatory front, the CBRT's revocation of an electronic money company's operating license drew attention; the Fund Coordination Committee also held its fourth meeting (Doviz.com). The conditions and deadlines for joining the E-Tebligat system were set (BloombergHT). On the household side, a 36% real loss in second-hand vehicles over the last 19 months stood out (CNN Türk), while pensioner holiday bonus payment dates were also on the agenda. The Interior Ministry's announcement of the seizure of assets worth 5 billion TL was among the notable financial developments of the weekend.

3. Money & Currency

In forex commentary, whether the dollar's "safe-haven premium has ended" and the squeeze at the 100 level in DXY are being debated; the dollar is trying to regain strength with Fed hawkishness and geopolitical risks (Investing TR Forex). It is emphasized that the controlled uptrend in Dollar/TL continues and that the CBRT Inflation Report will be decisive for the exchange rate path. In the Fed's report, the message that US revenues are rising while debt pressure grows stands out (Paranın Yönü). Gold prices were followed live; movement was observed via gram, quarter and republic gold (CNN Türk).

4. Real Estate

The October rent increase ceiling has been announced; the effects of the ceiling application on the rent side will be discussed (İşin Detayı Gayrimenkul). Globally, it is noted that housing prices in London have started to decline and market balances are shifting (Google Haberler · Emlak). In Turkey, a giant project aimed at the center of İzmir and Sinpaş's holiday home concept being introduced to business representatives are among developments showing sustained investor interest.

The 5th Trade & Foreign Trade Ministry published its September data bulletin; the divergence in expectations in the export-import survey draws attention (Sabah, AA). Sectoral export stories stood out: fresh vegetable exports reached 822.7 million dollars in 9 months, a surplus of 22.6 million dollars was achieved in lipstick exports over 5 years, and the watch market rose to 1.5 billion dollars; the sector's target is 2.35 billion dollars (CNN Türk). In regional data, Erzincan's August export-import figures were released.

6. Geopolitical & Global Economy

Trump's diesel purchase agreement from Russia and the "millions of tons" shipment message, along with Zelenskiy's reaction to the easing of sanctions, formed the global weekend agenda (BBC Business, Paranın Yönü); Germany announced it would remain committed to sanctions despite the agreement (BloombergHT). Trump's statement that "it's time for Ukraine to get a new president" also increased tension. On the regional side, the Houthi attack on Riyadh airport resulted in 12 dead and 309 wounded, and the airport was temporarily closed (DW, BloombergHT). In oil, geopolitical risk and supply constraints pushed Brent above 102 dollars; comments that supply is strong but risk persists dominate (Ekonomist, CNBC-e). In the global picture, the UN trade body's 2026 growth forecast being cut to 2.6%, weakness in US consumer confidence, "chaos" warnings about the bond market, the IMF-World Bank Bangkok meetings, and OMFIF's message of "storms behind resilience" combine to paint a cautious outlook (Reuters, Economic Times, Globe and Mail).

7. New Week Agenda

• Details of the Trump-Putin diesel agreement and the impact of Russia's partial lifting of the export ban on supply and fuel prices; locally, the price path will be followed after a 6.40 TL rise in diesel and a 96-cent cut in gasoline.

• The Impact of the Tension on the Zelenskiy-Trump Line and of Germany's Firmness on Sanctions on the Markets and the Energy Premium

• The durability of Brent's stay above $102 and the volatility of the geopolitical risks beneath it.

• The 100 level test in DXY, Fed hawkishness and the regime change debate; how the controlled appreciation scenario in USD/TRY will evolve within the framework of the CBRT Inflation Report.

• The Cabinet Meeting in Türkiye and the Statements to Follow; Tracking of the Agenda of the Fon Koordinasyon Kurulu (Fund Coordination Council).

• The messages that will come out of the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok; global growth assessments after the UN's 2.6% growth forecast for 2026.

• Detailed assessments of the Ministry of Trade's September data and the direction indicated by the foreign trade expectations survey.

• Discussions on the effects of the October rent increase cap on implementation in real estate.

This content was compiled by artificial intelligence from weekend news; it is for informational purposes only, not investment advice.

News sources:

• Economy & Finance (Turkey): BloombergHT, CNN Türk, HaberTürk

• Real Estate: Google News · Real Estate, İşin Detayı Gayrimenkul

• Money & Currency: Doviz.com, Google Haberler · Döviz, Investing TR Forex, Direction of Money

• Trade & Foreign Trade: Google News · Trade

• Geopolitics: AA Güncel, DW Türkçe, Google News · Geopolitics

• Global Economy: BBC Business, Google News · World (EN)