Weekend Agenda

1. Weekend Agenda Summary

• Markets passed with a risk-off tone: While Borsa Istanbul experienced a sharp decline, the index fell to the lowest level in the last 16 months in dollar terms, i.e., the lowest level since June 2025.

• On the exchange rate side, the "controlled rise" debate continues; BBVA's warning that the depreciation in TRY could accelerate and DXY's test at the 100 threshold formed the global focus.

• Geopolitical-energy tension was decisive: Brent exceeded 102 dollars, ship attack reports around Hormuz reached a record level.

• On the domestic front, credit quality and fund transparency came to the fore: while non-performing consumer and SME loans rose, the TLY fund opened without SPK permission and political warning messages occupied the agenda.

• The gap in foreign trade is widening: while imports became more expensive, exports decreased; on the volume side, a level of 865 billion dollars was announced.

2. Economy & Finance (Turkey)

The sharp decline in the stock market was the prominent development of the weekend; the index fell to its weakest level in a long time in dollar terms (CNN Türk; Doviz.com). Around the Official Gazette, the extension of the company minimum capital compliance period and SPK's approval of two capital increases stood out, while the inclusion of Hedef Portföy funds in the ordinary liquidation process reminded of the congestion in the fund sector (BloombergHT). On the real wages and employment side, the employment of 31.054 contracted health personnel for 2027 and the regulation on civil servant overtime pay were brought to the agenda (BloombergHT; CNN Türk). On the consumption and credit side, along with Istanbul's spending leadership, the personal loan non-performing ratio reaching a historic peak and the risk in SME loans rising above the 10-year average drew attention (Paranın Yönü).

3. Money & Currency

Debates on controlled rise in USD/TRY continue; Investing analyses emphasize that the "behind the scenes" of the rise in the exchange rate has changed and that DXY is being tested at the 100 threshold with Fed hawkishness and geopolitical risks (Investing TR Forex). BBVA's Turkish lira assessment included a warning that depreciation could accelerate (Doviz.com). On the fund front, it was reported that 20 billion TRY was withdrawn from the TLY fund opened without SPK permission in the same month (DW Türkçe); President Erdoğan both said that those making money through market frauds "will definitely pay the price" and gave the message that "the fund problem has been brought under control" (Doviz.com; Paranın Yönü). On the global side, comments that the dollar's "safe-haven premium" is being questioned and that expectations of a change of guard at the Fed are fueling exchange rates came to the fore (Investing TR Forex).

4. Real Estate

While it is reported that the real decline in housing continues, the October rent increase ceiling was announced; the combined course of the two constitutes the main agenda of the rental and purchase markets for the new week (Habertürk; İsinDetayı Gayrimenkul). On the mass housing front, Eminevim achieved its 600.000th delivery (Sözcü Emlak). In Istanbul, the opportunity to become a homeowner with the Bahçeada project came to the agenda (Sözcü Emlak).

5. The Ministry of Trade & Foreign Trade's September data bulletin and the export-import survey were published; the widening "gap" where expectations diverge, imports becoming more expensive while exports decrease, draws attention (Anadolu Ajansı; Sabah; Cumhuriyet). Minister Bolat announced that the foreign trade volume reached 865 billion dollars; assessments that the volume is progressing towards the level of 1.2 trillion dollars also took place on the agenda (Yeni Şafak; Vietnam.vn). On the other hand, Turkey's exclusion from automotive incentives due to Germany's "Made in Europe" concession to France stands out as a risk to be monitored in the new week in terms of export expectations (DW Türkçe).

6. Geopolitical & Global Economy

The energy-geopolitical axis was decisive: Brent exceeded 102 dollars; although supply appears strong, geopolitical risk continues (Ekonomist; CNBC-e). While ship attack reports around Hormuz reached a record level, it was reported that oil exports slowed; Novak's finding that the global diesel supply gap has reached a quarter of world trade and warnings about physical market tensions keep the possibility of an oil shock for the global economy on the agenda (BBC Business; BloombergHT; Energy Connects). While the IMF draws attention to global risks stemming from the correction in the artificial intelligence market, wars, and debt, on the Fed front, Warsh's comments, whose name comes to the fore, regarding the "resilience" of the world economy fuel the monetary policy agenda (Reuters; Yahoo Finance). At the EU summit, the US-Russia rapprochement and the Starlink crisis left their mark; the UN Security Council held a "color-coded" preliminary vote for the first time for Guterres' successor; the Palestinian Monetary Authority reported that the banking sector is ready to lead in the reconstruction of Gaza (DW Türkçe; AA).

7. New Week Agenda

• Inflation: The approach of the October inflation announcement and the reading of the Inflation Report on the exchange rate side (CNN Türk; Investing TR Forex).

• Exchange Rate: DXY's test at the 100 threshold, the dollar's safe-haven demand, and the reflection of BBVA's TRY depreciation warning on the course.

• Stock Market: Recovery attempt after sharp decline; whether the index's weakness in dollar terms will continue.

• Fund sector: Steps to be taken by the CMB regarding the TLY fund debate and the functioning of the Target Portfolio liquidation process.

• Oil/energy: Brent's trading above $102, reports of ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact of diesel supply gap news on pricing.

• Foreign trade: Details of September data, diverging survey expectations, and the implications of Turkey's automotive sector being left out under the "Made in Europe" scope.

• Credit quality: The trend in non-performing consumer and SME loan ratios.

• Energy investments: Bringing to the agenda the process of doubling natural gas production with the Osman Gazi era in the Black Sea.

• Global: Messages from leaders after the IMF's risk warnings, expectation of an additional tax on banks in the UK budget, developments on the EU–US–Russia line, and signals of a possible leadership change at the Fed (BBC Business; Reuters).

This content has been compiled from weekend news with artificial intelligence; for informational purposes

News sources:

• Economy & Finance (Turkey): BloombergHT, CNN Türk, HaberTürk

• Real Estate: Google News · Real Estate, İşin Detayı Gayrimenkul, Sözcü Emlak

• Money & FX: Doviz.com, Investing TR Forex, Paranın Yönü

• Trade & Foreign Trade: Google News · Trade

• Geopolitics: AA Güncel, DW Türkçe, Google Haberler · Geopolitics, Hürriyet Dünya

• Global Economy: BBC Business, Google News · World (EN)