Weekend Agenda - 2026-10-18

1. Weekend Agenda Summary

Geopolitical tension was decisive: Trump signing the decree suspending sanctions on Russia, mutual statements on the Iran-US front and the Strait of Hormuz risk brought oil to the center of the agenda as Brent rose above $102.
In money markets, DXY's test at the 100 level and the "changing of the guard" debates at the Fed led to comments questioning the dollar's safe-haven status; the emphasis on a "controlled rise" in USD/TRY came to the fore.
While the downtrend in the Turkish stock market continues, attention turned to inflation; after the flood disaster, support packages were announced directing 80 million lira to tradespeople and 40 million lira to the three affected provinces.
The foreign trade picture weakened: while the export expectation fell, the import expectation rose, and export and import volumes contracted in TÜİK indices.
While the real decline in housing continues, the October rent increase cap has been determined; on the global side, the IMF drew attention to an AI-driven market correction, war and debt risks.

2. Economy & Finance (Turkey)

The downtrend in the stock market continues and next week attention turns to the inflation reading [CNN Türk]. The economic footprint of the flood disaster is widening: support of 80 million lira for tradespeople [BloombergHT], allocation of 40 million lira to three provinces [Doviz.com] and damage notification warnings [Paranın Yonu] stand out, while Meteoroloji's yellow and orange coded warnings for 45 provinces keep operational risk on the agenda [Doviz.com]. On the regulatory front, Takasbank clarified claims regarding TPP and TEFAS [CNN Türk], the SPK filed criminal complaints for two stocks and imposed a two-year trading ban [Paranın Yonu], and a fine of 15.2 million lira was imposed for a non-compliant advertisement [BloombergHT]. On the corporate side, the compliance period for companies' minimum capital was extended and the tax-premium debt limit in public tenders was raised [Doviz.com]; in contrast, the peak in the NPL conversion rate for consumer loans points to pressure in individual financing [Doviz.com]. Also, the 14.6% decline in electric vehicle charging consumption in September was recorded as data reminding of the cooling on the consumer side [CNN Türk].

3. Money & Currency

While the 100 level in DXY was described as a "test," comments stood out that the dollar regained strength with Fed hawkishness and geopolitical risks, while its safe-haven premium was questioned [Investing TR Forex]. The controlled rise in USD/TRY continues and what the Inflation Report says about the exchange rate is a topic of debate [Investing TR Forex]; another analysis emphasizes that the squeeze in DXY amplifies global risks and that "the backdrop of the dollar" has changed [Investing TR Forex]. On the gold side, gram, quarter and Republic prices remained a tracking headline throughout the week [CNN Türk]; the overseas exit fee was also one of the headlines concerning citizens' pockets [CNN Türk].

4. Real Estate

While the news that the real decline in housing continues formed the sector's main headline [Habertürk], the determination of the October rent increase cap reopened the tenant-landlord balance for debate [İşin Detayı Gayrimenkul]. On the project side, news promoting homeownership opportunities via Bahçeada in Istanbul [Sözcü Emlak] and the announcement that Eminevim reached its 600.000th delivery drew attention [Sözcü Emlak]. Reading the real value loss together with the rent cap appears set to determine the pulse of the housing market in the coming period.

5. Trade & Foreign Trade

The gap in foreign trade widened: while imports became more expensive, exports decreased [Cumhuriyet]; TÜİK indices also confirmed the contraction in export and import volumes [Dünya Gazetesi]. The survey published by the Ministry of Trade shows the divergence in expectations — while the export expectation fell, the import expectation rose [Sabah; Dünya Gazetesi]. From the Asian front, news that the import-export volume is advancing toward the $1.2 trillion level and Nam A Bank strengthening export/import financing through its JPMorgan partnership stood out as indicators of regional trade vitality [Vietnam.vn].

6. Geopolitical & Global Economy

Russia sanctions set the global agenda for the weekend: Trump signing the decree suspending sanctions [Paranın Yonu; DW Türkçe], followed by Rubio's message that the economic impact will be assessed, keeps the question of how the sanctions card will be used alive [AA]. On the Iran-US front, the statement "we can stay in Iran a little longer" [BloombergHT] and Tehran's message "we announced the program, the choice is America's" [Habertürk] combined with markets focused on the Strait of Hormuz and oil; Brent exceeding $102 [Ekonomist] and drone attacks in Russia targeting an oil terminal and a data center [AA] sharpened the supply security debate. While Goldman Sachs' expectation of a decline in oil offers a cautious counter-reading against this picture [Paranın Yonu], Israel's continued attacks on Gaza despite the ceasefire maintains humanitarian tension [AA]. In the global economy, the IMF drew attention to an AI-driven market correction, war and debt risks [Reuters], while rising inflation pressure in the US [Economic Times], China and AI worrying financial leaders [BBC Business], banks in the UK expecting high taxes from the budget [BBC Business] and Heathrow's third runway expected to contribute to growth [BBC Business] paint a risk-filled but dynamic picture; the Yellow Vests returning to the streets in France shows that social tension continues in Europe [DW Türkçe].

7. New Week Agenda

Inflation reading: It is expected that whether the downtrend in the stock market will break and the signals that will direct the exchange rate will become clear with the inflation data [CNN Türk; Investing TR Forex].
DXY's struggle at the 100 level, the hawkishness–changing of the guard debates at the Fed and the persistence of the dollar's safe-haven premium [Investing TR Forex].
Oil front: The Strait of Hormuz risk, the impact of attacks on oil terminals in Russia on supply, and the price action where Goldman Sachs' decline expectation will be tested [Ekonomist; AA; Paranın Yonu].
Assessments from Washington on the economic impact of Russia sanctions and statements on the Iran-US front [AA; DW Türkçe; Habertürk].
Foreign trade: Confirmation by data of the export–import expectation divergence in the ministry survey and the continuity of the contraction in TÜİK indices [Dünya Gazetesi; Cumhuriyet].
Damage assessment after the flood disaster, the flow of insurance damage notifications, and the implementation of support payments [Paranın Yonu; BloombergHT].
The reflection of the October rent increase cap in housing on implementation and the course of real decline discussions [İşin Detayı Gayrimenkul; Habertürk].
The reflection of the peak in the non-performing loan conversion rate for consumer loans on the data flow [Doviz.com].
The course of the Yellow Vests' actions in France and social tension in Europe [DW Türkçe].
Tax expectations for banks in the UK and budget discussions; the reflections of the artificial intelligence correction pointed out by the IMF and debt risks on global markets [BBC Business; Reuters].

This content was compiled by artificial intelligence from weekend news; it is for informational purposes only, not investment advice.

News sources:

Economy & Finance (Turkey): BloombergHT, CNN Türk, HaberTürk
Real Estate: Google News · Real Estate, İşin Detayı Gayrimenkul, Sözcü Emlak
Money & Currency: Doviz.com, Google Haberler · Döviz, Investing TR Forex, Direction of Money
Trade & Foreign Trade: Google News · Trade
Geopolitics: AA Güncel, DW Türkçe, Google News · Geopolitics
Global Economy: BBC Business, Google News · World (EN)