Weekend Agenda

1. Weekend Summary and General Assessment

• Global risk appetite: Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and oil prices climbing to $110-$116 levels increased demand for safe havens (CNN Türk Finans, Finans Hattı).

• Central banks in focus: In the final days of the week, markets turned their attention to the interest rate decisions to be announced next week (BloombergHT).

• Inflation and money markets: The Dollar/TL breaking above the 45 band and squeeze signals in the DXY showed that energy and Fed pressure remain in effect (Investing TR Forex, Doviz.com).

• Earnings season: While profit increases are seen in sectors outside banks, losses in the stock market continue (BloombergHT, CNN Türk).

• Real estate market: While housing prices rose 22.5%, a real‑term decline of 6.2% occurred; innovations such as the "metreküp" sales model attracted attention in the sector (İndigo Dergisi, İşin Detayı Gayrimenkul).

• Trade balance: Turkey rose to 5th place in trade with the EU, while the import-export margin narrowed and new financial partnerships came to the agenda (CNN Türk, Vietnam.vn).

• Artificial intelligence and long-term risk: Bill Gates warned that artificial intelligence could cause 20 years of economic and social upheaval; meanwhile, AI-biosecurity laboratory investments are on the agenda (BloombergHT, BBC Business).

2. Economy & Finance (Turkey)

During the week BloombergHT focused on topics such as "Which investment instrument earned what?" and the effects of the "Made In Europe" strategy on the AB automotive market; this shapes sector‑based return expectations and export orientations. Bill Gates' warning about the long‑term volatility risk of artificial intelligence fueled debates on risk management of technology investments. Central banks' focus on next week's interest rate decisions led investors to reassess their risk appetite (BloombergHT). Bakan Şimşek emphasized that Türkiye ranks high in the IMF's Mali Şeffaflık Değerlendirmesi; this carries a signal that external financing costs may improve. While profits of non‑bank companies rose during the earnings season, the stock market and gold closed the week with losses; the dollar and euro gained value (CNN Türk). Moreover, the increase in wheat production and the construction of new facilities at Hatay Havalimanı show that agricultural and infrastructure spending will support the economy (CNN Türk). Moody's negative outlook on Fransa's rating reminds of uncertainty in Avrupa credit markets (BloombergHT).

3. Money & Currency

Gold prices as of 13 Ekim are trading at 6,641 TL per gram and 4,189 $ per ounce; this indicates investors' search for precious metals instead of foreign currency (Haber Ege). The breach of the 45 band in Dolar/TL and tightening signals in DXY show that energy and Fed policies still pressure the TL (Investing TR Forex). ING reported that safe‑haven preferences have changed, while S&P Global emphasized that risks in the Turkish banking sector are at a manageable level (Doviz.com). Card payments approached 3 trillion TL in September, reinforcing the cashless trend in consumer spending (Doviz.com, Paranın Yönü). The agreement between Türk Eximbank and EDC stands out as a step to strengthen foreign trade financing (Doviz.com). New forecasts from foreign investors toward the TCMB and the IEA's expectation that the energy crisis will persist in 2027 increase uncertainty in markets (Doviz.com). The launch of Togg's "Kehribar" series brings to the agenda the potential of domestic automotive to reduce foreign exchange needs (Doviz.com).

4. Trade & Foreign Trade

Türkiye rose to the position of the fifth country with the highest imports and exports by the AB, reinforcing its strategic importance in foreign trade relations (CNN Türk). However, the widening of the foreign trade deficit, the rising cost of imports and the narrowing of exports together created tension in the trade balance (Cumhuriyet). As import‑export volume approaches 1.2 trillion $, Nam A Bank's partnership with JPMorgan Chase aims to increase international payment and financing capacity (Vietnam.vn). TÜİK's foreign trade indices show that both export and import volumes have decreased; this may reflect a global demand slowdown (Dünya Gazetesi). Trump's customs duty change on Canadian products creates a new price dynamic in ABD‑Kanada trade (Dünya Gazetesi). UNCTAD's "Global Trade Update" report stresses that developing countries need to link their biodiversity potential to trade (UNCTAD). İngiltere's 20.4 billion sterling employment target and the transfer of Hugo Boss's control to the British signal that sectoral competition in Avrupa is being reshaped (Dünya).

5. Real Estate

While housing prices showed an annual increase of 22.5%, a real‑term decline of 6.2% occurred; this reveals that purchasing power has eroded despite nominal prices rising due to inflation (İndigo Dergisi). The "positive developments" in China's real estate market and the slowing of price declines may point to a parallel softening process in regional real estate trends to Türkiye (Vietnam.vn). It was reported that finding homes below 3 million TL on property listing sites has become harder, and the "metreküp" sales model was introduced as a new category in the sector (İşin Detayı Gayrimenkul). Eminevim's 600.000th delivery demonstrates the scalability of urban housing projects (Sözcü Emlak). Region‑focused campaigns such as the garden‑island opportunity in İstanbul increase price pressure in high‑demand inner‑city areas (Sözcü Emlak). The continuation of the real decline in housing may lead investors to reassess rental yields and long‑term value expectations (Habertürk).

6. Geopolitics

Rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices to the $110‑$116 range, causing volatility in global energy markets (Sunsirs, Finans Hattı). The sharp rise in Brent oil prices combined with a large increase in freight costs lifted shipping and trade costs (Goldman Sachs, İstanbul Ticaret Gazetesi). The stability of oil prices despite geopolitical risks signals a new balance search in markets' risk premium calculations (Memurlar.Net). US inflation data exceeding expectations and tensions in the Middle East boosted safe‑haven demand, lifting gold prices to 6.652 TL/gram (Instagram). These developments show that investors need to closely monitor the balance between energy supply security and geopolitical risks (Ekonomist).

7. Global Economy & Markets

The UK's £100 million investment plan in AI and biosecurity highlights that technology‑security integration is becoming a new focal point (BBC Business). Nvidia's role in AI financing is being tested as neoclouds enter the market, while Apple's lead in market‑value competition is increasing volatility in tech stocks (CNBC Business). Moody's confirmed that the negative outlook on France's credit rating is maintained, and European banks' Q3 earnings missed expectations, indicating that regional credit risks persist (Moody's, MarketWatch). Trump's changes to Canadian tariffs are reshaping US‑Canada trade flows; at the same time, AI‑focused regulatory debates are adding new parameters to investors' risk management (CNBC Business). The growing popularity of AI‑themed ETFs signals that fund managers are turning to thematic investments (MarketWatch). These dynamics, together with next week's central bank decisions and global inflation data, will shape market directions.

8. New Week Agenda

• Central banks' interest rate decisions and monetary policy statements (Turkey, USA, Europe).

• US inflation data and the Fed's policy signals; DXY and dollar/TL movements.

• Oil prices and developments in freight costs; the impact of Middle East geopolitical tensions.

• AI regulations, biosecurity laboratory investments, and technology companies' quarterly results.

• Turkey-AB trade volume, new foreign trade financing partnerships (Nam A Bank‑JPMorgan) and the trajectory of the foreign trade deficit.

• Housing prices, "cubic meter" sales model and new housing law proposals; real price trends in the real estate market.

• Expectation that the international energy crisis will continue until 2027 and the macroeconomic effects of energy prices.

This content was compiled by artificial intelligence from weekend news; it is for informational purposes only, not investment advice.

News sources:

• Economy & Finance (Turkey): BloombergHT, CNN Türk, HaberTürk

• Real Estate: Google Haberler · Real Estate, Google Haberler · Housing, İşin Detayı Gayrimenkul, Sözcü Emlak

• Money & Currency: Doviz.com, Google Haberler · Gold, Investing TR Forex, Paranın Yönü

• Trade & Foreign Trade: Dünya, Google Haberler · Global Trade, Google Haberler · Customs, Google Haberler · Trade

• Geopolitics: AA Güncel, DW Türkçe, Google Haberler · Geopolitics, Google Haberler · Middle East

• Global Economy: BBC Business, CNBC Business, MarketWatch