Weekend Agenda - 2026-10-25

1. Weekend Summary and General Assessment

The main theme of the weekend was the decisive impact of geopolitical tensions on pricing in global markets; particularly the tension on the Iran-US line and the increasing risk perception toward the Strait of Hormuz led to sharp and directional moves in commodity prices.
Oil prices rose above $110, reaching a new 5-month high amid rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East; the large increase in freight costs and supply security concerns created new question marks about the global inflation outlook.
While gold and silver experienced a sharp pullback, the rise in oil and natural gas created a mixed picture in commodity markets; this was interpreted as a signal of a shift in investors' safe-haven preferences.
On the Fed front, expectations of rates being held steady strengthened, while new Fed Chair Warsh's statements focusing on data increased uncertainty about the future of monetary policy; markets began discussing the possibility of a rate hike in December.
As the Dollar Index (DXY) tested the critical 100 level, the dollar's safe-haven premium and its trajectory against the TL are being reshaped along the axis of energy prices and inflation pressure; USD/TL is trading above the 45 band.
On the Turkey side, headlines on initial calculations for the minimum wage hike, pension salaries, and the cancellation of GSS debts stood out, while the widening of the trade deficit in foreign trade drew attention.
In global markets, signals that trade wars could reignite ahead of the US midterm elections, budget debates in the UK, and the head-to-head presidential race in Brazil are among the main agenda items for the new week.

2. Economy & Finance (Turkey)

One of the most talked-about headlines domestically over the weekend was the initial calculations for the 2027 minimum wage hike; the meeting schedule and the possible hike rate are on the agenda of millions of workers ([CNN Türk]).
On the public finance side, it was shared that the 2027 budget allocations for universities were planned and the highest share was allocated to Ankara University, while news that GSS debts would be cancelled was recorded as a significant development in social security ([CNN Türk]).
A positive picture was drawn for reducing external dependence in energy; Minister Bayraktar emphasized that the domestic share in electricity exceeded 70% and that this is critical for independence ([CNN Türk]).
On the agriculture and food side, it was stated that annual wheat production would exceed annual demand and per capita production of 288 kilogram was expected, while the tender date for TİGEM's sale of 211.9 tons of sunflower oil was announced ([CNN Türk]).
Infrastructure investments retained their place on the agenda; Minister Uraloğlu announced that the countdown had begun for the new facilities at Hatay Havalimanı, while it was shared that the new road opened in Çankırı reduced a 45-minute journey to 24 minutes ([CNN Türk], [Doviz.com]).
In financial markets, card payments approaching 3 trillion lira in September signaled consumer vitality, while S&P Global's assessment that risks in the Turkish banking sector are at a manageable level stood out as a positive note for the sector ([Doviz.com]).

3. Money & Currency

USD/TL settled at a new psychological level after surpassing the 45 threshold; behind this rise, the pressure created by rising energy prices on the TL and the strengthening of the global dollar due to the Fed's hawkish stance were effective ([Investing TR Forex]).
As the Dollar Index (DXY) tests the 100 level, debate continues over whether the dollar's safe-haven premium has ended; geopolitical risks and the flag change at the Fed continue to be decisive on the dollar's direction ([Investing TR Forex]).
On the gold side, gram gold retreated to 6,641 TL and ounce gold to 4,189 dollars, seeing the lowest level of the last 3 months; experts draw attention to critical levels for investors following this decline ([Haber Ege], [CNN Türk]).
According to ING's assessment, investors' safe haven preference is changing; this situation is interpreted as a reflection of the underlying retreat and the strengthening of the dollar ([Doviz.com]).
On the corporate side, the reasons behind companies' tendency to use dollar and euro loans instead of TL are examined, while the potential effects of this situation on the exchange rate are discussed ([Investing TR Forex]).
The memorandum of understanding signed between Türk Eximbank and the Canada Development Bank EDC opens a new cooperation door in the financing of foreign trade, while the announcement of the decision in the Martı TAG case also found a place on companies' agendas ([Doviz.com]).

4. Trade & Foreign Trade

A gap opened in Turkey's foreign trade; imports became more expensive while exports decreased, and according to the foreign trade indices announced by TÜİK, both export and import volumes experienced a decline ([Cumhuriyet], [Dünya Gazetesi]).
Nevertheless, Turkey's maintenance of its position as the fifth country with the most imports and exports to the European Union demonstrates the strength of integration in trade ([CNN Türk]).
In global trade, news that trade wars in the US could reignite after the elections and that customs duties could increase brought the protectionism risk back to the agenda ([İstanbul Ticaret Gazetesi]).
Reports that the bill for Trump's trade war has emerged point to the economic cost of the imposed taxes, while the White House's removal of customs duties on certain Canadian goods ahead of the midterm elections signals an election-focused flexibility in trade policy ([Dünya Gazetesi], [BBC Business]).
UNCTAD's October 2026 Global Trade Update, focusing on how developing countries can use their biodiversity potential in trade, highlighted the intersection of trade with sustainability.
The large increase in freight costs and Goldman Sachs' risk warning for the oil market emerged as a factor increasing the pressure of logistics costs on trade flows ([İstanbul Ticaret Gazetesi]).

5. Real Estate

In Turkey, while housing prices rose 22.5% year-on-year, it was reported that a real decline occurred after adjusting for inflation and that this decline continued ([İndigo Dergisi], [Habertürk]).
Prices on listing sites show that finding housing below 3 million TL has become more difficult; this is assessed as an indicator of how much housing purchasing power has eroded, especially in large cities ([Emlak Kulisi]).
A notable innovation in the sector was the introduction of the "cubic meter" concept in real estate sales for the first time in Turkey; how this new category will be received in the sector is a matter of curiosity ([İşin Detayı Gayrimenkul]).
On the housing finance side, Eminevim's completion of its 600.000th delivery was recorded as a milestone demonstrating the scale of the system in the sector ([Sözcü Emlak]).
Globally, positive developments were reported in China's real estate market and the decline in housing prices slowed, while the entry of more than 18.000 rental homes onto the market in Vietnam points to activity on the supply side ([Vietnam.vn]).
News about Bahçeada opportunities for those wanting to own a home in Istanbul stood out as a reflection of demand shifting outside the city, while the heading "Share Allocated to the Future" also drew attention to the sector's need for long-term planning ([Sözcü Emlak]).

6. Geopolitics

The most critical geopolitical development of the weekend was US President Trump's new ultimatum to Iran and his statement "I have a possibility of bombing Iran again"; this rhetoric emerged as the main factor fueling tension in the Middle East ([BloombergHT], [HaberTürk]).
The record-level ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and comments that the strait's management "will not be as before" are assessed as the biggest threat to global energy supply security ([Paranın Yönü], [BloombergHT]).
On the İran front, the denial of claims that Cumhurbaşkanı Pezeşkiyan's visit to Rusya and that İran conveyed a new offer to ABD shows how complex diplomatic channels are; the claim that Qatari mediators went to Tahran indicates that diplomatic traffic remains active ([BloombergHT], [AA Güncel]).
On the İsrail front, the claim that İran could orchestrate an attack during Netanyahu's election campaign and the Beyaz Saray's viewing of this as a "sign of helplessness" reveals that the election process is intertwined with geopolitical risks ([AA Güncel]).
Besides the conflicts in the region, the news that the Hanzala hacker group shared a secret audio archive belonging to the İsrail government, reflected in the Iranian media, reminded that cyber warfare is also part of the geopolitical struggle ([AA Güncel]).
As a direct result of these developments, while oil prices stayed above 110 dollars, the geopolitical risk premium reflected on commodity prices and interest rate concerns in the global bond market ([Şarkul Avsat Türkçe], [GZT]).

7. Global Economy & Markets

While the search for direction continues in global markets, oil and geopolitical risks became the main determinants of the agenda; while Brent petrol traded above 110 dollars, the sharp decline in gold and silver drew attention ([CNN Türk Finans], [ABC Haber]).
In the ABD, ahead of the midterm elections, the Beyaz Saray's removal of customs duties on certain Canadian goods was assessed as an election-focused move in trade policy, while Trump's announcement at a campaign rally that Audi would open its first factory in the ABD kept the investment and production agenda busy ([BBC Business], [DW Türkçe]).
In İngiltere, as budget negotiations were discussed ahead of income tax increases, the news that a budget of 1 billion pounds would be allocated for social and affordable housing came to the fore ([BBC Business]).
The second round of the head-to-head presidential election between Lula and Bolsonaro in Brezilya became another critical political development closely watched by global markets ([DW Türkçe], [CNBC Business]).
Ahead of the week when more than a third of S&P 500 companies will report earnings, it is noted that market confidence is fragile and earnings expectations will be closely monitored ([MarketWatch]).
Technology and energy investments maintained their place on the agenda; while it was announced that İngiltere would invest 100 million pounds in an artificial intelligence biosecurity laboratory that will be a "world first", Suudi Arabistan's announcement that it intercepted missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles belonging to Iranian-backed Husi forces kept regional risks alive ([BBC Business], [CNBC Business]).

8. New Week Agenda

Fed's interest rate decision and new Chairman Warsh's guidance: Markets will watch Fed officials' speeches for expectations of rates being held steady and a possible hike signal for the Aralık ayı.
Geopolitical developments and oil prices: Iran-ABD tension, security risks in the Hürmüz Boğazı, and possible diplomatic initiatives will continue to be decisive on the direction of oil prices.
ABD midterm election trade policy: Possible new announcements on customs duties and election-focused political moves could affect global trade flows.
Domestic minimum wage and pension expectations: Initial calculations for the 2027 minimum wage hike and announcements regarding pension increases in the Ocak ayı will be critical for the trajectory of domestic demand.
Global earnings season: The third-quarter results to be released by a large portion of S&P 500 companies could determine market direction, especially in the technology and energy sectors.
Reflection of Brezilya election results on markets: The outcome of the Lula-Bolsonaro race could be influential on emerging markets and global risk appetite.
Türkiye's foreign trade data and inflation outlook: The widening in the foreign trade scissors and energy-driven cost pressures will be closely monitored for their effects on the TL's trajectory and the current account balance.

This content was compiled by artificial intelligence from weekend news; it is for informational purposes only, not investment advice.

News sources:

Economy & Finance (Turkey): BloombergHT, CNN Türk, HaberTürk
Real Estate: Google Haberler · Real Estate, Google Haberler · Housing, Sözcü Emlak, İşin Detayı Gayrimenkul
Money & Currency: Doviz.com, Google Haberler · Gold, Google Haberler · Currency, Investing TR Forex, Paranın Yönü
Trade & Foreign Trade: World, Google Haberler · Customs, Google Haberler · Global Trade, Google Haberler · Trade
Geopolitics: AA Güncel, DW Türkçe, Google Haberler · Geopolitics, Google Haberler · Middle East
Global Economy: BBC Business, CNBC Business, MarketWatch