1. Market Summary and Overview
On Thursday, September 24, 2026, at 08:00, the BIST 30 index rose from 16.217.83 to 16.370.07, recording a daily increase of 0.94%. The BIST 100 index closed at 13.251.85 with a 0.40% increase. Throughout the day, markets followed a positive trajectory, supported by the recovery in global risk appetite and strong performance in local sectors. Particularly, the energy and retail sectors stood out, while slight fluctuations were observed in banking and telecommunications stocks. Despite inflation and interest rate pressures, the market is seeking recovery in selected stocks against the uncertainty created by macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments.
2. Sector-Based Evaluation
According to heatmap and signal density data, the best-performing sectors of the day were Retail and Energy & Petrochemicals. In the retail sector, BİM (BIMAS) gave a "STRONG BUY" signal, with a 60-day return of 19.5%, positioning it as the sector leader. In Energy & Petrochemicals, Tüpraş (TUPRS) attracted attention with a 60-day return of 80.7%, but its technical signal was determined as "BUY". In the banking sector, "BUY" and "WAIT" signals were dominant, with short-term recovery signals observed in stocks like Vakıfbank (VAKBN) and Akbank (AKBNK). In the defense industry, Aselsan (ASELSAN) gave a "WAIT" signal, while other sector representatives showed weak performance. The weakest sectors were Telecommunications and Food & Beverage. Türk Telekom (TTKOM) and Turkcell (TCELL) closed with "SELL" signals, while Anadolu Efes (AEFES) gave a "STRONG SELL" signal.
3. Technical Visual Analysis
When evaluating EMA sequences, Wave Trend (WT), and regression channels together, it is seen that the BIST 30 index maintains its medium-term upward trend. The index's position above the 16.000 level presents a technically solid picture. Tüpraş (TUPRS) stock is at the 11% level of the regression channel, with Wave Trend giving a "BUY" signal, indicating the stock has short-term recovery potential. Petkim (PETKM) is at the 67% level of the channel with a WT "SELL" signal, technically in a resistance zone. BİM (BIMAS) stock is at the 66% level of the channel with a WT "BUY" signal, in a strong upward trend. In banking stocks, Vakıfbank (VAKBN) is at the 61% level of the channel with a WT "BUY" signal, while Akbank (AKBNK) is at the 64% level with a WT "BUY" signal, giving a recovery signal. Aselsan (ASELSAN) is at the 40% level of the channel with a WT "BUY" signal, standing out in the defense industry. Among diverging stocks, Tüpraş's excessive rise and Petkim's weak performance are noteworthy.
4. Oscillator and Momentum Readings
Oscillator readings show that some stocks have entered the overbought zone. For Tüpraş (TUPRS), RSI 59.49 and MACD 14.06 values indicate that the stock has strong momentum but is approaching the overbought zone. For Petkim (PETKM), RSI 57.07 and Stochastic K 28.61 show that the stock remains in the middle zone and maintains its upward potential. For BİM (BIMAS), RSI 61.15 and Stochastic K 82.76 indicate that the stock is in the overbought zone and carries a risk of short-term correction. For Vakıfbank (VAKBN), RSI 53.71 and MACD 0.56 indicate that the stock maintains its upward trend but momentum is weakening. For Akbank (AKBNK), RSI 54.67 and CCI 68.05 show that the stock has strong momentum and the upward trend may continue. For Aselsan (ASELSAN), RSI 49.86 and MACD -1.76 indicate that the stock is showing weak performance and its upward trend could break. Overall, oscillator readings show overbought pressure in energy and retail stocks, while the upward trend continues in banking stocks.
5. Risk Map and Scenarios
In the upside scenario, the BIST 30 index is expected to test the 16.500 level and see new highs. This scenario can be supported by continued global risk appetite and improvement in local macroeconomic data. Strong performance in energy and retail stocks could be a catalyst for the index's rise. In the downside scenario, there is a possibility of the index falling below the 16.000 level and entering a new correction cycle. This scenario could be triggered by weakening global risk appetite or higher-than-expected inflation data in Turkey. Weak performance in banking and telecom stocks could accelerate the index's downward movement. As a split strategy, long positions can be opened in energy and retail stocks, while short-term trading can be done in banking stocks. Critical levels to watch; the 16.500 resistance and 16.000 support level. The index will determine its short-term direction by breaking or holding these levels.
6. Recommended Stocks for the Day
| Stock | Signal | Base Scenario | Optimistic Scenario | Invalidation Condition | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIMAS (BIM Inc.) | STRONG BUY | BIM continues its upward trend towards the 450 TL mark whilst maintaining its position in the retail sector. | If the consumer confidence index comes in above expectations and BİM increases its market share, the stock price could reach 480 TL. | If the stock price falls below the 420 TL support level or if selling pressure occurs in the sector overall. | RSI (61.15) and MACD (7.39) indicators point to a strong upward momentum. 60-day return is 19.5%, making it the sector leader. It's within the channel (66%) and Wave Trend gives a "BUY" signal. |
| KRDMD — KARDEMİR D.Ç. | STRONG BUY | Kardemir targets the 50 TL level with demand recovery in the metal market. | Increasing global steel demand and the company's expanding profit margins could push the stock to 55 TL. | In case of an unexpected increase in raw material costs or a weakening in steel demand. | RSI (57.45) and Stochastic K (70.06) are giving buy signals. 60-day return is 17.3%. Within the channel (53%) and Wave Trend "AL" signal. High correlation with the index with a Pearson value of (0.76). |
| VAKBN (VAKIFBANK Inc.) | STRONG BUY | Vakıfbank rises to the 36 TL level by maintaining its net interest margins in a high-interest environment. | Credit growth coming in above expectations and the bank's improving asset quality could carry the stock to 38 TL. | If the Central Bank's interest rate decisions fall below market expectations or credit risk premiums rise. | RSI (53.71) and MACD (0.56) indicators support the upward trend. Within the channel (61%) and Wave Trend "AL" signal. It stands out in the banking sector with a 60-day return of 5.3%. |
| PETKM — PETKİM PETROKİMİA | STRONG BUY | Petkim progresses towards the 25 TL level by managing the volatility in energy prices. | Rising international oil prices and the company's increasing export revenues could push the stock to 27 TL. | If a sharp drop in energy prices or cost pressure from the exchange rate negatively affects the stock performance. | RSI (57.07) and MACD (0.43) indicators point to buying pressure. 60-day return is 20.4%. It draws attention with a daily increase of +9.94%. |
| TUPRS (TÜPRAŞ A.Ş.) (company) | BUY | Tüpraş seeks balance at the 420 TL level by consolidating after a massive 60-day rally of 80.7%. | The continuation of the increase in global demand and the expansion of refinery margins could carry the stock back to 450 TL. | In case of a correction in energy prices or an increase in geopolitical risks, the stock may pull back. | It is the sector leader with a 60-day return of 80.7%. At the 11% level of the channel and giving a Wave Trend "AL" signal. However, RSI (59.49) is close to the overbought zone, requiring caution. |