Deep Analysis

1. Market Summary and Overview

October 5, 2026, Monday, 12:42 (Turkey time) - BIST 30 (XU030) last close 15.514.20 | previous close 15.205.39 | daily +2.03%. BIST 100 (XU100) last close 12.491.09 | previous close 12.270.18 | daily +1.80%. USD/TRY 49,135 | previous 49.12 | daily +0.08%. XU030 daily performance in USD terms +1.95% (TL return adjusted for exchange rate movement).

During the trading session, the BIST 30 index showed a narrow rise with a daily increase of 2.03%. The 1.95% return in USD terms is explained by the slight depreciation of the TL, while the only 0.08% increase in USD/TRY indicated stable market liquidity. The 1.80% rise in BIST 100 points to more limited participation compared to BIST 30's performance; this suggests that the index's rise was driven mainly by a few large codes within BIST 30.

From a sectoral perspective, technical scan signals are concentrated with "BUY" and "STRONG BUY" predominantly in banking (Yapi Kredi), real estate (Emlak Konut GYO), aviation (TAV Airports), metal-mining (Kardemir, Eregli Demir Celik), and defense (Aselsan) stocks. On the other hand, "SELL" and "STRONG SELL" signals dominate in codes such as energy-petrochemicals (Astor Enerji), finance-other (Destek Finans Faktoring), and aviation (Turk Hava Yollari).

In the macro environment, September consumer inflation showed a slight slowdown at 31.51% annually (1.84% monthly), while producer inflation continued its upward trend at 27.95% annually (2.57% monthly). With the policy rate remaining steady at 37.0%, deposit rates declined to 43,795%, while consumer loan rates remained high at 64.74%. Loan growth continues at 2.3% annually, and M3 money supply is up 29.71%. This structure offers an environment where funding costs for the banking sector may improve slightly, but loan demand could slow down.

As for exchange rate movement, USD/TRY showed limited weakness with a 0.08% increase, while the 0,1743% decline in DXY indicates a slight decrease in global risk appetite. The real effective exchange rate remained unchanged from the 23.47 index level; this provides a competitive advantage for exporters while increasing cost pressure on producers using imported inputs.

In summary, the rise of BIST 30 with narrow participation is based on the performance of a limited group of stocks giving technical "BUY" signals. Macro data show that although consumer-side inflation is slowing, producer prices still create pressure, while credit conditions are tending to soften. In this framework, the sustainability of the market movement depends on the ability of codes giving "BUY" signals to broaden participation and on macro risks (inflation, exchange rate, loan growth) maintaining stability.

2. Sector-Based Evaluation

2.1. Hot Sectors (BUY signal density)

In these sectors, the "BUY" signal is supported by both technical screening (WT=BUY) and the oscillator (oneri=BUY or STRONG BUY). Channel percentages show how much of the relevant technical channel the price occupies; the 40%-60% range indicates that the price is near the middle of the channel and that there is sufficient room for a potential breakout or continuation move. Particularly in metals-mining, Ereğli Demir Çelik being at 83% within the channel indicates that the price is approaching the upper boundary and that the risk of a resistance breakout is high.

2.2 Weak Sectors (SELL/STRONG SELL code count)

"SAT" signals are prevalent in these groups; prices approaching the upper boundary of technical channels (e.g. THYAO at 93 per cent) indicate a risk of overbought conditions. Furthermore, low channel percentages (e.g. ASTOR at 7 per cent) indicate that the price is close to the lower boundary and that ‘bottom’ (bottom-buy) strategies may still be valid. However, the negative trend in MACD and ADX values, coupled with “STRONG SELL” signals, indicates that momentum is weakening and the likelihood of a pullback is high.

2.3. Sector Rotation Risk

The combined weighting of sectors issuing ‘BUY’ signals on the BIST 30 remains below 30 per cent. This situation threatens the sustainability of the index’s rise, which is driven by limited participation. If the prices of stocks carrying a "BUY" signal hit the upper limit of their trading channel (for example, EREGL at 83 per cent), this could trigger short-term profit-taking and cause the index’s rise to slow down. On the other hand, the energy-petrochemicals and finance-other stocks issuing “SELL” signals may present bottom-buying opportunities with their low channel percentages (ASTOR 7 per cent, DSTKF 3 per cent); however, the realisation of these opportunities will only be possible if macroeconomic risks (high inflation, exchange rate fluctuations) ease.

3. Technical Visual Analysis

3.1. EMA Configurations and Trend Direction

Technical screening data summarizes the short-medium-long term EMA (Exponential Moving Average) directions with expressions such as "short=HOLD, medium=BUY, long=BUY". The "BUY" direction indicates that the price is trading above the relevant EMA and that the uptrend is still active. Particularly in tickers such as Kardemir (KRDMD), Ereğli Demir Çelik (EREGL) and Aselsan (ASELS), the "BUY" signal of the medium- and long-term EMA confirms that the price is positioned within the long-term trend.

3.2. Wave Trend (WT) and Signal Alignment

WT signals are categorised as ‘BUY’, ‘SELL’ or ‘BUY ON DIP’ based on the price’s wave structure. Shares issuing a "BUY" signal (YKBNK, EKGYO, TAVHL, EREGL, KRDMD, ASELS, TCELL) are also in line with the oscillator’s ‘BUY’ signal; this dual confirmation increases the likelihood of a short- to medium-term uptrend.

Whilst Astor Energy (ASTOR) is showing a ‘Buy on Dip’ (WT=DIP) signal, there is a contradiction as the oscillator is in ‘Sell’ territory; this suggests that the likelihood of the price recovering from its low is low.

3.3. Regression Channel and Pearson’s r

The price’s position within the regression channel is given as ‘channel %’; the 40–60 per cent range indicates a mid-position, whilst a value above 80 per cent indicates the price is approaching the upper limit. The Pearson r value measures how closely the price is correlated with the regression line; values close to +1 indicate a strong positive correlation, whilst values close to -1 indicate a negative correlation.

• High Positive r: Tüpraş (r = 0.88), Koç Holding (r = 0.77) and Yapı Kredi (r = 0.64). These stocks show that the price movement is tightly tied to the regression line and the trend's sustainability is high.

• Low/Negative r: Ereğli Demir Çelik (correlation coefficient r = ‑0.77), Turkcell (r = ‑0.77), Aselsan (r = 0.30). A negative r indicates that the price tends to deviate from the regression line, i.e. volatility and reversion risk are high.

3.4. Diverging Stocks

Divergence occurs when there is inconsistency between technical signals (WT=BUY) and Pearson r values. For example:

• EREGL: WT=BUY, but r = -0.77 and channel 83% (near the upper band). This combination suggests the price may be emerging from a short-term bottom, while also signaling that the long-term trend is weakening.

• TCELL: WT=BUY, r = -0.77, channel 79%. Similarly, a high channel percentage and negative correlation increase the risk of a pullback after a short-term rise.

These diverging stocks, despite the "BUY" signal, offer risky opportunities for portfolio managers as codes that need careful monitoring.

4. Oscillator and Momentum Readings

4.1. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

Stocks with RSI values in the 50-55 range show neutral momentum. Among the stocks giving "BUY" signals:

• YKBNK: RSI = 53.09 – approaching the slightly overbought zone.

• EKGYO: RSI = 52.49 – a similar position.

• TAVHL: RSI = 51.78 – neutral.

• EREGL: RSI = 51.72 – neutral.

• KRDMD: RSI = 51.40 – neutral.

• ASELS: RSI = 51.35 – neutral.

• TCELL: RSI = 50.72 – neutral.

Since RSI above 70 (overbought zone) has not yet been observed, the risk of a short-term pullback is low, but the sustainability of the rally needs to be supported by volume and other indicators.

4.2. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

MACD values are generally negative (e.g., TCELL -0.87, TAVHL -1.47) or very low positive (YKBNK +0.17). Negative MACD indicates bearish momentum, while positive but low values (YKBNK, VAKBN) point to a slight upward tendency. In particular, YKBNK' s positive MACD provides momentum support consistent with the technical "BUY" signal.

4.3. Stochastic K (StochK)

StochK values are in the 50-66 range; values above 80 do not produce an overbought signal.YKBNK ( 66.67) and ASELS ( 66.57) have the highest StochK values, which indicates there may be short-term overbought pressure. However, StochK remaining within the 20-80 range signals that the risk of an extreme momentum breakdown has not yet materialized.

4.4. CCI20 (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period)

CCI20 values are generally negative (e.g., YKBNK -31.53, ASELS +28.57). Positive CCI20 indicates the price is above the average, while negative values indicate the price is below the average.ASELS' ASELS's +28.57 CCI20 confirms that the price is in a strong position within the trend, while YKBNK' YKBNK's -31.53 value indicates that the price carries short-term decline potential.

4.5. ADX (Average Directional Index)

ADX measures trend strength; the 20-25 range means a "weak-moderate" trend, and 25-40 means a "strong" trend.YKBNK ( 20.69) and EKGYO ( 17.89) show a weak trend with low ADX values, while ASELS ( 25.92) and TCELL ( 27.52) indicate the presence of a stronger trend. This shows that price movement is more stable in the defense and telecommunications sectors.

4.6. Summary

" Stocks carrying a "BUY" signal are seen together with RSI in the neutral-slightly overbought zone, MACD mostly negative but with a slightly positive tendency, StochK in the 50-70 range, and ADX between 20-30. This combination indicates that the rally has not yet formed full momentum accumulation, but technical and oscillator signals are harmoniously aligned in the "BUY" direction. Investors are advised to set stop-loss levels, especially for codes with negative Pearson r and high channel % values (EREGL, TCELL), against the risk of short-term pullbacks.

5. Risk Map and Scenarios

5.1. Upside Scenario (Optimistic)

• Condition: " If the prices of codes carrying a "BUY" signal (YKBNK, EKGYO, TAVHL, EREGL, KRDMD, ASELS, TCELL) exceed the channel midpoint (40%-60%) and reach 70%-80% levels, ADX values are expected to rise above 25-30 and MACD to move into positive territory.

• Impact: The BIST 30 index could add an additional 0.5%-1.0% return on top of its current 2.03% gain; BIST 100 could also rise to the 1.5%-2.0% level with a similar increase.

• Support Levels: For YKBNK 34.00 TRY, for EKGYO 19.00 TRY, for TAVHL 260.00 TRY, for EREGL 37.00 TRY, for KRDMD 44.00 TRY, for ASELS 380.00 TRY, for TCELL 101.00 TRY. These levels are positioned below the lower channel boundary and the 60-day average prices.

5.2. Downside Scenario (Negative)

• Condition: " Stocks carrying a "BUY" signal hit the upper channel boundary (80%-90%) and simultaneously MACD deepens into negative territory, while ADX falls below 20. Especially in tickers with negative Pearson r (EREGL, TCELL) and high channel % (EREGL 83%, TCELL 79%), a price pullback of 5%-7% is likely.

• Impact: BIST 30 may lose its current gain of 2.03% and retreat to the 0.5%-1.0% level; BIST 100 may also undergo a similar correction, showing a decline of 0.5%-1.0%.

• Support Levels: For YKBNK 33.00 TRY, for EKGYO 18.50 TRY, for TAVHL 255.00 TRY, for EREGL 35.50 TRY, for KRDMD 42.00 TRY, for ASELS 370.00 TRY, for TCELL 98.00 TRY. These levels can be considered close to the lower channel boundary and past 60-day lows.

5.3. Invalidation Conditions

• Signal Collapse: If the oscillator recommendation for stocks carrying a "BUY" signal turns to "NEUTRAL" or "SELL" (as seen in tickers such as GARAN, THYAO), this leads to the invalidation of the upside scenario.

• Macro Deterioration: If inflation unexpectedly rises from the annual 31.51% level to 37%-34%, the policy rate increases to 38%, and USD/TRY exceeds the 50.00 level with a rise above 0.5%, risk appetite may shrink, eroding the performance of "BUY" tickers.

• Liquidity Squeeze: If the performance gap between BIST 100 and BIST 30 (2.03% vs 1.80%) exceeds 0.5% and large-cap tickers (e.g., KOC Holding, Sabanci Holding) receive a "SELL" signal, market participation may narrow and the rally may become unsustainable.

5.4. Strategic Recommendation

• Broadening Participation: " Volume increases and new investor inflows into tickers carrying a "BUY" signal may allow the index to move beyond a narrow-based rally and spread to a broader base.

• Stop-Loss and Take-Profit: Levels near the lower channel boundary (30%-40%) should be used as stop-loss, while levels near the upper channel boundary (70%-80%) should be used as take-profit targets.

• Portfolio Weight: Keeping the total weight of "BUY" signal tickers in the portfolio between 30%-35% can balance the risk of a narrow-based rally.

6. Recommended Stocks for the Day

* The "Base Scenario" in the table defines the expected price movement if current technical and oscillator conditions persist; the "Optimistic Scenario" defines the price reaching the upper channel bound if additional positive macro-technical triggers (e.g., ADX increase, MACD turning positive) occur; the "Invalidation Condition" defines adverse changes that could break the signal (oscillator signal change, MACD turning negative, ADX decline, etc.). The "Rationale" section summarizes the technical-oscillator alignment and channel-r-momentum relationship for each stock.

Result: BIST 30's intraday gain of 2.03% is driven by the performance of a limited number of codes carrying "BUY" signals (YKBNK, EKGYO, TAVHL, EREGL, KRDMD, ASELS, TCELL). Macro data is supported by a slight decline in consumer inflation and easing credit conditions, while producer inflation remaining high and currency fluctuations remain risk factors. Investors are advised to maintain stop-loss levels against the possibility of short-term pullbacks in stocks approaching the upper bound of technical channels (especially EREGL, TCELL), while also monitoring volume and participation increases in codes with "BUY" signals to seize the opportunity to broaden the index's narrow-based rally.