1. Market Summary and Overview
October 14, 2026, Wednesday, 12:30 (Turkey time) – BIST 30 (XU030) last close 15.107.74 points, previous close 15.191.57 points; daily change -0.55%. BIST 100 (XU100) last close 12.167.51 points, previous close 12.250.68 points; trading with a daily loss of -0.68%. USD/TRY 49.39 TRY (previous 49.34 TRY) and recorded a daily increase of +0.10%. XU030 performed -0.65% in dollar terms, indicating that the exchange rate movement somewhat eroded local returns.
The market is trading with low momentum in the morning session; energy and petrochemical stocks are supported by technical signals predominantly pointing to BUY and by the rise in Brent prices following attack news, while a mixed picture emerges in banking and retail sectors. The slight rise in the dollar and the slight decline in foreign exchange reserves (60.33 billion $ → 61,563 billion $) limit risk appetite, while the slight decline in US Treasury yields (US 30-year bond 5,563% → 5,598%) somewhat softens global liquidity conditions.
From a macro perspective, Turkey's annual inflation is at 29.73%; although it came in below expectations with a monthly increase of 1.84%, the high inflation environment continues to exert interest rate pressure (CBRT policy rate 37.0%). The 10.1% annual increase in exports and the 1.4% monthly rise in retail sales indicate that domestic demand is showing a limited recovery signal. Eurozone data, on the other hand, offers a more stable environment compared to Turkey with low inflation and a slight growth trend. In this framework, the slight decline in BIST 30 can be explained by the impact of high inflation and exchange rate pressure as well as fluctuations in energy prices.
2. Sector-Based Evaluation
The technical scan heat map summarizes the distribution of short-term (short), medium-term (medium), and long-term (long) signals by sector.Energy & Petrochemicals In the sector, stocks such as TUPRS (short=HOLD, medium=BUY, long=BUY) and PETKM (short=HOLD, medium=HOLD, long=BUY) carry BUY signals in the medium and long term; this indicates that the price dynamics driving the sector are in an upward trend.Banking In the sector, stocks such as VAKBN (short=HOLD, medium=BUY, long=BUY) and YKBNK (short=BUY, medium=HOLD, long=HOLD) receive BUY signals in the medium term, while other banks such as ISCTR and GARAN carry SELL signals in the long term; this confusion points to a short-term recovery expectation in banking while long-term risk perception remains high.
Metal & Mining In the sector, KRDMD and TRMET receive BUY signals in the medium and long term, while EREGL and SIŞE show SELL signals in the long term; this indicates that fluctuations in metal prices lead to sectoral differentiation.Holding company andHoldings (Koç Holding) Koç Holding (KCHOL) carries a BUY signal in the long term, but HOLD signals in the short and medium term reveal that market participants are taking a cautious approach toward these large groups.Real Estate ( (EKGYO) and Retail ( BIMAS) sectors are generally faced with NEUTRAL or SELL signals; in particular, BIMAS's technical signals being NEUTRAL reflects uncertainty in retail consumption.
In summary,sectors with concentrated strong BUY signals energy-petrochemicals, some metal companies, and large holdings such as Koç Holding;sectors dominated by weak signals Long-term SELL in banking, real estate, retail, and some automotive companies. This distribution may shape sector rotation according to investors' risk preferences.
3. Technical Visual Analysis
Technical screening provides the percentage position within the channel and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) for each stock. Channel values ranging from 22% to 74% indicate where prices are positioned within the regression channel.TUPRS % 22 within the channel and r = 0.78; high positive correlation implies that the price is tracking close to the trend line and the upward trend is sustainable.VAKBN % 32 channel and r = 0.76; similarly, a strong positive relationship exists.KRDMD % 33 channel, r = 0.49; moderate correlation indicates that the price is in a more volatile alignment with the trend.
Negative correlation values signal that a downtrend is dominant.SIŞE % 42 channel, r = -0.59; the price is in the lower part of the regression channel, and negative correlation suggests the decline may continue.TCELL % 61 channel, r = -0.66; likewise, a strong negative correlation highlights that the price is squeezed in the upper part of the channel, increasing the risk of a potential reversal.
Wave Trend (WT) signals are marked as "BUY" for TUPRS, VAKBN, KRDMD, TRMET, and YKBNK; this supports that the wave formation is in an upward direction.EREGL andTRMET stocks such as these show negative r values (-0.70 and 0.08) despite WT=BUY; this indicates that the short-term wave movement may contradict the long-term trend, signaling a potential divergence risk.
Diverging stocks, WT=BUY but r < 0 orand those within channel >50% include, for example, TCELL, SIŞE, EREGL andTRMET meet this criterion. Although these stocks are in an upward wave, the price approaching the upper boundary of the regression channel and negative correlation increase the likelihood of a short-term pullback.
4. Oscillator and Momentum Readings
Oscillator data includes RSI, MACD, StochK, CCI20, and ADX values per stock.RSI values are hovering around 50; this indicates neutral momentum for most stocks. However, StochK values are approaching the overbought zone (80-85) in some stocks: VAKBN (82.59%), GARAN (73.6%), and YKBNK (73.44%). This indicates intense short-term buying pressure, but also suggests that overbought risk is present.
MACD For most stocks, values are negative or very low positive; for example, TUPRS –0.51, GARAN –0.17, YKBNK +0.07. Negative MACD indicates weakening momentum and the possibility of price deviating from the trend direction. CCI20 Values range widely from positive to negative; extremes such as TUPRS –19.22 (negative) and VAKBN +75.34 (positive) reveal that trend strength varies. ADX is in the 20–30 range, giving a medium-strength trend signal for most stocks; TUPRS 28.47 and GARAN 22.33 show that the trend is still evident but the direction is not yet confirmed.
In terms of overbought/oversold zones, STRONG BUY YKBNK and PETKM, which received the signal, RSI 51.93 and 51.57, StochK 73.44 and 47.61; these levels, while approaching the overbought limit, also being Yapı Kredi (YKBNK) and Petkim (PETKM), increase the likelihood of a short-term correction.STRONG SELL Stocks such as THYAO, ASELS, and AKBNK that received the signal have RSI in the 42-45 range, StochK at 16-23, and strongly negative MACD; this combination confirms that selling pressure is dominant and momentum is pointing downward.
5. Risk Map and Scenarios
Upside Scenario: In the energy-petrochemical and metal sectors, WT=BUY, with the channel within 22%-44% and positive r values (TUPRS r = 0.78; VAKBN r = 0.76), may support a 5%-8% rise in these stocks. In particular, the rise in Brent prices after the attack and the slight increase in the exchange rate could improve energy companies' profit margins.
Downside Scenario: The combination of long-term SELL signals in the banking and telecommunications sectors, negative r values (TCELL r = –0.66; SIŞE r = –0.59) and high ADX (TCELL 24.37) points to a correction risk of 4%-6%. Additionally, Turkey's high inflation (29.73%) and the policy rate remaining at 37% may increase credit costs and pressure banking profits.
Divergence Strategies:
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Channel %>50 For stocks traded within (TCELL 61%, SIŞE 42%, EREGL 74%), the price approaching the upper channel boundary creates a "peak" signal; in this case, the probability of a price pullback increases.
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Negative Pearson r (< 0) stocks indicate a weakening trend, so it is recommended to keep short-term stop-loss levels tighter.
Levels to Watch:
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TUPRS for 395 TL support and 420 TL resistance; a breakout would signal a trend reversal.
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VAKBN for 33 TL support, 36 TL resistance; especially movement above the 60-day average tests the sustainability of the trend.
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YKBNK for 35 TL support, 38 TL resistance; since StochK is in the overbought zone, a pullback to the 36 TL level is highly likely.
6. Recommended Stocks for the Day
| Stock | Signal | Base Scenario | Optimistic Scenario | Invalidation Condition | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YKBNK (Yapı Kredi) | STRONG BUY | Stock, WT=AL, RSI ≈ 52, StochK ≈ 73; price is within channel 39% and r = 0.55. The medium-term uptrend continues. | If StochK > 80 and MACD remains positive, there is potential for an additional 5%-7% gain. | If StochK < 70 and MACD is negative, short-term correction risk. | |
| PETKM (Petkim) | STRONG BUY | WT=BUY, RSI ≈ 52, within 44% of the channel, r = 0.25; technical signals are in the BUY direction. | If Brent price increases by 3% and USD/TRY remains stable, 4%-6% additional return. | If MACD is negative and StochK < 50, momentum weakens and the price may decline. | |
| VAKBN (Vakifbank) | BUY | WT=BUY, RSI ≈ 53, StochK ≈ 83, within 32% of the channel, r = 0.76; strong buying pressure in the medium term. | If StochK > 85 and the price breaks the 36 TL resistance, a 6%-8% rise. | If StochK < 70 and MACD turns negative, the trend weakens. | |
| GARAN (Garanti BBVA) | BUY | WT=BUY, RSI ≈ 52, StochK ≈ 74, within 47% of the channel, r = 0.26; technical and oscillator signals are aligned. | If ADX > 25 and the price surpasses the 135 TL resistance, an additional 5%-7% gain. | If ADX < 20 and MACD deepens negative, selling pressure increases. | |
| TUPRS (Tüpraş) (stock code) | BUY | WT=BUY, RSI ≈ 52, within 22% of the channel, r = 0.78; high positive correlation and strong trend. | If Brent price rises by 2%-3% and USD/TRY remains stable, a 7%-9% rise. | If Brent price falls and MACD negative deepens, the trend may break. | |
| ISCTR (İş Bankası) | BUY | WT=BUY, RSI ≈ 51, StochK ≈ 55, within channel 41%, r = 0.39; medium-term bullish signal. | If StochK > 60 and MACD remains positive, 4%-6% additional return. | If StochK < 45 and MACD turns negative, price may decline. | |
| KRDMD (Kardemir) | BUY | WT=AL, RSI ≈ 50, within 33% of channel, r = 0.49; technical signals point to BUY. | If metal prices rise by 3% and ADX > 20, a 5%-7% increase. | If metal prices fall and r < 0.3, the trend weakens. | |
| EREGL (Ereğli Demir Çelik) | BUY | WT=AL, RSI ≈ 50, within 74% of channel, r = -0.70; within high channel but negative correlation. | If ADX > 20 and price breaks the 38 TRY resistance, a 4%-6% increase. | If r < -0.8 and MACD deepens negatively, price may move downward. | |
| TRMET (TR Anadolu Metal) — stock code | BUY | WT=AL, RSI ≈ 50, within 44% of channel, r = 0.08; technical signal BUY, correlation neutral. | If metal prices rise by 2% and ADX > 15, an additional 3%-5% gain. | If metal prices fall and StochK < 50, the trend weakens. | |
| KCHOL (Koç Holding) | BUY | WT=AL, RSI ≈ 49, within 22% of channel, r = 0.59; strong correlation and BUY signal. | If positive quarterly results within the holding and ADX > 25, a 5%-8% increase. | If quarterly results fall below expectations and MACD deepens negatively, the trend may break. |
The scenarios in the table are prepared based solely on current technical and oscillator data; unexpected changes in external news flow or macro data may invalidate the suggested scenarios.