Deep Analysis - October 30, 2026, Friday

1. Market Summary and Overview

As of Friday, October 30, 2026, at 12:34 (Turkey time), the BIST 30 index closed at 13.704.41 points, while the previous close was recorded at 13.960.89 points; the daily change ‑1.84 % was realized. BIST 100 traded at 10.978.09 points, recording a decline from the previous close of 11.165.44 points ‑1.68 % The USD/TRY exchange rate rose to 49.94 TL, showing an increase from the previous level of 49.83 TL +0.23 % The daily return of BIST 30 in dollar terms, on the other hand, is ‑2.06 % has been reported as.

The market trading during the day is moving in a negative atmosphere due to high inflation pressure and a slight rise in the exchange rate. The decline in indices follows a trend parallel to price drops, especially in externally dependent sectors such as energy-petrochemicals and automotive. The slight rise of the dollar against the Turkish lira points to a depreciation of the local currency, while also increasing the potential for exporting companies to benefit from the exchange rate advantage.

2. Sector-Based Evaluation

Energy & Petrochemicals

Technical scan signals TUPRS ( Tüpraş) and ASTOR ( Astor Enerji) are concentrated in the "SELL" direction, while ENKAI ( Enka İnşaat) has generated an "BUY" signal, but since oscillator data is in the "SELL" direction, a mixed picture emerges in the sector. Channel widths (13%-71%) and Pearson correlations (r = 0.09--0.95) show that price movements occur within high volatility.

Automotive

TOASO ( Tofaş) and FROTO ( Ford Otosan) receive a technical "SELL" signal, while FROTO WT=BUY (Wave Trend) has been found for it. However, since oscillators are predominantly "SELL", short-term selling pressure dominates in the sector.

Banking and Finance

In the banking sector, VAKBN, ISCTR, YKBNK, GARAN, AKBNK stocks such as these technically carry a "STRONG SELL" signal; the oscillators also confirm "STRONG SELL." Combined with the slowdown in credit growth and the policy rate remaining steady at 36.0%, this indicates reduced risk appetite.

Retail & Food

MGROS, BIMAS, AEFES Retail and food companies such as these receive a technical "SELL" signal, while the oscillators also confirm "STRONG SELL." Retail sales rising 10.1% year-on-year, but consumer confidence falling to 84.8%, points to fragile spending trends.

Other Sectors

Telecom (TTKOM, TCELL), aviation (THYAO, PGSUS, TAVHL) and metal-mining (TRMET, KRDMD, EREGL) stocks are also generally facing "SELL" signals. In particular, TRMET andKRDMD shows a weak outlook with a combination of technical "SELL" and "HOLD" signals.

3. Technical Visual Analysis

EMA Arrangements and Wave Trend

Within BIST 30, the EMA-20, EMA-50 and EMA-200 levels, with the index generally staying below EMA-200, indicate that the long-term downtrend is still valid. ENKAI, ASELS, ASTOR, FROTO In stocks such as these, the Wave Trend (WT) has found an "BUY" signal; this points to the possibility of short-term prices rising above the lower EMAs.

Regression Channel and Pearson Correlation

Channels range between 13% and 71%; high channel width emphasizes that prices are fluctuating in a wide range and the trend is uncertain. Pearson r values are negative (-0.09 to -0.95) for most stocks, showing negative correlation; this indicates that price movements are moving in the opposite direction to the index. In particular, stocks such as ASTOR ( r = -0.95) and SASA ( r = -0.78) show a strong counter-movement against the index's overall decline.

Diverging Stocks

ENKAI: WT=BUY, channel 42%, r = -0.66. There is a slight recovery signal above EMA-20.
ASELS: WT=BUY, channel 58%, r = -0.74. Technically a strong buy signal, but the oscillator "SELL" warning creates a risk factor.
ASTOR: WT=BUY, channel 71%, r = -0.95. The highest channel width increases volatility; breakout levels are critical.
FROTO: WT=BUY, channel 28%, r = -0.81. Although it remains below EMA-50, there is short-term upside potential.

4. Oscillator and Momentum Readings

RSI values for most stocks are in the 30-50 range; low levels such as SASA (% 23.77) and ASELS (% 47.94) are close to the oversold zone, but values like TUPRS (% 37.67) are at mid-level.

MACD is concentrated in negative values; ASTOR (‑ 21.93) and GUBRF (‑ Deep negatives like 42.43 indicate weak momentum.

Stochastic K

Stochastic K values range between 5-75; ASELS (% 75.07) is in the overbought zone, SASA (% 5.4) is in the oversold zone.

CCI20 values are largely negative; TAVHL (‑ 190.62) and SASA (‑ 134.56) such values confirm that the trend is strongly downward.

ADX values range between 17-55; GUBRF ( 55.53) and TRALT ( 45.35) high ADX shows a strong trend, while TAVHL ( 17.13) low ADX signals a weak trend.

Overall, oscillators give weighted signals in the "SELL" direction; only stocks carrying a "BUY" signal within the technical scan are waiting for an additional catalyst to overcome the negative momentum of the oscillators.

5. Risk Map and Scenarios

Upside Scenario

Exchange Rate and Inflation Effect: The 29.73% rise in USD/TRY increases the costs of companies with foreign debt while potentially boosting the competitiveness of exporters. Inflation remaining at an annual 29.73% level puts pressure on real consumption; however, the decline in energy prices (Brent -3.15%) may provide short-term support to some energy-petrochemical companies.
Technical Support Levels: Critical supports such as 95 TL for ENKAI, 330 TL for ASELS, 150 TL for ASTOR, and 60 TL for FROTO increase the likelihood of prices recovering from these levels if no breakdown occurs.

Downside Scenario

Credit and Liquidity Risk: Turkey's budget deficit of -532.2 billion TRY and the policy rate remaining steady at 36.0% may increase pressure on the financial sector. "STRONG SELL" signals in banking stocks reflect expectations that the slowdown in credit growth will continue.
Channel Breakout: Stocks like ASTOR with a channel width of 71%, combined with a negative Pearson correlation (r = -0.95) and negative MACD (-21.93), may experience a rapid decline if the lower channel level is broken.

Split Strategies

Short-Term Positions: Focusing on EMA-20/EMA-50 crossovers, short-term buying opportunities can be evaluated in ENKAI, ASELS, ASTOR, and FROTO stocks carrying a technical "BUY" signal.
Medium-Term Protection: Since high ADX and negative CCI20 values indicate a strong trend, stop-loss levels should be positioned at the lower channel boundaries.

Levels to watch

If the USD/TRY 50.00 TRY level is broken, currency pressure increases and the profitability of companies with foreign debt decreases.
BIST 30 Dollar-Based Performance -2.06% falling below this level may reduce foreign investors' risk appetite and trigger outflows.

6. Recommended Stocks for the Day

Stock	Signal	Base Scenario	Optimistic Scenario	Invalidation Condition
ENKAI	BUY	The price at the current 100.3 TRY level finds support within the 42% channel, with a short-term recovery signal above EMA-20.	The price breaks the 105 TRY resistance, confirming the rise above EMA-50, and a short-term volume increase is observed.	If the price falls below 95 TRY, the WT=BUY signal weakens and negative MACD (-2.17) creates pressure.
ASELS	BUY	The current price at 347.0 TRY, with WT=BUY and within the 58% channel, gives a recovery signal near EMA-20.	Breaking the 360 TRY resistance and Stochastic K (75.07%) pulling back from the overbought zone indicate strengthening momentum.	If the price falls below 330 TRY, MACD (-8.97) and CCI20 (-100.9) reinforce the negative pressure.
ASTOR	BUY	The price at 166.2 TRY, within the 71% channel and with a WT=BUY signal, supports short-term upside potential.	Breaking the 180 TRY resistance, along with high ADX (33.68), indicates a strengthening trend.	If the price falls below 150 TRY, the risk of trend collapse increases with Pearson r (-0.95) and negative MACD (-21.93).
FROTO	BUY	The price at 67.3 TRY, with WT=BUY and within the 28% channel, gives a slight upward signal above EMA-20.	Breaking the 72 TRY resistance, along with Stochastic K (50.15%) rising, increases buying pressure.	If price falls below 60 TL, the trend weakens with negative MACD (‑2.32) and low RSI (38.39).

The scenarios in the table have been created solely based on technical screening (WT=AL) and oscillator data (RSI, MACD, Stochastic, CCI20, ADX); fundamental or external factors may invalidate these scenarios.