BIST 30 WEEKLY INVESTMENT REPORT
1. Executive Summary
The market has been under selling pressure throughout the past week due to geopolitical risks ( (Iranian tensions) and global energy shock ( (natural gas 71 euros). Despite the bargain hunting on Friday, we assess that this movement is not a signal of a permanent trend reversal. The "" Up Step Rule" implemented on Borsa Istanbul may slow down downward movements but is not sufficient alone for a change in direction.
Performance of Our Recommendations from the Previous Week:
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KCHOL and BIMAS weighted portfolio compared to the index is resistant has remained. KCHOL on a weekly basis %+0.51 while outperforming positively, BIMAS %+0.06 has remained flat.
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at THYAO %-3.74' The decline confirmed our forecast of selling pressure if the 300 TL resistance is not broken.
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Our high cash ratio strategy has protected the portfolio from sharp declines.
View: SELECTIVE AND CAUTIOUS
2. News and Macro Assessment
2.1 Geopolitical Risks (Main Agenda)
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Tensions originating from Iran continue. "Economic war" statements from Iran and news of two critical contacts are increasing uncertainty in the markets.
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This situation creates upward pressure on energy prices.
2.2 Energy Markets
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Natural gas prices in Europe exceeded 71 euros. This level will increase production costs and create margin pressure on energy-intensive sectors (chemicals, iron-steel, cement).
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El Nino effect: Electricity demand and LNG competition may increase. This situation could deepen the cost/price divergence in the energy sector.
2.3 Domestic Agenda
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Additional 1.1 billion dollars of resources to Halkbank can be considered a limited positive development for the banking sector.
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Automotive exports continues its strong performance for 8 months. Turkey's exports to Germany rose to $13.6 billion.
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Exemption from BSMV in Rediscount Credits expanded. This could reduce financing costs for exporting firms.
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Withholding tax rate in money market funds was raised to 10%. This regulation may affect competition between deposit and money market funds.
2.4 Global Markets
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New York stock market closed with a decline. Global markets are focused on inflation data and the ECB's interest rate decision are in focus.
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IMF President Georgieva: " Global economy is resisting energy shock" statement, keeps recession concerns alive.
3rd Technical Evaluation (Stock-based)
| Stock | Price (TRY) | 5-Day Change | Technical Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| THYAO | 296.00 | %-3.74 | ⚠️ Weak: 300 TL resistance was not overcome. Closing below 290 TL could increase selling pressure. |
| GARAN | 131.40 | %-1.79 | ⚠️ Neutral-Weak: 130 TL support level is critical. Below this level, 125 TL could be a target. |
| AKBNK | 71.85 | %-1.84 | ⚠️ Neutral: 70 TL main support. News of funds coming to the banking sector has limited positive impact. |
| EREGL | 37.20 | %-5.01 | 🔴 Weak: Underperforming the index. Sustained movement below 37 TL could accelerate the decline. |
| KCHOL | 215.10 | %+0.51 | ✅ Positive: Safe haven and anchor position. Remains in a buying zone as long as it stays above 210 TL. |
| BIMAS | 415.75 | %+0.06 | ✅ Positive: Outperforming the index. Target of 430 TL is maintained above 415 TL. |
| TUPRS | 388.50 | %-1.89 | ⚠️ Neutral-Weak: Rising energy costs could pressure margins. |
| ASELS | 388.25 | %-3.90 | 🔴 Weak: Under selling pressure despite strong outlook in defense industry. |
| SAHOL | 92.60 | %-1.12 | ⚠️ Neutral: Holding discount is widening. 90 TL main support. |
Key Technical Levels:
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THYAO: 300 TL resistance / 290 TL stop-loss
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BIMAS: 415 TL support / 430 TL target
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KCHOL: 210 TL support / 225 TL target
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SISE: Below 39 TL could accelerate the decline
4. Company/financial Evaluation
4.1 Liquidity and Current Assets Analysis
| Company | Current Assets (mln TL) | Evaluation |
|---|---|---|
| KCHOL | 3,615.15 | Very strong liquidity. Maintains its safe haven position with its holding structure and diversified portfolio. |
| THYAO | 512.19 | Strong cash flow. However, geopolitical risks may negatively affect the aviation sector. |
| EREGL | 265.47 | Sufficient liquidity. However, energy costs and demand concerns from China are pressuring margins. |
| SISE | 151.30 | Low liquidity. Sustained trading below 39 TL can be read as a financial stress signal. |
4.2 Sector Evaluation
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Banking: Resources provided to Halkbank have limited positive impact on the sector. However, uncertainty in CBRT interest rate policy is pressuring margins.
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Automotive: Exports are strong. The BSMV exemption in rediscount credits can support exporters.
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Energy: The increase in natural gas prices is pushing production costs up. Refiners like TUPRS may face margin pressure.
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Retail: BIMAS appears resilient in an inflationary environment thanks to its pricing power.
5. Risk Management and Strategy
5.1 Main Risks
- Geopolitical risks: Escalating tensions originating from Iran could push energy prices even higher.
- Global recession concerns: The ECB interest rate decision and US inflation data will determine risk appetite.
- Energy costs: Persistent natural gas prices above 71 euros could negatively impact industrial production.
- Exchange rate risk: Currency volatility can increase costs for importing companies.
5.2 Strategic Approach
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A net trend reversal should be expected. Panic selling should be avoided, but signals should be awaited for new long positions.
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" Up Step Rule" can slow down downward movements; however, this situation can create artificial support.
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Leverage should be avoided. Position sizes should be reduced during periods of high volatility.
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Focus on strong fundamentals: Stocks that outperform the index, such as KCHOL and BIMAS, should be preferred.
6. Recommended Portfolio
6.1 Weekly Portfolio Recommendation (September 7-11, 2026)
| Asset | Ratio (%) | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Cash/Reverse Repo | 35% | Protection against high volatility and geopolitical risks |
| KCHOL | 15% | Safe haven, strong liquidity, outperformance |
| BIMAS | 15% | Outperforming the index, target price of 430 TL maintained |
| AKBNK | 10% | Source support coming to the banking sector, 70 TL support |
| THYAO | 10% | Limited position with 290 TL stop-loss |
| TUPRS | 10% | Short-term benefit potential from rising energy prices |
| ASELS | 5% | Defense industry looks strong, limited position |
6.2 Month Portfolio Recommendation (September 2026)
| Asset | Ratio (%) | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Cash/Reverse Repo | 30% | Ready cash for buying opportunity if geopolitical risks continue |
| KCHOL | 20% | Long-term anchor position, holding discount contraction potential |
| BIMAS | 15% | Pricing power in inflation environment, retail resistance |
| AKBNK | 10% | Valuation advantage in banking sector |
| THYAO | 10% | Strong recovery potential if geopolitical risks decrease |
| SAHOL | 10% | Holding discount expansion, medium-term value opportunity |
| ASELS | 5% | Defense industry export potential |
6.3 Portfolio Strategy Summary
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High cash ratio protected. If geopolitical risks decrease and trend reversal signal is received, cash ratio will be gradually reduced.
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KCHOL and BIMAS protected as hedge positions.
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THYAO being monitored with a limited position; weight can be increased if it stays above 300 TL.
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Leverage should not be used, stop-loss levels must be strictly adhered to.
IMPORTANT NOTE: This report is not within the scope of investment advisory. Investors should make decisions according to their own risk tolerance and investment objectives. Market conditions can change rapidly; current developments should be followed.
Source: BloombergHT (website), CNN Türk (channel), Ekonomim (website), Habertürk (channel) |Data Date: September 7, 2026