Daily Market Report

1. Executive Summary and Market Overview

"Current market dynamics, despite the slight easing of pressure created by geopolitical uncertainties and energy shocks that came to the forefront in recent weeks, continue to be a determining factor. The BIST 30 index has formed a strong resistance zone around the 17.247 band, along with the 'upward step rule' reaction of recent days. As emphasized in previous analyses (especially in reports dated September 7-8), if this area is surpassed, a clear trend reversal signal could be obtained for the index; however, it does not yet appear that these levels are supported by a permanent resistance breakthrough. The market is in a cautious 'breathing' phase, focusing on global recession concerns and US inflation data."

The "Cash 35%" strategy highlighted in previous portfolio recommendations (September 9) has gained strategic justification against today's volatility and volatility. Particularly fluctuations in the energy and defense sectors are forcing to limit risk appetite. Although the general direction of the index does not yet include a clear upward trend, inflation-resistant retail (BIMAS, KCHOL) and basic metal sectors (EREGL, TUPRS) are outperforming positively, continuing to support the index. From a fund management perspective, under current conditions, "selective buying" and "hedging" (holding cash) principles are seen as the safest moves to protect the portfolio's value.

2. News and Macroeconomic Assessment

The macroeconomic agenda is focused on critical events that directly affect global markets and thus the BIST 30. The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) September interest rate decision is positioned as the biggest risk appetite determinant for investors. The 28.4% inflation expectation and "economic war" rhetoric emphasized in previous reports are keeping market psychology in a sideways trend and limiting sudden upward steps.

One of the local developments, the $1.1 billion source provided to Halkbank, has provided short-term positive support to the banking sector, but the long-term profitability effect of these resources is debatable. The escalation of geopolitical tensions originating from Iran and natural gas prices remaining above 71 euros could pressure industrial production and the profitability of energy-intensive companies (EREGL, TUPRS, TOASO). On the other hand, while the EU export approaching the $72 billion level and the increase in Iraq's oil exports paint a positive picture for the foreign trade balance, global recession pressure is balancing this improvement. Additionally, global technology news such as executive departures at OpenAI negatively affect risk appetite in the short term, causing capital to flow to safe havens (gold, cash, government bonds).

3rd Technical Evaluation (Stock-based)

According to technical analysis data, stocks giving a "STRONG BUY" signal in BIST 30 are the best performing ones within the index. According to TradingView oscillator results, stocks like BIMAS, KCHOL, TUPRS and PETKM have RSI values in the mid-60s, while MACD and Stochastic K values are also in the buying zone. These stocks show positive divergence in both short and medium-term trends, strengthening their safe haven position.

On the other hand, stocks like ASTOR giving a "STRONG SELL" signal and TAVHL, TCELL, THYAO and MGROS giving a "SELL" signal are technically showing weak divergence. Particularly in ASTOR, the RSI value is at 41, while the Stochastic K value is around 10% and moving below the lower band of the channel. In telecom and aviation stocks like TAVHL and TCELL, although RSI values are around 50, the MACD curve has remained negative and long-term trends look weak. These stocks are considered risky positions under current market conditions.

SIGNAL TABLE (Technical Scan Results):

4. Company and Financial Assessment

Company-based financial data reveals the fundamental factors supporting stock performance. KCHOL (3615.15 Billion TL), one of the largest companies in terms of current assets, is the heaviest weighted stock in the index, yet it is receiving a strong technical buy signal. KCHOL trading at a strong channel upper band (Channel 77%) at the 225.5 TL level is a positive sign for long-term investors.

BIMAS (152.41 Billion TL), as the leader in the inflation-resistant retail sector, holds a strong pricing power position. Its movement at the 434.75 TL level carries the potential to surpass the previous target range of 430-440 TL. PETKM (41.74 Billion TL) in the energy and petrochemical sector shows the highest performance with a 23% 60-day return. However, its price movement at the 24.68 TL level is technically near an overbought zone, carrying a short-term correction risk.

TUPRS (439.48 Billion TL) and EREGL (265.47 Billion TL) attract attention with their strong performances in the metal and petrochemical sectors. TUPRS's 84.5% 60-day return while moving at the channel's 32% band indicates the beginning of a strong trend. EREGL, despite energy cost pressures, has managed to maintain its support level with a 5.91% daily increase. In the banking sector, ISCTR (180.56 Billion TL) has moved to the channel's 107% band at the 13.93 TL level, becoming one of the strongest performing banks in the sector.

5. Risk Management and Strategy

Market risks are at high levels, particularly due to geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. Rising tensions with Iran and natural gas prices staying above 71 euros could pressure industrial production and profit margins of energy-intensive companies. Global recession concerns and US inflation data negatively affect risk appetite, limiting the index's upward movements.

Stop-loss levels are of critical importance for risk management. For stocks giving "SELL" signals such as THYAO, TAVHL, and MGROS, attention must be paid to stop-loss levels. The 274.50 TL level for TAVHL, 300.25 TL for THYAO, and 547.50 TL for MGROS should be used to limit losses in case of a decline. For stocks giving "STRONG BUY" signals like KCHOL and BIMAS, stop-loss levels have been set at 210 TL and 415 TL respectively. Maintaining a high cash ratio in the portfolio will serve as a protective shield against market fluctuations.

6. Recommended Model Portfolio

At the end of the report, below is the concrete model portfolio table created based on the above signals and analyses. The table contains a maximum of 8 stock positions + one "CASH" line. Weights are determined to complete 100%.