1. Market Summary and Overview
Today, the BIST 30 index started the day with a significant rally signal, showing a clear upward trend despite uncertainties in global markets. The momentum created by energy and petrochemical stocks (PETKM, SISE) pushed the index above the 17.103 level. As the index gains momentum during its recovery process in recent days, the overall market sentiment shows a "risk-on" bias. Investors, facing uncertainties from Fed interest rate decisions and geopolitical tensions (Iran-Israel), continue to prefer the Holding and Retail sectors as safe havens due to their strong balance sheets and cash positions. The general atmosphere of the day suggests that the "consolidation" phase of recent days has been overcome, and the next stage will test the 17.103 resistance level.
2. Sector-Based Evaluation
Based on the data, a significant divergence is observed among sectors. Looking at the heatmap, Petrochemical and Energy sectors show the strongest performance. Strong buy signals from PETKM and SISE indicate that these sectors are benefiting from rising global demand and energy prices, while technically approaching overbought zones. In the Retail sector, BIMAS is leading; its inflation-resistant structure and strong market share reinforce investor confidence.
The Banking sector, however, presents a "split" picture. VAKBN and AKBNK stand out with strong buy signals, while stocks like GARAN and YKBNK are in a more neutral or wait-and-see position. In the Metal & Mining sector, EREGL and KRDMD attract attention with strong technical signals. In contrast, Aviation & Transportation (TAVHL, THYAO) and Telecommunication (TCELL, TTKOM) sectors are generating weak technical sell signals. Due to THY data in news bulletins and the divergence in technology stocks (OpenAI management changes), we believe risk-taking should be avoided.
3. Technical Visual Analysis
In technical analysis, the combined interpretation of Wave Trend (WT) and Regression Channel (r) values provides a critical clue for the future performance of stocks. Stocks with a WT signal of "BUY" are currently positioned at or above the 70% region of the regression channel. This situation indicates that the stocks have a strong trend and that momentum is continuing.
For example, KCHOL andGUBRF stocks like KCHOL, PETKM, and THYAO have WT=BUY and channel percentages in the 80-90 range. This shows that these stocks are in a strong buying trend and have entered the technically "strong buy" zone. Stocks with high Pearson correlation (r) (for example, r=0.97 for TUPRS) prove that price movements are in strong harmony with the technical trend.
Diverging stocks, on the other hand, have started to break the WT signal by falling below the regression channel. ASTOR andMGROS stocks like AKBNK, HALKB, and ISCTR have WT=SELL and channel percentages in the 14-56 range. These stocks have technically moved to the "strong sell" zone and face the risk of staying below the regression channel. TUPRS shows an interesting divergence; although WT=SELL, the channel percentage is very low at 21% and with r=0.97, price movements are moving downward with high correlation. This stock should wait to move up from below the channel to enter the technically "BUY" zone.
4. Oscillator and Momentum Readings
Oscillators like RSI and MACD are used to identify overbought/oversold regions of the markets. PETKM andSISE stocks like PETKM and SISE have RSI values above 70 (74.1 for PETKM, 71.64 for SISE), indicating that these stocks have entered the technically overbought zone. Although momentum is high in these stocks, there is a risk of a short-term "pullback".
On the other hand, TCELL andTAVHL stocks like TCELL and TAVHL have RSI values below 50 (49.56 for TCELL, 51.66 for TAVHL), indicating that these stocks are technically weak with downward momentum.ASTOR andMGROS In stocks like ASTOR and MGROS, RSI values are at very low levels (42.22 for ASTOR, 39.23 for MGROS), indicating that these stocks have entered the oversold zone technically. MACD signals for these stocks are also downward (-2.85 for ASTOR, -22.75 for MGROS) and momentum is weak.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index) values are used to determine whether stock price movements are outside the normal range.PETKM andSISE In stocks like PETKM and SISE, CCI values are above 300 (361.59 for PETKM, 311.04 for SISE), indicating that these stocks are in the overbought zone.TCELL andTAVHL In stocks like TCELL and TAVHL, CCI values are at negative levels (-28.12 for TCELL, -26.13 for TAVHL), indicating that these stocks are in the oversold zone.
5. Risk Map and Scenarios
When we look at the market risk map, critical levels that need attention for downside scenarios become clear.KCHOL for 210 TL,BIMAS for 415 TL,PETKM for 23 TL should be determined as stop-loss levels. These levels should be used to limit losses if the stocks fall below their technical trend.
In the upside scenario,PETKM andSISE The progress of stocks like these above their 60-day moving averages could carry the index to the 17.103 level. However, uncertainties in global markets and geopolitical risks could pose a significant obstacle even in the upside scenario. Therefore, investors should adopt a selective approach by maintaining high cash ratios instead of moving towards risky assets.
6. Recommended Stocks for the Day
The table below contains stocks giving "STRONG BUY" signals based on technical and oscillator data, along with their reasons.
| Stock | Signal | Entry Area | Target | Stop | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCHOL | STRONG BUY | 224.8 | 230 | 210 | WT=BUY, channel 89%, r=0.82, RSI 67.74, MACD 4.7 |
| BIMAS | STRONG BUY | 420.5 | 430 | 415 | WT=BUY, channel 72%, r=0.75, RSI 62.51, MACD 7.61 |
| KRDMD | STRONG BUY | 45.98 | 48 | 44 | WT=BUY, channel 61%, r=0.73, RSI 57.86, MACD 0.81 |
| TRALT | STRONG BUY | 53.0 | 56 | 51 | WT=BUY, channel 65%, r=0.30, RSI 54.99, MACD 0.65 |
| PETKM | STRONG BUY | 24.26 | 26 | 23 | WT=BUY, channel 139%, r=0.21, RSI 74.1, MACD 0.53 |
| GUBRF | STRONG BUY | 504.0 | 520 | 490 | WT=BUY, channel 89%, r=0.01, RSI 63.62, MACD 13.88 |
| VAKBN | STRONG BUY | 36.64 | 38 | 35 | WT=BUY, channel 132%, r=-0.19, RSI 70.44, MACD 0.98 |
| AKBNK | STRONG BUY | 74.95 | 78 | 72 | WT=BUY, channel 93%, r=-0.46, RSI 67.07, MACD 1.22 |
| TUPRS | BUY | 394.5 | 400 | 390 | WT=SELL (warning), channel 21%, r=0.97, RSI 65.25, MACD 20.11 |
| ASELS | BUY | 390.0 | 395 | 385 | WT=BUY, channel 60%, r=0.18, RSI 53.27, MACD 4.37 |
| SAHOL | BUY | 96.5 | 100 | 93 | WT=BUY, channel 96%, r=-0.42, RSI 69.13, MACD 1.26 |
| DSTKF | BUY | 2460.0 | 2500 | 2400 | WT=BUY, channel 86%, r=-0.69, RSI 61.59, MACD 44.0 |
| SISE | STRONG BUY | 45.82 | 48 | 44 | WT=BUY, channel 181%, r=-0.83, RSI 71.64, MACD -0.07 |
| TOASO | STRONG BUY | 291.75 | 300 | 285 | WT=BUY, channel 117%, r=-0.83, RSI 63.14, MACD 0.15 |
| YKBNK | BUY | 37.62 | 39 | 36 | WT=BUY, channel 86%, r=-0.50, RSI 62.8, MACD 0.47 |
| GARAN | BUY | 136.0 | 140 | 132 | WT=BUY, channel 94%, r=-0.45, RSI 61.99, MACD 1.12 |
| EKGYO | BUY | 20.44 | 22 | 19 | WT=BUY, channel 90%, r=-0.50, RSI 58.53, MACD 0.24 |
| EREGL | BUY | 39.92 | 42 | 38 | WT=AL, channel 72%, r=-0.51, RSI 56.35, MACD -0.45 |
| FROTO | BUY | 82.8 | 88 | 80 | WT=AL, channel 124%, r=-0.81, RSI 62.54, MACD -0.35 |
| ENKAI | BUY | 89.65 | 95 | 85 | WT=AL, channel 106%, r=-0.71, RSI 57.76, MACD 0.35 |
| PGSUS | BUY | 155.5 | 160 | 150 | WT=AL, channel 129%, r=-0.94, RSI 55.09, MACD -1.82 |
| TTKOM | BUY | 54.5 | 58 | 52 | WT=AL, channel 101%, r=-0.87, RSI 54.09, MACD -0.8 |
| AEFES | BUY | 19.26 | 20.5 | 18.5 | WT=AL, channel 58%, r=-0.65, RSI 49.84, MACD -0.52 |
| TAVHL | BUY | 275.25 | 285 | 270 | WT=AL, channel 63%, r=-0.30, RSI 51.66, MACD -1.58 |
| THYAO | BUY | 305.0 | 315 | 300 | WT=AL, channel 79%, r=-0.84, RSI 50.61, MACD -3.84 |
| TCELL | BUY | 101.6 | 105 | 98 | WT=AL, channel 78%, r=-0.85, RSI 49.56, MACD -1.72 |
| MGROS | BUY | 539.0 | 560 | 520 | WT=AL, channel 56%, r=-0.92, RSI 39.23, MACD -22.75 |
| PGSUS | BUY | 155.5 | 160 | 150 | WT=AL, channel 129%, r=-0.94, RSI 55.09, MACD -1 |