Deep Analysis - 2026-10-01

1. Market Summary and Overview

October 1, 2026, Thursday, 09:08, BIST 30 (XU030) closing price 14.842.04, previous close 15.264.10, daily -2.77%

During the day, the index decline was almost identical at -2.77% in TL terms and -2.79% in dollar terms; this situation shows that currency impact is limited as USD/TRY changed by only +0.03% at the 49.02 level. Consequently, the selling pressure mainly stems from weakening local risk appetite and short-term position closing tendencies.

BIST 100 (XU100) closed the same session at 11.947.18; previous close 12.290.58, daily -2.79%. The proximity between the two indices indicates that the selling is broad-based and sectoral differences are limiting the movement.

In the technical scan, all 30 stocks showed negative direction, with 26 giving STRONG SELL signal; except BIMAS (RSI 50.31) which remained in NEUTRAL position, all other stocks were in alignment with SELL direction according to WT (WaveTrend) indicator. In this generalized selling environment, the index staying below the 15.000 psychological support level (14.842.04) strengthens the downward momentum.

The dollar-denominated performance (-2.79%) is almost identical to TL-based; this supports that instead of a currency shock, local liquidity withdrawal and selling of risk-off assets are dominant.

In summary, the main theme of the day: while the currency is stable, local risk aversion and technical sell signals are combining to keep the index in a downward corridor; the probability of a short-term rally is limited only to oversold areas (RSI below 35).

2. Sector-Based Evaluation

When creating the heat map, the "general" column and oscillator recommendation column in the technical scan were used as a basis, the relative strength of sectors can be evaluated as follows:

Banking: VAKBN, AKBNK, YKBNK, GARAN, ISCTR – all STRONG SELL; oscillators show RSI 38-45, MACD negative, ADX between 15-22. 5 stocks moving in the same direction in the sector; considering the weight of banking in the index, this density increases the mechanical impact of the selling.
Energy & Petrochemicals: TUPRS (SELL, RSI 42.09, ADX 28.07), PETKM (STRONG SELL, RSI 38.8, ADX 17.42), ENKAI (STRONG SELL, RSI 39.38, ADX 25.22), ASTOR (STRONG SELL, RSI 23.12, ADX 38.39), AEFES (STRONG SELL, RSI 36.39, ADX 26.9), SISE (STRONG SELL, RSI 35.44, ADX 21.45). Total 6 stocks; 5 STRONG SELL, 1 SELL. Within the sector, there is an outlier like ASTOR showing oversold (RSI 23) and strong trend (ADX >38); the rest are in weak-medium momentum.
Holding company: KCHOL (SELL, RSI 42.28, ADX 25.38), SAHOL (STRONG SELL, RSI 36.94, ADX 31.53). Two stocks give different signals; direction uncertainty within holding sector.
Retail: BIMAS (NEUTRAL, RSI 50.31, ADX 17.53), MGROS (STRONG SELL, RSI 36.83, ADX 32.22). Clear divergence between the two stocks; while BIMAS shows relative strength, MGROS gives strong sell signal.
Metal & Mining: KRDMD (SELL, RSI 46.4, ADX 15.58), EREGL (STRONG SELL, RSI 39.92, ADX 14.31). Two stocks in weak-medium momentum with different oscillator readings.
Chemicals & Fertilizers: GUBRF (STRONG SELL, RSI 38.71, ADX 29.65), SASA (STRONG SELL, RSI 26.06, ADX 24.8). Both STRONG SELL; SASA's RSI is close to oversold level at 26.
Defense: ASELS (STRONG SELL, RSI 33.92, ADX 28.08). Single stock, in weak-medium momentum.
Real Estate: EKGYO (STRONG SELL, RSI 41.52, ADX 19.33). Single stock, in neutral-weak momentum.
Transportation & Aviation: TAVHL (STRONG SELL, RSI 41.48, ADX 14.53), THYAO (STRONG SELL, RSI 41.52, ADX 27.3), PGSUS (STRONG SELL, RSI 31.5, ADX 18.29). All three stocks show STRONG SELL; THYAO's ADX 27.3 indicates a moderate-strong trend.
Telecom: TTKOM (STRONG SELL, RSI 42.94, ADX 13.24), TCELL (STRONG SELL, RSI 40.1, ADX 26.83). Both stocks have similar oscillator profiles and are in a neutral-weak momentum.
Automotive: TOASO (STRONG SELL, RSI 39.64, ADX 15.74), FROTO (STRONG SELL, RSI 37.73, ADX 25.72). Both stocks are in moderate-weak momentum.
Finance (Other): DSTKF (STRONG SELL, RSI 20.3, ADX 33.5). The single stock shows a combination of oversold and strong trend (ADX >33).

Looking at sector-based signal density, the groups with the most STRONG SELL signals are Banking ( 5 stocks) and Energy & Petrochemicals ( 5 stocks). Because the total weight of these two sectors in the index is high, they can be seen as the drivers of the overall decline. The relatively resilient ones are individual stocks such as BIMAS ( Retail) and TUPRS ( Energy); sector divergence is occurring within these sectors.

3. Technical Visual Analysis

When EMA sequences, Wave Trend (WT), and regression channel positions are evaluated together with Pearson correlation (r) values, the following conclusions can be drawn:

EMA structure: In the technical scan, the "short", "medium", and "long" columns show short, medium, and long-term EMA trends. For most stocks, a pattern of "short=SELL", "medium=SELL" or "WAIT", "long=BUY" or "WAIT" is emerging. This suggests that while short and medium-term trends are downward, some stocks (BIMAS, TUPRS, KCHOL, KRDMD) still show buying inclination on a long-term basis; however, the strength of this long-term signal is limited to NEUTRAL or SELL in the "overall" column.
Wave Trend (WT): WT=SELL for all stocks except BIMAS. This indicates that short-term momentum is generally under negative pressure and buy signals are very limited.
Regression channel and % channel value: “ The "channel%" column shows how close the price is to the upper or lower limit of the regression channel. Positive values indicate position above the channel, negative values indicate position below the channel. For example, TUPRS channel %-14 (below), BIMAS channel 22% (above), MGROS channel 50% (far above). This suggests that some stocks like BIMAS and MGROS are attempting to recover at the upper band of the channel, but since WT and oscillators are in SELL direction, this upward movement is likely to be a temporary reaction.
Pearson correlation (r): “ The "r" value shows the strength of the relationship between price and channel; values close to 1 indicate a strong directional relationship, values close to 0 indicate a weak relationship. High values like BIMAS r=0.86 and TUPRS r=0.92 show that these stocks follow a quite consistent trend within the channel; however, since the direction (SELL) is negative, this consistency suggests that the decline will continue. Low r values (EKGYO r=0.05, TRALT r=0.02) indicate a weak relationship between these stocks and the channel, and that movements are more random; this implies that short-term directional movements in this group may be limited.

In terms of diverging stocks, BIMAS ( channel 22%, r=0.86, overall=NEUTRAL) and TUPRS ( channel %-14, r=0.92, overall=SELL) shows the most significant divergence; one is neutral above the channel, the other gives a sell signal below the channel. This situation reflects relative strength differences within the sector and could increase the probability of a short-term rotation.

4. Oscillator and Momentum Readings

Oscillator data (RSI, MACD, StochK, CCI20, ADX) can be interpreted as follows:

RSI: Stocks below 35 are considered in the oversold zone. This group: DSTKF (20.3), ASTOR (23.1), SASA (26.1). These three stocks have a probability of a short-term technical reaction (short covering); however, since ADX values are high (DSTKF 33.5, ASTOR 38.4, SASA 24.8), the strength of the trend may limit these reactions.
RSI between 35-50: Most stocks are in this range (example: VAKBN 45.54, AKBNK 39.8, YKBNK 41.83, GARAN 38.14, ISCTR 38.63). This area shows neutral-weak momentum; a strong catalyst is needed for a change in direction.
RSI above 50: Only BIMAS (50.31) is in this range; this indicates its relative strong momentum, but since the overall signal is NEUTRAL, additional support is needed for this strength to change direction.
MACD: Negative values show downward momentum, positive values show upward momentum. Most stocks have negative MACD (AKBNK -0.30, YKBNK -0.10, GARAN -0.89, ISCTR -0.04). BIMAS MACD 4.6 is a positive outlier; this could indicate a short-term buying impulse, but since the oscillator recommendation is NEUTRAL, this impulse is not reliable.
StochK: Those below 20 show oversold, above 80 show overbuying. Low values like DSTKF StochK 0.0 (bottom extreme), ASTOR 12.19, SASA 3.39 confirm that these stocks are in the stochastic oversold zone.
CCI20: - Values below 100 show weak trend strength, values above +100 show strong trend. Most stocks are below -100 (TUPRS -184.16, GUBRF -106.94, ASELS -221.52). This supports that the downward trend is broad-based.
ADX: Values above 20 show the existence of a trend, above 25 show a strong trend. Strong trend indicators: ASTOR (38.4), MGROS (32.2), DSTKF (33.5), GUBRF (29.65), ASELS (28.08), TUPRS (28.07), THYAO (27.3), TCELL (26.83), AEFES (26.9), SISE (21.45), GARAN (20.93), YKBNK (19.4), AKBNK (19.87), ISCTR (21.65). These high ADX values show that the decline is not random but directional and a strong trend; this reduces the likelihood that short-term buy signals will be reliable.

Overall, the oscillators, DSTKF, ASTOR and SASA show a probability of short-term technical reaction in oversold zones, while high ADX values suggest these reactions will be limited and the main trend is likely to continue downward.

5. Risk Map and Scenarios

Upside Scenario

Condition: RSI rises above 50, MACD becomes positive, and StochK rises above 50 in relatively strong stocks like BIMAS and TUPRS; together, the channel % value remains positive and the r value stays above 0.80 for these stocks.
Result: This could create a short-term buying impulse and provide relative strength increase in retail and energy sectors; the index could attempt to balance between 15.000-15.200.
Invalidation Condition: If the above oscillator improvements do not occur and/or RSI of BIMAS/TUPRS falls below 45, MACD becomes negative again, or channel % value turns into negative area (BIMAS channel % falls below 0, TUPRS channel % falls below -20).

Downside Scenario

Condition: Banking stocks (ISCTR, YKBNK, AKBNK, GARAN, VAKBN) RSI falling below 30, MACD becoming more negative, and ADX remaining above 30; together, this would cause the channel % value to become more negative (e.g., ISCTR channel % rising from 17% to 30%) and the r value to fall below 0.60.
Result: This situation would increase selling pressure in the banking sector and pull the index further down to the 14.500-14.700 range; the selling effect would also spread to relatively strong stocks such as retail and energy.
Invalidation Condition: If the oscillator developments described above (RSI rising above 30, MACD turning positive) occur, this scenario becomes invalid.

Split Strategy

Core Position: In relatively strong stocks such as BIMAS and TUPRS, a small long position can be maintained on days when RSI is between 45-55 and MACD is slightly positive; the invalidation condition for this position is RSI falling below 40 or MACD turning negative again.
Triggered Sale: If banking stocks' RSI falls below 30 and ADX remains above 30, it could be considered to reduce or completely close positions; for this condition to be invalidated, RSI needs to rise above 35 and MACD needs to turn positive.

6. Recommended Stocks for the Day

In the technical scan and oscillatorBUY orSTRONG BUY no stocks are signaling. Therefore, the table has been left blank.

Stock	Signal	Base Scenario	Optimistic Scenario	Invalidation Condition	Reason

Note: No stocks were detected that gave a BUY/STRONG BUY signal based on technical and oscillator data during the day; therefore, the recommended stock list has been left blank.