Deep Analysis

1. Market Summary and Overview

As of 19:51 (Turkish time) on Thursday, 8 October 2026, the BIST 30 (XU030) stood at 15.137.57, up 0.82% on the day; the BIST 100 (XU100) stood at 12.213.58, up 0.75 per cent for the day; USD/TRY stood at 49.21 TL, up 0.03 per cent for the day; and the XU030’s daily performance in US dollar terms was up 0.80 per cent.

The 8 October real-time data set shows a recovery in the two indices, which had been trading at previous levels of 15.013.83 and 12.122.94. This table can be interpreted as a partial recovery following the declines recorded on the evening of 7 October, when the XU030 fell by %-2,3915 and the XU100 by %-2,031. Whilst the positive daily performance of the indices is significant, the volatility at the individual share level is not uniform. ASTOR (+6.81 per cent), TRMET (+3.40 per cent), TUPRS (+3.29 per cent), GUBRF (+2.71 per cent) and PETKM (+2.69 per cent) are among the standout gainers; YKBNK (-2.57 per cent), KCHOL (-1.87 per cent), AKBNK (-1.59 per cent) and THYAO (-1.46 per cent) were among the decliners.

On the exchange rate front, the USD/TRY’s rise of just 0.03 per cent meant that the XU030’s 0.82 per cent performance in TL terms remained close to 0.80 per cent in dollar terms. Consequently, the index’s gains were not significantly eroded by exchange rate movements. By contrast, the 60-day picture is far more mixed: alongside positive outperformers such as TUPRS (+39.5 per cent), KCHOL (+9.7 per cent) and TRMET (+7.0 per cent), there are notable underperformers such as ASTOR (-36.8 per cent), MGROS (-20.1 per cent), PGSUS (-19.1 per cent), EREGL -16.9 per cent and SISE -16.0 per cent. For this reason, the recovery in the indices should be interpreted not as a simultaneous shift in risk appetite across all shares, but as a selective movement led by strong performers.

The macroeconomic outlook also supports this selectivity. The most recently published annual inflation rate for Turkey, with a reference date of September 2026, stands at 29.73 per cent; the monthly inflation rate is 1.84 per cent. Although the annual inflation rate has fallen from the previous figure of 31.51 per cent, it remains high. The policy rate stands at 37.0 per cent, M3 annual growth at 29,7058 per cent and the consumer credit rate at 64.74 per cent. This combination creates two-way risks: in interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as consumption and property, it affects selectivity; whilst in the banking sector, it poses risks regarding margins and funding conditions. Although macroeconomic data do not directly dictate stock selection, they indicate that high and volatile financial conditions are clearly weighing on the underlying outlook.

In the context of international markets, data from the evening of 7 October shows that the DXY stood at 102,281998, up by 0,4439 per cent, the US 30-year bond yield stood at 5,661 per cent, up by 0,3549 per cent, and the VIX stood at 15.08, up by 0,4664 per cent. The price of gold per gram fell by 1,0665 per cent to 6.544.6484 TL, whilst Brent crude rose by 0,5866 per cent to 101,169998 USD per barrel, whilst WTI fell by 0,2907 per cent to 89.18 USD per barrel. These divergences highlight that sector rotations cannot be explained by a single macroeconomic variable and underscore the importance of stock-specific technical confirmation.

2. Sector-Based Evaluation

In the heat map that can be generated from technical screening data based on sector tags, the strongest signal comes not so much from an entire sector as from the energy and petrochemicals sector, as represented by TUPRS. TUPRS stands out with a daily performance of 3.29 per cent and a 60-day performance of 39.5 per cent, whilst the short-term recommendation is ‘HOLD’, the medium- and long-term recommendations are ‘BUY’, the Wave Trend recommendation is ‘BUY’, the overall outlook is ‘BUY’ and the oscillator recommendation is ‘BUY’. Within the same sector, whilst PETKM has risen by 2.69 per cent on a daily basis, its overall outlook is SELL; ASTOR, despite rising by 6.81 per cent on a daily basis, has a 60-day performance of -36.8 per cent, an overall outlook of SELL, a Wave Trend of BUY AT BOTTOM and an oscillator recommendation of STRONG SELL. ENKAI is also in the ‘STRONG SELL’ zone in terms of its technical overall outlook and oscillator readings. Consequently, the energy and petrochemicals sector is not generally a ‘strong sector’, but rather a group exhibiting high selectivity, led by TUPRS. The ‘BUY ON DIP’ Wave Trend signal for ASTOR can be interpreted as an attempt at a counter-trend reaction within the current downtrend; it does not, on its own, confirm a trend reversal.

The banking sector is more clearly divided. VAKBN’s 60-day performance of 5.8 per cent represents the strongest positive cluster within the sector, with a short-term ‘HOLD’, medium- and long-term ‘BUY’, Wave Trend ‘BUY’, overall outlook ‘BUY’ and oscillator recommendation ‘BUY’. In contrast, YKBNK has an overall outlook of ‘SELL’ and an oscillator recommendation of ‘SELL’; GARAN has a technical overall outlook of ‘SELL’ and an oscillator recommendation of ‘STRONG SELL’; ISCTR has a technical outlook of ‘SELL’ and an oscillator recommendation of ‘STRONG SELL’; whilst AKBNK is rated ‘STRONG SELL’ on both the technical and oscillator fronts. VAKBN’s positive outlook within the banking group has not spread to the sector as a whole. This divergence makes it difficult to draw a comprehensive conclusion regarding an overall upward trend in the banking sector.

Within the transport sector, TAVHL is diverging significantly from THYAO and PGSUS. TAVHL has a short-term ‘Buy’, ‘Wave Trend Buy’ and ‘Oscillator Buy’ recommendation, whilst the medium and long-term outlook is ‘Hold’ and the overall outlook is ‘Neutral’. With a Pearson correlation of 0.02, TAVHL is exhibiting a predominantly sideways movement pattern rather than a strong linear trend. THYAO and PGSUS, on the other hand, are in the ‘STRONG SELL’ zone in terms of their overall technical outlook and oscillator recommendations. Consequently, TAVHL’s positive short-term outlook in the transport sector does not constitute confirmation of a sector-wide turnaround.

There is a more pronounced signal conflict in the property and telecoms sector. EKGYO shows a ‘Buy’ signal on the oscillator, but the overall technical outlook is ‘Sell’; the medium- and long-term outlook is also ‘Sell’. Although the oscillator recommendation for TCELL is ‘Buy’, the short-, medium- and long-term outlook, as well as the overall technical outlook, is ‘Sell’. Given that TCELL’s channel position is 77 per cent and its Pearson correlation is –0.71, this indicates that the improvement in the oscillator has taken place within a negatively sloping channel. TTKOM, on the other hand, is a STRONG SELL both technically and according to the oscillator. Consequently, the ‘oscillator BUY’ label for EKGYO and TCELL is not, on its own, a sufficient reason to open a new position; the overall technical outlook must also improve.

Weak signal intensity is particularly evident in the retail, chemicals, automotive, defence and food sectors. Although BIMAS is positive at 1.71 per cent daily and 1.8 per cent over 60 days, the short-term, Wave Trend, overall outlook and oscillator all indicate a ‘SELL’. MGROS presents a weaker picture with a 60-day performance of -20.1 per cent and a ‘STRONG SELL’ oscillator recommendation. GUBRF and SASA are showing ‘STRONG SELL’ signals on both the technical and oscillator fronts. TOASO and FROTO have 60-day performances of -11.8 per cent; TOASO’s oscillator is ‘SELL’, whilst FROTO’s is ‘STRONG SELL’. ASELS is ‘STRONG SELL’ on both the technical and oscillator fronts, whilst TRALT is also ‘STRONG SELL’. AEFES, meanwhile, is in the negative group with a 60-day performance of -10.7 per cent and a ‘SELL’ oscillator recommendation.

In the metals sector, TRMET is neutral, KRDMD is a SELL, and EREGL is a STRONG SELL. Although TRMET’s long-term BUY and Wave Trend BUY outlooks are positive, the fact that the Pearson correlation is only 0.29 indicates that this signal receives weak confirmation in terms of the linear trend. EREGL’s channel position is 62 per cent and its Pearson correlation is -0.77; the high channel position here should be interpreted not as an upward movement, but as a relatively strong position within a negative trend.

Consequently, rather than a ‘strong sector’ on the sector heatmap, two high-quality shares stand out: TUPRS and VAKBN. Whilst TAVHL and TRMET offer positive outlooks at an earlier stage, EKGYO and TCELL are in the ‘watch’ group due to oscillator-technical divergence. Conversely, the high concentration of ‘SELL’ and ‘STRONG SELL’ ratings in the chemicals, retail, automotive, telecoms, defence and holding sectors indicates that risk appetite across the sector as a whole has not yet recovered.

3. Technical Visual Analysis

The data set does not provide EMA levels, but rather summarises short-, medium- and long-term trends. Consequently, the EMA sequence is interpreted solely on the basis of this trio; EMA price levels or crossover points not present in the data set are not used. Similarly, as the lower and upper price limits of the regression channel are not provided, only the percentage position within the channel and the Pearson correlation are assessed.

TUPRS and VAKBN are the two shares with the most clearly positive EMA summaries. For both, the short-term recommendation is ‘HOLD’, whilst the medium- and long-term recommendations are ‘BUY’. This combination points to a structure where the medium- and long-term trend is positive, but the very short-term trend has not yet been fully confirmed. The fact that TUPRS has a ‘Buy’ recommendation for both the Wave Trend and the overall outlook, and that VAKBN shares the same recommendations, reinforces this picture. The fact that the short-term outlook remains ‘HOLD’ does not necessarily mean the uptrend will continue; it leaves room for the possibility that momentum may level off or that a short-term pullback may occur.

For TAVHL, the short-term recommendation is BUY, whilst the medium- and long-term recommendations are HOLD. This resembles an initial pattern where the current movement is positive in the short term, but the long-term EMA trend has not yet formed. For TRMET, the short- and medium-term outlook is ‘WAIT’, whilst the long-term outlook is ‘BUY’; Wave Trend, however, is ‘BUY’. This combination indicates that, whilst there is an expectation of a long-term reversal for TRMET, short- and medium-term confirmation is lacking. For PETKM, the medium-term signal is SELL; for TOASO and SISE, the short- and medium-term signals are SELL; and for ASELS and TRALT, the short- and medium-term signals are SELL. The fact that the long-term signals for these groups are BUY or HOLD does not, on its own, eliminate the current weakness.

On the Wave Trend side, the ‘Buy’ signals for TUPRS, VAKBN and TAVHL provide positive confirmation. In contrast, although EKGYO, ISCTR, GARAN, PETKM, TOASO, SISE, TCELL, AEFES, YKBNK and SAHOL are ‘Buy’ on the Wave Trend, the overall technical outlook is ‘Sell’ or ‘Neutral’. This divergence indicates that the Wave Trend can capture an earlier and shorter-term reaction but does not, on its own, alter the overall outlook. The fact that ASTOR is showing a ‘Buy at the Bottom’ signal on the Wave Trend is an even more pronounced counter-trend signal: ASTOR’s 60-day performance is -36.8 per cent, the Pearson correlation is -0.66, the ADX is 38.02 and the oscillator recommendation is ‘Strong Sell’. This ‘BUY ON DIP’ signal should be interpreted as a search for a rebound within a downtrend; it should not be used as confirmation for a new buy position.

When the regression channel and Pearson correlation are analysed together, the highest-quality positive matches in the dataset are again found in TUPRS and VAKBN. TUPRS’s channel position is 18 per cent, with a Pearson correlation of 0.83; VAKBN’s channel position is 29 per cent, with a Pearson correlation of 0.75. In both shares, the channel position is positive and the Pearson correlation is high. This indicates that the technical outlook is not based solely on a single day’s surge, but also that the price has not yet reached the upper limit of the channel. In TUPRS, whilst there has been a strong 60-day performance of 39.5 per cent, the channel position stands at just 18 per cent; this can be interpreted as the uptrend not yet having moved into the upper region of the channel. In the case of VAKBN, however, given the low ADX value, it should be considered that the same positive structure is forming a slower and more limited trend.

A high positive Pearson correlation coefficient does not always indicate an upward trend. Although BIMAS has a Pearson correlation of 0.74, its overall outlook is ‘SELL’, its Wave Trend is ‘SELL’ and its channel position is -2 per cent. Although KCHOL’s correlation is 0.72 and its 60-day performance is 9.7 per cent positive, the overall outlook is ‘Sell’, the Wave Trend is ‘Sell’ and the daily performance is -1.87 per cent. In the case of YKBNK, although the Pearson correlation is 0.63, the short- and medium-term outlook is ‘Sell’ and the overall outlook is ‘Sell’. These examples demonstrate that a high correlation merely indicates that price movements are regular; the direction must be confirmed separately by the EMA summary and the overall outlook.

Negative Pearson values and high channel positions also pose a significant risk. TCELL has a channel position of 77 per cent and a Pearson correlation of -0.71; AEFES has 77 per cent and -0.82; MGROS at 64 per cent and -0.91, THYAO at 59 per cent and -0.88, and EREGL at 62 per cent and -0.77. These combinations indicate that the price is at a relatively high point within a negatively sloping channel. A high channel position does not mean the stock is ‘cheap’ in this context; it suggests that the rebound within a downtrend could be strong, but that the primary trend has not yet reversed.

BIMAS’s -2 per cent channel position, as well as the low channel positions of TRALT at 9 per cent and PGSUS at 10 per cent, can also be observed in weak trends. However, a low channel position does not, in itself, constitute a buying opportunity. The overall technical outlook and oscillator recommendation for TRALT and PGSUS is ‘STRONG SELL’; for BIMAS, it is ‘SELL’. Therefore, a low channel position should be monitored as an area where the current rate of decline may be slowing or where a rebound could occur; a bottom should not be assumed without technical confirmation.

4. Oscillator and Momentum Readings

RSI values do not indicate any particular share that is in the classic overbought or oversold zone on the intraday chart. The highest RSI value is 54.27 for TAVHL, followed by TUPRS at 51.29, EKGYO at 51.07, TCELL at 51.06 and VAKBN at 50.91. These figures indicate that momentum in the relevant shares has not reached the overbought threshold and is largely in the mid-range. On the other hand, the lowest RSI values are 33.94 for SASA, 34.52 for ASTOR, 34.62 for TRALT and 35.04 for PGSUS. Although this group shows weak momentum, it does not yet constitute a classic oversold confirmation in terms of the RSI.

There are only a few shares with a positive MACD. VAKBN is at 0.16, TAVHL at 0.14 and YKBNK at 0.02, all on the positive side. TUPRS’s MACD value is -0.09; EKGYO’s is -0.06, TCELL’s is -0.43 and PETKM’s is -0.37. Despite TUPRS’s strong technical outlook, the fact that the MACD remains negative indicates that, whilst the medium- and long-term trends are positive, the very short-term momentum has not yet been fully confirmed. In VAKBN, the positive MACD, together with other indicators, paints a more balanced picture. In YKBNK, however, despite the positive MACD, the overall technical outlook and oscillator recommendation is ‘SELL’; this divergence does not, on its own, confirm a trend reversal.

Stochastic values are close to the upper band but appear to be at excessively high levels. EKGYO at 72.44, YKBNK at 71.45, TCELL at 70.21 and TAVHL at 70.1 are in the high stochastic zone. These values suggest that short-term momentum in existing positions may slow down or a correction may occur. Conversely, TRALT at 7.05, BIMAS at 8.8, PGSUS at 12.97, ENKAI at 13.74, FROTO at 15.07, MGROS at 17.15, SASA at 18.82 and ASTOR at 20.41 are in the low zone. However, most of these low valuations are found in shares where technical and oscillator indicators suggest a ‘SELL’ or ‘STRONG SELL’. A low stochastic reading merely indicates that selling pressure may be easing; it does not confirm an uptrend.

The CCI also indicates that the overall momentum remains weak. EKGYO at 4.73, YKBNK at 14.02, TCELL at 20.7 and TAVHL at 48.46 are on the positive side. TUPRS is at -44.19, VAKBN at -38.56, KCHOL at -76.13, TRMET at -56.82, TOASO at -87.54 and FROTO at -77.92. Despite the positive technical outlook for TUPRS and VAKBN in particular, the fact that the CCI remains negative means the rally lacks full momentum support. The fact that BIMAS’s CCI stands at -158.37, ENKAI’s at -144.91, PGSUS’s at -143.67 and ASELS’s at -139.99 indicates that momentum pressure within this group is strong.

The ADX merely measures the strength of a trend; it does not provide information on its direction. TUPRS’s ADX value is 30.31, whilst VAKBN’s is 13.93. The high ADX for TUPRS, when combined with a technical ‘Buy’ signal, indicates a more pronounced trend. In VAKBN, the low ADX suggests that the positive EMA and Wave Trend structure are developing more slowly, implying a gradual outlook. TAVHL’s ADX value is 14.88, EREGL’s is 12.72 and PETKM’s is 12.79; trend strength is limited in these shares.

On the downside, high ADX values carry greater risk. ASTOR 38.02, GUBRF 34.8, MGROS 34.63, SAHOL 34.93, ENKAI 30.29, THYAO 30.09 and TRALT 30.19. When these high ADX values are combined with directional indicators such as MACD, CCI, the overall picture and 60-day performance, they mostly support strong downtrends. In particular, the combination of a high ADX and a STRONG SELL recommendation for ASTOR, GUBRF and MGROS indicates that the decline is not merely a weak reaction.

In the oscillator’s aggregate recommendations, TAVHL is in the positive group with 14 BUY, 4 SELL and 10 NEUTRAL; TUPRS with 15 BUY, 5 SELL and 8 NEUTRAL; and VAKBN with 13 BUY, 6 SELL and 9 NEUTRAL. Although EKGYO and TCELL also have a majority of ‘Buy’ oscillator readings, their overall technical outlook is ‘Sell’. PGSUS: Buy 3, Sell 19, Neutral 6; AKBNK: Buy 1, Sell 19, Neutral 8; GARAN has 2 ‘Buy’, 18 ‘Sell’ and 8 ‘Neutral’ recommendations. This divergence clearly demonstrates that the aggregate oscillator recommendation should not be relied upon in isolation.

5. Risk Map and Scenarios

The total value of the demo portfolio is 93.538.75 TL, its daily performance is -0.64 per cent and its return since the start on 6 September 2026 is -6.46 per cent. The benchmark values are 102.031.20 TL for USD, 95.558.92 TL for GOLD, 104.021.53 TL for DEPOSIT, 85.335.99 TL for XU100 and 89.398.45 TL for XU030. The fact that all of the portfolio’s benchmark values are below these figures indicates that the current risk appetite remains generally conservative. As the dataset does not include portfolio weights or the cash ratio, it is not possible to calculate a numerical allocation ratio or a cash target.

The key market risk is that the index recovery is not being evenly distributed across shares. Whilst TUPRS and VAKBN are trading positively, stocks such as AKBNK, GARAN, ISCTR, TTKOM, MGROS, ASELS, GUBRF, SASA and THYAO continue to see a concentration of SELL or STRONG SELL recommendations. This indicates that the rise in the index alone warrants caution regarding new shares. In particular, whilst VAKBN is rated ‘Buy’ in the banking sector, the fact that other banks remain weak increases the risk of intra-sector correlation.

The risk for TUPRS stems from the concentration effect created by its strong 60-day performance of 39.5 per cent and a Pearson correlation of 0.83. The ADX of 30.31 suggests the trend may be strong; however, short-term momentum is not entirely positive due to the MACD of -0.09 and the CCI of -44.19. As the ADX for VAKBN is low at 13.93, the trend may progress more slowly; this implies that the positive outlook requires more gradual and longer-term confirmation.

On the macroeconomic front, with annual inflation at 29.73 per cent and monthly inflation at 1.84 per cent in September 2026; with the policy rate at 37.0 per cent, the consumer credit rate at 64.74 per cent and credit growth at 64.74.3222 per cent, indicating that financial conditions remain tight. This increases the risk of a faster reversal in the improvements seen in consumer and property share prices. Conversely, whilst a high-interest-rate environment may be supportive for banks in terms of net interest income, it is exacerbating sector-wide divergence due to funding and credit quality risks.

In the international markets, the rise in the DXY and the increase in US 30-year bond yields, as seen in the data released on the evening of 7 October, should be monitored in terms of valuations and risk premiums in emerging markets. The 1,0665 per cent fall in the price of gold per gram is a factor supporting the gold-based benchmark; however, the difference between the portfolio’s GOLD benchmark and the total portfolio cannot be explained solely by movements in the price of gold. The fact that Brent crude is rising whilst WTI is falling also makes it difficult to draw a one-sided conclusion regarding oil in the energy sector.

In the base scenario, the positive daily performance of XU030 and XU100 is likely to continue selectively, shares such as TUPRS and VAKBN, which have a ‘Buy’ technical outlook, are likely to remain relatively strong, whilst those with a weak outlook, such as EKGYO, TCELL and TAVHL, are likely to generate only a limited response. In this scenario, market breadth remains narrow, and managing existing positions through risk diversification becomes more important than making new purchases.

The optimistic scenario involves not only a positive trend in the indices but also the medium- and long-term signals for TAVHL—which has a NEUTRAL overall technical outlook—turning to BUY, or the oscillator BUY signal for EKGYO and TCELL being supported by their overall technical outlook. Under these conditions, intra-sector divergence may decrease. However, based on the current data, this condition has not yet materialised.

The bearish scenario involves the ‘Wave Trend Buy’ or general ‘Buy’ signals for TUPRS and VAKBN turning into ‘Sell’ signals, the early positive signals for TAVHL and TRMET weakening, and an increase in strong ‘Sell’ signals. In this scenario, the current positive index movement becomes even more selective amongst individual shares. In particular, the risk of a sharp continuation of the downtrend increases in shares showing negative trends with high ADX values.

In terms of position impact, three distinct categories can be considered. The first category comprises the confirmed positive group, where both technical and oscillator indicators are in the ‘Buy’ zone, such as TUPRS and VAKBN. The second basket comprises stocks such as TAVHL and TRMET, which offer only partial confirmation—either short-term or long-term—and require further monitoring. EKGYO and TCELL should be assessed more cautiously within this second basket due to a divergence between their oscillator and technical indicators. The third category comprises stocks such as ASTOR, AKBNK, GUBRF, MGROS, PGSUS, SASA, THYAO, TTKOM and similar, which are in the ‘STRONG SELL’ group from a technical or oscillator perspective; in this group, confirmation of the overall outlook and a change in the Wave Trend is required before adding new risk.

The dataset does not contain absolute support and resistance levels. Therefore, only the current observed prices can be used as a reference: XU030 15.137.57, XU100 12.213.58, TUPRS 392.25 TL, VAKBN 33.66 TL, TAVHL 275.75 TL, EKGYO 19.61 TL and TCELL 100.2 TL. These levels serve as reference points for monitoring price movements; they should not be used as new support, resistance or price targets.

6. Recommended Stocks for the Day

Two shares with an overall technical outlook of ‘BUY’ and a TradingView oscillator recommendation of ‘BUY’ are listed in the table under a common filter. Whilst TAVHL’s short-term and Wave Trend outlooks are ‘BUY’, its overall outlook is ‘NEUTRAL’; EKGYO and TCELL, on the other hand, have a ‘BUY’ oscillator reading but an overall technical outlook of ‘SELL’. ASTOR’s Wave Trend ‘BUY ON DIP’ signal is not included in the ‘BUY/STRONG BUY’ table due to the current strong ‘SELL’ oscillator reading and the negative 60-day trend.