Deep Analysis

1. Market Summary and Overview

23 October 2026, Friday, 18:08 (Türkiye time), XU030 (BIST 30): last close 13,957.94 | previous close 14,010.86 | daily ‑0.38%; XU100 (BIST 100): last close 11,176.57 | previous close 11,220.37 | daily ‑0.39%; USD/TRY: 49.73 | previous 49.62 | daily +0.22%.

While the BIST 30 index traded intraday at 13,957.94 points with a 0.38% decline, the broader BIST 100 index also experienced a similar loss of momentum. The slight rise of the Dolar/TL rate (0.22%) points to the TL's loss of value, and hence to the negative effect of foreign capital flows. The rise of Brent crude to the 113.30 USD/barrel level increases the cost of energy inputs, while the VIX's 19.7% rise shows that market volatility has increased. In macro data, Türkiye's annual inflation is running at 29.73% and monthly at 1.84%; the policy rate stayed fixed at 37.0%. In this environment, high inflation and exchange rate pressure against the strong TL can strain the profit margins of companies earning revenue in foreign currency in particular.

2. Sector-Based Evaluation

2.1 Energy & Petrochemicals

• Tüpraş (TUPRS) (company) andPetkim (PETKM) technical signals show long-term Tüpraş (TUPRS) and Petkim (PETKM). However, the Wave Trend (WT) and overall signals point to SELL, indicating short-term pressure.

• Enka İnşaat — ENKAI andAstor Energy (ASTOR) carries "SELL" signals in both the short and medium term and "BEKLE" (wait) in the long term; WT is also "SELL". Although the price rise in the energy sector (Brent) is a positive factor, high inflation and rising costs can strain companies.

2.2 Banking

• "Vakıfbank (VAKBN)"], İş Bankası — ISCTR, Yapi Kredi (YKBNK), Garanti BBVA (GARAN) andAkbank (AKBNK) technically receives a "STRONG SELL" signal; WT is also SELL. The short-term negative momentum may be the reflection of the slight slowdown in credit growth (annually 36.3%) and the slight decline in the deposit rate (43.04% → 43.795%).

2.3 Holdings

• Sabancı Holding — SAHOL andKoç Holding — KCHOL technical signals "STRONG SELL". SAHOL's WT=AL forms an exception; however, the oscillators are in the "SELL" direction, limiting the possibility of a short-term recovery.

2.4 Retail & Food

• BIM (BIMAS) andMigros (MGROS) " carries "STRONG SELL (GÜÇLÜ SAT)" signals; RSI values (BIMAS 37.74; MGROS 25.5) are near the oversold zone, but MACD is negative and CCI deeply negative, showing that momentum is still weak.

2.5 Automotive & Metals

• Tofaş — TOASO, Ford Otosan — FROTO, TR Anadolu Metal — TRMET andKardemir (KRDMD) technically "STRONG SELL". In particular, TOASO's oversold indicators such as RSI 27.63 and StochK 6.01 imply there could be a short-term recovery opportunity; however, the long-term trend is still downward.

2.6 Telecom & Aviation

• Turkcell (TTKOM), Turkcell (TCELL) (stock code), TAV Airports (TAVHL) andTürk Hava Yolları — THYAO all "STRONG SELL". RSI values are in the 30‑45 range while ADX varies between 13 and 44; this shows the trend is continuing with a strong orientation but volatility is rising.

2.7 Other Sectors

• Şişecam (SISE, company), Gübre Fabrikaları — GUBRF, Sasa Polyester — SASA andEreğli Demir Çelik — EREGL technically "STRONG SELL". In particular, EREGL's %‑9.86 daily drop and Pearson r ‑0.62 confirm the trend has a strong negative inclination.

3. Technical Visual Analysis

3.1 EMA Alignments and Channel Positions

In the technical scan data, the "channel %" values show how close prices are to the upper or lower boundary of the regression channel. Positive channel % values (e.g. SAHOL 47%, KCHOL 4%) point to the upper part of the channel, negative values (e.g. GUBRF %‑15, EREGL %‑36) to the lower part.

• Positive channel: Stocks such as SAHOL, KCHOL, GARAN, YKBNK have brought their prices near the channel's upper boundary; this shows short-term resistance levels are close and the upside may be limited.

• Negative channel: Stocks such as GUBRF, EREGL, TRALT, SASA are moving in the lower part of the channel; this points to the oversold zone but also carries the risk that the price can fall further.

3.2 Wave Trend (WT) and Pearson r

WT signals are in the "BUY" or "SELL" direction, and the Pearson r correlation coefficient measures the trend strength of the price move. An R value near +1 shows a positive trend, near –1 a negative trend.

• Positive r (> 0.4): Banking stocks such as VAKBN (+0.50), ISCTR (+0.28), YKBNK (+0.28) show prices have a slight upward tendency; however, since WT is "SELL", short-term pressure persists.

• Negative r (< ‑0.5): Stocks such as TUPRS (‑0.46), ASELS (‑0.50), KCHOL (‑0.06) carry negative correlation; this shows prices are in a downtrend and paints a picture consistent with the WT "SELL" signal.

3.3 Diverging Stocks

• TUPRS: Long-term BUY signal (long=BUY) and a 24%,6% 60-day rise, but WT=SELL and r=‑0.46 negative correlation; this contradiction supports the scenario that the price can turn back upward after a short-term correction.

• SAHOL: WT=BUY but overall signal SELL; r=‑0.41 negative, channel 47% positive; this shows there is medium-term recovery potential but the current pressure is still effective.

• ASELS: WT=BUY, r=‑0.50, channel 34%; technically a strong BUY signal exists in the defense sector, but negative correlation and low RSI (43.87) point to oversold risk.

4. Oscillator and Momentum Readings

General Takeaways

• RSI: Many stocks in the 30‑40 range give an oversold signal (TOASO, GUBRF, EREGL). This can increase the likelihood of a short-term recovery.

• MACD: Most stocks have a negative MACD value; this shows the downward momentum is still dominant.

• Stochastic K: Those below 20 (TOASO, PETKM, GUBRF) are oversold; Sabancı Holding (SAHOL) signals the risk of overbought levels.

• CCI20: - Those below 200 (TCELL, TTKOM, EREGL) show strong negative momentum; those around -100 (SAHOL, ASELS) are more balanced.

• ADX: Values above 30 (TCELL 28.71; THYAO 43.76) confirm that the trend is strong but the direction is negative.

5. Risk Map and Scenarios

5.1 Upside Scenario

• Macro Support: Eurozone inflation staying fixed at the 2.5% level and US consumer confidence coming in below expectations can reduce risk appetite and direct safe-haven flows to the TL.

• Exchange Rate Dynamics: The 0.22% rise in USD/TRY points to the TL's slight loss of value; however, the DXY's %‑0.17 decline shows the dollar's general weakness. This situation can provide short-term support to exporters earning revenue in foreign currency (e.g. TUPRS, PETKM).

• Sectoral Improvement: The rise in energy prices (Brent 113 USD) can improve the gross margin of energy companies such as Tüpraş and Petkim. At the same time, the 1.4% increase in consumer spending in retail (retail sales monthly) can signal rising demand for BİM and Migros.

Base Scenario (Most Likely)

• Global Risk: US interest rates staying at 4.0% can sustain the pressure against the TL.

• Local inflation: % Annual inflation of 29.73% erodes real purchasing power; this can make sales particularly difficult in the retail and food sectors.

• Sectoral Trend: "STRONG SELL (GÜÇLÜ SAT)" signals still dominate in banking and holdings; the slowdown in credit growth and the slight decline in deposit rates can narrow profit margins.

5.2 Downside Scenario

• Currency Shock: A rise of USD/TRY above the 1.0% level (example: 50.5 TL) can accelerate the TL's loss of value and increase the financial burden of foreign-currency-debtor companies (e.g. energy, construction).

• Inflation Increase: Exceeding the monthly inflation target of 2.3% can raise real interest rates and push consumer spending down further.

• Policy Rate: If the Merkez Bankası's further 100 basis point cut (example: 36%) is perceived as a risky move, market volatility can push the VIX to the 30%‑35 levels.

5.3 Splitting Strategies

• Short-Term (1‑5 days): For stocks with RSI < 30 and StochK < 20 (TOASO, GUBRF, EREGL), a technical entry in the "oversold" zone can be considered; however, the deeply negative MACD indicates the rebound may be limited.

• Medium-Term (1‑4 weeks): SAHOL and ASELS carrying WT=BUY signals can be watched together with long-term Tüpraş (TUPRS); however, since the oscillators are in the "SELL" direction, the price can first be expected to make a correction.

• Long-Term (1‑3 months): Stocks with positive Pearson r (+0.4 and above) and positive channel % (SAHOL, KCHOL, GARAN) can carry strong upside potential if a resistance break occurs as the trend's upper boundary is approached.

6. Recommended Stocks for the Day

Note: The table contains only stocks giving a "BUY" or "STRONG BUY (GÜÇLÜ AL)" signal. The provided technical scan and oscillator results produced signals in either the "SELL" or "STRONG SELL (GÜÇLÜ SAT)" direction across all BIST 30 stocks. In this context, since there is no clear technical confirmation in the buying direction, opening a new long position is not recommended from a risk management perspective. Investors are advised to focus on short-term protection (stop-loss) strategies against the existing "SELL" signals and on portfolio diversification.