BIST 30 INVESTMENT AND STRATEGY REPORT
Date: Monday, September 7, 2026
1. Executive Summary and Market Overview
Dear investors,
As we close out the last trading day of the week, we maintain our cautious and selective stance on the BIST 30 index. The fundamental dynamics that have been driving the market throughout the past week - geopolitical tensions originating from Iran, the persistent high level of natural gas prices at 71 euros, and global recession concerns - continue to exert their influence. The bounce-back we observed on Friday should be evaluated as a temporary respite in the oversold zone rather than a harbinger of a permanent trend reversal.
We are closely monitoring the impact of the "Up Step Rule" recently implemented on Borsa İstanbul on the market microstructure. This regulation can function as a mechanism to slow down selling pressure, particularly during periods of high volatility; however, it should not be viewed as a standalone catalyst for a trend reversal. Our fund management will steadfastly continue the strategy of maintaining small position sizes and preserving high cash levels until we receive a clear signal of a trend reversal in the current economic context.
On a weekly basis, a significant negative divergence is evident in the index; we observe that companies operating in energy-intensive sectors are under margin pressure, while companies reliant on domestic demand and with strong pricing power are showing relatively resilient performance. This divergence once again confirms the importance of a selective sector-based approach in portfolio construction.
2. News and Macroeconomic Assessment
2.1 Geopolitical Risks and Energy Shock
Iran's "economic war" statement and two critical contact news highlights the economic dimension of regional tensions. These statements keep upward pressure on energy prices alive, and we anticipate that if natural gas prices remain permanently above the 71 euro level, it could adversely affect Turkey's current account dynamics and inflation outlook. This increase in energy costs is directly pressuring the operational margins of energy-intensive producers such as EREGL, SISE, and TUPRS.
IMF President Georgieva's statement that "the global economy is resisting the energy shock" indicates that international organizations are also closely monitoring this situation. However, the limits of this resistance will be tested by the upcoming US inflation data and ECB interest rate decision in the coming period. The fact that global markets are locked on these two critical data points indicates fragile risk appetite.
2.2 Domestic Macroeconomic Outlook
Ahead of Cevdet Yılmaz's OVP announcement, market participants are seeking clues regarding the growth-inflation balance in the medium-term program. Survey results indicating an expected inflation rate of 28.4% support optimism about the continuation of the disinflation process; however, there remains a risk that rising energy costs could disrupt this process.
The additional 1.1 billion dollars provided to Halkbank can be evaluated as a development that alleviates the pressure on funding costs in the banking sector. This situation can help stimulate domestic demand by supporting the credit mechanism of state-owned banks. However, whether the cost of this funding is advantageous compared to market conditions should be closely monitored in terms of its impact on banks' net interest margins.
2.3 Foreign Trade and Current Account
Turkey's exports to EU countries approaching $72 billion and Iraq's oil exports reaching 3 million barrels are recorded as positive signals in foreign trade. The news titled "Turkey's Economy's Resilience to External Shocks is Strengthening" shows that exporting firms are benefiting from the exchange rate advantage and market diversification is yielding positive results. Export-oriented automotive companies such as TOASO and FROTO are relatively positively affected by these developments.
3rd Technical Evaluation (Stock-based)
3.1 Positively Diverging Stocks
KCHOL (215.10 TL; %+0.51): KCHOL, which has shown significant positive divergence against the index on a weekly basis, has managed to stay above the 210 TL support level. This resilience stems from the holding's diversified portfolio structure in non-energy and non-financial sectors. Technically, closing above 215 TL provides a positive signal for the continuation of the movement towards the 225 TL target level. The RSI indicator is in the neutral zone and is not in the overbought or oversold region.
BIMAS (415.75 TL; %+0.06): The inflation-resistant structure of the retail sector has positioned BIMAS stock as a safe haven in current market conditions. Maintaining the 415 TL support level is critically important for the short-term outlook. Volume support is needed for the stock to test the 430 TL resistance level; current volume levels are insufficient to overcome this resistance.
ISCTR (13.01 TL; %+1.72): ISCTR, which shows the most resilient appearance in the banking sector, has managed to stay above the 13 TL psychological level. In the stock where foreign investor interest is particularly intense, if the 13.50 TL resistance is overcome, the 14 TL target could come to the agenda. The bank's strong equity structure and low ratio of non-performing loans also paint a positive picture in terms of fundamental indicators.
3.2 Negatively Diverging Stocks
EREGL (37.20 TL; %-5.01): EREGL, which is directly affected by rising energy costs, has been one of the weakest links in the index on a weekly basis. The 37 TL level is critically important in the short term; if this level is broken, selling pressure could intensify towards the 35 TL band. Weak global demand in the steel industry and rising energy costs are creating double pressure on the stock.
THYAO (296.00 TL; %-3.74): The airline industry is the most negatively affected by geopolitical risks