Deep Analysis

1. Market Summary and Overview

On October 22, 2026, Thursday, at 12:28, the BIST 30 (XU030) index stands at 14.429.66, a 0.23% decline from the previous close; the BIST 100 (XU100) index is at 11.546.81, down 0.26%, while the USD/TRY rate is at 49.62 with a 0.08% appreciation and XU030's dollar-based performance shows a 0.31% negative divergence after currency adjustment. Although selling pressure dominates intraday, the decline of indices is relatively moderate; this indicates that buyers are intervening at certain support levels but are waiting for a catalyst for a directional recovery. On the macro front, the realization of Türkiye-specific inflation data for September at 29.73% annually (1.84% monthly) reinforces the impression that the disinflation process is slowing but continuing; the TCMB policy rate holding at 37% ensures that real rates remain in positive territory. In the international arena, attack risks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities have pushed Brent oil above 110; the DXY is running relatively calm at 101.80; this development could increase import costs and jeopardize the current account improvement trend (surplus of 4.05 billion USD in August). Portfolio performance since inception with a loss of 11.88% shows relatively less damage compared to the XU030 (-13.55%) and XU100 (-18.19%) references; however, the daily decline of 2.30% signals a weakening of risk appetite. Regarding sector rotation, selective buying interest is visible in banking and aviation, while selling pressure continues in cyclical sectors such as retail, automotive, metals, and chemicals.

2. Sector-Based Evaluation

Banking

Two of the sector's four large names stand out with "BUY" signals in the technical scan and oscillator data: YKBNK (Yapı Kredi) and GARAN (Garanti BBVA); VAKBN (Vakıfbank), ISCTR (İş Bankası) and AKBNK (Akbank), on the other hand, remain in the "SELL/STRONG SELL" zone in both trend and momentum terms. YKBNK's +16.8% return over 60 days and its46% position within the channel indicate that the price is holding above the middle band of the regression channel; GARAN's58% channel position and RSI level of 52.92 show that the trend is still alive. VAKBN's channel13%, CCI -151 and ADX 14.66 values show a weakening trend, while AKBNK's negative MACD, StochK 41 and CCI -83 levels show it approaching the oversold zone but still too early for a change in direction. The sector's index-weighted effect may remain limited due to low volume.

Aviation & Transportation

THYAO (Türk Hava Yolları) and PGSUS (Pegasus) are in deep correction with 60-day performance of -13.5% and -12.2% respectively; TAVHL (TAV Havalimanları), on the other hand, is relatively resilient at +3.9%. TAVHL is the only stock posting a "BUY" signal in the technical scan and oscillators; channel68%, RSI 52.39, positive MACD (2.06) and StochK at 79.39 indicate upward momentum. In THYAO and PGSUS, RSI 36-37, CCI -146/-75 and ADX 40+ levels confirm a strong downtrend and oversold conditions; bottom-fishing attempts (WT "BUY THE DIP") carry high risk.

Holdings

SAHOL (Sabancı Holding) and KCHOL (Koç Holding) have a weak technical structure; SAHOL shows “NEUTRAL” on the oscillator (RSI 52.6, MACD -0.63), but there is a price-trend mismatch with the channel at58% and Pearson -0.32. KCHOL is in a deep decline with the “STRONG SELL” signal (channel8%, RSI 40, MACD -2.77, CCI -162). The NAV discounts of the holdings are widening and buyer demand remains limited.

Energy & Petrochemicals

TUPRS (Tüpraş) has the best performance with +26% over 60 days, but is experiencing oversold conditions and momentum loss with a technical "SELL" (short), "WAIT" (medium), WT "SELL", channel7%, RSI 37 and CCI -162. PETKM (Petkim), ENKAI (Enka İnşaat) and ASTOR (Astor Enerji) are experiencing trend breakdowns with "STRONG SELL" signals and negative Pearson coefficients (between -0.16 and -0.90). Brent at the 110 USD level could support refinery margins, but cost pressure in TL could squeeze margins.

Retail

BIMAS (BİM) and MGROS (Migros) are trading with "STRONG SELL (GÜÇLÜ SAT)" signals and in the RSI 30-40 band. BIMAS channel6%, MGROS channel38%; in both, CCI -112/-124 and ADX 23-44 levels confirm the strength of the trend. Consumer confidence at 91.9 points and the compression of real wages suppress demand expectations.

Metal & Mining

EREGL (Ereğli Demir Çelik), KRDMD (Kardemir), TRMET (TR Anadolu Metal) with "STRONG SELL" or "SELL" signals and negative momentum. Weakening Chinese data and the contraction in global industrial output (EU in August -0.5%, TR in August -1.0%) are pressuring prices. EREGL holds at channel50%, but with Pearson -0.61 there is a price-trend disconnect.

Other Sectors

Telecom (TCELL, TTKOM), Automotive (TOASO, FROTO), Chemicals/Fertilizers (GUBRF, SASA), Şişecam (SISE), Emlak Konut GYO (EKGYO), Türk Altın İşletmeleri (TRALT), Food/Anadolu Efes (AEFES), Aselsan (ASELS) are all signaling "STRONG SELL" or "SELL", with RSI 30-45, deep oversold between CCI -80 and -216 and MACD on a negative course. If a technical recovery (pullback) comes in these stocks, it should be evaluated as a selling opportunity.

3. Technical Visual Analysis

EMA Alignments and Trend Structure

The "short/medium/long" columns in the scan data are a summary of the EMA alignment; a "BUY" alignment indicates a rising trend, a "SELL" alignment a falling trend, while "WAIT" indicates an indecisive/sideways course. YKBNK, GARAN and TAVHL with "medium=BUY" show that the 20-50 day EMA alignment is upward; AKBNK, ISCTR, SAHOL, KCHOL, BIMAS, THYAO, FROTO, TCELL, SISE, SASA, GUBRF, ENKAI, TRALT, TOASO, PETKM, KRDMD, EREGL, TRMET, VAKBN, PGSUS, MGROS and ASTOR with "medium=SELL/WAIT" show that the 20-50 day EMA is horizontal/downward. The long-term (200 day) EMA alignment has mostly remained at "WAIT" or "SELL"; this indicates that the primary trend is still downward or sideways and that the medium-term structure of TAV Havalimanları (TAVHL) has not broken down.

Wave Trend (WT) and Momentum Reversals

Stocks where the WT oscillator gives "BUY": YKBNK, GARAN, TAVHL, SAHOL, ISCTR, ASELS, PGSUS, MGROS. In this list, ISCTR, ASELS, PGSUS and MGROS show "mid=SELL" in the technical scan and "SELL/STRONG SELL" in the oscillator, so the WT "BUY" signal carries a false start risk; SAHOL, on the other hand, is inconsistent with a "NEUTRAL" oscillator. Those that genuinely give a reliable WT "BUY" signal and are consistent with the other indicators: YKBNK, GARAN, TAVHL. PGSUS and MGROS, which give "BUY AT THE BOTTOM", make it dangerous to call a bottom with RSI 30-37, CCI -75/-124 and ADX 40+ in a strong downtrend; these signals are generally seen on the last breath of the trend.

Regression Channel Positions and Pearson Correlation

Channel percentage shows where the price sits in the regression channel;50% is the middle band,0% the lower band,100% the upper band. YKBNK46%, GARAN58%, TAVHL68% are in the middle-upper band range; the rise continues inside the trend channel. SAHOL is at58%, but Pearson -0.32 (price-trend divergence) draws attention. TUPRS7%, VAKBN13%, BIMAS6%, KCHOL8%, PETKM21%, KRDMD20%, AKBNK26%, EKGYO21%, TRMET%-10, TOASO%-8, TTKOM8%, GUBRF7%, ENKAI8%, EREGL50%, TRALT16%, SISE23%, SASA32%, AEFES38%, TCELL32%, FROTO5%, THYAO13%, ASTOR33%. The majority (Çoğunluk) are at the lower band (below20%) or close to it; this shows that prices have been dragged along the lower boundary of the trend channel and that a recovery without a channel break is difficult. The Pearson (r) coefficient measures the linear relationship between price and the regression trend; positive values indicate trend conformity, negative values divergence. YKBNK (0.38), VAKBN (0.61), GARAN (0.17), ISCTR (0.41), KRDMD (0.14), BIMAS (0.27), EREGL (0.50) are positive but weak/moderate; TAVHL (-0.12), SAHOL (-0.32), ASELS (-0.41), PGSUS (-0.85), MGROS (-0.90), AKBNK (-0.02), TRMET (-0.33), TOASO (-0.36), TTKOM (-0.40), GUBRF (-0.47), ENKAI (-0.57), SISE (-0.64), SASA (-0.73), AEFES (-0.75), TCELL (-0.75), FROTO (-0.76), THYAO (-0.88), ASTOR (-0.90) are negative. A negative Pearson shows that the price has moved away from the trend (price rising in a downtrend or falling in an uptrend); here, the strongly negative Pearson across almost all stocks with a "SELL (SAT)" signal confirms that the downtrend continues and the price is trapped at the lower channel bound.

Diverging Stocks

The YKBNK, GARAN, TAVHL trio has an intact technical structure with the EMA alignment (medium=BUY), WT (BUY), channel position (mid-upper band) and positive/neutral Pearson. SAHOL has a good channel position but a negative Pearson and a NEUTRAL oscillator; it should be watched closely. Despite its strong 60-day performance, TUPRS has a broken technical structure (channel7%, WT SELL, RSI 37); profit-taking pressure is present.

4. Oscillator and Momentum Readings

RSI (14) Assessment

Above 70 overbought, below 30 oversold. No stock with RSI above 70; the highest are GARAN 52.92, TAVHL 52.39, SAHOL 52.62, YKBNK 51.72 — all in neutral zone. 30-40 range: TOASO 29.26, ASTOR 28.94, FROTO 31.11, SASA 31.14, GUBRF 31.12, MGROS 30.41 — deep oversold. 40-50 range: AKBNK 43.76, VAKBN 44.53, EREGL 45.08, ASELS 46.58, KRDMD 43.09, PETKM 40.31, KCHOL 40.32, TCELL 39.95, BIMAS 39.86, EKGYO 43.58, TRMET 33.86, SISE 33.66, TRALT 32.94, AEFES 35.23, ENKAI 34.65, THYAO 36.0, PGSUS 37.21, TUPRS 37.34. These stocks are near oversold but not yet below 30; momentum is not completely exhausted but RSI needs to break 50 for a trend reversal.

MACD (12.26,9) Commentary

Positive MACD only in GARAN (0.7), TAVHL (2.06) and YKBNK (0.15) — these three stocks show that momentum is upward. SAHOL -0.63, ISCTR -0.03, VAKBN -0.16, KRDMD -0.71, BIMAS -8.44, TUPRS -7.44, PGSUS -4.95, THYAO -6.95, EREGL -0.34, AKBNK -0.81, EKGYO -0.21, KCHOL -2.77, PETKM -0.43, TCELL -1.1, TTKOM -0.99, AEFES -0.41, ENKAI -2.62, TRMET -4.36, SISE -1.16, TRALT -2.25, SASA -0.15, GUBRF -23.68, FROTO -2.64, MGROS -21.16, TOASO -11.86, ASTOR -27.4. The broad negative MACD spectrum shows that downward momentum dominates the market overall; especially in GUBRF, MGROS, ASTOR, TOASO, BIMAS, THYAO, TUPRS, PGSUS and TRMET the MACD is at deeply negative levels.

Stochastic%K (14.3,3)

Above 80 overbought, below 20 oversold. GARAN 81.81, YKBNK 81.4, SAHOL 85.27, TAVHL 79.39 — these four stocks are near the overbought zone; short-term pullback risk. Below 20: TOASO 5.99, ENKAI 10.3, TRMET 10.32, ASTOR 11.01, THYAO 16.26, PETKM 17.03, PGSUS 29.37, TUPRS 18.18, TCELL 16.55, TTKOM 13.05, AEFES 14.41, SISE 12.26, SASA 12.82, GUBRF 9.26, FROTO 10.45, MGROS 12.32, TRALT 15.49, BIMAS 27.21, KRDMD 35.34, KCHOL 33.15, EKGYO 30.82, EREGL 47.39, AKBNK 41.03, VAKBN 20.46. The majority are in deep oversold; from these levels a technical bounce (oversold bounce) may come but likely a counter-trend correction rather than a trend change.

CCI (20) and ADX (14)

Above CCI +100 is a strong rise, below -100 a strong decline. YKBNK 61, GARAN 79, TAVHL 90, SAHOL 91 — positive momentum. Negative between Aselsan (ASELS) and Türk Telekom (TTKOM); TTKOM -216, GUBRF -175, AEFES -187, SISE -181, TUPRS -162, KCHOL -162, TRALT -158, TOASO -156, THYAO -146, VAKBN -151, FROTO -144, TRMET -200, ENKAI -125, MGROS -124, SASA -139, ASTOR -133, PETKM -112, BIMAS -112, EKGYO -108, PGSUS -75, EREGL -82, AKBNK -83, KRDMD -93, TCELL -170. Above ADX 25 is a strong trend. In stocks with "STRONG SELL" ADX is generally between 25 and 44 (GUBRF 44.76, MGROS 44.08, THYAO 41.35, PGSUS 40.64, ENKAI 38.55, FROTO 38.16, TRALT 36.35, ASTOR 36.9, SISE 30.62, TUPRS 31.79, KCHOL 31.66, SASA 31.94, AKBNK 28.6, TOASO 28.88, BIMAS 23.18, TCELL 25.68) — confirmation of a strong downtrend. In the triple with "BUY" signals ADX is low: YKBNK 13.51, GARAN 16.05, TAVHL 12.33 — the trend is not yet in the strengthening phase, which also indicates that the breakout may be at an early stage.

5. Risk Map and Scenarios

Base Case (Base Scenario:55% Probability)

XU030 continues to move sideways on low volume in the 14.200 - 14.600 band. Banking (YKBNK, GARAN) and TAVHL stand out with selective buying; other heavyweight stocks (THYAO, TUPRS, BIMAS, ASELS, KCHOL, SAHOL) pull the index down. USD/TRY stays in the 49.50-49.80 band; Brent trades in the 108-112 USD range. The TCMB policy rate stays fixed at37% until year-end; positive real rates support foreign portfolio inflows, but geopolitical risk (Middle East, the US election process) keeps the risk premium high. The cash ratio in the portfolio should be increased and long positions protected with tight stops.

Upward Scenario (25% Probability)

If XU030 breaks the 14.600 resistance (above the previous close of 14.463.64) on volume, 14.900-15.100 can be targeted. Catalyst: the September inflation data (yearly29.73%) coming in below market expectations, TCMB delivering a "tightening is over" message at its November meeting, Brent pulling back below 105 USD and DXY falling below 101. In that case the banking index (XBANK) would outperform XU030; YKBNK 37.50, GARAN 135, TAVHL 285 levels could be tested. The portfolio beta could be increased.

Downside Scenario (20% Probability)

If XU030 breaks the 14.200 support (intraday low around ~14.350-14.400), the decline is likely to extend toward the 13.900-13.700 band. Triggers: Brent staying above 115 USD, a break of the 49,597 psychological resistance in USD/TRY, the US 10-year Treasury yield rising above4.5% (currently4.97%), and geopolitical tension turning into military conflict. In this scenario, stocks with a "STRONG SELL" signal (EREGL, SISE, SASA, GUBRF, FROTO, TOASO, ASTOR, TRMET, TTKOM, TCELL, AEFES, ENKAI, PETKM, KCHOL, EKGYO, BIMAS, MGROS, VAKBN, AKBNK, ISCTR, PGSUS, THYAO) may make new lows; short positions or hedges (put options, inverse ETFs) should be considered.

Split Strategy and Levels to Watch

• XU030 Intraday Support/Resistance: 14.350 (intraday low) / 14.200 (critical support) — 14.600 (immediate resistance) / 14.750 (strong resistance).

• USD/TRY: 49.50 (support) / 49.80-50.00 (resistance).

• Brent: 108 (support) / 112 (resistance).

• Portfolio Management: The current portfolio's%-11.88 loss is relatively good compared with the reference indices (XU030 -13.55%, XU100 -18.19%); however, the daily%-2.30 loss shows that risk management has weakened. Except for the three stocks with a "BUY" signal (YKBNK, GARAN, TAVHL), positions should not be increased; in positions with a "SELL" signal, partial selling on technical bounces should be used to generate cash. Stop-loss levels should be kept below the last low on the basis of the daily close (e.g. YKBNK 35.00, GARAN 128, TAVHL 265).

6. Recommended Stocks for the Day

The table below, technical scan (EMA alignment, Wave Trend, regression channel, Pearson) and TradingView oscillator recommendations (RSI, MACD, Stochastic, CCI, ADX)giving a "BUY" signal in both stocks. In the data, onlyYKBNK (Yapı Kredi) (company), GARAN (Garanti BBVA) (company), TAVHL (TAV Havalimanları) (company) is in place. The other stocks were not included in the table because their technical scan is "SELL/HOLD" or their oscillator reading is "SELL/STRONG SELL/NEUTRAL".