Deep Analysis

1. Market Summary and Overview

As of 28 Ekim 2026 Wednesday, 12:38, the BIST 30 (XU030) index is trading at 13.981.94, up 0.34% from the previous close; while the BIST 100 (XU100) stands at 11.181.92 with a 0.28% gain, USD/TRY is valued at 49.83 with a 0.10% appreciation. The XU030 dollar-based performance is calculated with a 0.23 positive spread by observing the exchange rate movement. During the day, Brent oil's 5.47% decline to 109.47 USD/barrel pressures energy-heavy indices, while gold prices rising to 4.074.40 USD per ounce and gram gold climbing to 6.521.13 TL keep inflation hedge demand alive. US 10-year treasury yields trading at 4.84% levels and DXY at 102.30 points indicate global risk appetite is in a fragile balance. In local macro data, September 2026 annual consumer inflation realized at 29.73%, policy rate held at 36.00% to maintain positive real interest; however TÜFE remains at 27.38% annually and industrial production's 1.86% annual contraction in August data signals continued demand-side weakness. Budget balance fell into a 532.2 billion TL deficit in September, current account posted a 4.05 billion USD surplus in August data providing relative relief in external balances. Although selling pressure is heavy across the market, indices managing limited gains suggests controlled selling in banking and holding stocks constituting the majority of weights is balanced by buying in select stocks.

2. Sector-Based Evaluation

Banking and Holdings

The banking sector (AKBNK, GARAN, ISCTR, VAKBN, YKBNK) stands out with "STRONG SELL" signals in technical scan data; all bank stocks are in sell position in long, medium and short-term EMA alignments, Wave Trend (WT) oscillator in sell zone and in lower quarters of regression channels (7%-19% range). Holdings (KCHOL, SAHOL) also have similar structure; although Koç Holding has WT "BUY AT DIP" warning, general trend is "SELL", Sabancı Holding is in "STRONG SELL" category. Sector's Pearson correlation coefficients (r) in banks show low positive (VAKBN +0.30) or near zero (GARAN -0.08), while in holdings negative values (SAHOL -0.52, KCHOL -0.20) confirm trend weakness. Postponement of rate cut expectations and loan growth remaining at 36.32% annually sustain pressure on net interest margins.

Energy, Petrochemicals and Automotive

Tüpraş (TUPRS) stands out within the sector with the only "NEUTRAL" general signal and "LONG=BUY" position; WT "BUY", channel position 17% (near lower band) and Pearson r +0.21 show slight positive tendency. Petkim (PETKM) "STRONG SELL", Enka (ENKAI) and Astor (ASTOR) with "SELL" signals, channel positions at 11%, 45%, 78% levels respectively; Astor's 78% proximity to upper band in channel carries technical pullback risk. In automotive, Tofaş (TOASO) and Ford Otosan (FROTO) are in "SELL" general signal yet both have WT "BUY AT DIP" warning; however TOASO's 60-day -15.1%, FROTO's -13.5% performance and Pearson coefficients (TOASO -0.49, FROTO -0.79) indicate deep trend weakness.

Defense, Aviation, Tourism and Others

Aselsan (ASELS) gives technical scan "SELL" (general) while WT "BUY" and in "WAIT" position in all three horizons; channel position at 72% leaning on upper band, Pearson r -0.70 price-channel incompatibility draws attention. Aviation and tourism (THYAO, PGSUS, TAVHL) all in "STRONG SELL" category; THYAO channel %-12 (below lower band), PGSUS 10%, TAVHL 33% levels. Metal and mining (EREGL, KRDMD, TRMET) and chemical/fertilizer (GUBRF, SASA, SISE) stocks also with "STRONG SELL" signals, RSI fallen to below 30 levels, CCI remaining in oversold zone with values below -150, yet trend direction remains downward. Retail (BIMAS, MGROS) and telecom (TCELL, TTKOM) share the same structure.

3. Technical Visual Analysis

EMA Arrangements and Wave Trend

According to scan data, 90% of BIST 30 stocks are in "SELL" or "WAIT" position in short, medium and long-term EMA alignments. Tüpraş (TUPRS) gives "BUY" signal in long-term EMA, becoming the rare stock preserving long-term structural strength within the index. Koç Holding (KCHOL), Tofaş (TOASO), Migros (MGROS) generated "BUY AT DIP" signal in Wave Trend oscillator; this indicates prices entered short-term oversold zone, a technical reaction attempt is likely. Aselsan (ASELS), Enka (ENKAI), Ford Otosan (FROTO), Astor (ASTOR) although appear to gain momentum with WT "BUY" signal, since EMA alignments remain in "WAIT" or "SELL" position, these buy signals point to technical correction probability rather than trend reversal.

Regression Channel Positions and Pearson Correlation

Percentage positions within regression channel (channel %) reveal price's relative position to trend. Aselsan at 72% in upper quarter of channel, Astor at 78% near upper band, Tofaş 18%, Petkim 11%, Tüpraş 17% in lower quarters. Stocks like Ereğli Demir Çelik (EREGL) %-14, THYAO %-12, TRMET %-8, GUBRF %-10 trading below channel lower band indicate how strongly the trend has been broken. Pearson correlation coefficients (r) measure relationship between price and regression trend; +0.21 positive value in Tüpraş shows price moves in harmony with trend, while values like -0.70 in Aselsan, -0.79 in Ford Otosan, -0.06 in Petkim show price deviates from or has weak relationship with trend. In banking, Vakıfbank (+0.30) and İş Bankası (+0.18) try to stay tied to trend with low positive correlation, while Sabancı (-0.52) and Akbank (-0.42) confirm trend break with negative correlation.

Diverging Stocks

Tüpraş carries the distinction of being the only stock separating in terms of both value and momentum with long-term EMA "BUY", WT "BUY", lower band of channel (17%) and positive Pearson. Aselsan experiences conflict (divergence) between oscillator-based "BUY" signal (TradingView recommendation BUY, 13 buyers / 6 sellers) and WT "BUY" with technical scan "SELL" signal; this indicates the stock is at a decision point, direction choice will be confirmed in upcoming sessions by break of channel upper band (72% -> 90%) or EMA alignment turning to "WAIT".

4. Oscillator and Momentum Readings

RSI, MACD and Stochastic

According to TradingView oscillator data, only Aselsan (RSI 52.36, StochK 60.93, CCI +33.47) receives "BUY" recommendation (13/6/9); its position above RSI 50 level and positive CCI indicate momentum turning slightly positive. All other stocks receive "SELL" or "STRONG SELL" recommendation. Migros (RSI 27.13), Gübre Fabrikaları (RSI 23.43), Sasa (RSI 24.46), THYAO (RSI 28.19), Pegasus (RSI 26.04) falling below RSI 30 level entered classic oversold zone; however all MACD values being negative (Migros -26.35, GUBRF -39.83, THYAO -9.93) and Stochastic K values remaining in 10-20 band indicate oversold condition insufficient to change price direction, signaling trend continuation. Banking stocks (AKBNK RSI 35.95, GARAN RSI 43.23, YKBNK RSI 43.57) trading in RSI 40-45 band are in neither oversold nor strong momentum zone; while MACDs trade horizontally below zero line (AKBNK -1.54, GARAN -0.60), ADX values in 19-35 range show trend strength at moderate level.

CCI and ADX Warnings

While CCI (Commodity Channel Index) 20-period values measure trend's extreme ends; Eregli (-178.48), TAVHL (-155.86), Petkim (-156.41), EKGYO (-147.34), Sasa (-140.57), TRALT (-139.31) falling below -150 level approach historical oversold levels. Reversals from these levels may bring technical reaction; however ADX (Average Directional Index) values being at low levels like 20.31 in Eregli, 16.97 in Petkim, 15.73 in TAVHL suggests trend entered a non-directional, sideways/choppy structure. Conversely, Migros (ADX 50.25), Gübre Fabrikaları (ADX 53.52), THYAO (ADX 48.62), Pegasus (ADX 46.07), TRALT (ADX 43.95) are above ADX 40 level while RSI below 30; this combination confirms "oversold within strong downtrend" scenario, emphasizing bottom-fishing attempts are high risk.

5. Risk Map and Scenarios

Upside Scenario (Base Scenario: 55% Probability)

Taking the XU030 index at 13,981.94 as base, the 14,100-14,200 band (psychological resistance, regression channel middle-upper quarter) can be targeted. For this scenario to materialize: USD/TRY must stay in the 49.50-49.80 range, Brent crude must reclaim above 110 USD/barrel, the banking index (XBANK) must hold at supports 12.29 (İş Bankası) and 63.15 (Akbank) and its EMA20s (short-term) must cross upward. Aselsan's breaking of 365-370 resistance with volume and moving to channel upper (90%+), and Tüpraş's establishing permanence in the 370-375 band could pull the index higher. On the macro front, holding the TCMB policy rate at 36.00% and preserving positive real rates could support foreign portfolio inflows (position protection per Deutsche Bank data).

Downside Scenario (Alternative Scenario: 45% Probability)

If XU030 pulls back to the 13,800-13,700 support zone (previous close 13,934.73 and estimated 20-day EMA level), the 13,500 psychological support can be tested. Triggers: USD/TRY breaking 50.00 resistance and opening to 50.50, Brent slipping below 105 USD, US 10-year yield rising above 4.90% (accompanied by VIX rising from 17.43 to above 20). In banking shares, closes below VAKBN 30.00, GARAN 124.00, AKBNK 61.00 could drag the sector index down 5-7 basis points. In holdings, closes below SAHOL 80.00, KCHOL 195.00 will push the index weight lower. In this scenario, if Aselsan falls below 345.00, WT "BUY" signal becomes invalid; if Tüpraş drops below 340.00, long-term EMA "BUY" signal breaks down.

Split Strategy and Levels to Watch

With market direction uncertainty high (VIX 17.43, DXY 102.30), position sizes should be kept at 50-70% levels according to risk tolerance, cash ratio prudently maintained at 20-30% levels. For long positions: Aselsan 345.00, Tüpraş 340.00 should be monitored as mental stop levels; for short positions, reaction rallies in banking and holding shares (AKBNK 65.00, GARAN 128.00, SAHOL 85.00) can be considered. Intraday volume analysis (not in dataset, qualitative expression) if low, breakouts may be traps; volume-backed breakouts count as directional confirmation.

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