1. Market Summary and Overview
29 Ekim 2026 Perşembe, at 12:24 BIST 30 (XU030) last close 13,960.89 points, the previous close 13,934.73 points and daily 0.19% while showing an increase, BIST 100 (XU100) 11,165.44 with points 0.13% recorded an increase; USD/TRY 49.83 at the level 0.07% an increase occurred and XU030 on a dollar basis 0.12% showed performance. The market is trading within a slight upward trend; trading volume did not show a significant increase compared to the previous day. Falling Brent oil prices (‑3.16%) and a slightly recovering DXY index (‑0.19%) may have modestly revived risk appetite, yet the signals that the global risk environment deteriorates entering the new year, as highlighted in the "Fitch" report, cannot still be ignored. In Turkey, inflation hovering at an annual 29.73%, the policy rate remaining fixed at 36.0%, and foreign exchange reserves retreating to 62.148 billion $, compel local investors to act cautiously against currency risk.
2. Sector-Based Evaluation
Technical scan signals reveal the general direction of sectors from a perspective like a "heat map". Sell (SAT) signal mainly Energy & Petrochemicals, Banking, Telecom, Automotive, Retail, Metal & Mining, Glass & Ceramics, Aviation & Transportation andReal Estate are concentrated in their sectors. In these sectors, the short‑term trend is seen to be downward, with prices approaching the lower bound of regression channels and under pressure.
On the other hand AL (AL) signal only Defense (Aselsan – ASELS) andEnergy & Petrochemicals (Enka İnşaat – ENKAI, Astor Enerji – ASTOR) has been reflected in a limited number of stocks such as. This situation shows that defense and some energy sub‑segments carry a stronger momentum technically. Strong AL signal is only Aselsan (company) for both technical and oscillator‑based confirmation; this indicates that the defense sector has found short‑term support due to risk aversion and government spending.
3. Technical Visual Analysis
EMA Arrangements and Wave Trend
In the technical screening table WT (Wave Trend) its signals stand out as an indicator measuring the short‑ and medium‑term movements of prices. WT=BUY while the signal is seen in stocks such as ENKAI, ASTOR and ASELS, WT=SELL prevails for most stocks. Wave Trend's "AL" direction indicates that prices are exiting a low volatility band and transitioning to an uptrend; this is supported especially by high channel widths such as 46%‑78% in ENKAI and ASTOR.
Regression Channel and Pearson r
The regression channel % value reflects how much prices deviate within the average trend. Pearson r values are negative (‑0.20 – ‑0.95) for most stocks, indicating that prices tend to deviate from the average trend, i.e., the sustainability of the current move is low. The highest negative correlation ASTOR (%-0.95) andENKAI (%-0.65) is observed for; these stocks, although they experience a large pullback within the channel, a potential transformation is expected with Wave Trend's "BUY" signal.
Diverging Stocks
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ASELS (Aselsan): WT=BUY, Pearson r=-0.70, channel 73% – strong upward signal in high volatility.
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ENKAI (Enka İnşaat): WT=BUY, channel 46%, Pearson r=-0.65 – low correlation but wide channel, potential recovery.
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ASTOR (Astor Enerji): WT=BUY, channel 78%, Pearson r=-0.95 – highest negative correlation, but channel width technically offers a "buy" opportunity.
4. Oscillator and Momentum Readings
Oscillator data clarifies the overbought‑oversold zones of prices and the direction of momentum.
| Stock | RSI | MACD | Stoch K | CCI20 | ADX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASELS | 52.65 | ‑6.81 | 61.54 | 35.05 | 32.72 |
| ENKAI | 46.16 | ‑2.36 | 45.29 | ‑24.77 | 39.30 |
| ASTOR | 42.18 | ‑23.25 | 38.59 | ‑4.24 | 34.96 |
| TUPRS | 39.03 | ‑8.45 | 25.44 | ‑102.96 | 34.35 |
| TOASO | 36.51 | ‑12.92 | 23.10 | ‑80.92 | 34.52 |
| FROTO | 42.65 | ‑2.34 | 51.67 | ‑38.82 | 38.81 |
| MGROS | 26.02 | ‑26.49 | 5.69 | ‑110.37 | 50.25 |
| GUBRF | 23.34 | ‑39.89 | 5.45 | ‑150.49 | 53.52 |
| SASA | 24.12 | ‑0.17 | 8.84 | ‑142.02 | 38.23 |
RSI values in the 50%‑55% range ASELS, carries a medium‑level momentum; since it has not yet reached the overbought zone, the sustainability of the rise is high. ENKAI andASTOR is in the 40%‑45% range, showing a slight downtrend, but MACD's negative but low values (‑2.36 ve ‑23.25) indicate that it is not an oversold signal, only that they are in a correction process.
Stochastic K values ASELS for 61.5% (just below the upper limit) and FROTO for 51.7% (neutral) while, MGROS andGUBRF such as retail and chemical stocks, the 5%‑6% levels point to the oversold zone. This situation, together with low liquidity and high volatility, may create a short‑term recovery opportunity.
CCI20 values TUPRS andMGROS in stocks such as, below -100, i.e., the oversold zone. ADX is in the 30‑40 range, showing that the trend is still clear; especially ENKAI ( ADX 39.3) and ASTOR ( ADX 34.96) confirms that trend strength is medium‑high.
5. Risk Map and Scenarios
Upside Scenario
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Key trigger: ASELS's RSI staying at the 52.65 level, MACD being negative but moving in a narrow range, and ADX at 32.72 support the continuation of the uptrend. If USD/TRY % maintains the 0.07 increase and the exchange rate exceeds the 50.00 TL level, the increase in the state budget for defense expenditures could provide additional support to ASELS.
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Support levels: Technical support for ASELS can be assessed around 350 TL (short‑term support) and 340 TL (lower bound of the regression channel). As long as these levels are not broken, the uptrend is assumed to continue.
Downside Scenario
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Key trigger: If USD/TRY falls below 49.50 TL and Euro/TRY shows a similar decline, external borrowing costs rise; this situation could pull ASELS's price down by increasing cost pressure in the defense sector.
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Resistance levels: If the break of 360 TL (short‑term resistance) and 370 TL (long‑term resistance) does not occur, the price's daily increase of 0.19% may remain limited and could enter a correction process.
Split Strategies
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Short term (1‑3 days): RSI 50%‑%Aselsan (ASELS) gives a "buy" signal; however, MACD being negative indicates that the position's stop-loss stop‑loss level should not fall below 340 TL.
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Medium term (1‑2 weeks): Stocks with ADX > 30 (ENKAI, ASTOR) show that the trend is still strong; a "wait" signal for these stocks, but if the price reaches the upper channel boundary (ENKAI 46%, ASTOR 78%), the "buy" direction strengthens.
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Long term (1‑1.5 months): Stocks with Pearson r < ‑0.70 (ASTOR, ENKAI) experience a large deviation within the regression channel, thus they carry long‑term recovery potential; however, in this process exchange rate andglobal energy prices ( Brent ‑3.16%) will be decisive.
Levels to watch
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USD/TRY: 49.70 TL (support) – 50.20 TL (resistance)
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Euro/TRY: 55.55 TL (support) – 55.80 TL (resistance)
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BIST 30: 13,950.00 (short‑term support) – 13,980.00 (short‑term resistance)
When these levels are broken, the invalidation conditions of the relevant scenarios take effect.
6. Recommended Stocks for the Day
| Stock | Signal | Base Scenario | Optimistic Scenario | Invalidation Condition | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASELS (Aselsan) | BUY | RSI 52.65%, MACD ‑6.81, Stoch K 61.54%, ADX 32.72; WT=AL, Pearson r ‑0.70, channel 73%. Daily 5.21% increase and technical‑oscillator harmony show that the short‑term rise continues. | The continuation of USD/TRY's 36% increase and the policy rate staying fixed at 36.0% supports ASELS's 10‑12% additional profit potential by providing extra fund flow to defense expenditures. | USD/TRY falling below 49.833 TL, ADX dropping below 30, or RSI rising above 70 and entering the overbought zone. | Technical scan "WT=AL" and oscillator "oneri=AL" signals together; RSI at mid level, MACD negative but narrow, ADX maintains trend strength. Although channel width (73%) increases volatility, if the price remains in the 350‑360 TL range, continuation of the rise is likely. |
Other stocks in the table are not included in the list because they did not generate a "BUY" signal in terms of technical‑oscillator harmony.
Analyst Note: The report has been prepared based solely on the given technical scan, oscillator, and macro data. Since market conditions can change rapidly, the current news flow and liquidity situation should be reviewed again before making investment decisions. In particular, exchange rate movements and global risk perception (Fitch report) increase the volatility of all stocks on the BIST 30. In this context,Aselsan (company) For stocks outside, "sell" signals should still be considered valid, and portfolio weights should be rebalanced within the risk management framework.