Daily Market Report

1. Executive Summary and Market Overview

The day should be considered a turning point where the BIST 30 index is "catching its breath" and consolidating at the critical resistance level of 17,011. The index is not giving a clear trend reversal signal for a sustained recovery above this area, and as long as it remains below this level, there is a risk of continued downward pressure. This situation is causing the market to adopt a cautious and selective stance. Retail and energy sector stocks, previously highlighted as "safe havens" in previous analyses, continue to be the main factors supporting portfolio performance. Particularly, KCHOL and BIMAS are showing positive divergence against the index, acting as anchors in our portfolio. However, the persistence of geopolitical risks (Iran-Middle East tensions) and fluctuations in energy prices (natural gas prices above 71 €/MWh) continue to be a pressure factor, especially on energy-intensive and geopolitically vulnerable sectors. Uncertainty regarding the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) September interest rate decision and global recession concerns are reducing risk appetite and causing capital to flow into safer assets. In this environment, the fundamental perspective of fund management is to prioritize risk protection with a high cash ratio while continuing to create controlled positions in selected stocks with strong technical and fundamental strength. The market must be prepared for both the Fed's interest rate decision and the volatility created by geopolitical risks.

2. News and Macroeconomic Assessment

The macroeconomic agenda is shaped around two fundamental factors determining the pressure on BIST 30 companies: global monetary policy and geopolitical risks. Expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve's September meeting and interest rate decision directly affect global liquidity conditions and act as the main catalyst determining risk appetite for emerging markets. Although markets are moving with expectations of an interest rate cut, an unexpected increase in inflation data could disrupt this scenario. This situation could weaken the expectation of "easing of financial conditions" for Turkish markets and create pressure on the exchange rate. In particular, inflation expectations remaining at the 28.4% level are negatively affecting consumer spending and companies' cost structures. Domestically, steps such as the additional 1.1 billion dollars provided to Halkbank support the banking sector, but the impact of these supports on long-term profitability remains limited. Social and economic indicators such as a decrease in employment are increasing concerns that the recovery in domestic demand may be slow. In the geopolitical arena, developments related to Iran and "economic war" rhetoric are creating direct pressure on energy and logistics costs. Natural gas prices remaining above 71 euros are seriously threatening the margins of energy-intensive industrial companies such as EREGL, TUPRS, and TOASO. Additionally, Germany's preparation of an economic measures package towards China and the slowdown in global demand emerge as a risk factor for export-oriented companies. When these flows are evaluated together, it can be said that an environment where both cost pressures and demand uncertainty continue for BIST 30 companies. Investor psychology remains fragile due to this dual risk structure.

3rd Technical Evaluation (Stock-based)

The uncertainty in the general direction of the BIST 30 index is causing significant divergences in stock-specific technical analysis. The technical anatomy of leading stocks offers a critical roadmap for portfolio selection.

Stocks with the Most Divergence and Strong Buy Signals:

• TUPRS (Energy & Petrochemicals): The stock is trading at 415.75 TL with a daily +0.54% increase. Its 60-day return is 83.2%, attracting attention. TUPRS, which gives a "BUY" signal in all time periods (short, medium, and long term), also has Wilder Trend (WT) indicator in "BUY" position. It shows an incredible positive correlation with the index with Pearson correlation coefficient (r=0.97) and maintains its upward potential with a 31% position within the channel. TradingView oscillators also support this view; RSI 70.55 (overbought zone), MACD upward crossover, and StochK 86.43 indicate strong buying momentum. The overall signal is evaluated as "STRONG BUY".

• KCHOL (Holding): KCHOL, trading horizontally at 225.5 TL, shows a stable performance with a 60-day return of +15.5%. The stock, which gives a "BUY" signal in all time periods, also has WT indicator in "BUY" position. It shows strong positive divergence from the index with Pearson correlation (r=0.89) and maintains its medium-term upward trend with a 72% position within the channel. RSI 67.53, upward momentum in MACD, and StochK 69.55 oscillator confirm that buying pressure continues. The overall signal has been determined as "STRONG BUY".

• BIMAS (Retail): Although it experienced a daily -1.15% decline at 429.75 TL level, it remains resistant to the index with a 60-day return of +12.1%. BIMAS, which gives a "BUY" signal in all time periods, also has WT indicator in "BUY" position. It shows strong positive divergence from the index with Pearson correlation (r=0.89) and is at a 72% position within the channel. RSI 64.56, upward momentum in MACD, and StochK 89.55 oscillator indicate that buying pressure is still valid. The overall signal is evaluated as "STRONG BUY".

Stocks Testing Resistance and Support Levels:

• PETKM (Energy & Petrochemicals): PETKM, which fell -4.13% daily at 23.66 TL level, shows a strong performance with a 60-day return of +17.6%. Although it gives a "BUY" signal in short, medium, and long term, the WT indicator warns "SELL AT TOP". Pearson correlation (r=0.46) has remained weak. Although there is upward momentum in MACD with RSI 61.75, the sharp daily decline strengthens the expectation of a technical correction. The overall signal is evaluated as "NEUTRAL" and instead of making new purchases for this stock, it is recommended to follow stop-loss in existing positions.

• VAKBN (Banking): VAKBN, which experienced a sharp -6.14% daily decline at 35.74 TL level, has remained weak with a 60-day return of +2.1%. Although it gives a "WAIT" signal in the short term, it gives "BUY" signal in medium and long term. The WT indicator is in "BUY" position. However, Pearson correlation (r=0.26) is extremely weak, and the stock follows an independent path from the index. The sharp daily decline could be a sign of a technical breakdown. Although the overall signal is "BUY", a cautious approach is required for this stock after this decline.

Stocks Giving Strong Sell Signals:

• THYAO (Aviation & Transportation): THYAO, which fell -1.58% daily at 295.5 TL level, remains below the index with a 60-day return of -9.6%. The stock, which gives "SELL" signal in short and medium term, also has WT indicator in "SELL" position. It shows strong negative divergence from the index with Pearson correlation (r=-0.87). RSI 41.38, downward momentum in MACD, and StochK 39.07 oscillator clearly show that selling pressure continues. The overall signal has been determined as "STRONG SELL" and this stock should be completely avoided from the portfolio.

• ASELS (Defense): ASELS, experiencing a sharp daily decline of -5.40 at the 372.5 TL level, shows weak performance with a 60-day return of -7.5. Despite giving a "WAIT" signal in all time periods, the WT indicator is in a "SELL" position. The Pearson correlation (r=0.42) has remained weak. TradingView oscillators show RSI at 42.88, and despite MACD being upward, CCI20 at -150.54 indicates significant weakness. The overall signal is evaluated as "STRONG SELL".

4. Company and Financial Assessment

Based on fundamental data, the financial health and potential of companies should be evaluated in detail through their balance sheet structures and ratios. This analysis is critically important to support or weaken technical signals with a fundamental foundation.

Highlighted Positive Fundamental Data:

• KCHOL and SAHOL (Holdings): KCHOL's massive current assets of 3,615.15 billion TL and SAHOL's 2,790.07 billion TL demonstrate these companies' market leadership and operational depth. This size provides liquidity while serving as a buffer against macroeconomic shocks through assets in various sectors such as retail and financial services. KCHOL's strong performance in technical analysis is supported by this fundamental resilience.

• TUPRS (Energy & Petrochemicals): TUPRS's current assets of 439.48 billion TL confirm its position as a major player in the sector. Global price increases in petroleum and petrochemical products have a positive impact on the company's revenue and profitability. Particularly TUPRS with a 60-day return of 83.2%, it shows a profile that directly benefits from energy price increases. This forms the fundamental basis behind the "STRONG BUY" signal in technical analysis.

Fundamental Weaknesses and Risks:

• Banking Sector (GARAN, AKBNK, YKBNK, VAKBN): Although the current assets of these banks (GARAN 512.19 billion TL, AKBNK 72.55 TL, YKBNK 36.64 TL, VAKBN 35.74 TL) appear lower compared to the sector, this situation does not fully reflect their market value. The fundamental risk of the banking sector is the pressure on interest margins and increased credit risk in a high inflation environment. Particularly VAKBN's 6.14% decline in the last day is an indication that these fundamental concerns are reflected in market prices. In technical analysis, the low or negative Pearson correlation coefficients of these stocks can be considered as a reflection of their fundamental weaknesses.

• Energy-Intensive Industry (EREGL, SISE, TOASO): Companies such as EREGL (38.86 TL), SISE (43.52 TL) and TOASO (284.25 TL) have current assets (EREGL 151.30 billion TL, SISE 152.29 billion TL, TOASO 24.88 billion TL) that directly impact their operational costs. The sustained level of natural gas prices above 71 €/MWh increases these companies' energy costs, pressuring their profit margins. This fundamental weakness is the main reason why technical analysis gives "NEUTRAL" or "SELL" signals for these stocks.

• Aviation and Transportation (THYAO, TAVHL, PGSUS): Companies such as THYAO (512.19 billion TL), TAVHL (268.50 TL) and PGSUS (156.60 TL) belong to the most vulnerable sectors to geopolitical risks and demand conditions. THYAO's inability to maintain performance due to geopolitical tensions and high energy costs is in complete alignment with the "STRONG SELL" signal in technical analysis.

5. Risk Management and Strategy

Current market conditions are placing risk management at the center of portfolio management. Short-term possible scenarios should be addressed with predetermined shields.

Short-Term Downside Scenarios and Protection Shields:

1. Scenario: The Fed adopting a more hawkish stance than expected at its September meeting, signaling a rate hike.

   • "Impact:" Sudden contraction of global liquidity, collapse in risk appetite, and capital flow to safe havens (US Treasuries, gold).

   • "Reflection:" The BIST 30 index testing the 17,011 support level is putting pressure on the banking and stock markets.

   • Protection Shield: Maintaining a high cash ratio in the portfolio (35-40%). Strict adherence to stop-loss levels (395 TL for TUPRS, 210 TL for KCHOL, 415 TL for BIMAS). Complete avoidance of leverage.

2. Scenario: Escalation of Iran-Middle East tension and energy prices (especially natural gas) rising above 80 €/MWh.

   • "Impact:" Explosion of energy costs, slowdown in industrial production, and further increase in inflation.

   • "Reflection:" Sharp selling pressure on energy-intensive stocks like EREGL, SISE, TOASO. TÜFE data exceeding expectations and CB continuing its tight monetary policy.

   • Protection Shield: Complete avoidance of energy-intensive stocks. Focus on inflation-resistant retail (BIMAS, KCHOL) and basic metal (TUPRS) stocks in the portfolio.

3. Scenario: Breakdown of critical support levels (Index 17,011, THYAO 290 TL, EREGL 37 TL).

   • "Impact:" Technically triggered stop-loss orders coming in and the market being dragged further down through a domino effect.

   • "Reflection:" Widespread portfolio value loss.

   • Protection Shield: Tracking of pre-determined and technically supported stop-loss levels for each stock with automated orders. Closing of positions when these levels are broken.

Short-term Upward Scenarios and Opportunities:

1. Scenario: Fed cutting interest rates or using a "dovish" tone.

   • "Impact:" "Global risk appetite increasing, capital inflow to emerging markets."

   • "Reflection:" The BIST 30 index breaking through the 17,011 resistance and rising to the 17,011 band.

   • Strategy: "High cash ratio offers an opportunity to participate in this upward wave. With stop-loss protection, position increases can be made in technically strong stocks like TUPRS and KCHOL."

2. "Scenario: Sudden easing in geopolitical tensions and decline in energy prices."

   • "Impact:" "Reduced cost pressure and increased corporate profit expectations."

   • "Reflection:" "Recovery in energy and industrial stocks."

   • Strategy: "This scenario offers an opportunity for profit-taking in already held stocks like TUPRS in the portfolio, while allowing for a cautious re-evaluation of other weakened industrial stocks (SISE, TOASO)."

Strategic Approach:
In the current environment, the correct strategy is to adopt a "cautious stance, high liquidity, and selective buying" approach. It is essential not to panic sell, but at the same time to limit new purchases to expectations of a clear trend reversal signal. Risk management should be ensured not only through stop-loss levels but also through sectoral distribution and cash ratio management.

6. Recommended Model Portfolio

The following model portfolio, based on the technical and fundamental analyses above, is weighted according to signal strength, Pearson correlation, and channel position. The portfolio aims to preserve capital in the current uncertainty environment while targeting limited upside potential.