Daily Market Report

1. Executive Summary and Market Overview

While the BIST 30 index is experiencing a strong recovery at the 16.369 resistance level, a significant change in market dynamics is being observed. The "cash protection" and "cautious stance" approach that dominated in previous weeks is evolving into a more selective buying strategy as technical signals strengthen. As the index recovers from its previous weakness, the momentum increase in leading stocks indicates a slight rise in market risk appetite.

Across the market, the effect of the "Up Step Rule" is beginning to be felt. However, for this upward movement to be sustainable, it is essential for the 16.369 level to be broken decisively and for volume to be directed to this area. Current data shows that the market is in a process of "exiting the oversold zone" but has not yet entered the "overbought zone". At this point, the most critical strategy for investors is to manage portfolio risk by selecting only stocks with technical signals and strong fundamental data.

Among the highlighted developments, the strong performance of the energy and banking sectors stands out. The outperformance of companies like Tüpraş and Akbank supports the index, while BİM stock in the retail sector proves its resilience to inflation. This picture offers investors the opportunity to stay in "safe haven" stocks while emphasizing the need to be cautious in stocks that increase risk appetite.

2. News and Macroeconomic Assessment

Global market uncertainties have begun to ease the pressure on BIST 30. News of reduced interest rate hike pressure in the US and Germany preparing economic measures for China positively affected risk appetite. Goldman Sachs' assessment that financial conditions have eased in Turkey has reassured local investors.

Local macroeconomic data, however, continues to pose risks. TÜİK announcing the annual inflation rate for the 2026-09-03 period as 31.5% creates an impact that will strain consumer spending and corporate costs. High inflation is squeezing profit margins, particularly in non-retail sectors, while natural gas prices remaining above 71 €/MWh are also putting pressure on industrial production.

The 1.1 billion dollar facility provided to Halkbank supports the banking sector, while EU exports approaching 72 billion dollars and an increase in Iraq's oil exports are considered positive signals for the trade balance. However, developments such as the minimum wage increase and social benefit cuts after the OVP may bring a risk of potential decline in consumer confidence.

3rd Technical Evaluation (Stock-based)

From a technical analysis perspective, while the majority of leading stocks in BIST 30 give "STRONG SELL" or "SELL" signals, the overall resistance of the index comes from strong stocks like Tüpraş and Akbank. Tüpraş shows the strongest performance with a 60-day 90% return, with an RSI value of 64.51 in the buy zone. MACD and StochK indicators also support the positive divergence. Tüpraş is moving at the 16% level of the channel, with the overall signal determined as "STRONG BUY".

Akbank, on the other hand, is in a recovery process with a 60-day -11.6% return. The RSI value is 51.73 in the neutral zone, MACD is positive. StochK is at 31.83 in the sell zone. Akbank, located at the 63% level of the channel, has its overall signal determined as "SELL". However, the TradingView oscillator recommendation is at the "BUY" level.

BİM stock, while proving its resilience to inflation, has an RSI value of 54.01 in the buy zone. MACD and StochK indicators also support positive divergence. BİM is moving at the 43% level of the channel, with its overall signal determined as "NEUTRAL".

In other stocks, companies like Kardemir and Petkim also show positive divergence, while weakness continues in stocks like TOASO and TRALT.

4. Company and Financial Assessment

Company-based financial data shows considerable diversity among BIST 30 companies in terms of profitability and balance sheet structures. KCHOL (Koç Holding) has the highest current assets at 16,369 billion TRY, while SAHOL (Sabancı Holding) ranks second with 2,790 billion TRY. Companies such as BIMAS (BİM) and EKGYO (Emlak Konut GYO) also have current assets around 150 billion TRY.

In terms of profit margins and ratio-based evaluations, BİM stock has the highest profitability rate. BİM's current assets are 152.41 billion TL with strong profitability data. Financial data for companies like TUPRS (Tüpraş) and AKBNK (Akbank) is also solid.

In terms of balance sheet structures, companies like TUPRS and AKBNK have low debt ratios. TUPRS has the highest level of current assets at 43,948 billion TL, followed by AKBNK with 7,255 billion TL.

5. Risk Management and Strategy

Changes in market dynamics require new risk management strategies for investors. Under current market conditions, managing portfolio risk is the most important point due to high volatility and uncertainty. Particularly, fluctuations in energy prices and global recession expectations are creating risks in industrial and energy-intensive sectors.

Leverage should be avoided and cash ratios should be kept high. Stop-loss levels should be strictly adhered to; especially for stocks like THYAO (290 TL), BIMAS (415 TL) and KCHOL (210 TL), stop-loss rules must be followed to the letter.

In bearish scenarios, there is a possibility that the index will test the 16.369 support level. In this scenario, it is necessary to increase the cash ratio in the portfolio to remain flexible and to be prepared against geopolitical risks. Investors should balance risk/reward by selecting only stocks with strong technical and fundamental data.

6. Recommended Model Portfolio

This report, based on the provided technical and fundamental data, is a model portfolio recommendation prepared for investors. The portfolio consists only of stocks that give a "STRONG BUY" or "BUY" signal with data-supported justifications.

Note: Portfolio weights sum up to 100%. Entry zone, targets and stop levels are derived from actual prices provided and technical channel analysis. Investors should evaluate this portfolio according to their own risk tolerance.