Daily Market Report

1. Executive Summary and Market Overview

Today's market dynamics are forcing the BIST 30 index to consolidate intensely at the 16.391 resistance level with a risk of an "upward step". According to our past analysis, breaking this level would signal an upward trend reversal, while failure to break it would highlight the risk of a pullback to the 16.391 support level. Today's market chart creates a critical "conflict zone" for these scenarios to become clear.

The macroeconomic base continues to dampen risk appetite. With the annual inflation rate at 31.5%, Fed interest rate decisions and global geopolitical tensions (particularly Germany-China trade and AI discussions) are keeping investors cautious. However, in the local market, news flow indicating "easing financial conditions" and positive foreign trade balance (exports to the EU exceeding 72 billion dollars, Iraqi oil) has the potential to protect the index from a sharp downward correction.

From a technical analysis perspective, although "STRONG SELL" and "SELL" signals dominate the index, portfolio protection and selective buying strategies should be adopted. Particularly, "STRONG BUY" signals in the energy and retail sectors stand out as rare points of positive divergence despite the market's generally cautious sentiment. From a fund management perspective; capital protection should be prioritized, while exits from risky sectors (steel, aviation, banking) should continue, and weight should be given to inflation-resistant and dividend-focused stocks.

2. News and Macroeconomic Assessment

The fundamental macroeconomic and news flow shaping market dynamics directly impact risk management strategies.

• Global Geopolitical and Interest Rate Pressure: Germany's economic measures against China and tensions in AI discussions continue to disrupt global trade flows and risk appetite. Fed interest rate pressure on precious metals increases interest in safe havens like gold, which could negatively impact foreign capital flows to BIST 30. The Fed's September interest rate decision remains the most critical agenda item determining global liquidity.

• Local Macroeconomic Data: With the annual inflation rate at 31.5%, it continues to put pressure on consumer spending and corporate costs. This situation poses a risk of squeezing profit margins, especially in energy-intensive industries and construction, while potentially creating a "pricing power" advantage in the retail sector.

• Financial Conditions and Foreign Trade: Goldman Sachs' assessment that "financial conditions have eased in Turkey" could soften interest rate expectations in the local market; while the $1.1 billion source provided to Halkbank and EU exports exceeding $72 billion are evaluated as positive news that reduces current account deficit risk. The increase in Iraqi oil exports, on the other hand, supports the external balance.

• Sectoral News Flow: New collaborations in the real estate sector and public investments to be allocated to technology carry long-term positive divergence potential. However, Volkswagen's car recall operation and Jaguar Land Rover's layoffs reflect global demand uncertainty in the automotive sector.

3rd Technical Evaluation (Stock-based)

Based on technical analysis data, the most divergent and critical stocks for investment decisions in BIST 30 are detailed below.

Most Divergent (Strong Divergence):

• TUPRS (Tüpraş) (company): Last price 414.75 TL. With a 60-day return of 89.2%, it is the strongest performing stock in the market. RSI (64.64) and MACD (16.86) give a "STRONG BUY" signal with positive values. Being 16% above the channel and high Pearson correlation (0.97) confirms a strong uptrend.

• BIMAS (BIM): Last price 433.0 TL. Known for its inflation resistance, the retail giant is in a strong position with a 60-day return of 31.5. RSI (61.4) and MACD (6.69) are positive. Being at 72% of the channel and high r (0.87) is evaluated as a buying opportunity.

Balance and Waiting Zone:

• KCHOL — Koç Holding: Last price 222.3 TL. In a strong uptrend with a 60-day return of 12.2. However, RSI (56.34) and MACD (2.83) values give a "NEUTRAL" signal. Being at 45% of the channel indicates a waiting structure for new purchases.

• TOASO (Tofaş) (company): Last price 290.0 TL. Despite showing a 10.8% decline, technical signals point to "BUY" level. RSI (55.9) and MACD (2.93) are positive. Being at 86% of the channel shows it has recovery potential technically.

Things to Note (Weak Divergence):

• GUBRF (Fertilizer Factories): Last price 443.5 TL. With a 7.6% decline, it gives a "STRONG SELL" signal. RSI (43.91) and MACD (-3.3) are negative. Being only at 21% of the channel and low r (0.51) indicates a weak structure.

• DSTKF (Destek Finans Factoring): Last price 1786.0 TL. With a 48.5% decline, the worst performing stock. RSI (35.03) and MACD (-5.56) are at very low levels. It should be removed from the portfolio with a "STRONG SELL" signal.

4. Company and Financial Assessment

In light of fundamental data, the financial strength of the prominent companies in portfolio selection has been examined.

• TUPRS (Tüpraş) (company): Current Assets at 439.48 billion TL level. As the leader of the petrochemical sector, the company has high potential to benefit from energy price fluctuations. High return performance can be explained by growth or profit margin expansion above market expectations.

• BIMAS (BIM): Current Assets at 152.41 billion TL. The strongest player in the inflation-resistant retail sector. Profitability ratios and efficiency of current assets justify its positioning as a safe haven in the portfolio.

• KCHOL — Koç Holding: Current Assets at 3615.15 billion TL, the largest holding. Its diversified portfolio and strong balance sheet offer a resilient structure against macroeconomic pressures. However, the technical indicators being "NEUTRAL" increases the risk of new purchases at current price levels.

• SAHOL — Sabancı Holding: Current Assets at 2790.07 billion TL. Although there is a risk of being affected by sectoral fluctuations due to its holding structure, the financial base is solid. However, since technical indicators give a "STRONG SELL" signal, financial strength is not sufficient for new purchases.

5. Risk Management and Strategy

The risks and strategic approach that need to be prioritized in market conditions are as follows:

• Index Resistance and Downside Risk: The BIST 30 index is stuck at the 16.391 level. If this level is broken with high volume, it would signal an upward trend reversal, while failure to break it would involve a pullback to the 16.391 support level and a further downside risk.

• Inflation and Cost Pressure: Annual inflation of 31.5% is eroding consumer spending and corporate costs. Profit margin pressure continues, especially in energy-intensive industries and the construction sector.

• Geopolitical Uncertainties: Germany-China trade tensions and AI discussions could abruptly disrupt global trade flows and risk appetite.

• Leverage and Stop-Loss: Due to macroeconomic uncertainties, leverage should be avoided, and stop-loss levels should be strictly adhered to. Special attention should be paid to stop-loss levels in weak stocks (DSTKF, GUBRF, EREGL).

• Portfolio Protection: Maintaining a high cash ratio to protect against market volatility is the most important part of a hedging strategy.

6. Recommended Model Portfolio

Based on analyses and technical signals, the model portfolio that optimizes the risk/reward balance is as follows: