Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of 10:00 on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 — BIST 30 (XU030) previous close 15.264.10; previous close 15.648.91 (daily -2.46%); dollar-based daily performance -2.49%. The negligible difference between the index's loss in TL terms and its loss in dollar terms confirms that the selling is not currency-driven. USD/TRY remaining nearly flat at 49.01 with a daily change of +0.03% shows that the value loss in TL assets is fueled by local dynamics. This pattern suggests that rather than pressure coming through the exchange rate, investors' position closing and risk reduction behavior is pulling the index down.

The broad-based nature of the selling strengthens the transmission mechanism. XU100's -2.40% movement parallel to XU030 confirms that the decline is not specific to a few stocks but spread across the market. In this environment, the sharpest declines are expected in high-beta and momentum stocks; indeed, ASTOR -9.99% and ASELS -7.83% stand out. ASTOR's RSI falling to 26.63 and ADX indicating a strong trend at 35.99 suggests that the downward momentum has not yet exhausted. ASELS' CCI dropping to -211.95 shows that the price has fallen well below its statistical average, but this should not be read as a rebound signal on its own. This selling in a strategic sector like defense suggests that profit-taking is progressing as a broad wave without regard to sector distinctions.

Positive divergences within the index show that the selling is not entirely homogeneous. THYAO rising by +1.57% and the WT oscillator giving a BUY signal indicate that the aviation stock has isolated itself from the current selling wave. BIMAS's oscillators giving a 12/7 BUY signal and RSI remaining neutral at 52.5 confirm that the retail sector is positioned as a relatively safe haven in this environment. On the banking side, VAKBN and YKBNK's oscillators giving BUY signals suggest limited resistance may form in banking despite the selling pressure in the index. However, these signals are still weak, and it should be noted that this resistance could break if the index moves from 15.264.10 toward the 15.000 psychological level.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

USD/TRY remaining almost unchanged (+0.05%) at 48,995 at yesterday's close shows that the -2.46% broad-based selling in XU030 cannot be explained by currency pressure; the index's dollar-based return pulled back to -2.49%, indicating that local dynamics (position closing, loss of risk appetite) are dominant. The CBRT's policy rate remaining at 2.65% and real rates (annual CPI 3.2%, monthly 2.57%) still being in positive territory, while credit growth falling to 1.2% annual (previous 37.1%), confirms demand-side slowdown; this reinforces the perception that the banking index (YKBNK +1.35%, VAKBN oscillator BUY) is protected by net interest margin optimization, while in industrial stocks (DSTKF -9.98%, ASTOR -9.99) the pressure from import input costs (EUR/TRY easing -0.46% but REER still strong at 105.04 index level) has turned into margin squeeze.

In the US, the Fed rate remaining at 4.0 and 10-year Treasury yields staying around 5.10% has triggered DXY rising 0.38% to 101.59; while this development is not directly reflected in new market data, the increase in global risk premium and Brent falling -8.0 to $96.8/barrel adds profit-taking pressure in energy-costly sectors (TUPRS -3.77%, THYAO +1.57 divergence). US core PCE remaining at 3.3% annual and inflation expectations rising (1 year 4.6%) keeps the Fed's "higher for longer" narrative alive, and in harmony with the observed 4% increase in VIX (16.29), this is feeding markets' risk aversion.

In local macro data, the continuing gap between TÜFE monthly 2.57% and annual 27.95% and CPI monthly 1.84% (annual 31.51%) suggests that producer cost pressures are not fully passed on to consumer prices; this implies that retail sales' annual 2.3% growth (monthly 0.2%) is not supported by real earnings, and borrowing costs (commercial loan interest 63.74%) are eroding corporate profits. Industrial production's monthly -1% and annual -0,323% trajectory, with capacity utilization rising to 74.2% (previous 73.5), paints a contradictory picture pointing to the end of the inventory replenishment cycle; this reminds us that even if the oversold levels seen in stocks like DSTKF and SASA (RSI 28.0) (RSI 21-26 band) represent a technical bottom, fundamental margin improvement requires the drop in import input costs (Brent -8.0) to be reflected in earnings reports.

Despite the apparent contradiction with Goldman Sachs' "financial conditions are easing in Turkey" assessment, CBRT reserves falling to 62,808 Billion USD (weekly -5.6 Billion USD) and the current account nearly closing (36 Million USD surplus), the banking sector's net profit reaching 676.3 Billion TL and the "up-tick rule" coming up on BIST 50 explain the selective buying flow toward quality assets (BIMAS, VAKBN, YKBNK) in a liquidity tightening environment. If next week's US growth/core consumption data (PCE, GDP) weakens Fed rate cut expectations, DXY could stay above 101,587 and increase the risk of a deeper test of the 15.000 psychological support for XU030; conversely, if US data shows weakness, currency pressure eases and the bank divergence (YKBNK/VAKBN) could pull the index back to the 15.500 band.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

On an oscillator basis, only BİM Birleşik Mağazalar (BIMAS), Vakıfbank (VAKBN) and Yapı ve Kredi Bankası (YKBNK) give a "BUY" recommendation; BIMAS is in the neutral zone with RSI 52.5 at a price of 421.75 TL, VAKBN shows a similar structure with RSI 51.0 at 33.68 TL, and YKBNK with RSI 50.7 at 36.00 TL. In the screening signals, BIMAS and VAKBN are in the "BUY" position in the medium/long term while Wave Trend (WT) is pressing "SELL"; YKBNK, on the other hand, carries a contradiction between the oscillator and trend-following indicators under the general "STRONG SELL" label. The channel positions of these three stocks remain at 31%, 39%, and 41% respectively, suggesting that consolidation continues before a directional breakout.

A deep divergence in oversold area is observed in Astor Enerji (ASTOR), Aselsan (ASELS), Destek Finans Faktoring (DSTKF) and Sasa Polyester (SASA) stocks. ASTOR fell to 211.70 TL (9.99% decline) confirming strong downtrend and oversold with RSI 26.6 and ADX 35.9; ASELS at 338.50 TL (7.83% decline) with CCI -211.95 is approaching historical low levels. DSTKF pulled to 951.50 TL (9.98% decline) with RSI 21.5 and StochK 0.0 showing almost zero momentum; SASA at 1.88 TL with RSI 28.0 and CCI -145.8 signals selling pressure has exhausted, but requires significant buying volume for trend reversal.

Turkish Airlines (THYAO) achieved positive divergence from index with 1.57% increase to 291.50 TL, Wave Trend gives "BUY" signal but oscillator votes "SELL" (7/13/8) and scan is in overall "SELL" position; 60-day -16.0% performance and channel 77% level (near upper band) questions if technical rebound is permanent or temporary pullback. Tüpraş (TUPRS) at 383.25 TL with 3.77% decline suggests it could be in correction phase after 60-day +54.9% strong rise; channel -19 (below lower band), CCI -129 and RSI 45.0 indicate deep pullback, while long-term "BUY" signal still validates the trend. Koç Holding (KCHOL) at 214.10 TL almost flat (0.05%), channel at 2% level testing bottom area; oscillator "NEUTRAL", scan gives "BUY" for long term but overall "SELL" signal, indicating waiting strategy is appropriate until direction is determined.

Market structure shows "STRONG SELL" signals in 24 out of 30 stocks, while ADX values mostly range between 20-30 bands (except exceptional rises like ASTOR 35.9, MGROS 31.9, DSTKF 31.2) proving trend strength is concentrated with sellers. Outside of BIMAS/VAKBN/YKBNK trio with narrowing oscillator range, MACD histograms are almost entirely negative in magnitude and high number of Stochastic stuck below 20% strengthen possibility of technical pullback to psychological support at 15.000 from current 15,264 level; no broad-based buying demand observed except relative strength in banking stocks (YKBNK +1.35).

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

From fundamental data perspective with emphasis on liquidity and operating volume, balance sheet traces of stocks facing selling pressure and showing divergence today were evaluated. In defense sector, ASELS' has 248.77 billion TL in current assets, a size supporting company's operational turnover speed and cash conversion capacity; however, today's -7.83% price correction tests balance between profit realization accumulated over 60 days and financing cost of project-based structure with high working capital requirements.THYAO' has 512.19 billion TL current asset structure, fed by high seasonal cash flows and fuel hedging positions characteristic of aviation sector; WT=AL signal and +1.57% positive divergence prove balance sheet size acts as liquidity anchor during market stress.TUPRS has 439.48 billion TL current assets reflecting refinery working capital intensity; after 60-day +54.9% strong trend, -3.77% decline stems from profit realization pressure against risks of inventory valuation gains normalization and extended cash conversion period.

In conglomerate and non-banking broad-based selling, KCHOL' massive current asset pool of 3.615.15 billion TL shows holding structure's internal financing flexibility and cash transfer capacity between portfolio companies, but channel approaching lower limit (2% bottom area) indicates market doubts pricing efficiency of this size's returns (ROA/ROE). In SAHOL ( 2.790.07 billion TL) and SISE ( 151.30 billion TL) with high current assets, price decline without currency pressure (USD/TRY 49.01 flat) suggests margin squeeze in working capital management has become a sector-wide theme.BIMAS andVAKBN As balance sheet data of this block is not available, comparison cannot be made, but oscillator AL signals and 60-day positive performance suggest more efficient turnover structure is being priced compared to current asset-sized rivals (e.g. TCELL 180.56 billion TL, TTKOM 109.44 billion TL).

In small/mid-cap stocks in oversold area (RSI 20-30 range) like ASTOR, DSTKF, SASA ( 42.00 billion TL current assets), limited balance sheet traces (DSTKF data not in block, SASA at 42 billion TL level) show in overall market risk-averse sentiment, liquidity premium increased and cash conversion period extension risk is reflected more aggressively in prices. FROTO ( 238.89 billion TL), PGSUS ( 91.42 billion TL), TAVHL ( 47.61 billion TL) current asset levels of sectoral leaders, though operating leverage is relatively high, today's broad-based selling hints at "position squeeze" rather than "fundamental disruption"; since these companies' current asset/liability ratios (total assets not in dataset) are within sector norms. In summary, today's fundamental analysis reveals a structure where correction is healthy in large, liquidity-buffered stocks (THYAO, KCHOL, TUPRS) while liquidity risk is priced in small-scale stocks.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

A short-term downward scenario could be created if XU030 index breaks the psychological 15.000 level and this breakdown triggers technical selling signals. As shown in the dataset of the day, only BIMAS, VAKBN and YKBNK stocks have a BUY recommendation, while RSI values are kept low in oversold levels for stocks like DSTKF (RSI 21.5), ASTOR (RSI 26.6) and SASA (RSI 28.0). This situation could open the way for a rapid correction with stop-loss triggers and liquidity shortage if the index closes below the 15.000 support zone; this momentum could be more evident especially in bank and defense stocks technically marked with selling pressure.

An upward scenario, on the other hand, could be supported by a bank divergence starting with YKBNK's daily +1.35% increase. The expression "bull: bank divergence (YKBNK +1.35%) can bring a rebound" specified in the Plan section indicates that the positive momentum in this stock could spread to other major bank stocks and create a short-term recovery environment along with VAKBN which shows a technical BUY signal. Additionally, since KCHOL channel is at a bottom level at 2%, this support purchase could increase the likelihood of retesting after a slight pullback from the 15.264.10 level.

As portfolio protection shields, it is necessary to maintain liquidity positions flexibly to meet urgent cash needs and evaluate opportunities during sudden declines. Instead of opening new positions in oversold stocks (DSTKF, ASTOR, SASA), it would be appropriate to monitor their current situations and place limited buy orders at lower levels if necessary. Focusing on BIMAS, VAKBN and YKBNK stocks that give BUY signals to form the basis of the portfolio, while strictly applying the determined stop-loss levels in these stocks, limits the risk margin. Also, if short-term selling pressure increases after testing the 15.000 level of the index, a hedging strategy can be developed through index-based short positions or derivative products; such hedging operations provide an extra balance against market volatility.

Within this framework, with liquid consistency and selective position management that will limit possible downward momentum, an attempt should be made to benefit from a short-term recovery in stocks like YKBNK and VAKBN that show BUY signals. When both scenarios are evaluated within the framework of the day's technical and fundamental data, the risk-return balance of the portfolio can be maintained flexibly.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

In broad-based selling pressure, the index's -2.46% decline and formation of "STRONG SELL" signals in 24 out of 30 stocks highlight the portfolio protection strategy. Based on oscillators, only BIMAS, VAKBN and YKBNK give "BUY" signals, while the technical scanning overall score remains at "NEUTRAL" or "STRONG SELL" levels in these stocks, making new position openings risky. In line with the planned cash increase and "no new buying" decision; while existing defensive positions (BIMAS, VAKBN) are protected, tactical weight is maintained in YKBNK which gives a bank divergence signal. Cash is held at 55% level to provide flexibility as the index heads for the psychological 15.000 support test.