Daily Market Report

1. Executive Summary and Market Overview

23 September 2026, Wednesday — BIST 30 (XU030) closed at the 16.217.83 level; the previous close was 16.391.39 (daily -1.06%); the daily performance in dollar terms was 1.04%. Markets, under the shadow of global geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility, are trading in a technically critical consolidation zone. The index continues to show a squeeze tendency at the 16.217 level. An upward breakout of this zone would be interpreted as a clear trend reversal signal, while if it fails to break, there is a risk of a pullback towards the 16.217 support level. From a fund management perspective, capital preservation and a selective buying strategy are prioritized. The performance of TUPRS and BIMAS stocks highlighted in past analyses confirms the importance of sectoral differentiation in portfolio management. Particularly, the energy and retail sectors stand out with their differentiated performances against inflation and geopolitical risks.

2. News and Macroeconomic Assessment

News flows maintain uncertainties at global and local levels. News on BloombergHT shows that Germany is preparing an economic measures package targeting China and geopolitical tensions in global trade continue. This situation creates demand uncertainty for export-dependent Turkish companies. Technology-focused developments such as China's response to US companies on artificial intelligence can affect global risk appetite on a momentary basis. In terms of macroeconomic data, inflation stood at 31.5% annually according to TUIK data, continuing to pressure corporate profitability. Cost management is critically important in sectors with high inflationary pressures, such as energy and food. Goldman Sachs' assessment that financial conditions have eased in Turkey shows that liquidity has not decreased, but high inflation keeps real interest rates negative, negatively affecting investor sentiment. Among local developments, cuts in social assistance and minimum wage increase expectations pose a risk of weakening consumer confidence and domestic demand. In this environment, companies' pricing power and cost management capabilities continue to be the key factors determining market performance.

3rd Technical Evaluation (Stock-based)

Sectoral differentiation among stocks is becoming more pronounced. While the BIST 30 index is giving an overall "STRONG SELL" signal, certain stocks are positioned positively based on technical indicators. This differentiation shows that investors are focusing on sectoral and company-specific fundamental dynamics.

• KCHOL — Koç Holding: KCHOL, a representative of the holding sector, is trading at 221.1 TL. Although the stock lost -0.54% on a daily basis, it shows a strong performance with a +13.0% return over 60 days. Technical indicators show that the short and medium-term trend is "BUY". Wilder True Oscillator (WT) gives a "BUY" signal, while the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) is 0.90, indicating a strong positive correlation with the index. TradingView oscillators also support the "BUY" signal with 16 buy, 3 sell, and 9 neutral readings. RSI (55.14) and MACD (2.84) indicators suggest that the upward momentum continues. KCHOL serves as a safe haven in the portfolio, providing stability and diversification.

• BIMAS (BIM): BIMAS, the leader in the retail sector, is at 430.25 TL. The stock shows a performance parallel to KCHOL with a +16.7% return over 60 days. In technical analysis, short, medium, and long-term trends are all determined as "BUY". WT gives a "BUY" signal, while the channel position is at 61%, in the middle of the upward channel. The Pearson correlation coefficient is 0.88, indicating a strong alignment with the index. TradingView oscillators give a "STRONG BUY" signal with 18 buy, 3 sell, and 7 neutral readings. RSI (59.5) and MACD (6.97) values demonstrate its resilience, especially in an inflationary environment. BIMAS stands out in the portfolio as a protective element with its high dividend potential and pricing power against inflation.

• AKBNK (Akbank): In the banking sector, AKBNK is trading at 73.1 TL. The stock is giving recovery signals with a daily +0.90%. Technically, the short-term trend is seen as "BUY". WT gives a "BUY" signal, while the channel position is at 67%, in the upper region of the upward channel. However, the Pearson correlation coefficient is 0.14, indicating a weak relationship with the index. TradingView oscillators give a "BUY" signal with 15 buy, 3 sell, and 10 neutral readings. RSI (55.08) and MACD (0.37) indicators suggest that the recovery has begun but the medium-term trend is still in "WAIT" mode. While a cautious approach is taken to the banking sector in general, AKBNK is evaluated as one of the most solid names in the sector in terms of liquidity and asset quality.

• TUPRS (Tüpraş) (company): TUPRS, the locomotive of the energy and petrochemical sector, is at 397.0 TL. The stock is one of the best performers in the index with a +81.0% return over 60 days. However, it has recently experienced a significant loss of -4.28%, undergoing a technical correction. In technical analysis, the short-term trend is determined as "WAIT". WT gives a "SELL" signal, while the channel position is at -10%, falling to the lower band of the upward channel. The Pearson correlation coefficient is 0.96, indicating an almost perfect positive relationship with the index. TradingView oscillators give a "SELL" signal with 8 buy, 11 sell, and 9 neutral readings. RSI (53.63) and MACD (14.76) indicators suggest that a consolidation period has begun after the sharp rise. While TUPRS still maintains its long-term appeal with its fundamental data and developments in energy prices, it carries volatility risk in the short term.

• GUBRF (Fertilizer Factories): GUBRF in the chemical and fertilizer sector is trading at the 440.0 TL level. The stock is one of the weakest in terms of both technical and fundamental data. In technical analysis, the overall signal has been determined as "STRONG SELL". While the WT indicator gives a "SELL" signal, its channel position is at 18%, in the lower band of the uptrend channel. It has a weak correlation with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.51. TradingView oscillators clearly give a "STRONG SELL" signal with 2 buy, 18 sell, and 8 neutral votes. The RSI (43.0) and MACD (-4.68) indicators show that selling pressure continues. GUBRF is a stock that should be completely removed from the portfolio due to high cost pressure and weak demand.

4. Company and Financial Assessment

The financial health of companies is at the center of investment decisions in current market conditions. The provided current assets data offers important clues about companies' operational efficiency and liquidity position.

• KCHOL and SAHOL: As holding companies, KCHOL and SAHOL are the two largest in BIST 30 in terms of current assets. With current assets of 3.615.15 billion TL for KCHOL and 2.790.07 billion TL for SAHOL, these companies demonstrate their market leadership and diversified business models. These structures serve as a buffer against economic fluctuations and allow companies to maintain borrowing costs at more favorable levels. However, the "STRONG SELL" signal from SAHOL's technical indicators suggests that the market is temporarily rejecting it despite its fundamental strength. This situation is an example of the divergence between fundamental and technical analysis.

• BIMAS and MGROS: In the retail sector, BIMAS and MGROS demonstrate their operational effectiveness with their current assets. BIMAS's 152.41 billion TL and MGROS's 88.38 billion TL in current assets show their dominance in the sector and control over their supply chains. Especially BIMAS's pricing power and high dividend policy in an inflation environment add long-term appeal to the stock. MGROS's technical indicators giving a "SELL" signal shows that performance differentiation is occurring even within the retail sector. This reflects segmentation in consumer spending.

• TUPRS and PETKM: In the energy and petrochemical sector, TUPRS and PETKM have economies of scale with their current assets. TUPRS's 439.48 billion TL and PETKM's 41.74 billion TL in current assets reveal these companies' integrated structures from raw material supply to final product. However, PETKM's technical and fundamental data giving a "SELL" signal shows that TUPRS is more affected by changes in energy prices. This stems from differences in the companies' business areas.

• Banking Sector: In the banking sector, companies with high current assets like AKBNK, GARAN, and ISCTR are liquidity centers of the sector. However, most of these companies' technical indicators giving "NEUTRAL" or "WAIT" signals shows that the sector is generally experiencing a volatile trend. The banking sector is facing pressure on net interest margins in a high inflation and interest rate environment. Therefore, while a cautious approach is generally taken to the sector, individual stocks with high asset quality like AKBNK can find a place in the portfolio selectively.

• Weak Financial Outlook: Companies like GUBRF, SASA, and DSTKF are the weakest in terms of both current assets and technical indicators. Especially DSTKF's 1.608 TL price despite a 60-day loss of 54.7 and a CCI20 value of -192.73 indicates that the company is experiencing a liquidity and profitability crisis. Such companies should be completely removed from the portfolio.

5. Risk Management and Strategy

Under current market conditions, risk management continues to be the most decisive factor in portfolio performance. Investors should carefully observe the following risk factors and the precautions to be taken against them.

• Macroeconomic Risks: The annual inflation of 31.5 is eroding companies' profit margins and reducing consumers' purchasing power. This situation is particularly negatively affecting sectors that are energy-intensive and have low pricing power (steel, aviation, construction). The Fed's interest rate policy can put pressure on global liquidity, reducing foreign capital inflows. Against these risks, weight should be given to inflation-resistant stocks with high dividend potential (BIMAS, KCHOL) in the portfolio. Additionally, a high cash rate should be maintained to provide flexibility against market volatility.

• Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical developments such as Iran-Middle East tensions and Germany-China trade disputes can instantly affect energy prices and global trade flows. Rising energy prices directly increase the costs of energy-intensive companies like TUPRS, EREGL, and TOASO, pressuring their profitability. Against these risks, complete exit should be made from sectors exposed to geopolitical risks (aviation, steel). In the energy sector, companies with solid fundamental data like TUPRS should be monitored only until a short-term buy signal emerges.

• Technical Risks: Whether the BIST 30 index breaks the 16.217 resistance band is the most critical risk factor from a technical perspective. If this band is not broken, there is a risk of the index falling to the 16.217 support level. If this scenario occurs, the cash ratio in the portfolio should be increased to ensure capital preservation. On a stock-by-stock basis, stop-loss levels (for example, 210 TL for KCHOL, 415 TL for BIMAS) must be strictly adhered to. Stop-loss should be an indispensable part of risk management and should not be postponed due to emotional decisions.

• Strategic Approach: In the current environment, "capital protection" is a priority. New purchases should only be made for stocks that have a "strong buy" signal with technical and fundamental alignment. Leverage should absolutely be avoided. The portfolio should be limited to a maximum of 8-10 stocks, and the remaining cash should be kept ready for market opportunities. This strategy will limit a potential downward move while ensuring portfolio participation when an upward trend begins.

6. Recommended Model Portfolio

In light of the above analysis and signals, the following model portfolio is recommended. The portfolio focuses on stocks with high fundamental and technical resilience, creating a shield against market volatility with its cash rate. Weights are determined considering the stocks' signal strength, Pearson correlation coefficient, and channel position.