Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

data: date: September 24, 2026, day name: Thursday
data: XU030 (BIST 30) last close: 16.370.07
data: XU030 (BIST 30) previous close: 16.217.83
data: XU030 (BIST 30) daily change: +0.94%
data: XU100 (BIST 100) last close: 13.251.85
data: XU100 (BIST 100) previous close: 13.198.84
data: XU100 (BIST 100) daily change: +0.40%
data: daily return in USD: +0.94%
data: gram gold daily change: not included in the dataset
data: number of rising stocks: not included in the dataset
data: signal distribution: STRONG BUY: 5, BUY: 4, NEUTRAL: 8, STRONG SELL: 11, SELL: 2

2. What This Means — Transmission Chain

On Thursday, September 24, 2026, the BIST 30 index rose from the 16.217.83 level to the 16.370.07 level, surpassing its previous consolidation band with a daily increase of 0.94%. This data indicates that an "up-step" signal formed in the market is supported by strong divergence, particularly in the energy and retail sectors. In a macroeconomic context, Turkey's 31.5% annual inflation rate and 4% policy rate signal that the real interest rate remains negative and financial conditions are tight, while the US 3.4% inflation and 4.0% interest rate imply a more balanced global risk appetite. This macro dataset reveals that the rise in the BIST 30 is driven by an easing of global risk appetite and the demand strength of local sectors despite local macro pressures, but sustainability in a high-interest environment still depends on risk appetite.

This rise in the index has been reinforced by daily increases of 3.53% and 9.94% in energy stocks such as Tüpraş (TUPRS) and Petkim (PETKM). The performance of these stocks reflects the volatility of global oil prices and Turkey's energy needs, as well as the pressure on industrial production and commercial demand. While rising energy prices push industrial production costs upward, they lead to margin expansion for companies benefiting from high demand and pricing power of petroleum products. However, for energy-intensive industrial companies (e.g., Ereğli Demir Çelik - EREGL), this situation may create cost pressure, while for producers like Tüpraş, it creates a pricing power advantage. This mechanism triggers divergence across sectors while also bringing the risk of increasing the weight of energy stocks in portfolios.

The recovery in the BIST 30 also parallels the performance of the banking sector. While recovery is observed in the daily closes of banks such as Akbank (AKBNK), Yapı Kredi (YKBNK), and Garanti BBVA (GARAN), this indicates that despite Turkey's 37.0% policy rate pushing deposit costs upward, credit demand and consequently banks' net interest margins can be maintained or trend slightly upward. In a high-interest environment, while the collection power in banks' loan portfolios increases, deposit costs also rise; however, if demand persists, banks' interest income may remain above costs and preserve profitability. This situation causes short-term buy signals to form for banking stocks, while as a long-term risk, the risk of an increase in non-performing loans in the loan portfolio and a narrowing of net interest margins in the event of demand contraction persists.

3. News and Macroeconomic Assessment

The current news flow and macro data present a complex picture in the BIST 30 market. Istanbul Airport being Europe's busiest airport and THY's order of 150 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft are considered positive signals for the aviation sector and overall economic activity. These developments indicate that local demand and tourism activity are strengthening, and therefore airline companies may see an increase in passenger volumes. However, the technical signals for the THYAO stock being in the "STRONG SELL" or "SELL" direction suggest that these positive news items have not yet been fully reflected by the market or that investors are disregarding transparency and profitability expectations due to geopolitical risks and a high cost structure. This situation reflects the divergence between the news and the stock price within technical analysis.

In macroeconomic data, Turkey's 31.5% annual inflation rate and 37% policy rate indicate that the real interest rate is negative and cost pressure in the economy persists. This high inflation and interest rate may erode profit margins in real sectors by squeezing consumer spending and corporate costs. Particularly in the retail sector (e.g., Migros - MGROS), while the BİM (BIMAS) stock, which can demonstrate resilience against inflation, is strong, weakening is observed in other retailers. This situation reveals that consumer confidence is weakening and spending is directed only toward inflation-resistant brands with high pricing power, creating intra-sector divergence. This macro dataset reveals that the rise in the BIST 30 is driven by an easing of global risk appetite and the demand strength of local sectors despite local macro pressures, but sustainability in a high-interest environment still depends on risk appetite.

4. Technical Assessment (Stock-Based)

According to technical analysis data, the rise in the BIST 30 index is supported by strong divergence, particularly in the energy and retail sectors. In energy stocks such as Tüpraş (TUPRS) and Petkim (PETKM), the 60-day return was realized at 80.7% and 20.4%, respectively, with strong increases observed in daily closes. Tüpraş positioning at the 11% level of the channel and Petkim at the 67% level indicate that these stocks are in a technical recovery trend. However, Tüpraş's overall signal being "BUY" and TradingView oscillator recommendations being specified as "STRONG BUY" indicate that these stocks carry buying potential but also carry the risk of entering the overbought zone. Petkim's "NEUTRAL" signal, despite not being a clear technical buy signal, along with its daily rise and high-volume close, indicates that it carries short-term recovery potential.

In the retail sector, the BİM (BIMAS) stock shows the strongest performance with a 60-day return of 19.5% and a channel position of 66%. BİM's overall signal being "STRONG BUY" and TradingView recommendations being specified as "STRONG BUY" indicate that this stock is preferred by investors due to its inflation resilience and pricing power. BİM's RSI value of 61.15 and StochK value of 82.76 signal that it is technically in the buy zone and carries short-term upward movement potential. This stock can be considered one of the biggest drivers of the index's rise. Koç Holding (KCHOL) stock shows strong performance with a 60-day return of 14.3% and a channel position of 33%. KCHOL's overall signal being "STRONG BUY" and TradingView recommendations being specified as "STRONG BUY" indicate that this stock moves with high correlation (0.91) to the index and plays an important role in the index's recovery.

In the banking sector, while recovery is observed in the daily closes of banks such as Akbank (AKBNK), Yapı Kredi (YKBNK), and Garanti BBVA (GARAN), this indicates that despite Turkey's 37.0% policy rate pushing deposit costs upward, credit demand and consequently banks' net interest margins can be maintained or trend slightly upward. In a high-interest environment, while the collection power in banks' loan portfolios increases, deposit costs also rise; however, if demand persists, banks' interest income may remain above costs and preserve profitability. This situation causes short-term buy signals to form for banking stocks, while as a long-term risk, the risk of an increase in non-performing loans in the loan portfolio and a narrowing of net interest margins in the event of demand contraction persists.

5. Company and Financial Assessment

Company-based financial data further clarifies the performance divergence in the BIST 30. Tüpraş (TUPRS), with 439.48 billion TL in current assets, is one of the companies with the largest asset value. The company's daily closing price is 411.0 TL and the 60-day return was realized at 80.7%. Tüpraş's channel position at the 11% level indicates that it is in a technical recovery trend. However, TradingView recommendations being specified as "STRONG BUY" indicate that this stock carries buying potential but also carries the risk of entering the overbought zone. Tüpraş's RSI value of 59.49 and StochK value of 62.34 signal that it is technically in the buy zone and carries short-term upward movement potential.

BİM (BIMAS), with 152.41 billion TL in current assets, is one of the largest companies in the retail sector. The company's daily closing price is 433.75 TL and the 60-day return was realized at 19.5%. BİM's channel position at the 66% level indicates that it is in a technical recovery trend. BİM's RSI value of 61.15 and StochK value of 82.76 signal that it is technically in the buy zone and carries short-term upward movement potential. BİM's overall signal being "STRONG BUY" and TradingView recommendations being specified as "STRONG BUY" indicate that this stock is preferred by investors due to its inflation resilience and pricing power.

Koç Holding (KCHOL), with 3.615.15 billion TL in current assets, is one of the largest holding companies. The company's daily closing price is 221.1 TL and the 60-day return was realized at 14.3%. KCHOL's channel position at the 33% level indicates that it is in a technical recovery trend. KCHOL's RSI value of 55.14 and StochK value of 65.63 signal that it is technically in the buy zone and carries short-term upward movement potential. KCHOL's overall signal being "STRONG BUY" and TradingView recommendations being specified as "STRONG BUY" indicate that this stock moves with high correlation (0.91) to the index and plays an important role in the index's recovery.

6. Risk Management and Strategy

From a risk management perspective, capital preservation is the priority in the BIST 30 market. The index reaching 16,370.07 and rising above the previous close can be considered a short-term recovery signal. However, as seen in macroeconomic data, Turkey's 31.5% annual inflation rate and 37% policy interest rate indicate that the real interest rate is negative and cost pressures in the economy persist. This high inflation and interest rate can erode profit margins in real sectors by squeezing consumer spending and corporate costs. Particularly for energy-intensive industrial companies (e.g., Ereğli Demir Çelik - EREGL), this can create cost pressure, while for producers like Tüpraş, it creates a pricing power advantage.

This rise in the index has been strengthened by daily increases of 3.53% and 9.94% in energy stocks such as Tüpraş (TUPRS) and Petkim (PETKM). The performance of these stocks reflects the volatility of global oil prices and Turkey's energy needs, as well as the pressure on industrial production and commercial demand. While rising energy prices push industrial production costs upward, they lead to margin expansion in companies that benefit from high demand and pricing power for petroleum products. However, while this situation can create cost pressure for energy-intensive industrial companies, it creates a pricing power advantage for producers like Tüpraş. This mechanism triggers divergence between sectors while also bringing the risk of increasing the weight of energy stocks in the portfolio.

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