Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of September 28, 2026, 08:08 — BIST 30 (XU030) close 15.946.95; previous close 15.940.38 (daily +0.04%); daily performance in dollars -0.01%. The index's sideways movement in TL terms, coupled with negative dollar-based returns, suggests that the daily increase was largely driven by currency movements. USD/TRY is stable at 48.97, up +0.05% from the previous close; however, this situation indicates a transmission mechanism where TL returns cannot be preserved in real terms for foreign investors. The slight positive divergence of XU100 with +0.09% compared to XU030 indirectly confirms the pressure on banking and holding stocks in the index's weighted structure.

In the data → cause → mechanism chain, the first breaking point is currency exchange rate-related. The sideways movement of the exchange rate limits return generation in TL assets; while the -0.01% performance in dollar terms shows that the index's struggle to hold at 15.946 has not yet created a trend reversal. Under these conditions, sectoral impact diverges: industrial companies with high foreign exchange income (KRDMD, TOASO) gain relative advantage from the stabilization of the exchange rate; while sell signals in banking stocks (AKBNK, GARAN, YKBNK) and pressure in holding stocks (SAHOL) create a mixed outlook in the index's weighted components. On the technical side, KRDMD giving a BUY signal on all timeframes and TOASO trading at the upper band of the channel with +3.76% daily indicates selective capital flow toward industrial and automotive sectors; conversely, it shows that exit from banking and holding-heavy positions continues.

On the risk side, two critical breakdown scenarios emerge. First, the possibility of increased selling pressure if the index falls below 15.900; this level should be monitored as the lower limit of the current sideways band. Second, TUPRS's WT SELL signal and trading at the channel bottom despite a +69.3% return over 60 days — the risk of profit-taking in this stock will test the sustainability of the positive divergence in the energy sector. Despite GUBRF achieving the highest volume increase with +6.45% daily, the overall SELL outlook indicates an environment where momentum buys could mask underlying weakness. In this picture, the index's sideways movement highlights sector-based positioning decisions for portfolio managers; a day is expected where stock-specific divergence will determine return differences rather than the index level.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

The macro dataset shows that the most significant pressure the market carries on Monday, September 28, is the slowing but continuing impact of the inflation-interest-rate-exchange rate spiral. Turkey's annual inflation at 31.51% and the policy rate kept stable at 2.65% ensure positive real interest rates; however, the rise in consumer credit rates to 63.74% indicates continued fragility in domestic demand. This picture supports sell signals in banking stocks; as despite the decline in deposit rates, high credit interest rates fuel the annual slowdown in credit growth (2.3%), maintaining pressure on banks' net interest margins. The key change from yesterday's close is the better-than-expected new home sales (0,684 million units) and the strong increase in durable goods orders (1.1%) in the US, which supports global risk appetite to a limited extent; however, this positive sentiment is balanced by the decline in Eurozone consumer confidence to -16.5 points.

The calm movement on the currency front continues to be the most critical support for TL assets. USD/TRY's sideways movement at 48.97 and the slight decline in the dollar index (DXY) to 100.97 directly benefits industrial stocks through lower import input costs. However, this scenario remains valid despite the sharp drop in Brent oil (down -8.6% weekly to $97.44/barrel); as this decline in energy costs supports the improvement in the external balance despite the current account balance falling below expectations at $0,036 billion. Still, the real effective exchange rate's decline to 23.5 shows that while it maintains the competitiveness of exporting companies, domestic demand weakness could impact sales volumes. At this point, the sustainability of the strong signals in industrial stocks (KRDMD, TOASO) largely depends on the exchange rate remaining in this calm band; in the opposite scenario, a significant rise in USD/TRY could pressure margins through increased input costs.

The news flow has a dual impact on market psychology. On one hand, MASAK's increased measures against crime proceeds and terrorist financing, and the lifting of some restrictions on funds, strengthen the perception of reduced regulatory uncertainty; on the other hand, the scrutiny of bagel price increases and news of fuel price hikes remind the market of inflationary pressures. Particularly, the rise in US inflation expectations (1-year 4.6%) and the 30-year Treasury yield exceeding the 4% level keep alive concerns about possible tightening of global financial conditions. This emerges as a factor limiting risk appetite for emerging market assets; however, the VIX index remaining at a low 14.87 indicates no systemic risk perception in the markets yet.

From an investor psychology perspective, the index's struggle to hold at 15.946 points to a market where selective stock movements are prominent. The selling pressure on banking and holding stocks with weak technical signals paints a picture consistent with macro data; while buy signals in industrial stocks are supported by the calm exchange rate movement and falling energy costs. However, whether this divergence will be permanent depends less on data to be released in the coming days and more on changes in global interest rate expectations and whether the exchange rate can maintain this band. Despite positive technical signals, the absence of confirmation on net interest margins in the macro framework shows that weakness in banking stocks may continue, and the movement in industrial stocks could be fragile.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

The technical outlook for BIST 30 today, despite the index's sideways movement, indicates a structure where stock-specific divergence has become more pronounced. In signal scanningKRDMD, standing out as the only stock that generates an AL signal across all timeframes (short, medium, long term) and receives oscillator confirmation. Kardemir's rise by 1.65% daily to 46.96 TL, combined with a 20.0% return over 60 days, supports the continuation of the trend. With a TradingView oscillator vote of 18 buy / 1 sell / 9 neutral indicating 'STRONG BUY', the stock shows positive momentum with RSI at 57.92, MACD at 0.59, and CCI20 at 95.58; its channel position at 54 indicates it's in the middle and hasn't entered overbought territory, suggesting room for upward movement. However, ADX at 17.42 indicates limited trend strength; therefore, the current AL signal may only be confirmed if upward movement accelerates toward the upper channel band.

In the automotive sector, TOASO, rising by 3.76% daily to 290.00 TL, has reached the upper channel band (80%). With a short-term AL and long-term AL signal, the oscillator vote of 18 buy / 2 sell / 8 neutral indicates 'STRONG BUY'; while RSI at 55.6 and MACD at 2.14 support momentum, CCI20 at 58.07 shows buying pressure continues. However, the 60-day return of -5.3% and the r-value of -0.28 in negative territory indicate the uptrend hasn't yet reversed the medium-term trend. TOASO trading at the upper channel band means a resistance test in the short term; if it fails to sustain above this level, there's a risk of a pullback into the channel.

In the energy and petrochemical group, TUPRS, despite a strong 60-day return of 69.3%, has fallen 1.16% daily to 406.00 TL, reaching the bottom of the channel (4%). The WT signal turning to SELL and the oscillator vote balance of 11 buy / 8 sell / 9 neutral indicate uncertainty in the stock. While RSI at 56.54 and MACD at 12.24 remain positive, showing the medium-term trend hasn't broken, ADX at 28.04 indicates relatively high trend strength, emphasizing that this level at the channel bottom is a critical support test. If TUPRS fails to hold this support, there's a risk that the accumulated 60-day return could be realized; however, no specific support level is defined in the current data.

On the weak side, bank stocks and SASA are attracting attention. All of AKBNK, GARAN, and YKBNK show WT SELL signals and obvious selling pressure in oscillator votes; GARAN's 'STRONG SELL' vote of 0 buy / 19 sell / 9 neutral, along with RSI at 47.72 and CCI20 at -53.64, shows momentum has turned negative. SASA is at the bottom of the channel at 1%, with RSI at 33.53 and StochK at 3.82 in oversold conditions; however, the oscillator vote distribution of 2 buy / 20 sell / 6 neutral shows the current price level hasn't generated sufficient signals for buying. DSTKF's 9.97% top-down and RSI at 24.44 in oversold territory show selling pressure continues; overall, a technical picture is forming where selective buy signals in industrial and energy stocks contrast with strong sell signals in banking and chemicals.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

The current asset sizes in the dataset paint a clear picture of sectoral differentiation from a balance sheet perspective. While KCHOL (3.615.15 billion TL) and SAHOL (2.790.07 billion TL) holding companies maintain massive balance sheet scales, their fundamental analysis outlook contrasts with strong sell signals technically. Although the large current asset sizes in these bank and holding-heavy structures provide operational flexibility, this scale hasn't emerged as a value catalyst in current market pricing. Meanwhile, industrial companies like THYAO (512.19 billion TL) and TUPRS (439.48 billion TL) with high current asset bases offer relatively solid ground in terms of balance sheet depth; however, in TUPRS's specific case, the WT SELL signal after a strong 60-day return performance suggests this size may be insufficient to support the price in the short term.

From a liquidity and scale ratio perspective, the absolute size of current assets isn't a standalone value indicator; it must be interpreted along with the sector's business model. EKGYO with 387.01 billion TL being one of the companies with the highest current assets reflects the natural balance sheet structure of the real estate sector due to inventory and project financing. Similarly, KRDMD with 32.40 billion TL being one of the companies with the smallest current asset base aligns with the lower working capital needs of the iron-steel sector. In this context, KRDMD generating AL signals across all timeframes with oscillator confirmation shows that operational efficiency is positively reflected in price despite the small balance sheet scale. Conversely, SASA's 42.00 billion TL current asset size and channel position at 1% indicate that balance sheet scale hasn't acted as a risk-reducing factor in current pricing.

The portfolio management inference from a fundamental analysis perspective is that scale alone isn't a defense mechanism; balance sheet structures aligned with sectoral dynamics and technical signals are highlighted. In an environment where banking and holding companies show strong sell signals, their massive current asset bases (KCHOL, SAHOL) may struggle to support prices in the short term. On the industrial side, TOASO's (+3.76% daily) AL signal at the upper channel band with a 152.29 billion TL balance sheet shows that a medium-scale balance sheet structure provides sufficient ground for positive differentiation. Despite GUBRF achieving the highest gain (+6.45) with the highest volume (48.99 billion TL), its overall outlook being SELL indicates that balance sheet size doesn't change the trend direction; therefore, cases where fundamental data contradicts technical signals require cautious positioning.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

The index's attempt to hold at 15.946.95 creates a critical threshold for the short-term direction. In a bearish scenario, the index falling below 15.900 could accelerate selling pressure, particularly in banking (AKBNK, GARAN, YKBNK) and holding (SAHOL) stocks showing 'STRONG SELL' signals. In this case, value loss could deepen in oversold stocks like SASA at channel 1% and DSTKF which made a top with -9.97% (RSI < 45). In a bullish scenario, the index holding sustainably above 15.946.95, led by stocks showing AL signals across all timeframes like KRDMD and TOASO, could support a selective recovery despite the weak outlook. However, TUPRS being at channel bottom 4% with a WT SELL signal shows the strong 60-day trend (+69.3%) in the energy sector could face profit-taking pressure.

As a portfolio protection shield, maintaining high cash ratios is currently prioritized in the market structure. While the index is flat at -0.01% in dollar terms, TL returns face limited pressure due to the calm USD/TRY level at 48.97. In this environment, new positions should not be opened in stocks showing 'STRONG SELL' signals (ASELS, EKGYO, FROTO, ISCTR, MGROS, PGSUS, SISE, THYAO), while existing positions should be protected with stop-loss levels. Weight in strong-signal stocks like KRDMD and TOASO should be reduced if the index falls below 15.900; cash ratio should be increased to protect against potential declines. Otherwise, if the index holds above 15.946.95 and KRDMD maintains momentum at channel 54, selective stock positions can be gradually increased.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

The model portfolio has been created by evaluating signal strength, channel position, and Pearson (r) coefficient together in today's dataset. KRDMD and TOASO showing strong AL signals are prominent as weighted positions, while TTKOM with AL signal near resistance and GUBRF with medium-term SELL outlook are added to the portfolio with lower weights. Due to 'STRONG SELL' signals in banking and holding stocks, no positions have been opened in this group; a cautious stance is maintained with high cash ratio against the index's attempt to hold at 15.946.