Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of October 1, 2026, Thursday, 08:15 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 14.842.04; previous close 15.264.10 (daily -2.77%); daily performance in dollar terms -2.79%. BIST 100 (XU100) completed the same session at 11.947.18; previous close 12.290.58 (daily -2.79%). USD/TRY at 49.02; previous 49.01 (daily +0.03). When read together, these data make the source of the selling clear: the +0.03% movement in the exchange rate remained at a negligible level, so the nearly overlapping losses of -2.77% in TL terms and -2.79% in dollar terms indicate that the decline was not currency-driven; the main driver was the decline in local risk appetite and position closing. Thus, the index is declining for the third consecutive session; it is now below the 15.000 psychological support level (14.842.04) noted as 'moving towards the 15.000 psychological support' in previous session summaries.

In the breadth ring of the transmission chain, the table is uniform: while all 30 stocks in the scan were negative, 26 gave a STRONG SELL signal; the only name remaining NEUTRAL in the overall signal is BIMAS (RSI 50.3). The banking leg is the engine of the decline: ISCTR -5.79% generated the index's largest daily loss; YKBNK -5.44% is in the STRONG SELL zone in all three tenors and oscillators. In the 60-day perspective, AKBNK -9.0% and YKBNK -9.5% with double-digit losses indicate that the bank selling is not a one-day flow but a sustained exit; due to the weight of banks in the index, this sector tendency mechanically converts the selling into a broad-based decline. Following banks, the collapse deepens in the momentum leg: ASTOR -9.97% has brought its 60-day loss to -41.4%; RSI 23.1 and ADX 38.4 show the presence of both oversold territory and the strength of the downtrend at the same time. DSTKF has a similar profile: -9.98% daily loss, -78.2% decline in 60 days, and RSI 20.3.

Relative strength, according to the same data set, delineates the transmission boundary: TUPRS -0.07% almost closed flat and maintained its 60-day +48.5% positive area; BIMAS -0.77% with a limited loss. This divergence shows that the selling did not hit all stocks equally; defensive and relatively strong shares remained at the end of the liquidity exit. Two findings stand out in the risk reading: While the RSI below 35 intensity (DSTKF 20.3; ASTOR 23.1; SASA 26.1) does not completely rule out the possibility of a short-term reaction rally, ADX values above 30 (ASTOR 38.4; MGROS 32.2) indicate that counter-trend carries high risk without confirmation of the signal. As long as the exchange rate remains stable, the trigger for the downward transmission will continue to be local risk appetite rather than a currency shock; therefore, on the watch list, priority should be given to whether the STRONG SELL number decreases from 26 rather than the exchange rate. This reading should be re-evaluated if the breadth table starts to diverge with decreasing breadth.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

At yesterday's close, while USD/TRY was almost unchanged (+0,009%) at 49.00, BIST 30 fell -2.77% in dollar terms to 14.842.04; this divergence shows that the selling pressure stems from local portfolio rebalancing rather than a currency depreciation. While the CBRT policy rate remained stable at 2.65%, the real interest rate (annual CPI 3.2%, monthly 2.57%) still remains in positive territory; however, September industrial production falling monthly -0.1%, annually -0.1%, and the capacity utilization rate declining to 74.2% indicate that tight monetary conditions continue to impact the real sector. The banking index losing at -37% levels (ISCTR -5.79%, YKBNK -36,322) signals that net interest margin is under pressure as credit growth slowed from 2.3% annually and deposit interest fell to 43.94%.

European-side macro data is dampening risk appetite from the top: Eurozone economic expectation index fell to 97.9 (forecast 99.0), consumer confidence dropped to -16.5; despite the ECB policy rate remaining at 2.65%, while core inflation remains at 2.4%, Germany's consideration of measures against China and German inflation rising to 3.3% in September (a 3-year high) increase demand-side risk for pro-EU exporter stocks (TUPRS, FROTO, TOASO). On the US side, the 30-year Treasury yield rising to 4% and DXY holding at 101.40 prove that Fed rate cut expectations have been delayed and global liquidity conditions remain tight; this also shows that foreign portfolio inflows (with Goldman Sachs' 'financial conditions are easing' emphasis in the news flow of the last 7 days) have not turned into net selling on BIST.

In the news flow, the BDDK's transfer of 3 banks and 2 factoring companies to TMSF and the SPK's decision to make advance payments of up to 1 million TL to fund victims remind us that the financial stability-focused inspection process is deepening; the end of the Esel Mobil system in fuel oil and the application of a gradual exit model in gasoline remind us that cost-push inflation risk will remain on the agenda towards year-end. Volkswagen and BMW's global strategy revisions (union contract terminations, new strategy) could reshape the cost/efficiency balance for the automotive chain (TOASO, FROTO). In summary; in an environment where the exchange rate is stable, interest rates are low, real activity is weak, and external demand risk is upward, the bank-weighted selling is expected to continue its path consistent with technical signals (RSI below 35 intensity, WT full SELL); however, the oversold formation in the RSI 20-25 band (DSTKF 20.3, ASTOR 23.1) could trigger a sharp technical reaction (short covering) in case of any positive macro surprise (e.g. current account data or tourism revenue revision).

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

While BIST 30 produces STRONG SELL signals for 26 stocks today with RSI values concentrated below 35 (DSTKF 20.3; ASTOR 23.1; SASA 26.1) and ADX levels above 30 (ASTOR 38.4; MGROS 32.2) confirming the strength of the downtrend. WaveTrend (WT) indicator is in SELL direction across all stocks, with only BIMAS outside of this confirming this signal.

DSTKF (Destek Finans Faktoring) and ASTOR (Astor Enerji), which show the most extreme divergence, prices fell by 9.98% and 9.97% respectively, with their 60-day performances at -78.2% and -41.4 levels. Both stocks are in oversold territory with RSI levels of 20.3 and 23.1; ADX values are 33 for Destek Finans Faktoring (DSTKF) and 38 for Astor Enerji (ASTOR), indicating strong downward momentum. WT signals are also in SELL direction, channel divergences are determined as DSTKF 14%, ASTOR %‑20; this situation increases the risk of bottom hunting as prices approach the lower boundary of current channels.

In the banking sector, İş Bankası (ISCTR), Yapı Kredi (YKBNK), Akbank (AKBNK), Garanti BBVA (GARAN) and VakıfBank (VAKBN) all give STRONG SELL signals. RSI values range between 38.1-41.8, while ADX is at 21.6-22.0 levels; WT is in SELL direction in all these stocks. Daily price movements show double-digit declines such as ISCTR %‑5.79, YKBNK %‑5.44 and AKBNK %‑4.15; 60-day performances are ISCTR %‑15.6, YKBNK %‑9.5, AKBNK %‑9.0 with losses. These signals indicate that bank stocks are under short-term pressure and risk aversion tendencies may continue.

In defense and energy sectors, BIMAS (BİM) is the only stock providing NEUTRAL signal; despite RSI 50.31, ADX 17.53 and WT SELL, price fell by %‑0.77 but gained 12.5% in 60 days. TUPRS produces a SELL signal with RSI 42.09, ADX 28.07 and WT SELL; price changed by %‑0.07 but its 60-day return is at 48.5% level, showing relative strength. These two stocks are under relatively less pressure amidst broad market selling and can be monitored carefully for short-term buying opportunities.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

TUPRS's current assets at 439.48 billion TL show one of the highest levels in the list; compared to other large companies like MGROS (88.38 billion TL) and SAHOL (2.790.07 billion TL), this provides a solid foundation in terms of liquidity. The size of current assets can be evaluated as a positive indicator for meeting short-term obligations and maintaining operational flexibility.

Current asset information is not available in the dataset for other prominent stocks (ISCTR, YKBNK, ASTOR, DSTKF, BIMAS); similarly, fundamental performance metrics such as profitability, net profit and gross profit margins are also not present. This lack of difficulty directly analyzing the profitability situation and income structure of these companies. However, price movements and oversold signals show that the market's risk perception for these stocks has increased and potential profit pressures are being felt.

Since the dataset contains only current assets, it is not possible to calculate ratios such as current ratio, liquidity ratio; the exact strength of the current liquidity position cannot be clearly demonstrated as long as the size of short-term liabilities is unknown. In this context, TUPRS's high current asset level provides a buffer against liquidity risk, while making a similar assessment for other stocks is limited due to data insufficiency.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

While USD/TRY remains almost stable at 49.02 with +0.03%, BIST 30 fell by -2.77% to 14.842.04, and BIST 100 fell by -2.79% to 14.842; the -2.79% loss in dollar terms confirms that the selling is not currency-based. In this context, the base scenario is the continuation of the broad-based downtrend led by banks: while all 30 stocks closed the day negative, 26 gave STRONG SELL signals and only BIM remained NEUTRAL in the overall signal. The strength of the trend is also evident from ADX values of Destek Finans Faktoring (33.5), Astor Energy (38.4), Migros (32.2) and Sabancı Holding (31.5) being above 30. In previous day summaries, 15.000 and then 14.800 were monitored as supports; the close at 14.842.04 fell below the first reference point, bringing the 14.800 region back to the agenda. This scenario weakens if the index closes above 15.000 and oscillator signals collectively turn to BUY; otherwise, a narrowing of the decline breadth should not be expected.

The alternative scenario is a reaction rally driven by oversold conditions. RSI values have fallen to 20.3 for Destek Finans Faktoring, 23.1 for Astor Energy, 26.1 for Sasa Polyester and 31.5 for Pegasus; this intensity increases the possibility of a short-term technical recovery, but defines a ground that alone does not provide trading opportunities. Since the daily closes of -9.98% and -9.97% for these papers indicate that possible reaction movements could also be sharp, counter-directional purchases should only be evaluated with signal confirmation — oscillator suggestions turning from SELL to NEUTRAL/BUY and closing-based confirmation. The reaction scenario becomes invalid if RSI's fail to rise above 35 and retreat back, and signals turn back to SELL. As the horizontal movement at 49.02 on the currency front does not support a separate currency shock scenario with today's data, this aspect is not highlighted in the agenda.

Portfolio shields are grouped under four headings. First, by continuing signal-confirmed reduction in banking positions (İş Bankası -5.79%, Yapı Kredi -5.44%, Garanti BBVA -4.80%, Akbank -4.15%), divergence is achieved from high-correlation selling risk. Second, by preserving the high cash/liquid weight predicted in the model portfolio, flexibility is maintained for selling in reaction rallies and re-entry after confirmation; thus, the liquidity recommendation here works in the same direction as the cash line in the portfolio section. Third, stop losses are kept closing-based to prevent unnecessary position exits from intra-day noise in high-volatility papers like Destek Finans Faktoring and Astor Energy; bottom hunting in these stocks should not be done without signal confirmation and with limited position size. Fourth, BİM (overall signal NEUTRAL, RSI 50.3) and Tüpraş (60 days +48.5%, daily -0.07%) are kept in the portfolio as defense and relative strength counters. This framework aims for capital protection in the base scenario and only confirmed participation in the alternative scenario; avoiding leveraged positions is a common condition in both scenarios to preserve the risk budget.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

The broad-based selling pressure and the index's 2.77% decline led by banks requires shifting the portfolio to a cash-weighted, defense-oriented structure. In the technical scan, 29 out of 30 stocks gave SELL/STRONG SELL signals, with only BIM remaining in NEUTRAL position and Tüpraş showing relative strength with +48.5% over 60 days. In this environment, instead of opening new long positions, current defense and relative strength positions are preserved and the cash buffer has been increased to the 65% level.