Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of October 8, 2026, 14:48 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 14.942.97; previous close 15.013.83 (daily -0.47%); daily performance in dollar terms -0.50%. The index is trading with a dollar-based erosion slightly above the TL-based loss; the horizontal course of USD/TRY at 49.21 (+0.03%) does not create additional pressure on valuation in foreign currency. This picture shows that the selling pressure is not currency-driven but is fed directly by the contraction in local risk appetite. After the sharp drop of -2.39% in the previous session, the index's effort to hold below the 15.000 psychological support indicates that buyers have not yet been able to form a clear defense line.

The sectoral distribution of selling pressure reveals that the decline does not come from a single channel, but the weight in banking and aviation stocks is decisive. In banking, except for VAKBN's NEUTRAL signal, the maintenance of the general SELL signal despite WT=BUY in other stocks shows that the sector's recovery effort has not yet been reflected in prices. On the aviation side, selling pressure continues with the combined effect of fuel costs and geopolitical risk premium. In contrast, the energy and petrochemical group is positively diverging: TUPRS gives a BUY signal in all periods with a daily +2.50%, while PETKM carries WT=BUY and a channel potential of 40% with +1.99%. This divergence shows that the fund flow within the index has shifted from banking and aviation to energy, and therefore the decline has a sectoral rotation character rather than being broad-based.

From a transmission mechanism perspective, the index's current stance at 14.942.97 harbors the risk of accelerating sales if permanence below the 15.000 support cannot be achieved. However, the strong signals from the energy group led by TUPRS indicate that a selective position closing process is underway rather than a selling wave spreading to the entire index. The presence of more than 20 stocks giving a STRONG SELL signal reminds that a broad-based risk is still on the table; while the partial recovery scenario driven by energy could come to the fore if the index finds support at 14.942.97. Therefore, in the current picture, the approach of reducing banking and aviation positions while maintaining the energy weight stands out as a balanced strategy both to limit downside risk and to benefit from the positively diverging sector.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

3) Macro Outlook and News Flow

On the Turkish side, September inflation data came in at 29.73% year-on-year, below expectations (30.3%), while the monthly increase remained parallel to the previous month at 1.84%. The annual PPI level of 27.38% and the monthly increase of 2.07% indicate that upward pressure on producer prices continues. Although this picture aligns with Minister Şimşek's statement that "we have not given up the fight even if the disinflation process slows down," keeping the policy rate at 37.0% and Fed member Waller's signal of additional rate hikes on the US side stand out as the main factors pressuring return expectations in TL assets. The slowdown in the decline of inflation limits domestic demand through the real interest rate channel; while the annual credit growth level of 36.3% indicates that pressure on the net interest margin of banking stocks will continue. This situation supports the selling pressure in the index being banking-driven; however, the positive surprise in inflation keeps rate cut expectations alive, maintaining the hope of improvement in financing costs for highly indebted sectors such as energy and petrochemicals.

On the currency front, the horizontal course of USD/TRY at 49.19 (daily +0.10%) does not create additional currency-driven pressure on TL assets. However, the dollar-based loss being higher than the TL return is a factor that reduces the index's attractiveness for foreign investors. The strengthening of DXY at 102.28 and the rise of the US 30-year bond yield to 5.66% point to a global funding cost environment that could increase outflow pressure from emerging markets. In this framework, with allegations of US preparations for new attacks on Iran, Brent crude gaining more than 4% to rise to 101.17 USD/barrel poses a negative risk to the current account balance for an energy-importing country like Turkey. In contrast, news of expectations for fuel price hikes stands out as the fundamental basis supporting the positive divergence of TUPRS and PETKM by positively affecting refinery margins. This view may lose validity if geopolitical tensions do not permanently push oil prices higher and global demand remains weak.

In the news flow, the defense industry stands out; ASELSAN's recently announced contracts of 195 million dollars and 488.5 million euros confirm the strong course in the company's order book. However, despite this positive company news, the selling pressure in defense and aviation stocks indicates that profit-taking is being carried out against the sector's recent high valuations. Statements from the US regarding F-35 sales should be monitored as a development that could reduce the geopolitical risk premium; this suggests that part of the selling pressure in defense stocks may be news-driven. The contradiction between macro data and company signals is particularly evident in banking stocks: although technical signals are in the direction of WT=BUY, high deposit rates (43.8%) and the slowdown in credit growth show that confirmation of the net interest margin has not yet occurred. Therefore, the sustainability of possible reaction buying in banking stocks will depend on the strengthening of rate cut expectations.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

4) Technical Analysis — Featured Stocks

The most prominent technical divergence of the day is occurring in the energy group, led by Tüpraş (TUPRS). TUPRS is the strongest stock in the index with a daily +2.50%, and its 60-day performance of +38.4% indicates a remarkable trend strength. TUPRS, the only stock producing a BUY signal in all periods (short/medium/long term) in the technical scan, confirms the stability of the trend with its 16% channel position and high correlation coefficient (r) of 0.83. On the oscillator front, the TradingView vote is in the direction of BUY (14 buy/6 sell/8 neutral); RSI being in the neutral zone at 50.03 leaves room for the upward movement to continue without creating overbought pressure. However, the fact that MACD has not yet turned positive at -0.33 shows that the current rise is driven by buying pressure rather than momentum; therefore, existing positions in TUPRS can be maintained, but caution is needed in pricing approaching the upper band of the channel for new purchases.

The technical picture in banking stocks constitutes the main source of the selling pressure in the overall index. Yapı Kredi (YKBNK) is the bank stock with the sharpest decline at -3.61% daily, while the general signal is SELL; however, the WT signal being BUY creates a notable contradiction. YKBNK's channel position of 20% and r=0.62 maintain trend integrity, but the TradingView oscillator vote is in the direction of STRONG SELL (1 buy/18 sell/9 neutral) and RSI gives a weakening signal at 47.71. Garanti BBVA (GARAN) and İş Bankası (ISCTR) also exhibit a similar structure: in both, despite WT=BUY, the general signal is SELL and oscillator votes are STRONG SELL (1 buy/19 sell and 1 buy/19 sell, respectively). The low correlation coefficients of GARAN with r=0.36 and ISCTR with r=0.29 suggest that the trend is weakening and that the current WT=BUY signals may consist of a short-term reaction buying. In this group, Akbank (AKBNK) stands out as the bank giving the clearest sell signal with WT=SELL and a general STRONG SELL signal.

The technical outlook in aviation stocks constitutes one of the weakest links of the index. Although Turkish Airlines (THYAO) experienced a limited decline of -1.14% daily, its 60-day performance of -14.2% and r=-0.88 give it one of the most negative correlation coefficients in the dataset; this indicates that the trend continues strongly downward. Despite THYAO's channel position of 46% moving within a wide band, RSI 41.85 and MACD -3.35 values confirm that momentum remains weak. Pegasus (PGSUS) similarly has r=-0.82 and RSI 33.8, approaching the oversold zone; however, in an environment where the trend is strong with ADX 26.83, oversold signals do not provide sufficient justification for short-term reaction buying. TAV Havalimanları (TAVHL), on the other hand, exhibits a directionless view with r=-0.00, while its WT=BUY signal and 51% channel position indicate a relatively more balanced technical structure compared to other aviation stocks.

Among the stocks in the oversold zone, Astor Enerji (ASTOR) remains technically fragile despite its daily gain of +1.62%. Although its RSI of 30.49 in the oversold zone raises the potential for short-term bargain buying, the sharp 60-day loss of -39.9% and r=-0.66 show that the downward strength of the trend makes it difficult for this rebound to turn into a lasting reversal. An ADX of 38.24 indicating a strong trend suggests that oversold signals may be misleading for early buying. Similarly, Sasa Polyester (SASA) maintains its weak outlook with RSI 31.76 and r=-0.56, while Ereğli Demir Çelik (EREGL) continues to diverge negatively within the metals group with r=-0.77 and RSI 42.47. In this picture, TR Anadolu Metal (TRMET), which diverges positively with a daily gain of +0.71% and a 60-day gain of +4.2% despite its overall signal of STRONG SELL, stands out as the most technically resilient stock in the metals group; however, the WT=SELL signal and RSI of 44.05 indicate that this resilience may remain limited.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

In the Fundamental Analysis section, only two companies have current assets included in the data set related to balance sheet structures. Although this limited data does not allow for a comprehensive ratio comparison, it reveals a significant divergence on the liquidity side. Tüpraş's current assets of 439.48 billion TRY are clearly above Aselsan's 248.77 billion TRY. While this difference is a natural result of sectoral dynamics, it indicates that Tüpraş's capacity to meet short-term liabilities is supported by a relatively larger liquidity buffer. It is assessed that this buffer, especially against price fluctuations in the energy sector, may contribute to the company maintaining its operational flexibility.

On the Aselsan side, the current asset figure of 248.77 billion TRY should be monitored in terms of the company's ability to finance its growth investments, given the project-based and long-term cash cycle in the defense industry. Since the data set does not include the companies' profitability figures, total debt ratios, or equity sizes, a numerical assessment of profitability and leverage structure is not possible with today's data. Therefore, investors should focus not only on liquidity size but also on sectoral margin dynamics and the periodic financials the companies will announce in their decision-making processes.

The current data limitation prevents a direct ratio-based comparison of the two companies. However, when considered together with today's market theme, it can be said that Tüpraş's strong liquidity structure is one of the factors supporting the positive divergence in the energy group. For Aselsan, the size of current assets stands out as an indicator to be followed in terms of the course of defense spending and the financing needs of the order book. A deeper analysis of both companies' balance sheet items will only be possible with the provision of complete financial statement data.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

BIST 30 is trading at 14.942.97, 0.47% below the previous close of 15.013.83; the index has also slipped below the 15.000 psychological threshold defended in recent sessions. The real extent of the risk comes from the breadth of the technical screen: 17 of the 30 codes carry STRONG SELL signals and 11 carry SELL signals, while TUPRS is the only name capable of generating an overall BUY. The backbone of the selling is in banking (YKBNK -3.61%, AKBNK -2.82%, ISCTR -1.93%, GARAN -1.85%) and aviation (PGSUS -1.61%, TAVHL -1.45%, THYAO -1.14%); trend correlations in these codes are negative and tending to deepen (THYAO -0.88, PGSUS -0.82). The downside scenario is based on the possibility that if support in the 14.942 region fails to hold, selling may spread more broadly to sectors outside energy and gain momentum toward the 14.800 support zone tracked at the end of September; in this condition, losses in codes with an overall STRONG SELL signal and clearly negative correlation (MGROS -0.91, THYAO -0.88, AEFES -0.82) are likely to exceed the index. The first condition that invalidates the scenario is the index reclaiming 15.013.83 on strong volume and the number of SELL-direction signals falling clearly below 28.

The upside scenario is built on a partial recovery driven by energy: TUPRS is the strongest code of the day with +2.50%; despite short-term HOLD, it has the most solid trend in the screened universe with medium/long-term BUY, WT=BUY, r=0.83, and a narrow 16% channel structure. PETKM could be the second leg with +1.99%, WT=BUY, and 40% channel potential; however, its overall signal remaining SELL indicates that positioning in this code should be selective and limited. Additionally, ASTOR's decline to RSI 30.49 increases the probability of a technical rebound in codes such as SASA (31.76) and TRALT (32.05); however, the overall signals in these codes being STRONG SELL indicates that possible rebounds should be read not as buying opportunities but as windows for reducing positions. On the currency front, there appears to be no trigger for the scenario: USD/TRY is nearly flat at 49.21 (+0.03%). Still, the dollar-based loss (-0.50%) remaining slightly above the TRY-based loss (-0.47%) shows that in unhedged positions, the daily return difference works slightly against the investor.

The portfolio shield should be constructed in three layers. First, liquidity: under broad-based SELL pressure, maintaining a cash/liquid buffer against forced selling risk is essential; it is appropriate to define the cash allocation flexibly so that it increases if the downside scenario deepens, and is maintained at current levels if the index recovers above 15.013.83 and the signal distribution turns to BUY. Second, position discipline: no new buying in MGROS, THYAO, PGSUS, SASA, and AEFES, which have overall STRONG SELL signals and clearly negative correlation; in banking, it is recommended not to increase weight in YKBNK and GARAN until the contradiction of overall SELL despite WT=BUY is resolved. VAKBN, being the only NEUTRAL code in the sector and carrying the contradiction of WT=SELL with medium/long-term BUY, should be monitored as a barometer for the direction of the banking leg. Third, trend confirmation: in TUPRS, which constitutes the main weight of the model, the WT signal turning from BUY or the deterioration of the r=0.83 structure will be the first warning that the energy-led recovery scenario has been invalidated; in this condition, equity exposure should be gradually reduced, but as long as the index holds its support zone, there is no justification for broad-based risk avoidance.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

Today's signal distribution requires the model portfolio to be managed with a high-cash, single-focus construction: while TUPRS is the only stock with an overall BUY signal in the technical screen, 17 stocks carry an overall STRONG SELL; together with 19 stocks with STRONG SELL recommendations on the oscillator side, 24 different instruments are under selling pressure. Therefore, the model allocates limited weight to the single stock with the strongest signal alignment and keeps the remaining portion in cash. Among today's notable stocks, PETKM's WT=BUY signal and 40% channel potential are noteworthy, but its overall signal being SELL and the oscillator recommendation being NEUTRAL do not warrant opening a position; similarly, ASTOR (RSI 30.49), which carries an oversold reading, is not included in the portfolio due to its overall STRONG SELL signal. In banking, the absence of positions in YKBNK, which gives an overall SELL signal despite WT=BUY, and in THYAO, whose trend has deteriorated with an overall STRONG SELL and r=-0.88, aligns with the position-reduction recommendation in today's theme.