Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of Friday, October 9, 2026, at 07:51 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 15.137.57; previous close 15.013.83 (daily +0.82%); dollar-based daily performance +0.58%. The difference between the index's TL-based return and its dollar-based return stems from USD/TRY rising +0.24% to 49.33 on the same day. This shows that most of the rally was driven by local demand, while the exchange rate movement trimmed the return to a limited extent. After the selling pressure that occurred at the previous close of 14.942.97, the index's move above the 15.000 psychological support can be read as a short-term recovery attempt; however, the sustainability of this move depends on whether broad participation is achieved.

The positive divergence in today's theme points to a clear rotation on a sectoral basis. While selling pressure in banking stocks persists (YKBNK -2.57% is the weakest bank and carries a SELL signal), the recovery in energy and metal commodities stands out as the main force carrying the index. TUPRS gives the strongest BUY signal with +3.29%, while TRMET +3.40% and PETKM +2.69% show that this group is in expanding momentum with their daily gains. This picture confirms that the "rotation from banking/aviation to energy-petrochemicals" forecast highlighted in the October 8 report remains valid today. ASTOR achieving the highest daily return with +6.81% and giving a WT=BOTTOM BUY signal indicates that a short-term reaction buying has begun in oversold stocks; however, as long as the fundamental weakness persists, this move should be considered a speculative correction.

The critical point in terms of the transmission mechanism is whether the index's close at 15.137 can remain permanently above the 15.000 support. In the main scenario, as long as this resistance is maintained, the 15.250 target can come to the agenda; however, the expansion of SELL signals in banking stocks and the negative divergence in YKBNK carry the risk that energy and the metal group alone cannot carry the index's rise. Therefore, in a possible pullback below the 15.137 level, a move toward the 14.900 support led by banking would confirm that the positive divergence is fragile. Although the limited increase on the currency side (+0.24%) supports selective optimism in TL assets, the course of USD/TRY at 49.33 reminds us that exchange rate risk has not completely disappeared.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

September CPI data came in at 1.84% monthly, below the market expectation (2.3%), bringing annual inflation down to 29.73% (previous 31.51%); PPI also fell to 27.38% annually (previous 27.95%) with a monthly 2.07%. While these figures confirm the CBRT's determination to maintain the 37% policy rate, they deepen positive real rates; the slight decline in deposit rates to 43.3% (previous 43.79%) and the slowdown in loan growth to 36.32% annually (previous 36.60%) show that demand-side tightening continues. While this environment maintains net interest margin (NIM) pressure in banking (YKBNK's sell signal is consistent with this dynamic), the high real cost of credit weighs on the working capital financing costs of industrial and retail companies (MGROS, BIMAS); if inflation shows stickiness in the services subgroup, interest rate cut expectations will not be postponed.

While the current account balance turned to a surplus of 36 million dollars in July (previous -4.33 billion dollars), September exports rose to 25.98 billion dollars, recording one of the highest levels of the year; imports remained at 31.21 billion dollars, keeping the trade deficit relatively stable at 5.23 billion dollars. Brent oil's 3.36% rise to 103.57 dollars poses a risk factor that will strain the energy import bill and could reverse the current account surplus trend; USD/TRY's relatively calm course at 49,2085 with a 0,026% increase indicates that the Central Bank can keep exchange rate pressure under control through reserve management and portfolio inflows. However, the 0.11% decline in DXY (102.12) and gold's rise to 4.159 dollars per ounce remind us of the fragility of global risk appetite; if oil remains persistently above 100 dollars, the current account imbalance could come back to the agenda and damage selective optimism in TL assets.

On the global macro front, the ECB keeping its policy rate at 2.65% and Lagarde's emphasis on "caution against inflation risks," combined with Eurozone core inflation remaining at 2.5%, keeps the "higher for longer" narrative alive; on the US side, August core PCE at 3.0%, NFP falling to 29 thousand people below expectations (90 thousand), and the consumer confidence index collapsing to 81.9 (previous 88.6) cloud the Fed's easing roadmap. The US 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.99% and VIX rising 2.18% (15.41) show that uncertainty in developed markets is being priced in. BIST 30's dollar-based 4% return reflects selective foreign buying with the combination of tight local monetary policy and current account imbalance improvement; however, since EM portfolio flows could reverse if Fed rate projections (4.1% by end-2026) are revised upward or US unemployment remains persistently above 4.2%, the index's 15.137 resistance remains critical.

In the news flow, FTSE Russell maintaining Turkey's status and ASELSAN's contract wins of 195 million dollars and 488.5 million euros provide positive divergence in terms of foreign institutional interest and defense industry cash flow visibility; while the fuel price hike agenda in retail (new debates after the October 1 implementation) supports margin improvement expectations in refinery stocks such as TUPRS and PETKM (consistent with WT=BUY signals), the weekly deposit loss and loan growth news in the banking sector highlights the sector's growth-margin trade-off. Although THY carrying 9 million passengers in September shows operational strength, the directional rise in oil prices and profit-taking pressure (the emphasis of the plan), combined with RSI <43 levels in aviation stocks (THYAO, PGSUS), feed technical selling pressure; therefore, a sectoral rotation balancing the positive divergence in energy and metals (TRMET) with the negative divergence in banking and aviation is driving the market.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

At the center of the technical divergence is Tüpraş (TUPRS): The stock rose +3.29% daily to 392.25 TL, extending its 60-day gain to +39.5%; although the model says HOLD in the short term, it produces BUY in the medium and long term, WT=BUY, and the overall signal is again BUY. The 18% position in the channel indicates that the rally comes from the lower-middle region of the band; the high positive correlation of r=0.83 shows that the signal is strongly aligned with the trend direction. The oscillator front reads in the same direction: BUY recommendation with a 15 buy / 5 sell / 8 neutral distribution, RSI 51.29 showing non-overbought momentum, and ADX 30.31 showing clarified trend strength; in contrast, MACD -0.09 and CCI -44.19 point to a short-term resting zone, while StochK 29.87 indicates reaction potential from a pullback within the trend. This structure supports the scenario of gradual participation on declines; a rapid retreat of the channel position from 18% and the short-term label turning to SELL would invalidate the scenario.

Vakıfbank (VAKBN) continues to carry medium and long-term BUY on the banking side: The flat course at 33.66 TL with a daily -0.06%, when read together with WT=BUY and the overall BUY signal, carries the quality of a base zone attempt; channel position 29%, r=0.75, oscillator 13 buy / 6 sell / 9 neutral with BUY, MACD +0.16 positive, RSI 50.91 balanced. However, since ADX 13.93 shows that trend strength is still weak, the signal gains meaning only if the short term also turns positive. The recovery on the energy and metal front is not yet confirmed: Petkim (PETKM) rose +2.69% to 20.64 TL while its +7.22% gain over the last 5 days and WT=BUY stand out; but with short-term HOLD, medium-term SELL, and overall SELL remaining, RSI 49.45 and ADX 12.79 show that the move has not yet turned into a trend. TR Anadolu Metal (TRMET) carries long-term BUY and WT=BUY at 130.8 TL with +3.40%, but the overall signal is NEUTRAL; RSI 47.68, StochK 26.64, and CCI -56.82 describe an attempt to turn from the low zone, while r=0.29 explains the weakness of signal confidence alignment. TAV Airports (TAVHL), on the other hand, contributes to positive divergence with BUY in the short term and WT, and a BUY recommendation in the oscillator with 14 buy / 4 sell (RSI 54.27, MACD +0.14); however, the channel position exceeding 65% at 275.75 TL and StochK 70.1 remind us that the rally is maturing, and r=0.02 that the move does not match the index direction.

Astor Enerji (ASTOR) produced the day's highest return of +6.81% at 197.5 TL; however, the WT=BOTTOM BUY signal conflicts with the short and medium term being SELL, the overall signal being SELL, and the oscillator giving STRONG SELL with 2 buy / 17 sell. RSI 34.52, MACD -27.74, ADX 38.02, and the -36.8% loss over 60 days point to the probability of a reaction sale rather than a permanent bottom within a strong downtrend; the 19% channel position indicates there is still ample room below; the stock is suitable not for positioning but for monitoring the sustainability of the reaction. BİM (BIMAS) presents a contradictory but noteworthy picture: In the stock returning to 401.00 TL with +1.71%, short-term, WT, and overall signals are SELL, long-term BUY; the channel position has exceeded below the band at -2%, StochK 8.8 and CCI -158.37 point to the extreme of oversold, and the -1.72% over the last 5 days points to the currency of the pressure. Without the price returning into the channel and the short term rising to HOLD, the intraday recovery alone should not be considered a buying reason.

The backbone of the selling is again the banks: Yapı Kredi (YKBNK) is down -2.57% to 35.66 TL; although the general and medium-long term signals are SELL, WT=BUY persisting and StochK at 71.45 point to an internal divergence (oscillator 5 buy / 14 sell with SELL). Akbank (AKBNK), at 68.15 TL with -1.59%, is SELL across all three timeframes, WT=SELL, general STRONG SELL and a 1 buy / 19 sell distribution, forming the clearest sell structure of the day; channel position 13%, RSI 44.29 and CCI -72.18 are sell-oriented. In aviation and retail, the trio with RSI below 43 — Türk Hava Yolları 42.71, Migros 38.66, Pegasus 35.04 — maintains the depth of the pressure: in Türk Hava Yolları, MACD at -3.25 with ADX 30.09 describes a trended decline, in Migros, MACD -12.7 and ADX 34.63 with a -20.1% sharp weakening over 60 days, in Pegasus, channel 10%, StochK 12.97 and CCI -143.67 describe a position near the bottom but unconfirmed. When relatively high channel positions in Migros and Türk Hava Yolları (64% and 52%) combine with deeply negative r values (-0.91 and -0.88 respectively), the conclusion emerges that rallies within the downtrend carry a correction character and resistance tests should be monitored as selling opportunities. On the metals side, Ereğli Demir Çelik's STRONG SELL signal (RSI 44.53, channel 62%, r=-0.77), compared with TR Anadolu Metal's long-term BUY, shows that intra-group breadth is still narrow.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

In the energy and petrochemical segment, TUPRS's current asset size of 439.5 billion TL reflects the high operational volume and cash conversion speed, while PETKM's level of 41.7 billion TL offers a reference point for monitoring how sectoral margin improvement may reflect on balance sheet dynamics. TRMET's current asset structure of 25.5 billion TL demonstrates the flexibility of working capital management during the recovery process in metal prices. The technical buy signals of these three stocks (WT=BUY) and the +39.5% momentum in TUPRS over 60 days strengthen the expectation of profitability improvement supported by the liquidity buffer in the fundamental data.

In aviation and retail, THYAO's current asset items of 512.2 billion TL and MGROS's 88.4 billion TL contextualize the profit realization risk created by high operational leverage in terms of balance sheet size. In THYAO, fuel costs and FX position, and in MGROS, selectivity in consumer spending stand out as the main factors pressuring the turnover speed and margin structure of this asset base. PGSUS's level of 91.4 billion TL and BIMAS's 152.4 billion TL similarly will be tested through cash and inventory positions in the balance sheet structure against revenue-side slowdown signals (RSI <43, strong sell pressure).

In banking, YKBNK's daily performance of -2.57% and SELL signal do not allow an in-depth ratio-based comparison because current asset data for the bank items in the fundamental data (AKBNK, GARAN, ISCTR, VAKBNK, YKBNK) are not provided; however, VAKBN technically giving a medium/long-term BUY signal indicates that the market views the relevant bank's asset quality or profit margins relatively more favorably. In the holding structure, massive current asset inventories such as KCHOL (3.6 trillion TL) and SAHOL (2.8 trillion TL) constitute the index's weight carriers in terms of portfolio effect and cash generation capacity; however, this size alone cannot serve as a valuation criterion without detailed analysis of consolidated margins and borrowing structures.

In summary; the current fundamental data set offers only a liquidity/operational volume perspective and, due to the lack of profitability ratios (EBITDA margin, net profit margin, ROE) and leverage metrics (Net Debt/EBITDA, Current Ratio), prevents a full valuation. Therefore, while the positive price action in the energy/metal group serves as confirmation for the margin improvement hypothesis; technical weakness in aviation/retail shows that profit realization risk persists despite the high asset base in the fundamental data. In banking, the technical strength of the VAKBN/TUPRS pair increases the likelihood that these stocks sit at the intersection of "quality growth / reasonable valuation" once access to fundamental data is provided.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

The index closing the day at 15.137.57 with +0.82% and being able to hold this close as a short-term pivot is the fundamental condition for the validity of the main scenario and for progress toward the first target of the 15.250 resistance. The backbone of the rally is the energy–petrochemical leg: TUPRS, with a general=BUY signal (RSI 51.29, ADX 30.31, +39.5% over 60 days), is the candidate with the highest trend strength, while VAKBN is the exception within banking with a 13 BUY/6 SELL distribution on the oscillator side. In contrast, the base remains narrow: in 26 of the 30 codes, the general signal is SELL or STRONG SELL, while BUY signals appear in only these two codes. This structure shows that the 15.250 target can only be tested by staying above 15.137.57 and with broadening participation; the invalidation condition of the main scenario is the index closing below 15.137.57 and the daily gain in TUPRS being given back.

The downside scenario is a pullback to the 14.900 support led by banking, and today's data keeps this possibility alive: YKBNK at -2.57% is the weakest link in the sector with a general SELL signal; AKBNK at -1.59% is STRONG SELL with limited upside room at channel 13%; GARAN -1.08% (STRONG SELL) and ISCTR -1.39% (-8.6% over 60 days) show that pressure persists across the sector. Aviation and retail also create burden in the same direction: THYAO with RSI 42.71 and r=-0.88, PGSUS with RSI 35.04, and MGROS with RSI 38.66, ADX 34.63 and r=-0.91 are among the strongest examples of the downtrend. Losing the 15.000 psychological threshold on a daily close would bring this scenario to the forefront. On the FX side, USD/TRY has risen +0.24% to 49.33, and the dollar-based index return has declined to +0.58%; if the exchange rate gains momentum above 49.33, it could erode the TL-based gain and accelerate selling. It should be remembered that the +6.81% jump in ASTOR (RSI 34.52, ADX 38.02, -36.8% over 60 days) is a reaction within a strong downtrend; such oversold reversals should not be used as a buying rationale in the downside scenario.

Portfolio shields should be established within the following framework: it is recommended not to open new positions in codes with general SELL/STRONG SELL signals, to continue gradual reductions especially in MGROS, THYAO and AKBNK positions, and not to average down at low prices in this group. Additions to TUPRS and VAKBN should be limited to gradual and close-confirmed entries; since channel data (TUPRS 18%, VAKBN 29%) show TUPRS is closer to the upper band, the addition weight is more defensible on the VAKBN side. Although BIMAS realized +1.71%, caution should be maintained in the retail leg as it is testing resistance at the upper band with channel %-2 and WT=SELL; ASTOR should be kept on watch only for speculative reaction monitoring and does not constitute a rationale for position enlargement. Against FX risk, portfolio beta should be reduced if USD/TRY persists above 49.33. The cash/liquidity buffer should be held within the weight defined in the NAKİT line of the model portfolio and in line with it; this section does not additionally recommend a cash ratio. The cancellation condition of the downside scenario is general signals in banking turning from SELL to NEUTRAL/BUY and technicals broadening as in the TAVHL example (short-term BUY, oscillator 14 BUY/4 SELL).

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

In today's scan, only 2 of the 30 stocks (TUPRS and VAKBN) carry a general BUY signal while 26 stocks are in the SELL or STRONG SELL zone; this asymmetry forms the basis of the model portfolio's defensive construction. TRMET and TAVHL with general NEUTRAL signals, and EKGYO and TCELL, which show general SELL in the technical scan but carry a BUY recommendation on the oscillator side, were excluded due to signal conflict. The WT=DİPTE AL signal in ASTOR was kept only on the watch list because it conflicts with the general SELL outlook, the STRONG SELL recommendation on the oscillator (2 BUY/17 SELL/9 neutral), MACD -27.74 and r=-0.66 values. Weights were determined according to signal strength, Pearson correlation (r) and position within the channel: TUPRS receives the highest share because it has the highest trend consistency in the scan with r=0.83, a lower position of 18% in the channel, an established trend with ADX 30.31, and daily +3.29% as well as 60-day +39.5% momentum; VAKBN is kept at a lower weight due to more moderate indicators such as r=0.75, channel 29% and ADX 13.93. The remaining 70% cash serves as a risk buffer as long as the sell-weighted signal breadth persists.