Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of October 12, 2026, at 07:22 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 15.145.27; previous close 15.137.57 (daily %+0.05); daily performance in dollar terms %+0.03. The index's flat course in TL terms is almost exactly mirrored in dollar terms; the stability of USD/TRY at 49.33 (%+0.02) supports this picture. XU100's notably better performance than XU030 with %+0.43 on the same day indicates that the return is concentrated in mid and small-cap stocks rather than the index's weight center. This divergence supports a market reading where trading volume has shifted to selective stocks, and within BIST 30, banking and the metals group stand out.

Data-to-Sector Transfer Mechanism

Despite XU030 remaining flat, XU100's relatively strong stance shows that selling pressure across the index is concentrated in holdings, while buying appetite is gathered in banking and metal stocks. VAKBN being the only bank stock giving a "Strong BUY" signal in both technical screening and oscillators reveals that the divergence within the sector is stock-based rather than general to banking. TRMET's daily rise of 4.97% and the highest "Strong BUY" vote in oscillators confirm that momentum in the metals group is running well above the index average. In contrast, SAHOL's 5.92% decline and "Strong SELL" signal show that selling pressure in holdings is consistent with fundamental and technical indicators. TUPRS's 60-day return of 35.9% reminds that the medium-long-term trend in the energy group is still strong, but the risk of profit-taking at these levels has increased.

Sector Impact and Risk Transmission

The flat course on the exchange rate side not creating additional pressure on TL assets allows internal dynamics to remain in the foreground; in this environment, the positive divergence in banking and metal stocks contributes to the index holding in the 15.100-15.200 band. However, the continuation of selling pressure in stocks with low channel percentage (BIMAS, KCHOL) keeps alive the possibility of a break below this band. A selling wave that could form led by SAHOL and AKBNK could pull the index below the 15.000 level; in this scenario, whether the strong signals in VAKBN and TRMET can be maintained will be decisive for the portfolio's risk balance.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

On the Turkish side, the improvement on the inflation front is today's most decisive input for investor psychology. September annual inflation came in at 29.73%, below both the forecast (30.3%) and the previous month (31.51%), while the decline in annual PPI increase to 27.38% shows that a second cost-driven wave is for now suppressed. This picture supports the real interest rate remaining in positive territory in an environment where the policy rate is held at 37.0%; however, the increase in consumer loan interest rates (64.74%) and the slowdown in credit growth (36.32%) indicate that tightening is gradually curbing domestic demand. Although a positive ground is formed for banking stocks on the net interest margin side, the slowdown in credit volume growth stands out as the main factor limiting this optimism.

The flat course on the exchange rate side reduces exchange rate-induced pressure on TL assets. USD/TRY's decline to 49.08 and EUR/TRY's fall to 55.21 allow internal dynamics to come to the fore in an environment of low exchange rate volatility. The real effective exchange rate continuing its strengthening trend at 105.45 relatively eases imported input costs while potentially having an eroding effect on the competitiveness of exporting companies. In this context, the monthly contraction in industrial production (-1.0%) and the negative trend in annual production show that the stabilization in the exchange rate has not yet positively reflected in export volume; this reveals that the strong signals in metal and energy stocks are sector-specific and do not confirm the general industrial outlook.

On the global side, the rise in commodity prices creates a supportive ground for metal and energy stocks within BIST 30. The 1.43% increase in gold's ounce price and Brent oil holding at 104.72 USD/barrel draw a consistent picture between the positive technical signals in stocks like TRMET and TUPRS and macro data. However, the data confusion on the US side (manufacturing PMI declining to 54.5, non-farm payrolls coming in at 29 thousand, well below expectations) keeps global growth concerns alive; this carries the risk that weakness in external demand will be reflected in the sales revenues of Turkish exporting companies. In the Eurozone, inflation rising to 3.8% and PPI jumping to 8.2% could delay the European Central Bank's rate cut expectations; this requires close monitoring of demand conditions in Turkey's main export market.

In the news flow, ASELSAN's 195 million dollar contract stands out as the most concrete example of company-specific positive divergence in the defense industry. In contrast, the draft law on investment funds being submitted to the Turkish Grand National Assembly and the tightening in tax audits can be considered regulatory elements limiting market participants' risk appetite. Although macro data generally draw a positive framework through the decline in inflation and stability in the exchange rate, weakness in industrial production and the slowdown in credit growth stand as the main stabilizers supporting the index's flat course. This outlook reveals that for the sustainability of selective strong signals in banking and energy stocks, recovery in credit volumes and momentum in industrial production are needed.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

VAKBN and TRMET: Two names diverging in signal screening

At the intersection of technical screening and oscillator votes, two stocks stand out. Vakıfbank (VAKBN) is the only bank stock giving a "Strong BUY" signal in the general screening; all short, medium and long-term moving averages are in the BUY direction, and the Williams %R indicator also supports this view. In the TradingView oscillator vote, the stock is in the "Strong BUY" zone with 18 buy, 2 sell and 8 neutral votes, with RSI at 52.04 at the upper limit of the neutral zone and MACD at 0.17 on the positive side. Its channel position is at 32% and its 60-day return is 9.3%; this shows that the stock is still at an early stage within the trend and that upside potential is preserved. TR Anadolu Metal (TRMET), on the other hand, is the fastest-moving stock with a daily rise of 4.97%; it has the same strength as VAKBN with 18 buy votes in the oscillator vote. RSI is in the buy zone at 54.02, CCI20 is positive at 46.4; however, trend strength is still weak with ADX at 18.67. Its channel position is at the midpoint with 52% and its 60-day return is 14.7%; this indicates that the move is part of a medium-term recovery rather than momentum.

TUPRS: The representative of the trend, behind the momentum

Tüpraş (TUPRS) is the stock with the strongest medium-long term trend in the index with a 60-day return of 35.9%. Its general screening note is "BUY" and all moving averages except the short term are in the BUY direction; Williams %R also gives a BUY signal. However, remaining in the "NEUTRAL" zone in the oscillator vote with 10 buy, 9 sell and 9 neutral votes shows that short-term momentum lags behind the trend. RSI is neutral at 48.64, CCI20 is close to the sell zone at -57.05; ADX at 29.59 confirms that the trend is strong but losing speed. Its channel position is in the lower zone at 14%; this shows that the stock is experiencing a pullback within the current trend and that the 386.25 TL level should be monitored as a critical support for the continuation of the medium-term rise.

SAHOL and THYAO: Two different dimensions of selling pressure

Sabancı Holding (SAHOL) is the weakest link in the index with a daily decline of 5.92%; both the general screening and oscillator votes show a "Strong SELL" signal. RSI is in the sell zone at 37.47, CCI20 is close to the oversold level at -120.05; ADX at 35.99 confirms that the downtrend is strong. Its channel position has moved outside the lower band of the channel at -2%; this indicates that selling pressure has gone beyond technical supports. Türk Hava Yolları (THYAO), on the other hand, paints a different picture: Although the general screening note is "Strong SELL", the StochK indicator has approached the oversold zone at 18.62. RSI is in the sell zone at 45.83 and CCI20 at -35.72; however, the downtrend is strong with ADX at 30.46. Its channel position is at a relatively high level with 66%; this shows that the stock has pulled back from the upper zone of the channel and that below the 287.50 TL level, a reversal signal from the StochK indicator will be awaited for a short-term recovery.

General outlook: Selectivity overlaps with technical signals

The divergence in the technical screening confirms that stock-specific movements are decisive despite the index's horizontal course. The fact that all stocks in banking other than VAKBN (AKBNK, ISCTR, YKBNK) give a "Strong SELL" signal shows that the recovery is stock-specific rather than sector-wide. On the holding side, the channel positions of SAHOL and KCHOL at -2% and 4% respectively show that selling pressure has reached the lower bands of the channel; however, the oversold levels in the oscillators (SAHOL CCI20 -120.05; KCHOL CCI20 -101.57) may prepare the ground for a short-term reaction buying. The fact that general screening notes remain predominantly in the SELL zone in stocks other than TRMET and VAKBN indicates that these two stocks could lead the upward movement in the scenario where the index fluctuates in the 15.100-15.200 band.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

Stands Out on Profitability Expectations for Banking and Energy

Fundamental data paints a picture that largely overlaps with technical signals.VAKBN, Because its current assets are above the sector average at 1.249.31 billion TL and it is the only bank stock giving a strong BUY signal, it presents a relatively solid outlook in terms of balance sheet size and liquidity. The positive course of profitability expectations in the banking sector supports this stock standing out in fundamental analysis as well. On the other hand,TUPRS' Its 439.48 billion TRY in current assets and 35.9% return over 60 days show that the strong medium-to-long-term trend in the energy sector is also supported by balance sheet size. These two stocks can be considered as items that positively diverge within the index from both technical and fundamental perspectives.

In holdings, balance sheet size does not prevent selling pressure

SAHOL' Despite being the second company with the highest current assets at 2.790.07 billion TRY, its daily decline of 5.92% giving a "Strong SELL" signal reveals that balance sheet size alone is not enough to sustain price performance. Similarly, KCHOL' Having the highest current assets at 3.615.15 billion TRY, the channel percentage remaining low, and the continuation of selling pressure indicate that the weakness in profitability expectations in holding companies overshadows balance sheet size. This picture shows that the current selling pressure in holdings is fueled by fundamental dynamics, and therefore technical signals may continue to be the primary determinant in the short term.

Liquidity and Profitability Balance: A Selective Approach Is Needed

When comparing current asset sizes, THYAO ( 512.19 billion TL) and AKBNK ( 1.249.31 billion TL) companies with high liquidity, approaching oversold territory in oscillators, THYAO as in the example, may be considered to carry short-term recovery potential. However, BIMAS ( 152.41 billion TL) and SISE ( In companies with relatively lower current assets, such as 151.30 billion TL, the weak channel percentage shows that balance sheet size is insufficient to provide price support for these stocks. Since the current dataset does not include companies' net profit or sales figures, profitability assessment can only be made through balance sheet size and price movements; therefore, technical signals and sectoral expectations should be prioritized in investment decisions.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

Main Scenario (High Probability): The index is expected to fluctuate in the 15.100-15.200 band. The dollar-based sideways movement of XU030 (+0.03%) and the stability in USD/TRY (49.33) do not create additional currency-related pressure on TL assets. In this environment, the continuation of the positive divergence in stocks with strong signals such as VAKBN and TRMET will be the main balancing element keeping the index within this band. However, the weak overall outlook in the technical scan ("STRONG SELL" signals in BIMAS, KCHOL, SAHOL, and AKBNK) and the shift of trading volume to selective stocks limit the index's upward movement.

Downside Risk Scenario: SAHOL's daily decline of 5.92% and the "STRONG SELL" votes in oscillators (19 sell/1 buy) indicate that selling pressure in holding and banking stocks continues. The "STRONG SELL" signals in AKBNK and ISCTR are particularly critical due to the weight of these two sectors on the index. The expansion of the selling wave in these stocks could pull the index below the 15.000 psychological support. Against this scenario, it is recommended to maintain the cash ratio in the portfolio and reduce positions in holding/bank stocks with weak signals.

Upside Scenario and Portfolio Shield: The continuation of "STRONG BUY" signals in VAKBN and TRMET and the preservation of the strong trend exhibited by TUPRS with a 60-day return of 35.9% could enable the index to rise above the 15.200 resistance. In this case, returns are obtained from the VAKBN and TRMET weights in the model portfolio, while TUPRS should be maintained as a trend follower. However, the validity of this optimistic scenario depends on a possible technical recovery in stocks such as THYAO (StochK=18.62) and PGSUS (StochK=7.13), which are approaching the oversold zone in oscillators, turning into broad participation. Therefore, the cash/liquidity buffer in the portfolio should be kept flexible both to protect against downside risks and to take new positions in a possible recovery.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

The model portfolio has been constructed based on the signal strength in today's technical scan and oscillator data, the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), and channel position. VAKBN and TRMET, which give strong BUY signals, and TUPRS, which has a strong medium-to-long-term trend, have been weighted; stocks with SELL and STRONG SELL signals have not been included in the portfolio. The CASH ratio has been kept at a defensive level due to the weak technical outlook across the index and the holding-heavy picture in selling pressure.