Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of October 14, 2026, Wednesday, at 07:22 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 15.191.57; previous close 15.001.28 (daily +1.27%); daily performance in dollar terms +1.17%. USD/TRY is at 49.39, showing a slight depreciation of +0.09% compared to the previous close, while the index's TL-based rise remaining positive even after stripping out the exchange rate effect indicates that local buying power is absorbing the currency pressure. XU030's clear outperformance (+1.27%) relative to XU100 (+0.82%) suggests that the index's weight center has shifted toward large bank stocks, and the heavy buying pressure in these stocks is pulling the index upward; a "selective rally" structure prevails, with broad market participation (weak performance of the broad index) remaining limited.

In this transmission mechanism, the main dynamics are: the exchange rate moving sideways in the 49.30-49.40 band while risk appetite is supported, foreign-origin selling pressure declining, and local institutional/portfolio managers turning to banking-heavy position buying. The locomotive role of the banking index is fueled by net interest margin (NIM) improvement expectations and scenarios of relative easing in deposit costs; meanwhile, technical buy signals in energy (TUPRS, PETKM) and BIM (BIMAS) stocks indicate that sectoral rotation has also spread beyond banking. The dollar-based return tracking the TL return (+1.17% vs +1.27%) reveals that the currency risk premium remains low, foreign investors are in a "wait-and-see" mode, and local liquidity is steering the market.

From a risk transmission perspective; the index approaching the 15.200 psychological resistance, if combined with short-term overbought conditions in banking stocks (VAKBN, YKBNK), could trigger profit-taking. The persistence of selling pressure in the broad market (weakness in low-beta/defensive stocks such as SASA, MGROS) weakens the index's non-banking legs and makes the sustainability of the rally "selective". In a scenario where the exchange rate breaks above 49.50, the current low-volatility environment would deteriorate, and dollar-based returns could fall below TL returns, accelerating foreign outflows; therefore, position sizes should be kept disciplined until the 15.200 resistance is tested, and stop-loss levels in banking stocks should be moved below the 20-day moving average.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

Macro Outlook and News Flow

Inflation and Interest Rates: In Turkey, September inflation came in at 1.84% monthly, below expectations (2.3%), while annual inflation declined to 29.73%, maintaining its downward trend. PPI at 27.38% annually, remaining below CPI, indicates that producer cost pressures are easing. This picture supports the policy rate being held at 37.0%, keeping real interest rates in positive territory; however, the rise in consumer loan rates to 64.74% shows that tightness in the credit channel continues to constrain domestic demand. The sustainability of the strong trend in banking stocks depends on the extent to which this rigidity in loan pricing will support the net interest margin, despite the sideways movement in deposit costs.

Exchange Rate and External Balance: The sideways movement of USD/TRY at 49.34 keeps currency volatility low despite the weekly decline in foreign exchange reserves ($60.33 billion). The current account balance approaching equilibrium at $0,036 billion in July and September exports rising to $25.98 billion confirm that the improvement in the trade deficit continues. This outlook justifies BIST 30's positive divergence from the broad market, supported by dollar-based returns backing the TL; however, imports remaining significantly higher than exports at $31.21 billion reminds us that the improvement in the external balance is still fragile.

Global Risk Appetite and Commodities: Following attacks on Saudi Arabia, Brent crude holding at $106.46/barrel and WTI rising 1.23% to $94.89/barrel keep inflationary pressure alive through energy costs. In the US, the policy rate remaining at 4.0% and the 30-year Treasury yield declining to 5,563% stand out as factors supporting global risk appetite. In contrast, US September non-farm payrolls coming in at 29 thousand, well below expectations, keeps growth concerns on the agenda; this situation, despite the upward move in oil prices supporting energy stocks like TUPRS, causes selling pressure in the broad market (SASA, MGROS) to persist.

Investor Psychology and Sectoral Reflections: Although consumer confidence rising to 91.9 points and retail sales increasing 1.4% monthly signal a revival in domestic demand, the 1.0% monthly contraction in industrial production confirms weakness on the production side. This contradictory picture causes investors to act selectively and turn toward banking and energy groups with strong earnings expectations. The deepening selling pressure in aviation and automotive stocks is consistent with the cancellation of some flights from Istanbul following the attacks on Saudi Arabia and concerns about global growth; this outlook suggests that the scenario of the index testing the 15.200 resistance could occur under banking leadership, but weakness in the broad market could limit this move.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

Banking stocks continued their role as the locomotive of the index today, while technical indicators point to continued divergence in this group. VAKBN, is the stock giving the strongest BUY signal in both technical screening and oscillators. In the stock with a general signal of "STRONG BUY", TradingView's oscillator vote also points in the same direction with 18 buy / 2 sell. The RSI level of 54.33 and CCI20 approaching the overbought zone at 118.35 indicate that the upward momentum is maintained in the short term, but caution is needed for a possible pause. YKBNK is the other bank stock giving a strong BUY signal with a daily increase of 2.02% and an 18 buy / 1 sell vote in oscillators. The channel position is at 45%, and the price trading near the midpoint of the channel leaves room for upward movement. However, the fact that YKBNK's medium and long-term signals are "WAIT" reminds us that this move may be nothing more than a short-term rally for now.

In the energy group, PETKM, stands out with a daily increase of 2.96% and a 5-day performance of 5.56%. While the 17 buy / 1 sell vote in oscillators gives a "STRONG BUY" signal, the general signal in technical screening being "NEUTRAL" shows that the price movement has not yet been fully confirmed by momentum indicators. The RSI at 51.18 and MACD at -0.25 indicate that the indicators are still in a weak positive zone, but these indicators could strengthen if the rise continues. TUPRS maintains its medium-long term BUY signal with a strong 60-day trend of 26.9%. Although the oscillator vote is "NEUTRAL" (11 buy / 10 sell), the ADX giving a strong trend confirmation at 29.28 is a positive indicator for the sustainability of the current rise.

The technical outlook is negative in aviation and automotive stocks where selling pressure has deepened. THYAO andPGSUS, gives a "STRONG SELL" signal with 3 buy / 17 sell and 4 buy / 18 sell votes in oscillators, respectively. Although PGSUS's RSI at 31.97 and StochK at 2.82 point to the oversold zone, the channel position at 5% and the r value showing a strong negative correlation at -0.82 indicate that the downtrend has not yet been broken. FROTO is also among the stocks with the weakest oscillator outlook with 20 sell votes. The RSI at 37.78 and CCI20 at -118.21 point to the continuation of selling pressure. In this group, for a technical recovery signal, the price first needs to move towards the upper band of the channel and the transition to the buy zone in oscillators needs to be monitored.

On the retail side, BIMAS, became one of the biggest gainers with a daily increase of 3.72%, while its general signal in technical screening is at the "BUY" level. However, the 12 buy / 7 sell balance in the oscillator vote and the RSI remaining in the neutral zone at 49.71 show that this rise is not yet supported by strong momentum. The StochK at 21.61 and CCI20 at -66.24 point to the stock potentially encountering resistance in the short term. Overall, while the selective rise led by banking continues in the index, the selling pressure in aviation, automotive, and some holding stocks confirms that the index is moving with sectoral divergence rather than a broad-based rally.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

Looking at balance sheet structures, the current asset sizes of holding companies stand out in line with the strong outlook of the banking sector. KCHOL's current assets of 3.615.15 billion TL and SAHOL's 2.790.07 billion TL show that these companies have high financial flexibility and provide a broad buffer for potential liquidity needs. This situation increases the capacity of holding companies to benefit from dividends and value increases from their subsidiaries, especially in an environment where the banking rally continues. However, it should also be noted that these sizes alone are not a profitability indicator and should be evaluated together with sectoral dynamics.

In the energy group, TUPRS's current assets of 439.48 billion TL reflect the size of the company's operational scale and its high volume in items such as inventory and trade receivables. This strong balance sheet structure forms a fundamental basis supporting the strong 60-day trend of 26.9% emphasized in the technical section of the report. Although PETKM's current assets of 41.74 billion TL are more modest compared to TUPRS, they point to a liquidity level that allows it to be considered a candidate for positive divergence in the energy group. The current asset structure of both companies can offer medium-term resilience against volatility in energy prices.

On the retail side, BIMAS's current assets of 152.41 billion TL can be read as a fundamental indicator supporting its daily increase of 3.72%. The company's efficiency in inventory and cash management points to a balance sheet structure resilient to fluctuations in consumer spending. In contrast, MGROS's current assets of 88.38 billion TL remain at approximately half of BIMAS's level; this difference shows that the two retailers differ in terms of scale and operational efficiency. While the report's risk scenario mentions that MGROS could create selling pressure, this lower current asset size can be interpreted as the company having a more limited liquidity buffer.

On a day when selling pressure deepened in the aviation and automotive sectors, THYAO's current assets of 512.19 billion TL present a remarkable size. Although this high liquidity increases the company's capacity to cope with operational challenges, it should not be forgotten that sectoral selling pressure can affect pricing independently of fundamental balance sheet strength. Similarly, FROTO's current assets of 238.89 billion TL show that the company maintains its balance sheet strength despite the weak outlook in automotive. PGSUS's current assets of 91.42 billion TL, on the other hand, remain well behind THYAO's, clearly revealing the scale difference between the two airline companies.

From a model portfolio perspective, the recommendation to increase the weights of VAKBN and TUPRS appears consistent with the strong balance sheet structures of these companies. While TUPRS's high current assets fundamentally support the potential for positive divergence in the energy group; VAKBN's leading position in the banking rally increases the likelihood of benefiting from the sector's general liquidity conditions. The recommendation to reduce THYAO and MGROS positions is based on the assessment that, despite both companies' strong balance sheet structures, sectoral selling pressure could overshadow these fundamental indicators in current market dynamics. Therefore, it should be remembered that in position changes, not only balance sheet sizes but also sectoral momentum and technical signals should be monitored together.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

Main Scenario (probability: high): Strong buy signals in banking stocks (VAKBN, YKBNK) and the index's positive divergence in dollar terms support the potential for XU030 to test the 15.200 resistance. For this scenario to be valid, the horizontal course in USD/TRY (49.39) must be maintained and the selling pressure in the broad market (SASA, MGROS) must not spill over into the index. In this case, it is recommended to maintain banking-weighted positions in the portfolio, but to gradually deploy the existing cash buffer (consistent with the CASH weight in section 7) according to risk appetite.

Risk Scenario (probability: medium): The deepening of selling pressure in the broad market and the acceleration of losses in stocks with weak signals, especially SASA (-0.53%) and MGROS (-0.75%), could lead to the index failing to test the 15.200 resistance and giving back current gains. In this scenario, if the strong signals in banking stocks (VAKBN, YKBNK) weaken and the exchange rate rises above the 49.39 level, protection should be provided by increasing the cash ratio in the portfolio. In particular, zeroing out positions in aviation (THYAO, PGSUS) and Ford Otosan (FROTO) stocks carrying STRONG SELL signals will reduce risk.

Protective Shields: Two key tools stand out to protect the portfolio against possible downward movements. First, not carrying positions in stocks giving a STRONG SELL signal (THYAO, PGSUS, FROTO, MGROS) or rapidly reducing existing positions; second, keeping the cash/liquidity ratio high, to be activated if the index fails to break the 15.200 resistance. In this way, both the portfolio value loss is limited in a possible correction arising from selling pressure in the broad market, and funds are reserved for new buying opportunities if strong signals in banking stocks continue.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

The model portfolio is constructed based on the strongest signals in today's technical screening and oscillator data. Short-term BUY signals in banking stocks (VAKBN, YKBNK) and strong oscillator votes are considered the main carrier of positive divergence relative to the index. In the energy group, TUPRS's strong 60-day trend of 26.9% and PETKM's STRONG BUY vote in oscillators offer an opportunity for sectoral diversification. Due to selling pressure in the broad market (SASA, MGROS, THYAO) and weak correlation coefficients, these stocks were not included in the portfolio, and a 12% cash position was maintained to limit risk.