Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 07:22 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 14.221.62; previous close 14.558.43 (daily -2.31%); daily performance in dollar terms -2.40%. While the index's loss in TRY terms was -2.31%, the loss in dollar terms being -2.40% shows that the selling pressure stems from a contraction in local risk appetite independent of exchange rate movements; the flat course in USD/TRY (+0.09%, 49.57) confirms this transmission. The broad-based selling wave is evident in XU100 (-2.49%); this indicates that the decline is not only tied to a few high-weight stocks but points to a risk-off tendency covering mid and small-cap companies.

Transmission Mechanism and Sector Impact

The sectoral spread of selling pressure runs parallel with the concentration of signals in technical indicators: STRONG SELL signals in 28 stocks show that position closing is becoming widespread across the market. In this picture, banking stocks (YKBNK, GARAN) diverge positively with short-term BUY signals and oscillator momentum, while margin pressure stands out in the industrial and retail side; TUPRS's strong 60-day +24.3% trend giving a SELL signal along with today's sharp decline shows that profit-taking is also accelerating in the energy group. Despite the WT=BUY signal in SAHOL, the overall SELL warning and high trend strength with ADX=38.8 indicate that selling pressure in holdings has not yet been exhausted.

Risk and Reaction Potential

The decline of RSIs into the 25-35 band suggests the index is approaching oversold territory and brings the possibility of a short-term technical rebound to the agenda; however, the effort to hold above the 14.200 support keeps alive the risk of selling continuing toward the 14.000 level. The main scenario is a deepening of selling on a close below 14.200; the alternative scenario is that WT=BUY signals in YKBNK and GARAN combine with oversold conditions to trigger selective bargain buying. Therefore, in the current picture, rather than opening new positions, avoiding stocks in the STRONG SELL group (SASA, THYAO, MGROS) and monitoring the resilient outlook in banking and aviation stand out as the priority strategy.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

The US September PPI coming in at 1.3% monthly (estimate 0.5%) and 6.3% annual (estimate 5.3%), well above market expectations, has concretized the Fed's "higher for longer" scenario; while the 5-year bond yield rose to 4.93% and the 30-year to 5.47%, DXY climbed to 101.99. This development pressured portfolio flows entering emerging markets (EM) through tightening global liquidity conditions; foreign selling pressure was decisive in BIST 30's 2.31% decline, showing that risk appetite weakened despite VIX falling 7.75%. If US CPI data again delivers a shock next week, a DXY break above 103 could trigger a test of the 14.000 psychological support in BIST 30.

On the local macro side, September CPI maintaining its downtrend at 1.84% monthly (estimate 2.3%) and 29.73% annual (previous 31.51%) keeps real rates on positive ground; however, the September budget deficit rising to TRY 532.2 billion (previous surplus of TRY 12.9 billion) and August industrial production contracting 1.0% monthly simultaneously point to fiscal discipline risk and real sector weakness. While credit growth slowing to 36.3% annual and deposit rates falling to 43.12% signal net interest margin (NIM) compression in banking, the current account surplus of USD 4.05 billion in August is the only strong anchor preserving exchange rate balance (USD/TRY 49.54). If budget performance also deteriorates in October, currency pressure could return even without the real rate appeal of the TRY being damaged.

The news of SPK Chairman Sütçü's resignation increases regulatory uncertainty, forcing pricing of legal risk premium especially in banking and holding structures (YKBNK, GARAN, SAHOL); the "sell first, ask later" reflex in investor psychology feeds broad-based outflows in line with STRONG SELL signals in 28 stocks and oversold conditions in the RSI 25-35 band. Although the December target for Akkuyu NPP's first reactor and the decline in oil prices (Brent 109.39 USD, WTI 98.46 USD) are positive on the cost side for TAV Airports (TAVHL), geopolitical tension and news of flexibility in Russia sanctions keep oil volatility high. If a new management appointment from SPK and a fiscal discipline signal (e.g., spending cuts) arrive, the technical rebound (WT=BUY signals: YKBNK, GARAN) could gain fundamental support; otherwise, closes below 14.200 could extend selling to 14.000.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

In today's selling wave, despite the overall weakness in the index, Yapı Kredi (bank) ( YKBNK) and Garanti BBVA (bank) ( GARAN) continue to show positive divergence on the banking side. YKBNK is trading at 36.10 TL with a daily gain of +1.12%, while the short-term signal is BUY and WT=BUY. On the oscillator side, the stock has a STRONG BUY vote, with RSI at 51.66 above the neutral zone and StochK at 76.52 maintaining momentum. GARAN, on the other hand, is at 132.50 TL with +0.76%; StochK at 88.63 is approaching the overbought zone. Both stocks have positive 60-day returns (YKBNK +9.7%, GARAN +4.2%) and channel positions at 40% and 60%, respectively. These data indicate that relative resilience against selling pressure in banking continues; however, the high StochK value in GARAN also brings the risk of short-term consolidation.

On the aviation side, TAV Airports ( TAVHL) delivered one of the strongest closes of the day with +1.29%. Its channel position at 67% is notably stronger than most stocks in the index; WT=BUY signal and short-term BUY vote support this outlook. RSI at 53.14 is neutral, and MACD at 0.01 is near the zero line. In contrast, in the same sector, Turkish Airlines ( THYAO) fell to 266.00 TL with -2.74%, remaining in the STRONG SELL zone. In THYAO, RSI is 30.81, CCI20 is -238.91, and ADX is 36.47; this picture simultaneously shows both oversold conditions and a strong downtrend. TAVHL's positive divergence reveals that company-based divergence in aviation is more pronounced than a sector-wide recovery.

Tüpraş (company) ( TUPRS) today experienced a sharp decline of -4.99%, falling to 356.75 TL. Despite its strong 60-day trend of +24.3%, short-term SELL and WT=SELL signals, combined with the channel position dropping to -3%, confirm the loss of momentum. RSI at 36.4 and CCI20 at -168.63 point to possible continued selling pressure, while ADX at 28.96 shows the trend has not yet weakened. Sabancı Holding (company) ( SAHOL), on the other hand, closed the day flat with +0.29%, yet its overall signal is SELL; the WT=BUY signal and high ADX of 38.83 keep alive the possibility of a short-term rebound within the current downtrend. In SAHOL, RSI at 43.97 is near the lower neutral bound, and StochK at 37.37 confirms weak momentum.

On a day when 28 stocks in the index carry STRONG SELL signals, the concentration of RSI values in the 25-35 band points to oversold territory. Migros (company) ( MGROS) RSI 25.05, Ford Otosan (company) ( FROTO) RSI 25.39, and Pegasus (company) ( PGSUS) RSI 27.10 are the deepest in this zone; however, ADX values of 41.36, 32.84, and 40.01, respectively, show that the downtrend retains its strength. Therefore, oversold conditions alone do not appear sufficient for bargain buying; opening new long positions without early confirmations of a trend reversal, such as the WT=BUY signals in YKBNK and GARAN, is risky. A technical rebound scenario can only come to the fore if the buy signals in these two banking stocks spread to the index and RSIs recover from below 30.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

Liquidity and Balance Sheet Structure: The current asset sizes in the dataset clearly reveal the scale advantage of holding companies. Koç Holding (company) 3.615.15 billion TL and Sabancı Holding (company) has the highest current asset balance at 2.790.07 billion TL; this makes its capacity to transfer resources to group companies relatively strong in a possible liquidity squeeze. On a day when banking and aviation stocks stood out, Yapı Kredi (bank) andTAV Airports' s balance sheet sizes (current assets of 149.31 billion TL and 47.61 billion TL, respectively) are more compact compared to sector averages; this points to the resilience of sectoral cash flow rather than operational efficiency. On the industrial side, Tüpraş (company)' s current assets of 439.48 billion TL are at a level that could provide a buffer against volatility in energy prices; however, today's sharp selling pressure shows that this buffer is not reflected in pricing in the short term.

Sectoral Profitability and Margin Outlook: The data support that margin pressure persists in retail and industrial companies, while cash flow in banking and aviation remains relatively resilient. BİM ( 152.41 billion TL) and Migros (company) ( stands out as structures that finance their current assets with inventory and supplier financing, totaling 88.38 billion TL; this model can increase working capital needs in an inflationary environment. Tofaş (company) ( 152.29 billion TL) and Ford Otosan (company) ( 238.89 billion TL) have a high current asset turnover; however, the slowdown in automotive demand may negatively affect the speed of converting these assets into cash. In aviation, Pegasus (company) ( 91.42 billion TL) and Turkish Airlines ( 512.19 billion TL) operate with high operational leverage; the difference in current asset size can be read as the reflection of THY's fleet and maintenance investments on the balance sheet.

Ratio-Based Assessment and Position Recommendations: Current asset data alone is not a profitability indicator; however, Yapı Kredi (bank) andGaranti (bank)' positive divergence in the banking segment can be associated with asset quality and interest margin management rather than balance sheet size. Tüpraş (company)' current assets of 439.48 billion TL do not provide absolute protection against narrowing refinery margins; therefore, reducing risk in the model portfolio is a result of margin volatility, not balance sheet size. Sabancı Holding (company)' high current asset balance (2.790.07 billion TL) is the balance sheet counterpart of the strong trend confirmed by ADX=38.8; however, the general SELL signal indicates that this size may be insufficient to support the price in the short term. For Sasa (company), Turkish Airlines andMigros (company) where new positions should not be opened, current asset sizes (42.00 billion TL, 512.19 billion TL, and 88.38 billion TL, respectively) differ below or above sector averages, but the real determinant is these companies' cash generation speed in the current period; since there is no direct measurement for these items in the data set, the assessment is made solely based on balance sheet size.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

Main scenario – Close below 14.200 support: XU030 closing the day at 14.221.62 points indicates a close just above the 14.200 psychological support. However, STRONG SELL signals in 28 stocks and RSI values falling to the 25-35 band show that selling pressure has not yet been exhausted. In this scenario, a close below 14.200 could lead selling to continue toward the 14.000 level; losses in high-beta stocks such as TUPRS (daily -4.99%, WT=SELL) and ASELS (daily -5.29%) may deepen. Maintaining the cash ratio in the portfolio can be used to open new positions in the event of sharp declines in this situation.

Alternative scenario – Technical rebound from oversold conditions: RSI values falling to the 25-35 band and WT=BUY signals in YKBNK and GARAN could trigger a short-term buying wave. YKBNK's positive divergence with a daily +1.12% and GARAN's momentum maintained with StochK=88.63 strengthen the banking sector's potential to lead the index. In this scenario, holding the 14.200 support and the expansion of buy signals in banking stocks could enable the index to recover toward the 14.400-14.500 band. However, the sustainability of this rebound depends on stocks carrying STRONG SELL signals (28 stocks) releasing selling pressure.

Portfolio protection shields: In the current table, keeping the cash/liquidity ratio high provides flexibility both in the possible decline toward 14.000 in the main scenario and in the reaction buying in the alternative scenario. Positions can be maintained in stocks giving a WT=BUY signal such as YKBNK and GARAN; however, stop-loss levels need to be tightened in stocks carrying a SELL signal such as TUPRS and SAHOL. The sideways movement in USD/TRY (49.57) does not create additional pressure from the exchange rate; this confirms that the loss in TL assets largely stems from local risk appetite. Therefore, rather than currency hedging, stock-based stop-loss and a cash buffer stand out as priority risk management tools.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

Against the risk of broad-based selling pressure (XU030 -2.31%, 28 stocks STRONG SELL) and the index remaining below the 14.200 support, a liquidity buffer has been created by keeping half of the portfolio in cash; the remaining portion focuses on three stocks whose technical structure has not deteriorated, giving WaveTrend and Short-term BUY signals, with oscillator confirmation and sectoral resilience. Weights are distributed according to signal consistency (Pearson r), channel position, and momentum quality.