Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of September 25, 2026, 23:30 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 15.946.95; previous close 15.940.38 (daily +0.04%); daily performance in dollars -0.12%. The horizontal movement in TRY terms has been almost completely erased due to the rise of USD/TRY from 48.85 to 48.93 (+0.16%). In other words, the 0.04% increase shown by the index in TRY terms turns negative when adjusted for currency movement; this means that for foreign currency-based investors, the position has lost value. This divergence confirms that the buying appetite in the market is weak and the current rally is largely based on currency factors.

The transmission mechanism shows that currency movement has created a clear divergence among sectors. The depreciation of the TRY relatively supports companies with high export revenue and strong currency positions, while increasing cost pressure in sectors dependent on domestic demand and imported inputs. In this context, the positive divergence of KRDMD and TOASO during the day is consistent with the profit margin support from converting foreign currency revenues to TRY. On the other hand, the STRONG SELL signals in banking stocks (GARAN, AKBNK) can be explained by the increased uncertainty about currency volatility's impact on balance sheets and capital adequacy; additionally, the dollar-based decline in this group with high foreign investor weight deepens the selling pressure. The STRONG SELL signals in aviation stocks like THYAO and PGSUS should be read as part of the same risk chain due to the sensitivity of fuel costs to currency and energy prices.

The index's -0.12% performance in dollar terms shows that it remains within a horizontal range at current levels, but upward sustainability requires currency stability. If USD/TRY continues to rise, dollar-based losses may increase despite horizontal TRY-based closing prices, potentially increasing selling pressure, especially in banking and aviation stocks with high foreign participation. Therefore, the index's holding at 15.946.95 should not be evaluated as a technical recovery signal without currency movement stabilization; the current outlook points to a scenario where selective stock movements are prominent but direction uncertainty continues for the overall index.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

According to evening data, the BIST 30 index closed at 15.940.38 points, losing 2.62% on a daily basis, parallel to the decline in BIST 100. The background of this movement indicates that TL assets struggled to generate dollar-based gains as USD/TRY traded flat (48,8484 TL, +0.03% increase). When viewed from a dollar-based perspective, the index's slight negative divergence shows that the currency's restrictive effect continues. In this picture, while the rise of Consumer Confidence to 91.9 points and Capacity Utilization Rate to 74.2% at home lays the groundwork for optimism, the monthly -1% contraction in industrial production and the decline of Job Security to 102.0 points confirm that the momentum in production continues to slow. This data combination causes the index to consolidate at current levels while supporting selective stock movements.

On the global side, the rise of US 10-year Treasury yield to 5,025 and VIX index to 15.64 stand out as factors limiting risk appetite. In the US, PFI beating expectations at annual 5.4% strengthens the perception of sticky inflation, while the Fed raising policy rate to 4.0% and updating rate projections upward could make fund flows to emerging markets more difficult. In this environment, keeping Turkey's policy rate stable at 37.0 maintains the attractiveness of TL deposits; however, with inflation at annual 31.51%, it shows that positive real returns have not yet been strongly formed. This situation leads to limited liquidity support needed for a permanent rise in the stock market.

In the news flow, MASAK's increase in measures against crime proceeds and terrorist financing, and the announcement that there is no grey list risk in FATF evaluation, draw a positive framework for foreign investors. However, these developments have limited reflection on the index; the strong sell signals in banking stocks prevent the pricing of macro-optimism. On the other hand, the 4.41% increase in Brent oil (107.63 USD/barrel) pushes up energy costs and has the potential to pressure the current account balance. Turkey's current balance at 0,036 billion dollars being below expectations shows that this risk has not materialized yet but needs to be closely monitored. In this picture, the continuation of the strong trend in energy stocks like TUPRS can be partially supported by rising oil prices; however, the WT SELL signal reminds that caution is needed against profit taking risk.

The inconsistency between macro data and technical signals is the most prominent feature of today's market. On the technical side, while buy signals in KRDMD and TOASO remain strong, the macro side's industrial production contraction and currency pressure prevent this strength from spreading to these stocks in general. This outlook continues the index's downward risk while requiring company-specific catalysts (profit margin improvement, foreign revenue advantage) to balance macro pressures for positive divergence in selected stocks to continue. Otherwise, the potential for banking and aviation stocks' selling pressure to pull the index down could limit gains in stocks giving strong signals.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

Technical screening shows a clear divergence today: KRDMD generates BUY signals in all timeframes (short, medium, long term), with an overall evaluation of STRONG BUY. The stock is trading at 46.96 TL with a daily +1.65% premium, showing a significant outperformance compared to the index with a 60-day return of 20.0%. The channel position is at 54%, and almost all oscillators (al=18/sat=1/neut=9) vote for STRONG BUY; with RSI 57.92, MACD 0.59, and CCI20 95.58, momentum is seen supporting the trend. Although ADX at 17.42 is relatively low, indicating that the trend's strength is not yet very high, the current signal integrity makes KRDMD stand out as the strongest technical structure within the index.

TOASO is the second stock catching attention as it approaches the upper band of the channel (80%). The stock rises to 290.0 TL with a +3.76% daily premium, showing short-term and long-term BUY signals, medium-term WAIT signal; overall evaluation BUY. On the oscillator side, there is also a STRONG BUY vote (al=18/sat=2/neut=8); with RSI 55.6 and MACD 2.14 in positive territory. However, the 60-day return at -5.3% and the r-value at -0.28 indicate that the price movement in the last month is not fully aligned with the trend. Therefore, the rise in TOASO carries the risk of facing profit taking if it is not supported by volume at the upper channel band.

GUBRF stands out as a candidate for short-term reaction buying with a +6.45% daily premium. The WT signal is BUY, while the overall evaluation is SELL; this contradiction indicates that the stock's short-term momentum has not yet changed its long-term outlook. Oscillator votes are NEUTRAL (al=9/sat=10/neut=9) and RSI is 49.8 in equilibrium zone; MACD is still negative at -5.74. Channel position is at 35%, and 60-day return is -0.8% horizontal. For the rise in GUBRF to be sustainable, the price needs to break above the middle channel band and MACD needs to cross above zero; otherwise, the current premium may remain limited as a technical correction move.

On the weak side, the STRONG SELL signals in banking and aviation stocks are noteworthy. In GARAN, oscillator votes are completely sell-oriented at 0 buy/19 sell, with RSI 47.72 and CCI20 -53.64; in THYAO, pressure continues with RSI 45.57, MACD -3.71, and CCI20 -36.28. In SASA, despite approaching the oversold zone with RSI 33.53, StochK 3.82, and CCI20 -114.28, the WT signal being SELL and the channel position at 1% show that it is too early for a recovery in the stock. The sharp decline in DSTKF (60-day -69.2%) and RSI falling to 24.44 show that oversold conditions have formed, but the trend is still under strong selling pressure.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

In terms of balance sheet size, the current asset items in the dataset provide a significant picture of companies' operational scales. SAHOL has the highest current asset size with 2.790.07 billion TL, reflecting a broad consolidation effect as a natural result of its holding structure. THYAO with 512.19 billion TL and TUPRS with 439.48 billion TL ranking second and third respectively, shows that these two companies' high-volume business models are directly reflected in their balance sheet structures. On the other hand, KRDMD having the lowest current asset size of 32.40 billion TL indicates that the company operates with a relatively compact balance sheet, and when evaluated together with strong signals in technical analysis, it presents a notable profile in terms of operational efficiency.

In terms of liquidity and working capital efficiency, the sectoral distribution of current assets brings about some divergences. EKGYO's 387.01 billion TL in current assets reflects the weight of inventory and ongoing project costs due to the nature of the real estate development sector; this situation indicates that a large part of the company's balance sheet consists of items with long cash conversion times. In contrast, the current asset structures of BIMAS (152.41 billion TL) and MGROS (88.38 billion TL) in the retail sector show a more liquid appearance with the principle of fast inventory turnover and collection of trade receivables in the short term. TOASO's 152.29 billion TL in current assets, considering the supply chain and inventory management dynamics in automotive production, shows that the company has operational flexibility that can support the momentum at the upper band of the channel.

When evaluated on a ratio basis, it is seen that current asset size alone is not a profitability indicator, but becomes meaningful when combined with the sectoral business model. GUBRF's 48.99 billion TL in current assets, considering the raw material-intensive production structure in the fertilizer sector, shows that the short-term reaction buying behind the daily 6.45% premium has a counterpart on the balance sheet side. TUPRS's 439.48 billion TL in current assets confirms the high working capital requirement of the refinery sector, while suggesting that the balance sheet size may provide flexibility in possible profit-taking after a 60-day 69.3% return, but the WT SAT signal at this point requires caution. SASA's 42.00 billion TL in current assets, considered together with the RSI value in the oversold region, reveals that it is necessary to monitor whether the company's current balance sheet structure has a recovery potential without creating a new capital need in the short term.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

6) Risk Management and Scenarios

The short-term outlook indicates that despite the index's flat TL-denominated close (XU030: 15.946.95, +0.04%), its -0.12% performance in USD terms shows that pressure from the currency continues. In the bearish scenario, if the STRONG SELL signals in banking stocks (GARAN, AKBNK, YKBNK, ISCTR) deepen and the weakness in aviation stocks (THYAO, PGSUS) continues, there is a risk of the index falling below its current horizontal range. In this scenario, the WT SELL signal in TUPRS and its position at the 4% channel bottom may cause profit-taking to accelerate; while the oversold regions in SASA and DSTKF (RSI values 33.53 and 24.44 respectively) show that recovery efforts have not yet been convincing. In the bullish scenario, however, the BUY signal in KRDMD across all timeframes and TOASO's momentum at the 80% upper band of the channel could enable the index to rise above the horizontal range through selective stock movements; but for this movement to be sustainable, the selling pressure in banking stocks needs to ease.

As a portfolio shield, maintaining a high cash/liquidity ratio stands out as the primary strategy in the current table. Exiting banking (GARAN, AKBNK, YKBNK, ISCTR) and aviation (THYAO, PGSUS) stocks that give STRONG SELL signals forms the first line of defense against the downside risk of the index. Positions in strong-signal stocks like KRDMD and TOASO can provide relative resilience against USD-based erosion due to their currency-protected and export-oriented structures; however, as these stocks approach their upper channel bands (TOASO 80%), the risk of short-term profit-taking should not be ignored. Positions in TUPRS and GUBRF should be monitored due to their WT SELL and overall SELL signals respectively; oscillator confirmation should be awaited for new buying. Maintaining the cash ratio in a way that does not contradict the weight in the model portfolio in section 7 will provide flexibility to take new positions in possible sharp decline scenarios (especially if the +0.16% increase in USD/TRY further suppresses the USD-denominated return).

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

The model portfolio has been created considering signal strength, channel position, and Pearson correlation coefficient. KRDMD and TOASO, which give STRONG BUY signals, form the core positions of the portfolio; while TUPRS and BIMAS are considered as complementary positions with their BUY signals and relatively high 60-day returns. Although GUBRF has a WT BUY signal and a daily premium of 6.45%, it has been held with limited weight as its overall outlook is SELL. Due to the STRONG SELL signals in banking, aviation, and holding sectors, no allocation has been made to these sectors in the portfolio, with a relatively high cash ratio maintained to provide protection against downside risks.