Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of October 6, 2026, at 21:05 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 15.381.69; previous close 15.457.49 (daily -0.49%); daily performance in dollar terms -0.53%. The difference between the index's loss in TL terms and its loss in dollar terms stems from the fact that USD/TRY's daily change is only +0.04% (49.17); that is, the selling pressure is not driven by currency movements but directly by a contraction in local risk appetite. This constitutes the first link of the transmission mechanism: low volatility in the exchange rate leads pricing in TL assets to be entirely indexed to domestic dynamics. The index closing below the 15.400 level technically moves the short-term support search to the 15.381.69 level, and whether this level can be held will be monitored along with tomorrow's trading volume.

The sectoral distribution of the selling is not homogeneous; this clarifies the second link of the transmission chain. The positive divergence in banking stocks (YKBNK +1.56%, ISCTR +3.37%) limited the index's decline, while sharp drops in the energy and aviation sectors (TUPRS -3.07%) constituted the main source of selling pressure. This picture shows that the index-wide loss of -0.49% resulted from the netting of purchases in banking against sales in energy and aviation. The alignment of the WT SELL and oscillator SELL signals in TUPRS indicates that profit-taking after a 60-day return of +43.9% is supported by technical confirmation; this suggests that the unraveling in the energy sector may not be merely a daily fluctuation but a momentum-driven correction. The same mechanism, together with the STRONG SELL signal in ASTOR and the RSI declining to the 31 level, confirms that risk appetite in high-beta stocks has markedly diminished.

The final link of the transmission chain is the impact of this divergence on risk perception at the index level. While the strong outlook in banking (ISCTR being the strongest bank of the day, and the TradingView BUY and WT BUY alignment in YKBNK) acts as a downward buffer for the index, the risk of breaking the 15.381.69 support may increase if selling pressure from TUPRS and MGROS expands. ASELS remaining resilient with +1.21% in the defense sector and giving WT BUY and oscillator BUY signals shows that the geopolitical risk premium is creating partial demand for defense stocks; this indicates that the direction of sectoral rotation within the index has turned toward banking and defense. The base scenario is the continuation of consolidation in the 15.300-15.400 band; the risk scenario is that selling pressure in energy and aviation spreads to sectors other than banking, pulling the index below this band.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

As of the morning of October 6, on the macro side, investors face two clear indicators: the CBRT's September inflation data and the foreign trade figures announced last evening. Annual inflation came in at 29.73%, below the expectation of 30.3%, while the monthly increase remained at 1.84%, the same as the previous month. This picture supports the real interest rate remaining in positive territory in an environment where the policy rate is held at 37.0%. However, the more notable point is that, despite the CBRT's statement that "the main trend of inflation declined in September," on the US side, PPI came in at 5.4% annually, above expectations, and the US 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4%. Global interest rate pressure stands out as the main external factor limiting inflows into TL assets. The horizontal course of USD/TRY at the 49.17 level shows that this pressure is managed through yield expectations rather than through the exchange rate.

Foreign trade data paints a picture that indirectly concerns banking stocks through the current account balance. Exports increased to 25.98 billion dollars compared to the previous month, while imports rose to 31.21 billion dollars, and the foreign trade deficit was realized at -5.23 billion dollars. This figure is close to the previous month's deficit of -5.24 billion dollars; that is, there is no significant improvement in the external balance. On the other hand, the budget balance posting a surplus of 12.9 billion TL in September and the current account remaining at 0,036 billion dollars, below expectations but in positive territory, are positive signals for macro stability. This mixed picture forms the fundamental basis for the positive divergence in banking stocks (ISCTR +3.37%, YKBNK +29.73): the improvement in public finances and the downward trend in inflation strengthen expectations that pressure on net interest margins will ease. However, the condition for this view to be invalidated is the continuation of the rise in US bond yields and a slowdown in fund flows to emerging countries; in this scenario, the rally in banking stocks could also be limited.

The selling pressure in the energy and aviation sectors directly aligns with macro data. Although Brent crude's decline of 1.93% to 100.28 dollars/barrel partially explains TUPRS's -3.07% loss, the main determinant is the profit-taking following the company's 60-day return of 43.9%. The notable point here is that, despite the potential for the drop in oil prices to positively affect refinery margins, the technical signals specific to the stock (WT SELL) are in the selling direction. This contradiction between macro data and technical signals shows that investors are prioritizing profit realization in the short term. On the THYAO front, geopolitical risks (Iran-US tension) and uncertainty in fuel prices continue to create pressure on the cost side. The spread of selling pressure in these sectors to the index should be monitored as the main risk element that could disrupt the base scenario of consolidation in the 15.300-15.400 band.

On the fund flows side, CBRT Governor Karahan's statement that "outflows from funds have turned toward deposits" is a critical indicator for investor psychology. This confirms that risk appetite is weak and investors are turning to safer havens. The decline in deposit interest rates to 43,795% shows that, although funds exiting have moved into deposits, deposit returns have fallen; this could create a potential source of funds for the stock market. However, for this potential to materialize, the index needs to make persistent closes above 15.400 and the horizontal course in USD/TRY must be maintained. Otherwise, the tendency of fund outflows to turn toward deposits could deepen the selling pressure in the stock market.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

At the center of the selling-oriented trend in BIST 30 is Tüpraş, which ended the day down 3.07% at 379.25 TL. The stock, after its strong 60-day return of 43.9%, is facing profit-taking, while the channel's decline to the 1% level and its approach to the lower band is noteworthy. On the technical side, both WT and oscillators show SELL alignment (RSI 45.32; CCI20 -108.23); this picture indicates that short-term recovery efforts may remain weak. Similarly, BİM also declined 1.03% to 409.25 TL, while the WT SELL signal and the channel's movement in the 8% band indicate that weakness on the retail side persists. In both stocks, the oscillators not approaching the oversold zone suggests that the current decline has not yet formed a technical bottom.

The positive divergence in banking stocks contrasts with the overall picture of the index. İş Bankası ended the day up 3.37% at 12.87 TL, while Yapı Kredi rose 1.56% to 36.46 TL. In Yapı Kredi, the WT BUY signal and the alignment of oscillators in the BUY direction (RSI 53.93; CCI20 45.05) indicate that short-term momentum is in favor of the bank. However, in İş Bankası, the TradingView oscillators being predominantly SELL (buy=6/sell=15) and the presence of a WT SELL signal indicate that the daily rise lacks volume and momentum support. Therefore, the sustainability of the movement in İş Bankası appears to depend on breaking the resistance at the 43% band of the channel.

On the defense side, Aselsan rose 1.21% to 376.00 TL, while the WT BUY signal and oscillators in the BUY direction (RSI 51.30) make the stock resilient. Trading in the 41% band of the channel, the stock is outperforming the index with a 60-day return of 6.7%. In contrast, weakness in the energy and aviation sectors is becoming more pronounced. Astor Enerji fell 1.72% to 194.60 TL, while the RSI approaching the oversold zone at 30.95 and CCI20 dropping to -132.11 reveal the intensity of selling pressure. A similar picture exists in Pegasus: with the stock down 1.89% to 140.20 TL, oscillators give a STRONG SELL (buy=0/sell=20), and the movement in the 33% band of the channel indicates that the search for support continues.

In the overall technical outlook, the index closing below 15.400 suppresses risk appetite, while the gap between the recovery effort in banking stocks and the weakness in energy and aviation stocks is widening. The WT SELL signals in Tüpraş and BİM, combined with the movement near the lower channel bands, give the impression that the decline in these stocks is not yet complete. On the other hand, the BUY signals in Yapı Kredi and Aselsan emphasize the need for a selective approach on a sectoral basis.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

Looking at balance sheet structures, holding companies and airline companies stand out in terms of current assets. KCHOL having the highest current assets at 3.615.15 billion TL confirms the group's operational scale and liquidity buffer. THYAO's current assets of 512.19 billion TL reflect the sector's high working capital needs; while TUPRS's 439.48 billion TL provides relative flexibility against fluctuations in refining margins. However, these magnitudes alone are not an indicator of profitability; especially TUPRS losing 3.07% intraday shows that the profit-taking following a 60-day return of 43.9% is a pricing behavior independent of balance sheet size.

In terms of the liquidity-valuation relationship, companies with low current assets paint a more fragile picture in price movements. KRDMD's current assets of 32.40 billion TL, TRALT's 24.88 billion TL, and TRMET's 25.54 billion TL remain well below sector averages. The balance sheet structures of these companies may offer less protection against cash flow pressure in a potential demand contraction. Similarly, SASA's current assets of 42.00 billion TL and ASTOR's 47.91 billion TL support the interpretation that deep value losses point to balance sheet risks; for these two stocks, a strong balance sheet contribution to price stability is not observed.

In positively diverging stocks, there is a partial alignment between balance sheet size and price performance. ASELS's current assets of 248.77 billion TL are sufficient to meet the working capital needs arising from the contract flow in the defense industry; the resilient intraday movement of 1.21% is consistent with this structure. AEFES's current assets of 149.31 billion TL support the stable cash conversion in the food sector; the stock's rise of 3.26% aligns with the perception that balance sheet size limits operational risk. In contrast, EKGYO's inability to remain indifferent to the general selling atmosphere in the sector despite its current assets of 387.01 billion TL shows that balance sheet size alone is not a price support.

In the overall assessment, companies with high current assets such as KCHOL, THYAO, and TUPRS offer a more resilient ground against liquidity risk; while the balance sheet structures of KRDMD, TRALT, and TRMET with low current assets are more fragile against market fluctuations. This distinction reveals that the liquidity buffer can be used as a filter when making sectoral distribution in the portfolio, but price movements are primarily driven by sectoral dynamics and profit-taking.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

As of October 6, 2026, short-term scenarios for BIST 30 are shaped around the index's close at 15.381.69 and its tendency to remain below 15.400. The main scenario is for the index to consolidate in the 15.300-15.400 band. The key factor supporting this view is the positive divergence in banking stocks; Yapı Kredi (+1.56%) and İş Bankası (+3.37%) ended the day strong, which could provide base support for the index. However, upward movement should be expected to remain limited; because selling pressure in high-weight stocks such as Tüpraş (-3.07%) and Enka İnşaat (-2.59%) could weaken the index's efforts to rise above the 15.400 resistance. In case of a break below this band, there is a risk of selling pressure in Tüpraş and Migros spreading to the index; the oscillators being in the STRONG SELL zone in both stocks increases this risk.

In terms of portfolio protection shields, a defensive positioning stands out in the current picture. The weight in banking (Yapı Kredi, İş Bankası) and defense (Aselsan) stocks could increase the portfolio's relative resilience if the index tests the 15.300 support. In contrast, positions in the energy and aviation sectors need to be reduced; the WT SELL signal in Tüpraş and the channel being at the 1% level indicate that the downside potential in this stock may continue. Keeping the cash ratio high due to the index closing below 15.400 will provide liquidity to create buying opportunities in a possible downside scenario (below 15.300). Therefore, maintaining the cash/liquidity weight in the portfolio consistently with the ratio specified in the model portfolio in Section 7 will both create a buffer against downside risks and provide flexibility for gradual position taking if the index falls below the 15.300-15.400 band.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

The model portfolio has been constructed based on the signal strength in the day's data set, the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), and channel position. The positive divergence in banking stocks (YKBNK +1.56%, ISCTR +3.37%) and the resilient stance of the defense stock ASELS (+1.21%) form the core of the portfolio. Due to WT SELL signals in the energy and aviation sectors (TUPRS, ENKAI) and STRONG SELL warnings (ASTOR, PGSUS), weights in this group have been zeroed out. AEFES, as the only positively diverging stock in the food sector (+3.26%), is included in the portfolio with a limited addition. The cash ratio has been kept at a protective level due to the index closing below 15.400 and the weakening in overall risk appetite.