Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of October 7, 2026, 10:54 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 15.240.13; previous close 15.381.69 (daily -0.92%); daily performance in dollar terms -1.03%. While the index's loss in TL terms was 0.92%, the widening of the loss in dollar terms to -1.03% shows that the selling pressure is fueled not only by local risk appetite but also by currency movements at the same time. The limited rise of USD/TRY by +0.11% daily stands out as a secondary factor directly increasing the loss in value of TL assets; this indicates that most of the decline in the index stems from local selling, but the currency also deepens the loss. The -0.77% decline in XU100 remaining more limited compared to -0.92% in XU030 reveals that selling pressure is particularly concentrated in BIST 30 and that position unwinding in large-cap stocks has a more pronounced impact on the index.

Looking at the transmission mechanism, the index, which held at 15.381.69 at yesterday's close, falling to 15.240.13 today indicates that a move below the 15.300-15.400 band has begun. This band was defined as support in the previous day's analysis; today's price action indicates that this support is being tested and the risk of a break is increasing. In the sectoral distribution of selling pressure, the positive divergence in banking stocks draws attention: BUY signals in VAKBN and YKBNK show that selective buying in banking continues despite the overall weakness in the index. In contrast, STRONG SELL signals in TUPRS, BIMAS, GUBRF, and ASTOR reveal that selling pressure in energy, retail, and fertilizer sectors persists and that these stocks have retreated to the lower bands of their channels. KRDMD remaining resilient with +0.90% daily and PETKM being the strongest gainer of the day with +1.92% show that there is independent momentum in the metals and petrochemical sectors.

On the risk side, the index approaching the 15.200 support and RSI values of ASTOR and SASA falling below 20 in oscillators point to an oversold zone; although this raises the possibility of a technical rebound in the short term, the preservation of the 15.200 support is of critical importance as the main scenario. If this support is broken, the risk of selling pressure in stocks with STRONG SELL signals spreading to the index may increase. If the limited rise on the currency side continues, the dollar-based loss can be expected to continue to exceed the TL-based loss; this should be monitored as a factor limiting the attractiveness of TL assets for foreign investors.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

As of Wednesday, October 7, 2026, the macro framework indicates that the tightening cycle continues despite the downward trend in inflation. According to TUIK data, September annual inflation fell to 29.73%, below the previous month's 31.51%, while monthly inflation came in at 1.84%, well below expectations (2.3%). This picture provides a basis supporting the CBRT keeping its policy rate at 37.0%. However, in the same period, the rise in US PPI to 5.4% year-on-year and US 10-year Treasury yields remaining at high levels keep global pressure on emerging market assets alive. This coincides with the BIST 30 index losing 0.49% at yesterday's close to fall to 15.381.69 points; since the dollar-based loss (-1.03%) indicates approximately twice the TL-based loss, it shows that selling pressure stems from currency rather than local dynamics.

On the currency front, the limited rise in USD/TRY (+0.04%) and EUR/TRY rising 0.16% to 55.42 TL indicate that margin pressure continues for companies with high imported input costs. For companies that are particularly importers of energy and raw materials, this situation poses a downside risk to operational profitability. However, in the same data set, Brent oil falling 1.09% to $99.23 per barrel stands out as a partially mitigating factor for this pressure. Domestically, September exports increasing to $25.98 billion compared to the previous month and the current account balance approaching balance at $0,036 billion in July show that the improvement in the foreign trade channel continues. While this improvement supports the positive reflection of currency movements on the revenues of exporting companies, it limits the impact of weak domestic demand on retail and consumer-oriented sectors.

From an investor psychology perspective, despite the decline in inflation, high real interest rates continue to be the main factor limiting inflows into the stock market. The CBRT keeping its policy rate at 37.0% and deposit rates at 43.8% show that alternative return opportunities remain attractive. In this environment, FTSE Russell keeping Turkey in the "Advanced Emerging Market" status and not placing it on the watchlist can be considered positive news for passive fund flows; however, for this to bring new buying to the index, global risk appetite also needs to be supportive. ASELSAN's new $195 million contract stands out as positive company news for defense industry stocks, while for this development to spread to the broader index, similar news flow from other companies in the sector should be expected.

Looking at the stock-level impacts of macro data, it can be said that the outlook for the banking sector is gradually improving. The downward trend in inflation and strengthening expectations for CBRT rate cuts could ease pressure on banks' deposit costs. However, consumer loan rates remaining high at 64.74% indicate that the revival in credit demand will remain limited. Therefore, for the technical BUY signals in VAKBN and YKBNK to be sustainable, net interest margin data needs to confirm this improvement. On the industrial side, although the capacity utilization rate rising to 74.2% and relative stability in business confidence signal a recovery on the production side, the monthly decline in industrial production (-1.0%) shows that this recovery is not yet strong. In this framework, the sustainability of positive signals in stocks like KRDMD and PETKM will be shaped by the course of global commodity prices and domestic demand conditions.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

The general distribution of the technical scan quantifies how widespread the selling trend is: 17 of 30 stocks carry SELL signals, 8 carry STRONG SELL signals; the overall BUY reading is limited to only two names, Vakıfbank (VAKBN) and Kardemir (KRDMD), while the NEUTRAL framework is in Koç Holding, Yapı Kredi (YKBNK), and TAV Havalimanları. The oscillator side paints a more selective picture: Yapı Kredi gives STRONG BUY (16 buy / 2 sell / 10 neutral) while TAV Havalimanları, Garanti BBVA, Emlak Konut GYO, Vakıfbank, and Kardemir are on the BUY list. While selling pressure dominates in general signals, the buy divergence in oscillators shows that in today's session where XU030 fell 0.92%, buying interest is focused not on the broader index but on specific names and sectoral clusters.

Yapı Kredi has the strongest oscillator reading of the day: a +0.33% daily gain with a close of 36.58 TL, its position at 46% of the channel, i.e., the middle band, RSI of 54.31, MACD turning positive (0.02), and CCI20 value of 67.26 reveal that momentum is buyer-oriented. In contrast, StochK approaching the overbought zone at 78.11 reminds that the signal is open to short-term pullback; the scan keeping the medium and long term at HOLD is consistent with this caution. Vakıfbank, along with Kardemir, is one of the two names giving an overall BUY: in the stock, which came with a flat movement of -0.06% to 33.7 TL, the 60-day change is +6.7%, the r coefficient is 0.74, channel position is 31%, and MACD is positive at 0.17. However, ADX remaining below 15 at 13.57 shows that trend strength is still weak, hence the signal is fragile. Intra-sector divergence is also notable: Garanti BBVA produces BUY in the oscillator (13/6/9) while the scan says SELL for the long term; Akbank and İş Bankası are SELL in both the oscillator (6/13/9 and 6/14/8 respectively) and the general signal. In banking, there is not a sector-wide buying but name-based selectivity.

Kardemir is among the names that positively diverged on a selling day with +0.90%: at 44.8 TL, 60-day +9.7%, channel 34%, r 0.57; the oscillator shows BUY (12/7/9), RSI 50.34 and MACD 0.02 with a neutral-positive momentum, supported by the WT signal being BUY. At TAV Havalimanları, short-term BUY and WT BUY are aligned; however, the r coefficient of 0.02 indicates that the trend direction remains uncertain and that the signal is momentum-driven — the 274.0 TL price, -0.54% daily change, and position at 59% of the channel are consistent with a strong day reading within a horizontal band. Petkim (PETKM), despite posting the strongest daily gain of +1.92%, has a technical setup in the opposite direction: overall signal SELL, oscillator SELL (5 buy / 13 sell / 10 neutral), RSI 46.45, StochK 27.68 and CCI20 -59.18; short, medium, and long term are all HOLD. This divergence between price and oscillator shows that a single-day rally should not be read as a trend reversal before the 60-day +2.9% trend is confirmed.

At the center of the sell side, names retreating to the lower channel bands stand out. Tupras has dropped to 3% of the channel; with a 60-day +42.1% and r=0.85, it still has the strongest uptrend, but WT=SELL, overall signal SELL, RSI 44.83, CCI20 -105.1 and ADX 31.05 show that the decline carries momentum)Skip, and the picture is in the character of a sharp correction within the trend. BIM is at 1% of the channel; while the 60-day +6.0% is still positive, StochK 19.46 and CCI20 -131.69 with price piling at the lower band point to a deep correction. In Astor Enerji, a daily loss of -4.52%, -42.8% over 60 days, channel 5%, RSI 29.29 (below the 30 threshold), MACD -28.01 and ADX 37.79 show the decline is both deep and fast; in Gubre Fabrikalari, MACD -14.29 and ADX 33.24 similarly describe an established downtrend. Names where CCI20 has fallen below -100 (Astor Enerji -119.48, BIM -131.69, Tupras -105.1, Enka Insaat -114.59, Migros -106.48, Pegasus -111.75, Turk Altin Isletmeleri -119.55) and StochK falling to 5.58 in Turk Altin Isletmeleri show that SELL signals may be tested by short-term bargain buying. Those sold from the upper channel form a separate risk cluster: Anadolu Efes channel 73%, Eregli Demir Celik 70%, Turkcell 68%, Turk Hava Yollari 65% (r -0.88); Aselsan's notable daily loss of -2.26% is also part of this broadening sell-off environment. The validity conditions are clear: XU030 holding the 15.200 support may open a window for bargain buying in names where RSI has fallen below 30; losing the support at daily closes would weaken the reliability of overall BUY signals, especially for Vakifbank and Kardemir whose ADX is still below 15, and would resolve price-oscillator divergences like Petkim in the sell direction.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

Today's fundamental data set covers the current asset item for ten stocks within BIST 30: SAHOL 2.790.07 billion TL, TCELL 180.56 billion TL, SISE 151.30 billion TL, PGSUS 91.42 billion TL, MGROS 88.38 billion TL, GUBRF 48.99 billion TL, TAVHL 47.61 billion TL, SASA 42.00 billion TL, PETKM 41.74 billion TL, and TRALT 24.88 billion TL. Since the set does not include short-term liabilities, sales, and profitability items, the current ratio, net working capital, and margin analysis could not be measured today; therefore, the assessment is conducted based on absolute liquidity depth and balance sheet weight, and the findings should not be read as standalone BUY/SELL signals.

The scale distribution shows a clear stratification. SAHOL's current assets of 2.790.07 billion TL are larger than all the other nine stocks in the list combined, reflecting the consolidated balance sheet breadth of the holding structure. It is followed by TCELL (180.56 billion TL) and SISE (151.30 billion TL); PGSUS 91.42 and MGROS 88.38 billion TL form the middle band. GUBRF, TAVHL, SASA, and PETKM are in a tight cluster between 41.74 and 48.99 billion TL; TRALT has the lowest absolute liquidity in the set at 24.88 billion TL. This picture shows that in a possible short-term pressure, the buffer on hand is widest on the SAHOL, TCELL, and SISE side and narrowest on the TRALT side.

Reading the item with the business model can be done with the limitation that the quality of the composition is unknown: In retail, current assets predominantly consisting of inventory and trade receivables is a structural expectation; while the 88.38 billion TL position at MGROS appears sufficient in this regard, since inventory data is not included in the set, the quality of the composition cannot be differentiated, and the retail weakness indicated in the report plan should be considered as an observation related to the pricing side, independent of this liquidity level. In the aviation model, fuel purchases and lease obligations are the main items of short-term cash outflows; the 91.42 billion TL at PGSUS can provide a buffer against these items, but without a short-term liability table, a net liquidity surplus claim cannot be established. At PETKM and SASA (41.74 and 42.00 billion TL, respectively), a buffer of similar magnitude corresponds to the working capital need created by raw material purchases; at PETKM, which stands out as the strongest gainer of the day, the liquidity position remains at the level of context supporting the technical signal. The 47.61 billion TL item at TAVHL, combined with the seasonal cash generation profile of airport operations, can offer liquidity flexibility; at TCELL and SISE, the high absolute level is clear enough to be characterized as a scale advantage.

From a portfolio perspective, two warnings stand out. First, the banking stocks weighted in today's model portfolio, VAKBN and YKBNK, are not included in this fundamental data set; moreover, since the concept of current assets is not functional in bank balance sheets, the liquidity findings in this section do not provide data for the banking recommendation — that differentiation relies on technical screening and oscillator signals. Second, the current asset level alone is not a return engine; the composition of the item can be affected by exchange rate and receivable quality developments between the balance sheet date and the report date. Therefore, the findings here are supportive context to the extent they do not contradict technical signals; in cases where liquidity depth cannot be verified with a known liability table, they should be considered only as a relative strength approach.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

The downside scenario becomes evident if XU030 persists below its daily close of 15.240.13 and XU100 fails to reclaim the 12.278.55 level. XU030's decline of 0.92% in TL terms and 1.03% in dollar terms shows that selling pressure is broad. ASTOR's drop of 4.52%, ASELS's 2.26%, and TRMET's 1.70% indicate that STRONG SELL weight is spreading at ASTOR and TRMET, and SELL at ASELS. If this selling breadth is maintained, new purchases should be gradually limited, and risk should be reduced in positions with strong sell signals.

For the upside scenario, XU030 needs to reclaim its previous close of 15.381.69 and the BUY density at VAKBN, KRDMD, and YKBNK must persist. VAKBN and KRDMD show BUY in overall, medium, and long-term screening; YKBNK shows BUY strength in short-term and oscillator screening. Although PETKM's 1.92% daily gain and WT-BUY signal are positive, since the oscillator and overall screening give SELL, a single-day strengthening should not be considered sufficient confirmation.

In portfolio protection, the cash and liquidity share should be maintained at the weight specified in the CASH line of the model portfolio; no different cash ratio is recommended in this section. The cash buffer should be used not for additional purchases in weak stocks, but for risk reduction when strong SELL signals become widespread; positions should be gradually increased when the index reclaims its previous close. Although ASTOR's 29.29 and SASA's 33.11 RSI values indicate a short-term reaction buying risk, STRONG SELL continues in both stocks; therefore, low RSI alone should not be considered a base confirmation. Instead of simultaneously increasing weight in VAKBN and YKBNK, the total banking share should be limited, and sector diversification should be maintained with KRDMD.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

While 15.0% cash is maintained owing to selling pressure on the index and the selectivity in signal distribution, weight is placed on VAKBN and KRDMD, which give a general BUY, and on YKBNK and TAVHL, which give an oscillator BUY. Portfolio weights are determined according to signal strength, Pearson r values, channel positions and horizontal maturity fit.