Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of October 13, 2026, 07:22 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 15.001.28; previous close 15.145.27 (daily %-0.95); daily performance in dollar terms %-1.01. While the index's loss in TL terms was 0.95%, the loss in dollar terms being 1.01% shows that the investor was negatively affected not only by the loss of assets in TL but also by the exchange rate movement. USD/TRY being at 49.35, only 0.06% above the previous close, reveals that the majority of the dollar-based loss stems not from exchange rate volatility but directly from the selling pressure in the index. This picture shows that the decline following yesterday's flat close is a continuation of the weakening in local risk appetite, and the effort to stabilize just above the 15.000 psychological support continues.

Transmission Mechanism: Index Pressure and Positive Divergence in Banking

The 0.95% decline in XU030 indicates that selling pressure persists across the index, but the sectoral distribution of this pressure is not homogeneous. In analyses of past days, the positive divergence in banking stocks and VAKBN carrying a "Strong BUY" signal across all time frames show that this sector maintains its relative resilience compared to the index. Although today's data does not include a specific price movement for banking stocks, GARAN's "WT BUY" signal and VAKBN's strong oscillator support support the potential of these stocks to be less affected by the decline in the index. In contrast, the index closing at 15.001.28 shows that we are in a risk zone where selling could accelerate if the 15.000 support is broken. In this case, buying interest in banking stocks stands out as the only strong mechanism that could balance the overall selling pressure in the index.

Sector Impact and Stock-Level Implications

The dollar-based loss of the index decline being above the TL-based loss is a factor limiting the attractiveness of TL assets for foreign investors. However, the continuation of the horizontal trend in USD/TRY (49.35) means that exchange rate volatility remains low and the effort to stabilize in TL assets continues. In this environment, stocks with strong technical signals stand out: VAKBN's BUY signal across all time frames, TRMET's "Strong BUY" vote in oscillators, and KRDMD's daily rise of 2.18% show that these stocks find buyers despite the selling pressure in the index. On the other hand, the balance sheet effects of the deep value losses in SASA and ASTOR in past analyses show that the selling pressure in these stocks is driven by fundamental reasons and that the weakness in the index could be deeper in these stocks. Therefore, if the index holds above the 15.000 support, the positive divergence of selective stocks in the banking and metal group may continue; however, a break of this support could lead to the spread of selling to all sectors and the weakening of the positive divergence in banking.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

On the exchange rate front, which is the most critical balancing element for Turkish assets, there is no significant movement today. As of the evening of October 12, USD/TRY maintained its horizontal trend at 49.32, while EUR/TRY saw a limited pullback of 0.44%. The TL remaining relatively flat on a day when the dollar index (DXY) rose 0.35% indicates that the effort to stabilize in local assets continues. However, this stabilization could not prevent the 0.95% decline in BIST 30; the index fell to 15.001 points and held just above the critical 15.000 support. The dollar-based loss exceeding the TL-based loss shows that selling pressure is felt more deeply from the perspective of foreign investors.

Data on the inflation front creates a two-way effect on investor psychology. While annual inflation in September came in at 29.73%, below expectations, the 27.38% annual increase in PPI confirms the slowdown in producer costs. This picture shows that the positive real interest rate area is maintained together with the policy rate that the CBRT kept fixed at 37%. However, on the US side, the rise in PPI to 5.4% annually and the upward revision in the Fed's interest rate projections stand out as a global factor limiting fund flows to emerging market assets. In this framework, the CBRT's tight stance being supported by the slowdown in credit growth (36.3% annual) signals that the balancing in domestic demand continues.

In the news flow, a company-based positive divergence is seen in ASELSAN. The company's announcement of a new contract worth 195 million dollars stands out as a development strengthening order visibility in the defense industry. In contrast, the IMF lowering its growth forecast for Turkey and pointing to artificial intelligence, bond yields, and cyber attack risks on a global scale are among the factors suppressing risk appetite. The rise in oil prices (Brent 106 USD/barrel) has the potential to increase pressure on the current account balance, while Turkey's current account balance of 36 million dollars in July, together with the widening in the foreign trade deficit, points to a fragile picture. This outlook depends on the condition of maintaining exchange rate stability for the sustainability of the positive divergence in banking stocks; otherwise, the deposit interest rate level of 43.3% could increase banks' funding costs again.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

VAKBN (Vakifbank): It is in the position of the strongest representative of the positive divergence in banking stocks. VAKBN, the only stock generating a BUY signal across all time frames (short, medium, long term) in the technical scan, is trading at 34.44 TL with a daily rise of 1.59%. Supported by a STRONG BUY vote (17 buy, 2 sell) on the oscillator side, the stock has RSI at 54.56, above the neutral zone, and MACD at 0.22, on the positive side. The channel position is at 41%, in the middle zone; this shows that the stock's upward movement space is maintained despite the general selling pressure in the index. The 60-day return of 13.0% indicates that the relative strength in the banking group continues.

TRMET (TR Anadolu Metal) (company): It is the stock with the strongest technical signal in the oscillator vote with 18 buy, 0 sell. Although it fell to 135.40 TL with a daily decline of 1.38%, its positioning in the middle of the channel (47%) and RSI remaining above neutral at 52.04 suggest that the decline is more of a profit-taking nature rather than selling pressure. Although MACD is still on the negative side at -0.81, the low trend strength of ADX at 17.45 shows that the current movement is not directional. The 60-day return of 17.2% and medium/long-term BUY signals confirm that the stock exhibits significant relative strength compared to the index.

EKGYO (Emlak Konut GYO): Despite the overall NEUTRAL outlook with short-term BUY signal and WT BUY vote, it is among the stocks candidates for reaction buying. Trading at 19.73 TL price level with a daily loss of 0.60%, the oscillators are predominantly BUY (13 buy, 5 sell) and RSI is in the neutral zone at 51.99. StochK being at a high level of 75.94 indicates that the overbought zone is being approached in the short term; however, CCI20 remaining on the positive side at 77.94 supports that buying momentum is maintained. Channel position is in the middle zone at 44%; these levels indicate that the balancing effort specific to the stock continues despite the weakness in the index.

KRDMD (Kardemir): The stock exhibiting the most notable performance of the day in the metals group has reached 44.06 TL with a daily increase of 2.18%. In the stock, which produces a BUY signal in the oscillator vote (12 buy, 8 sell), RSI is just below the neutral zone at 48.78; this situation requires caution regarding whether the rise will continue with volume support. Channel position is in the lower-middle zone at 28%, and the 60-day return of -1.6% shows that the stock has not yet fully broken the medium-term negative trend. Despite the WT SELL signal, the strong daily performance indicates that selective buying may occur in the metals group.

GARAN (Garanti BBVA): GARAN, another representative of the positive divergence in banking stocks, is at the level of 129.80 TL with a daily increase of 0.39%. Despite the overall SELL outlook in the technical scan, the WT BUY signal and the NEUTRAL vote in the oscillators (9 buy, 10 sell) draw attention. RSI is exactly in the neutral zone at 50.02, MACD is on the negative side at -0.49; however, ADX being at medium strength at 23.60 indicates that the current SELL trend is weakening. Channel position is in the middle zone at 38%; the stock may remain relatively resilient compared to the index if buying interest in the banking group continues.

TUPRS (Tüpraş) (company): TUPRS, one of the strongest performing stocks of the index with a 60-day return of 27.4%, is trading at the level of 384.75 TL. While medium and long-term BUY signals are maintained in the technical scan, the short-term SELL signal and the NEUTRAL vote in the oscillators (9 buy, 11 sell) show that the stock is following a horizontal course in the short term. RSI is below the neutral zone at 47.98, MACD is on the negative side at -0.69; however, ADX being high at 29.78 suggests that the current trend is strong and the correction movement may remain limited. Channel position is in the lower zone at 13%; this level indicates that the stock is trading close to channel support and is approaching a potential buying zone within the medium-term uptrend.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

When considered in terms of balance sheet sizes, the current asset sizes of holding and aviation companies stand out. KCHOL 3.615.15 billion TL and SAHOL With 2.790.07 billion TL, it has the highest current asset figures. This situation reflects the breadth of the operational scale of the holdings in question and the relative strength of their liquidity buffers.THYAO' Its current assets of 512.19 billion TL appear consistent with the high working capital needs of the aviation sector, whileTUPRS' Its current assets of 439.48 billion TL point to the inventory and trade receivables-intensive structure of refinery operations. The balance sheet size of these three companies forms the fundamental basis of their weight within the index.

Companies with more compact balance sheets in terms of liquidity and efficiency draw attention.KRDMD' With 32.40 billion TL andTRMET' With 25.54 billion TL current assets, they indicate more modest scales compared to sector averages. However, this situation stems from sectoral differences rather than operational efficiency. On the other hand,ASTOR ( 47.91 billion TL) andSASA ( 42.00 billion TL), the current asset sizes of companies such as these do not fully explain the balance sheet dimension of the deep value losses emphasized in the technical section of the report; it is assessed that these losses arise mostly from deterioration in market valuation and profitability expectations.EKGYO' Its current assets of 387.01 billion TL stand out as a natural result of the inventory-heavy balance sheet structure in real estate development companies.

When a ratio-based evaluation is made, it is clear that current assets alone are not a sufficient indicator and must be compared with short-term liabilities. Since the data set only includes current asset figures, it is not possible to calculate the current ratio or liquidity ratio. HoweverTUPRS' Its 60-day return performance of 27.4% can be read as indirect evidence that a strong trend has been observed in operational profitability as well as balance sheet size. Similarly, KRDMD' the 2.18% daily rise and the BUY signal in oscillators indicate that the positive divergence in the metals group is supported by fundamental dynamics despite its relatively small balance sheet. In contrast, SASA andASTOR' it is assessed that the value losses in these companies cannot be explained by their balance sheet sizes, and that the problem in these companies should be sought in their profit margins and sectoral demand conditions.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

Downside Scenario: The index trading at 15.001.28 points indicates an effort to hold just above the 15.000 psychological support. A daily close below this level could accelerate selling pressure in holdings and aviation stocks (KCHOL, THYAO, PGSUS, TAVHL) that carry a STRONG SELL signal, and a gradual pullback toward the 14.800-14.700 band could occur in the index. In this scenario, maintaining a high cash/liquidity ratio in the portfolio serves as the main shield for opening new positions in a potential decline. Additionally, the dollar-based loss (1.01%) being higher than the TL-based loss (0.95%) shows that the currency's horizontal trend (49.35) is insufficient to protect TL assets in the eyes of foreign investors; therefore, currency-denominated hedging instruments can also be considered to limit risk.

Upside Scenario: The positive divergence in banking stocks (VAKBN +1.59%, GARAN +0.39%, AKBNK +0.74%) and the resistance in the metals group (KRDMD +2.18%, EREGL +0.75%) could be the precursor to a selective recovery if the index maintains the 15.000 support. VAKBN's STRONG BUY signal across all timeframes and TRMET's STRONG BUY vote in oscillators could trigger a wave of bargain buying led by these stocks. In this scenario, a portion of the cash ratio in the portfolio can be gradually directed toward these strongly signaled stocks after persistence above the 15.000 level is confirmed. However, due to the SELL weight in the overall technical outlook (STRONG SELL or SELL in 17 of 28 stocks), the upward move should be expected to remain limited and selective rather than a broad-based rally.

Portfolio Protection Shields: In the current picture, the index's dependence on the 15.000 support and the SELL weight in the overall signal distribution make it mandatory to maintain a high cash/liquidity buffer in the portfolio. This buffer provides immediate protection against potential price gaps in the downside scenario and keeps liquidity ready for evaluation in the upside scenario. Furthermore, instead of holding positions in stocks with STRONG SELL signals and high negative correlation (MGROS r=-0.91, THYAO r=-0.88, PGSUS r=-0.82), avoiding these stocks or reducing existing positions will limit the degree to which the portfolio is affected by a decline in the overall index. Although the positive divergence in banking stocks makes this sector a hedging instrument with relative strength compared to the index, investments in this area should also be kept selective and limited due to the SELL signals in the sector (YKBNK, AKBNK, ISCTR).

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

The model portfolio is built on stocks that produce STRONG BUY or BUY signals in today's technical scan, maintain a buying outlook in oscillator votes, and carry positive divergence potential when Pearson correlation (r) and channel position are evaluated together. VAKBN stands out as the core position of the portfolio with BUY signals across all timeframes and a STRONG BUY vote in oscillators (17 buy/2 sell); while TRMET constitutes the second main item with its position in the middle of the channel (47%) and a STRONG BUY vote in oscillators (18 buy/0 sell). TUPRS maintains its growth story with a 60-day return of 27.4% and a medium/long-term BUY signal; while EKGYO is evaluated as a limited reaction position with a short-term BUY signal and a WT BUY vote. In banking, GARAN is monitored with low weight due to the overall SELL outlook despite the WT BUY signal; while KRDMD has been cautiously added to the portfolio due to the WT SELL vote and negative correlation (r=0.50) despite its 2.18% daily rise. Considering the SELL weight in the overall index and the critical position of the 15.000 support, the cash ratio has been maintained at 25%.