Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of October 15, 2026, at 07:29 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 15.047.87; previous close 15.191.57 (daily -0.95%); daily performance in dollar terms -1.07%. The deeper loss in dollar terms compared to the TL-based decline occurs despite the flat course of USD/TRY at 49.40. Since the daily change in the exchange rate was only +0.12%, the difference in the dollar-based loss is largely not due to the currency valuation effect but to the institutional mechanism in converting the decline in the index's TL price into foreign investor returns. This picture points to a transmission chain in which returns on TL assets erode faster when selling pressure combines with foreign outflows, independent of local dynamics.

From Data to Mechanism: Components of the Decline

When the -0.95% decline in XU030 is evaluated together with the -1.08% loss in XU100, it shows that the selling is spreading from large-cap stocks to the broader market. The index level of 15.047.87 is trying to hold just above the 15.000 psychological support; if this level is broken, the potential for the selling to accelerate increases when combined with yesterday's close in dollar terms. Low exchange rate volatility (USD/TRY flat at 49.40) instead of supporting risk appetite in TL assets, raises the cost of carrying positions for foreign investors due to limited currency returns; this is an element that mechanically strengthens the outflow pressure.

Sectoral and Stock-Based Transmission

In banking, all signals except VAKBN being SELL indicates that banking is the main carrier of the selling in the index's weighted structure; VAKBN's "Strong BUY" signal is the single exception to the divergence within the sector. On the energy side, TUPRS's positive divergence with a daily +1.36% indicates that the 60-day +26.9% momentum is maintained, while KCHOL's +2.71% return being the most positively diverging stock from the index but carrying a WT=SELL warning requires caution regarding the sustainability of this rise. Although PETKM gives a "Strong BUY" (16 buy votes) in oscillators, the overall outlook remaining NEUTRAL and the channel being at 42% in the resistance zone increases the risk that buy signals on the energy and petrochemical side will encounter profit-taking as the price channel approaches the upper band. TAVHL's resilient stance with a daily +1.12% highlights the possibility that this resistance may remain a short-term reaction due to the overall signal being "Strong SELL".

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

US September CPI data at 3.7% annual (estimate 3.4%) and core at 2.6% (estimate 2.4%) damaged the "soft landing" scenario, increasing VIX by 13.3% to 17.30; this shock, combined with the price pressure notes in the Fed Beige Book, caused BIST 30's dollar-based return (-1.07%) to break deeper than its TL return (-0.95%) and triggered foreign selling pressure. While the US 5-year Treasury yield holds at 4.99%, the increase in risk premium is compressing the valuation margins of TL assets; this view would be invalidated if the US Core PCE data to be released next week falls below 0.2% monthly.

In the local macro, September CPI at 1.84% monthly (estimate 2.3%) and 29.73% annual confirmed the disinflation path, but PPI at 2.07% monthly and 27.38% annual shows that structural pressure on input costs continues. While the CBRT policy rate remains at 37%, deposit costs have fallen to 43.3%, and credit growth has declined to 36.3% annually, indicating that the transmission mechanism is working; real rates remaining in deep positive territory maintains exchange rate stability (USD/TRY 49.39) but carries the risk of net interest margin (NIM) compression in banking except for VAKBN. The 1.86% annual decline in industrial production in August increases the selling volume risk in domestic demand-oriented stocks (MGROS, SASA).

In external balances, the August current account surplus of 4.05 billion USD recorded the strongest month of the year, but Central Bank reserves fell to 60.33 billion USD in the week of October 8, signaling that portfolio outflows are eroding the reserve buffer. Brent oil holding at 106 USD/barrel is supportive for TUPRS's 60-day +26.9% momentum, but creates operational margin pressure for THYAO and PETKM. Gold's decline to 4118 USD per ounce (-1.42%) and gram gold falling to 6539 TL weakens technical rebound buying in oversold stocks like PGSUS (RSI 29) and SASA (RSI 33).

Although the 31.21 decrease in natural gas imports in August on the agenda is positive for the current account, the uncertainty in the Customs Union update and the EU's industrial regulation warning (Minister Bolat) limit the revaluation potential of export-oriented holdings (KCHOL). The start of the new installment shopping period and the 10.1% annual growth in retail sales in August give confidence in consumer resilience; however, consumer loan interest rates remaining at 64.74% keeps volume acceleration limited. In summary: without the 15.000 psychological support being broken (on a closing basis), technical rebound is risky; the direction of foreign flows will remain dependent on US real rate expectations.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

VAKBN (Vakifbank): In the technical scan, it stands out as the only bank stock with an overall signal of "Strong BUY". Although its daily price fell 0.47% to 34.24 TL, its 60-day return remains positive at 11.8%. The stock, which is at the top with 18 buy votes in TradingView oscillator votes, has RSI at 53.37 above the neutral zone, and StochK at 84.33 approaching the overbought zone. Channel position is at 34% and trend strength is weak with ADX 11.28; therefore, current buy signals indicate that short-term momentum is diverging in favor of VAKBN among banking stocks rather than a strong trend.

TUPRS (Tüpraş) (company): TUPRS, the only stock in the energy group with a positive divergence with a daily increase of 1.36%, maintains its momentum with a 60-day return of 26.9%. In the stock with an overall signal of "BUY", oscillator votes are balanced with 15 buys and 5 sells; trend strength is more pronounced compared to VAKBN with RSI 51.17 and ADX 28.3. Channel position is in the middle zone at 22%, and CCI20 is in a slight sell zone at -17.45; this indicates that a buying opportunity may arise after a short-term pullback. However, since MACD has not yet given a positive crossover at -0.57, the price needs to close above 391.00 TL for the sustainability of the current momentum.

KCHOL — Koç Holding: Despite rising 2.71% daily and showing the most positive divergence from the index, the technical outlook remains cautious. The stock's overall signal is "SELL", and the WT signal is also in the SELL direction; oscillator votes are neutral at 9 buy, 10 sell. With RSI at 48.13 and CCI20 at -38.1, momentum is weak, while ADX at 27.33 confirms the strength of the current downtrend. The daily rise is more likely to be a technical rebound in a stock whose channel position is at 24%, especially since the 60-day return remains limited at 5.5% while MACD is in negative territory at -1.29.

PETKM (Petkim): Despite generating a "Strong BUY" signal with 16 buy votes in oscillator votes, the overall outlook is NEUTRAL. RSI is in the equilibrium zone at 50.51, and trend strength is quite weak with ADX at 11.57; this reduces the reliability of the buy votes in oscillators. With a channel position of 42% approaching the resistance zone, the stock's 60-day return is negative at -6.5%; therefore, the current signal should be read as an indication of short-term consolidation rather than a strong buy recommendation.

TAVHL (TAV Airports): Although it shows a resilient picture with a daily increase of 1.12%, the stock's overall signal is "Strong SELL", and the WT signal is also in the SELL direction. Oscillator votes are neutral at 8 buy, 10 sell; RSI is in the equilibrium zone at 50.05, and trend strength is weak with ADX at 14.14. Despite the channel position being in the upward zone at 52%, the 60-day return remaining flat at -0.8% and MACD being in negative territory at -0.28 limit the likelihood that the daily rise is the start of a lasting trend.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

From the perspective of balance sheet sizes, the sectoral distribution of current assets indicates that liquidity buffers are differentiating.KCHOL, The company holds the highest current asset item in the index with 3,615.15 billion TL; this size allows the holding to maintain its operational flexibility. However, despite being the stock with the most positive divergence from the index on a daily basis at +2.71%, the WT=SAT warning on the technical side indicates that this liquidity strength may not be fully reflected in pricing in the short term. In banking, on the other hand, VAKBN the fact that all signals except for are SAT makes a selective approach necessary rather than an optimism driven by balance sheets across the sector.

On the energy side, TUPRS, stands out as the most liquid item in the sector with 439.48 billion TL in current assets. Its daily positive divergence of +1.36% and 60-day momentum of +26.9% show that the company's strong balance sheet structure is reflected in the price. In contrast, PETKM' current assets remain limited to 48.99 billion TL; despite 16 buy signals in the oscillators, the overall outlook being NEUTRAL and the channel being in the resistance zone at 42% suggest that the balance sheet size may be insufficient to support the price movement.TAVHL it has a similar size with 47.61 billion TRY current assets; however, the overall signal being "Strong SELL" justifies a cautious stance despite liquidity.

In industrial and telecommunications companies, balance sheet structures give different signals.SISE' its 151.30 billion TRY andTTKOM' its 109.44 billion TRY current assets appear sufficient for operational continuity, yet the fact that these two companies are not among the positive divergers in the daily report reveals that balance sheet strength alone is not a price catalyst.FROTO ( 238.89 billion TL) and EREGL ( 265.47 billion TL) such as companies with high current assets also not standing out similarly shows that the market is currently focusing on momentum and signal alignment rather than size. KRDMD ( 32.40 billion TL) and TRMET ( 25.54 billion TL) are the companies with the lowest current asset items in the index, and they may exhibit a more fragile outlook in a possible liquidity squeeze.

In ratio-based evaluation, no direct correlation can be established between the absolute size of current assets and daily price performance. For example, KCHOL' 's massive balance sheet explains a +2.71% return, while VAKBN' The strong buy signal and 18 buy votes indicate that the technical outlook stands out rather than the bank's balance sheet structure. This picture reveals that fundamental analysis remains secondary in current market conditions, and investors primarily react to technical signals and momentum indicators. Therefore, even in companies with high balance sheet size, taking technical warnings into account when taking positions will be a healthier approach in terms of risk management.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

The close of XU030 at the 15.047.87 level occurred just above the 15.000 psychological support. The main scenario includes the possibility that if this support is broken, selling pressure will accelerate and the index will move towards the 14.800 level. The trigger for this scenario could be the deepening of foreign outflows due to the dollar-based loss (-1.07%) being more severe than the TL return, and the horizontal course of USD/TRY at the 49.40 level increasing pressure on TL assets. In this case, sales in stocks such as PGSUS, MGROS, and SASA, which have a general signal of "Strong SELL" and RSI values below 33, can be expected to gain momentum. To protect the portfolio, maintaining the current cash ratio and tightening positions in these stocks with stop-loss should be the priority step.

In the optimistic scenario, the index closing above the 15.200 resistance could trigger a short-term reaction buying. In this case, VAKBN, which gives the only "Strong BUY" signal in the technical scan, and TUPRS, which is positively diverging on a daily basis, could be the leaders of the reaction. However, the WT=SELL warning in KCHOL and the "Strong SELL" signal in TAVHL limit the possibility of this reaction being broad-based. Therefore, instead of increasing existing positions in a possible rise, following a selective and limited buying strategy focused on stocks with strong signals, especially in the banking and energy sectors, will be more measured. Keeping the cash ratio consistent with the weight specified in the model portfolio in Section 7 will maintain the portfolio's flexibility in both scenarios.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

The table below is created based on today's technical scan and oscillator data. Considering signal strength, Pearson correlation coefficient (r), and channel position, only stocks giving BUY or STRONG BUY signals have been selected. In current market conditions where the general outlook is weak, the total stock weight in the portfolio has been limited to 70%, with the remaining 30% held in cash. This structure aims to limit risk in an environment where the index is trading near the 15.000 psychological support and a seller-heavy opening is expected.