Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of October 21, 2026, at 07:22 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 14.676.53; previous close 14.221.62 (daily 3.20%); dollar-based daily performance 3.15%. The difference between the index's TL-based return and dollar-based return is only 0.05 points; USD/TRY's daily change is limited to 0.05%. This shows that the rise stems from a recovery in local risk appetite, independent of exchange rate movements. The index, which had fallen 2.31% to 14.221.62 on the previous trading day, making a strong rebound from this level indicates that the 14.200 support has formed a base that absorbs sellers in the short term.

In the transmission mechanism of the rise, the leadership of banking and aviation stocks is decisive. Yapı Kredi and Garanti BBVA giving BUY signals in the short and medium term shows that the sector is the main driver of the index's upward move; TAV Havalimanları rising above the channel top with a daily premium of 4.47% confirms that buying appetite on the aviation side is expanding. These two sectors giving strong signals simultaneously confirms that the index's close at 14.676.53 is not dependent on a single stock but occurred with broad sectoral participation. However, the presence of SELL signals in stocks such as TUPRS, BIMAS and THYAO in the same data set shows that the rise is not homogeneously spread across the entire index; selling pressure persists in energy, retail and airline transportation.

On the risk side, if the index remains persistently above 14.676.53, the 15.000 level could become a target; however, the presence of stocks with STRONG SELL signals such as MGROS, FROTO and SISE constitutes the source of selling pressure this rise may face. Although ASELS provided the highest return with a daily 6.36%, its overall outlook remaining weak indicates that this move should be considered a short-term reaction buying. The dollar-based return being 37% shows that fund flows toward TL assets are not exchange rate-driven; local interest and liquidity conditions support this move.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

While USD/TRY follows an almost unchanged course at 49.57 (daily +0.09%), the BIST 30 index rising 3.20% in TL terms and 3.15% in dollar terms indicates that daily purchasing power is not fueled by exchange rate volatility but entirely by domestic demand dynamics. According to Turkish statistics, September CPI monthly 1.84% (below estimate 2.3%) and annual 29.73% (previous 31.51%) continues the disinflation trend; annual PPI also declined to 27.38% (from 27.95%), strengthening positive real interest rates. These data expand the TCMB's room to maintain its 37% policy rate while positively revising net interest margin expectations for the banking sector (Yapı Kredi, Garanti BBVA); softening in deposit costs (weighted deposit rate fell to 43.12%) and controlled slowdown in loan growth (36.32% annual) support margin quality.

From an external perspective, the US September PPI coming in well above market expectations at monthly 1.3% (estimate 0.5%) and annual 6.3% (estimate 5.3%) rekindles the Fed's "higher for longer" risk; nevertheless, the DXY retreating 0.27% to 101.70 and the VIX falling 5.7% to 17.39 show that global risk appetite has not yet deteriorated. The divergence in oil prices (Brent down 0.5% while WTI fell sharply 5.45%) and the BIST's resilience to the oil shock despite the Middle East agenda reflect external balance confidence supported by the current account turning to a surplus of 4.05 billion dollars in August data and central reserves rising to 64.57 billion dollars. The current account surplus of 4 billion dollars after June allows the currency risk premium to compress and foreign flows toward TL assets to continue.

Looking through the monetary policy transmission channel; positive real interest rates (policy rate 37% vs CPI 29.73%) shift the savings tendency from housing and foreign currency toward the real sector and equities; retail sales growing 1.4% monthly and 10.1% annually in August supports this evidence. However, industrial production contracting 1.0% monthly and 1.86% annually in August, and the September budget deficit jumping to 532.2 billion TL (from a 12.9 billion surplus the previous month), raise questions about the quality of domestic demand strength and fiscal discipline. The consumer confidence index remaining at 91.9 (below 91.9) indicates that the erosion in household purchasing power has not yet fully recovered.

Invalidation conditions: If USD/TRY breaks the 49,569 psychological resistance on volume and makes it permanent (the real effective exchange rate index at 105.45 is already above its historical averages), if the disinflation trend breaks with the September data (if October TÜFE comes in above2.5% monthly) or if the US 10-year Treasury yield stays above3.7%, this bank-heavy rally could come under selling pressure. In the current scenario, the expansion of the interest margin, reserve accumulation and the current account provide the fundamental contributions that turn the 14.676 support level for BIST 30 (today's close) into a structure targeting 15.000.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

Buy Signals Strong in Banking, but Divergence Is Pronounced: Yapı Kredi (YKBNK) gives a BUY signal in the short and medium term, and the general scan note is also positioned as BUY. In the stock that gets a STRONG BUY vote on the oscillators, RSI at 54.86 is in the neutral zone while StochK at 80.29 signals high momentum; CCI20 at 80.91 shows that buying pressure continues. Garanti BBVA (GARAN), on the other hand, gets a STRONG BUY vote on the oscillators but is NEUTRAL in the general scan; StochK reaching 88.04 indicates that the overbought zone is being approached in the short term. The low ADX values in both stocks (15.1 in YKBNK; 17.82 in GARAN) confirm that trend strength is limited and the rise is momentum-driven. In contrast, Akbank (AKBNK) carries a SELL note in the general scan; ADX rising to 28.8 shows the current downtrend is strengthening, while RSI staying at 47.57 shows selling pressure has not yet reached the oversold zone.

Channel Breaks Stand Out in Aviation and Holdings (Havacılık ve Holdinglerde Kanal Kırılımı Öne Çıkıyor): TAV Havalimanları (TAVHL) is trading above the channel at107% with a daily gain of4.47%; this level indicates that the price has moved above the current channel. The stock takes the STRONG BUY vote in the oscillators with a strong RSI of 63.68 that is not yet overbought; CCI20 reaching 177.64 shows intensifying short-term buying pressure. Sabancı Holding (SAHOL) draws attention with a daily gain of4.27%, while its ADX of 37.64, one of the highest trend strength readings, supports the view that the rise is trend-driven rather than momentum-driven. However, with the overall scan rating of SAHOL at SELL, the medium and long-term outlook remains weak and this move should be evaluated as a short-term reaction.

Oversold Conditions in Stocks in the STRONG SELL Zone (Güçlü SAT Bölgesindeki Hisselerde Aşırı Satım Koşulları): Despite the strong buying wave in the index, many stocks carry a STRONG SELL signal and the oscillators point to oversold zones. Türk Hava Yolları (THYAO) is approaching the oversold zone with an RSI of 39.25, while an ADX of 38.13 shows the downtrend is strong; similarly, Migros (MGROS) with an RSI of 33.22 and an ADX of 42.28 is both oversold and in a strong downtrend. Ford Otosan (FROTO) with an RSI of 32.62, Tofaş (TOASO) with an RSI of 33.26 and Astor Enerji (ASTOR) with an RSI of 30.10 are in the oversold zone; however, although the StochK values in these stocks (9.64; 12.02; 9.81 respectively) are trading quite low, raising the possibility of a technical rebound in the short term, the ADX values preserve the risk of the trend continuing downward.

Risk of a Technical Reaction in Oversold: Aselsan (ASELS) delivers the highest return in the index with6.36% on the day, yet it carries a STRONG SELL (GÜÇLÜ SAT) note in the overall scan. RSI staying at 44.53 and ADX at 32.06 pointing to a strong downtrend make it more likely that this rise is a short-term reaction move. The same applies to BİM (BIMAS), whose RSI of 40.89 is close to oversold, and Tüpraş (TUPRS), whose RSI of 39.42 has entered the oversold zone; CCI20 values of -147.06 and -183.13 respectively in both stocks show the intensity of selling pressure. Current price moves in these stocks should be read as technical reactions within a strong downtrend; before opening a new long position, RSI and StochK are expected to exit the oversold zone and ADX to weaken.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

Liquidity and Balance Sheet Structure: The current asset sizes in the dataset clearly bring out the balance sheet scale advantage of holding and banking focused companies. KCHOL at 14.677 billion TL and SAHOL at 14.677 billion TL have the highest current asset levels; this is consistent with the weight these holdings create in the index in terms of market value and trading volume. Although current asset data is not directly available for banking stocks (YKBNK, GARAN), the STRONG BUY signals and momentum indicators in the technical section of the report are consistent with the fundamental analysis finding that these stocks stand out in terms of profitability and valuation. The current assets of THYAO at 512.19 billion TL and TUPRS at 439.48 billion TL confirm the size of their operational scale; the fact that these two stocks give SELL signals on the technical side shows that a large balance sheet alone is not a reason to buy.

Sector Comparison and Ratio-Based Assessment: Since short-term liability data is unavailable, the current ratio or liquidity ratio cannot be calculated directly from current asset data, so no direct ratio comparison is possible. However, in absolute size terms, the gap between BIMAS (152.41 billion TL) and MGROS (88.38 billion TL) in the retail sector is striking; MGROS's current assets at about58% of BIMAS's reflect the difference in operating scale. Technically, the STRONG SELL signal for MGROS indicates that this scale difference is being priced in negatively. On the aviation side, TAVHL's current assets of 47.61 billion TL are well below THYAO's 512.19 billion TL; however, TAVHL's daily premium of4.47% and trading above its channel show that the market is pricing growth potential independently of balance sheet size.

Weak Outlook and Risky Areas: SASA (42.00 billion TL) and ASTOR (47.91 billion TL) rank in the lower part of the index in terms of current asset size. The overall plan of the report states that these two stocks show weak 60-day performance; when assessed together with the low liquidity buffer, this points to these stocks being more fragile against market fluctuations. On the energy and chemicals side, TUPRS receiving a technical SELL signal despite 439.48 billion TL in current assets suggests that sectoral margin pressure cannot be offset by balance sheet size. Similarly, PETKM's 41.74 billion TL in current assets stays below the sector average; this can be read as the weakness on the profitability side also being reflected in the balance sheet structure.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

Risk Management and Scenarios

The index's3.20% jump from 14.221.62 to 14.676.53 has turned the short-term outlook positive. In the upside scenario, if it holds above 14.676.53, the next psychological resistance at 15.000 could be targeted. The sustainability of this move depends particularly on the preservation of momentum in banking stocks (Yapı Kredi, Garanti BBVA) and on TAV Havalimanları holding above the channel (107%). In the downside scenario, however, the index risks retesting the 14.221.62 support. In that case, the selling pressure from the many stocks with a STRONG SELL signal (MGROS, FROTO, SISE, THYAO) could deepen and the index could give back its gains. In particular, the oversold conditions in stocks such as Tüpraş (39.42) and Türk Hava Yolları (39.25), where RSI values are below 40, may trigger short-term rebound buying; however, the overall STRONG SELL signals in these stocks should be assessed as a technical correction rather than a lasting recovery.

As a portfolio protection shield, given that the current positive divergence is concentrated in the banking and aviation sectors, it is recommended to maintain the weights in these sectors but tighten the stop-loss levels. In stocks such as Yapı Kredi and Garanti BBVA that give WT=AL and STRONG BUY signals on the oscillators, the 20-day moving averages can be monitored as a reference level to gradually reduce positions in case of a possible pullback. On the other hand, in stocks such as Sasa Polyester (31.8% decline) and Astor Enerji (39.5% decline) that carry STRONG SELL signals and show quite weak 60-day performance, the priority step should be to limit the risk of the existing positions being converted into liquidity if the index falls below the 14.676.53 level. Increasing the cash ratio in the scenario where the index cannot test the 15.000 resistance and retreats below 14.500 will increase the resilience of the portfolio against volatility.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

The model portfolio is built only from stocks that generate a BUY or STRONG BUY signal, based on today's technical scan and oscillator data. Considering signal strength, 60-day performance and channel position together, the banking stocks (YKBNK, GARAN) and TAVHL stand out both in short-term momentum and in trend strength. While SAHOL shows strong trend resilience with ADX=37.64, ASELS has been included in the portfolio with a low weight and only as a short-term bounce buy, because its overall picture is weak despite a daily return of6.36%. Weights have been set by taking signal clarity and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) in the data set into account; a higher weight has been given to stocks with a positive and high r value.