Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of November 3, 2026, at 07:26 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 13.696.64; previous close 13.419.68 (daily +2.06%); dollar-based daily performance +2.01%. The index's TL-based return is approximately 5 basis points above the dollar-based return; this difference stems from USD/TRY remaining almost flat at +0.05% daily. The extremely limited currency movement indicates that the recovery following yesterday's sharp 3.88% drop is largely driven by local risk appetite; for foreign investors, the dollar-based return tracking close to the TL return creates no additional currency-driven erosion.

This table forms the first link of the transmission mechanism: low currency volatility strengthens expectations that cost pressure will not rise in the short term for sectors with high import input, while preserving returns on TL assets. However, recalling that banking and holding stocks stood out with "STRONG SELL" signals in yesterday's selling wave, today's 2.06% rise is assessed as a reaction buying targeting oversold stocks rather than a broad-based trend reversal. Especially GUBRF' 's 9.99% rise and THYAO' despite the 7.76% premium, oscillators still being in sell territory confirms that this rally retains a technical correction nature. Under these conditions, the index's close at 13.696.64 can be read as a test just below the 13.700 resistance; if this resistance is broken, part of yesterday's losses could be recovered, but the current signal distribution keeps this scenario within probability, not certainty.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

Macro Outlook and News Flow

Yesterday's market focus was the slight easing in global liquidity conditions as the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.69% and DXY pulled back to 101.79; this environment allowed XU030's dollar-based +2.01% return to outpace its TL return (1.88%). The CBRT policy rate holding at 36.0% and real rates remaining in positive territory (September CPI annual 27.38%) confirm the slowdown in credit growth (annual 35.29%, previous 36.32%) and the rise in real credit costs; this separates the banking index's (ISCTR +5.75%, VAKBN " STRONG SELL") fundamental outlook under net interest margin (NIM) pressure from technical reaction buying. If US core PCE (annual 3.1%) and CPI (annual 3.7%) data suffice to keep the Fed's 4.0% policy rate for an extended period, this decline in DXY could reverse and prematurely end the rally in XU030.

In domestic data, the October Manufacturing PMI falling to 47.3 (previous 47.9) and industrial production at -1.0% monthly (annual -1.86%) in August show that demand-side weakness is spilling into production; this explains why energy-heavy stocks like TUPRS andPETKM with "NEUTRAL/SELL" signals, and TCELL' which is on the agenda with the TOGG share transfer news, move based on macro cycle fragility rather than fundamental dynamics. On the currency side, USD/TRY remaining almost flat at 49.99 (change +0.09%) and central bank reserves declining to 59,045 billion dollars (previous 62,148) indicate that the controlled course in the FX market continues; however, the current account deficit turning to a 4,053 billion dollar surplus in August data (previous 0,036 billion dollars) suggests that in import-input-cost sectors (OTOSAN, FROTO) signals that margin protection is becoming harder. If USD/TRY breaks above the 50.00-50.10 band, margin compression in import-dependent industry could invalidate "BUY THE DIP" signals (GUBRF, ENKAI) may invalidate.

In the news flow, the sharp correction in oil prices (Brent -11.40%, 104.23 USD/barrel; WTI -7.55%, 96.26 USD/barrel) and gold's rise to 3.956.60 USD per ounce (+1.48%) could pull inflation expectations lower; this could strengthen the probability of a rate cut by the CBRT at the December meeting (still early in market pricing). However, with the Iran-Qeshm Island airstrike and Russia-Ukraine nuclear alert headlines pushing the VIX to 21.15 (+8.91%), geopolitical risk premium is not yet fully priced in; this creates a contradiction between technical indicators and underlying risk perception in defense industry (ASELS Q3 profit above expectations, WT "SELL") and aviation (THYAO +7.76%, PGSUS +% 6.26) stocks. If Brent falls below 100 USD and geopolitical tensions ease, inflation pressure could soften, bringing the rate cut timeline forward; in that scenario, banking and holding stocks (SAHOL, KCHOL) " could exit "STRONG SELL" votes and revert to early-cycle stocks.

In summary; today's difference from yesterday is the gap opening between a slight improvement in global risk appetite (VIX, DXY, US Treasuries) and local macro weakness (PMI, Industrial Production, Credit Growth); investor psychology leans toward positioning on "buy the dip" technical signals (WT "BUY THE DIP" widespread) but fundamental data signals "selling pressure" (General WT "SELL"). This contradiction justifies positioning in selective stocks like ENKAI ( channel 62%, WT "BUY") and ISCTR ( 60-day loss -0.3%), while avoiding those with fundamental deterioration like ASTOR (-% 49.8 60-day) and SASA ( RSI 26). If XU030 fails to break the 13.700 resistance on volume and the US 10-year yield closes above 4.75%, the current rebound could complete as a "bull trap."

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

Technical Analysis — Featured Stocks

Despite the strong broad buying wave in today's trading session, the majority of technical signals remain on the sell side. In the screening data, the general signal for all 30 stocks is "SELL" or "STRONG SELL," while only ENKAI andASELS has a WT signal of "BUY." These two stocks also diverge in channel position: ENKAI trades at 62% of the channel, while ASELS trades at 54%. In contrast, stocks showing the sharpest rise today, such as GUBRF (% 9.99) and THYAO (% 7.76), still have WT signals at "BUY THE DIP" level; this positions the current rally as a technical correction. GUBRF' shows a very narrow channel width of only 10%, while the RSI at 29.42 is in oversold territory; however, the MACD remains deeply negative at -43.64.

In the aviation sector, THYAO andPGSUS, stand out as the two leading stocks in today's trading volume.THYAO' While ADX is measured at a high trend strength level of 50.3, all oscillators point to the sell side: RSI 42.11, StochK 17.67, and CCI20 -85.99. PGSUS' A similar picture exists there as well; strong trend with ADX 48.87, combined with weak momentum from RSI 36.28 and StochK 16.51. In both stocks, the WT signal being "BUY AT BOTTOM" indicates that short-term rebound buying may continue; however, channel positions (THYAO 38%, PGSUS % 28) and 60-day losses (-14.8% and -20.4%, respectively) show that this move is not yet a trend reversal. TAVHL Despite a 4.80% rise, the WT signal is in "SELL" position and CCI20 is in the oversold zone at -136.35; in this stock, weak momentum with StochK 12.96 and low trend strength with ADX 17.6 stand out.

Among banking stocks, ISCTR, % shows the strongest daily performance in the sector with a 5.75% increase, while its 60-day loss remains limited at -0.3%. However, the WT signal is "SELL" and the overall signal is in "STRONG SELL" position; RSI is neutral at 45.21, with weak momentum from StochK 23.49 and CCI20 -102.19. AKBNK % closed the day with a 3.94% rise, under selling pressure with strong trend from ADX 38.12, RSI 40.26, and StochK 22.73. VAKBN' there, the WT signal is "SELL" and the channel position moves in a narrow band at 4%; RSI is near oversold at 36.7. The overall signal being "STRONG SELL" across the entire banking group shows that today's rise lacks volume and momentum support.

Among negatively diverging stocks, ASTOR, stands out with a daily decline of -3.71%. Despite the WT signal giving "BUY", the 60-day loss of -49.8% is one of the weakest performances in the index; selling pressure continues with RSI 35.43 and MACD -22.15. ASELS closed the day on the negative side with -1.37%, while the WT signal is "BUY" and the channel position is relatively strong at 54%; however, in the oscillator votes, there are only 4 buy signals against 16 sell signals. TUPRS -% diverges negatively in the energy group with a 1.89% decline, while the channel position is in a narrow band at 1% and CCI20 is in deep oversold territory at -160.59; its 60-day change remains positive at +6.0%.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

Fundamental Analysis — Company Assessment

Looking at balance sheet sizes, the sectoral weight of holdings and banks clearly stands out. KCHOL' s current assets of 3.615.15 billion TL form the index's most liquid balance sheet, while SAHOL ranks second with 2.790.07 billion TL. The total current assets of these two holdings point to a size well above the total of all other companies in the index. However, the "STRONG SELL" signals in the report's overall theme show that these large balance sheets are under valuation pressure in the short term; abundant liquidity does not directly reflect in price performance.

On the operational liquidity side, THYAO With 512.19 billion TL and TUPRS stands out with 439.48 billion TL in current assets. THYAO' s daily rise of 7.76% indicates that the balance sheet size supported by strong volume is partially priced in by the market. In contrast, TUPRS' s negative divergence in the energy sector shows that a large balance sheet does not provide protection against margin pressure. In banking, despite ISCTR' s 5.75% premium, its limited 60-day loss (0.3%) can be interpreted as a relatively solid balance sheet structure; however, VAKBN andISCTR' The "STRONG SELL" votes toward it confirm that valuation pressure persists across the sector.

The divergence is more pronounced in small and medium-sized balance sheets. GUBRF' Its 48.99 billion TL current assets form the fundamental basis behind the sharp 9.99% rise; the reaction buying from the oversold zone has supported the price movement even though the balance sheet size is relatively modest. ASTOR' Despite its 47.91 billion TL current assets, its 60-day loss reaching 49.8% shows that the balance sheet scale was not enough to stop the price decline. SASA' Its 42.00 billion TL current assets and deepening oversold condition with RSI at 26 paint a picture where fundamental indicators are inconsistent with technical signals; this reveals that balance sheet size alone does not provide a margin of safety.

The negative divergence in the defense and energy sectors points to price pressure independent of balance sheet structures. ASELS' Its 281.30 billion TL current assets, despite being the index's largest defense balance sheet, are not positively reflected in price performance. EREGL' Its 269.67 billion TL current assets and channel width being in negative territory at 13% show that weak demand in the steel sector overshadows the balance sheet size. ENKAI' Its 248.56 billion TL current assets and the WT signal being "BUY" stand out as one of the rare examples where fundamental size and technical signal are aligned; the channel position at 62% suggests that balance sheet support is partially reflected in the price.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

Main Scenario (Short-Term Reaction Buying): The rise of BIST 30 to 13.696.64 on November 3, 2026, with a 2.06% increase, is being evaluated as a technical correction despite the "STRONG SELL" signals in the overall picture. In this scenario, for stocks in the oversold zone (GUBRF RSI 29.42; SASA With RSI at 26.10, it is expected that bargain buying will continue in the short term and the index will test the 13.700 resistance zone. However, this move should not be interpreted as a permanent trend reversal; because the "SELL" or "STRONG SELL" signals in all 30 stocks indicate that the current rally lacks volume and momentum support. Therefore, existing long positions in the portfolio should be maintained, but new additions should only be made in stocks with a WT signal of "BUY" ENKAI and relatively strong ISCTR it is recommended to be limited to stocks such as these.

Alternative Scenario (Deepening of Selling Pressure): If oversold conditions in oscillators deepen further, especially in SASA ( RSI 26.10) and EREGL ( RSI 28.43) such weak-looking stocks, selling pressure may increase. The trigger for this scenario would be a high-volume breakdown of the index below 13.696.64, especially toward the 13.400-13.200 band. In such a case, portfolio risk is high due to "STRONG SELL" signals in banking stocks (VAKBN, ISCTR, YKBNK) " therefore, to hedge against this scenario, the cash ratio in the portfolio should be increased and ASTOR such as the high-risk stock with a 60-day loss of -49.8% should be exited. Although the calm course of the exchange rate (USD/TRY 49.99, daily +0.05%) provides a short-term buffer for TL assets, a deterioration in this situation (a notable rise in the exchange rate) could increase cost pressure in import-heavy sectors and accelerate selling. Therefore, to protect the portfolio, keeping the cash/liquidity ratio at approximately 20-25% of the total will provide the flexibility to create buying opportunities in a possible decline scenario.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

The model portfolio, in an environment where the general market structure is dominated by "STRONG SELL" signals, has focused on symbols that carry technical correction potential and react with volume in oversold zones. With the Wave Trend giving a "BUY" signal, ENKAI and one that relatively maintains its 60-day performance ISCTR When building a core position; showing oversold at the channel bottom (10%) and RSI at 29 level GUBRF with strong ADX (50.3) and attempting a bottom with volume THYAO has been added as a cautious addition candidate. The cash position provides a buffer against the risk of continued selling pressure in the oscillators.